If bitcoin bubbles again, Chinese exchanges will have problems

[ajareselde]

OK, i understand that, but if the rally is big enough, it's just a matter of time when they would be left without funds to cover withdrawals, and what then?
Claim to be hacked like gox did ?

Say that they are reducing withdrawal limits because the price is high for security reasons. Then use all the money they have and can borrow to sell and try to pop the bubble. New money will be coming in quickly during a bubble.

Reducing withdrawal limit is an ovbious red flag and they would loose customers soon enough. And regarding the other part u said, i believe you have it other way around; in the bubble, it's not the
fiat they will be in need of, but rather bitcoins. They can borrow, correct, but that has its limits, and is (should be) highly regulated, but in the end; wouldn't they just raise the price on other exchanges?

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[jehst]

OK, i understand that, but if the rally is big enough, it's just a matter of time when they would be left without funds to cover withdrawals, and what then?
Claim to be hacked like gox did ?

Say that they are reducing withdrawal limits because the price is high for security reasons. Then use all the money they have and can borrow to sell and try to pop the bubble. New money will be coming in quickly during a bubble.

Reducing withdrawal limit is an ovbious red flag and they would loose customers soon enough. And regarding the other part u said, i believe you have it other way around; in the bubble, it's not the
fiat they will be in need of, but rather bitcoins. They can borrow, correct, but that has its limits, and is (should be) highly regulated, but in the end; wouldn't they just raise the price on other exchanges?

There are situations where a big enough bubble could just bankrupt them before they could pop the bubble. They would collapse.

But these days we have low volume. It's easy to control the price if you have a big enough cartel.

[pooya87]

they have to eventually adapt to the changes, bitcoin bubble is inevitable. so they have to find a way to cope with it.
but the fact that China's top three exchanges made a pact to keep bitcoin from bubbling, looks a bit hard in my opinion. if the bubble is going to happen they might not be able to prevent it.

[knowhow]

well they cant avoid it is a comunnity interest that affects it soo it may come stronger then before but they will keep above the problems they have funds .... they earn a good money daily with each trade sure not to get them bilionaire from day to night but for sure they have reserves to hold pression

[Amph]

From the point of view of Chinese exchanges, bubbles are a bad thing. If a bubble develops, the government will come back in and start shutting things down.  What if China's top three exchanges made a pact to keep bitcoin from bubbling? They would have nice, calm business for years. This is my conspiracy theory. They can short bitcoin, engaging in stop hunting with phantom coins to take money from heavily leveraged buyers. At the same time, they contain any major rallies so they don't catch heat from their government. At the same time, miners are selling coins everyday anyway, so the default pressure is down.

this could explain why they are faking some volume, in their exchange, to bring new investors and raise their income with leverage

they have to eventually adapt to the changes, bitcoin bubble is inevitable. so they have to find a way to cope with it.
but the fact that China's top three exchanges made a pact to keep bitcoin from bubbling, looks a bit hard in my opinion. if the bubble is going to happen they might not be able to prevent it.

and it's not like they control a bubble either, the max they can't do is dumping their 1800 coins per day, which hardly will stop any reall bubble which might take place in the future

[not altcoin hitler]

The Chinese government does not like speculative bubbles. They are currently issuing warnings about the stock market. They are restricting lending. They are telling people not to sell any property to buy stocks. To the Chinese government, speculative bubbles cause chaos and disorder and may ruin people's lives. That in turn threatens the government's position. We saw how the Chinese government began to warn and freeze bank accounts in 2013 when bitcoin was bubbling.

From the point of view of Chinese exchanges, bubbles are a bad thing. If a bubble develops, the government will come back in and start shutting things down.  What if China's top three exchanges made a pact to keep bitcoin from bubbling? They would have nice, calm business for years. This is my conspiracy theory. They can short bitcoin, engaging in stop hunting with phantom coins to take money from heavily leveraged buyers. At the same time, they contain any major rallies so they don't catch heat from their government. At the same time, miners are selling coins everyday anyway, so the default pressure is down.

Only an absolutely enormous bullwhale who keeps buying and withdrawing coins could possibly expose such a plan. And I don't think we have a bullwhale like that.

Great theory, OP

But you  know what will happen? Alts will bubble instead.

[BitofaN1]

Even if they could stop a bubble in its initial stage, arbitrage should take care of that price fixing quite easily.
And with a great number of people withdrawing and rushing to other exchanges to sell, sh_t will surely hit the proverbial fan immediately.

[randy8777]

Even if they could stop a bubble in its initial stage, arbitrage should take care of that price fixing quite easily.
And with a great number of people withdrawing and rushing to other exchanges to sell, sh_t will surely hit the proverbial fan immediately.

like banks, as soon as they notice a huge influx of people cashing out, they will simply not allow any sort of cashout to prevent any more damage to happen.

[Eastwind]

A slow gradual climb is more healthy anyway.

Slow rise in response to adoption is good for BTC.

[knowhow]

the thing is east bitcoin makes all coins worth less as he gain interest but as it loose it well,altcoins jump i remember a coin worthing x ammount of bitcoins and after bitcoins went down to the current rate the altcoin followed the loss as well....

[panju1]

they have to eventually adapt to the changes, bitcoin bubble is inevitable. so they have to find a way to cope with it.
but the fact that China's top three exchanges made a pact to keep bitcoin from bubbling, looks a bit hard in my opinion. if the bubble is going to happen they might not be able to prevent it.

They would just increase the negative spin/newsflow if there are signs of a bubble. It is a good thing, mind you. People losing big money in Bitcoin by being greedy can't be good for the Bitcoin economy.

[Amph]

Even if they could stop a bubble in its initial stage, arbitrage should take care of that price fixing quite easily.
And with a great number of people withdrawing and rushing to other exchanges to sell, sh_t will surely hit the proverbial fan immediately.

like banks, as soon as they notice a huge influx of people cashing out, they will simply not allow any sort of cashout to prevent any more damage to happen.

it could explain why they were aiming at banning bitcoin before, when there was that huge bubble, and then they changed their mind, when the bubble started to fall

[knowhow]

well people does panic too fast always with some bad news ,when bitcoin dropped from 300 do 200 people started to sell several bitcoins...

[lunarboy]

Chinese stocks are up 150% on a 1YR return... They don't seem very good at preventing bubbles, if indeed they are even trying?

[gentlemand]

Chinese stocks are up 150% on a 1YR return... They don't seem very good at preventing bubbles, if indeed they are even trying?

A stock offers zero threat to the status quo. Crypto has the potential to completely ravage government plans.

[lunarboy]

Chinese stocks are up 150% on a 1YR return... They don't seem very good at preventing bubbles, if indeed they are even trying?

A stock offers zero threat to the status quo. Crypto has the potential to completely ravage government plans.

The OP is about speculative bubbles not the difference between crypto and Stocks.

[gentlemand]

The OP is about speculative bubbles not the difference between crypto and Stocks.

I would've thought crypto is a subject of political interest to the Chinese government unlike any stock. Having said that they obviously aren't keen on any type of bubble.

If you look at what happened to their property markets, they're obviously not too great at preventing them. Looks like the Chinese love a good bubble wherever they can find it.

[mrhelpful]

well we wouldnt know which are legit volumes, no one can tell.

But, if the price jumps like $200 that it might be a sign of manipulation.. if you havent heard something good events I suppose.

[knowhow]

the thing of bubles is very easy,they will happen always and yes if bitcoin price jumps around 200 dollars from no where sure is a kind of manipulation... but im sure is very hard to manipulate bitcoin there is a big ammount to invest on it and wont last one day since some tradees will take down the orders easy

[harkonnen]

TIL Chinese government care about its people.

LOL. But that's true as long as people behave like caged cattles.