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Author Topic: You have a choice if you control pre-fork bitcoins!  (Read 1496 times)
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July 30, 2016, 10:07:29 PM

^^^I agree with Franky1
I would be very surprised to see any coin fork and have both sides still exist.
I feel like 99% of the time one will die out slowly over a couple months.
I guess we will have to watch and see what happens with Etherium.

ethereum forks are only surviving due to lack of utility to pressurize users to pick one. for bitcoin that choice is simple,
speed of confirmations
tx fee war
merchant acceptance
hash power security

those 4 reasons in that order, are what will drive bitcoins choice to happen much faster.

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July 30, 2016, 10:33:40 PM

ethereum forks are only surviving due to lack of utility to pressurize users to pick one.

There are a lot of Bitcoin long term holders. They dont need to pick side and move the coin, they just can keep the coin sitting in cold wallet and let the worse fork die out. No risk whatsoever for long term holders. But in short term there might be some problems/price changes, but after a while things return to normal. Not much different from times when Bitcoin dropped 1/4 of value in one day - things stabilize itselves after a while.

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July 30, 2016, 11:04:32 PM

but if there is 90% of hash power on one fork.. then those blocks are created at similar speeds as normal, yet the 10% hash is only making one block every couple hours for 2 weeks

if you think that it will speed up and be reasonably fast quite quickly. you would be wrong. following the 2 weeks of 1 block every couples hours it would  then be 1 block every hour and xx minutes for 2 weeks, and slowly get shorter each fortnight. after about 6 months the difficulty will be low enough to be fast block creation,, but at a cost of weak security that can easily be 51% attacked.

If hash rate was 10%, then difficulty adjustment will be similarly affected. It will not happen in 2 weeks.
The first difficulty adjustment could take months to reach (4 months+? if difficulty had changed just before hard fork)

Or, if hard fork happened just before difficulty adjustment, it would then be sooner.
However, then the next difficulty will not decrease as much as it would have if it had taken the 4 months of 10% hashing power.
So then the next difficulty period will stay more difficult and will take longer to complete.

It would be nothing like ETH.
It would clearly be the losing chain.

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