Bitcoin: Should you stay or should you go?

[BruceSwanson]

Without a defining killer app, I am confident that Bitcoin will, in fits and starts, inevitably return to its 2009 levels. It would be pointless to guess how long that process will take; or when that killer app will appear although I am also confident it will appear at some entirely unpredictable point.

I'm easily old enough to remember the very early days of personal computers. I remember a story from The Wall Street Journal in which a reporter interviewed a small-business owner (I think an auto-repair shop) who had bought an Apple II. The reporter asked the man what he thought of his purchase. The man stared glumly at the Apple for a moment and then sourly commented: "The damn thing just sits there."

Exactly. The world was just never going to buy into a command-prompt environment in a really big way. But the Mac came along and then the world began to change. (Be like the Mac! Bill Gates commanded his troops developing Windows 95.) And so it will be with Bitcoin. The world will never buy into it until an environment comes along that makes it easier, safer, and a lot more fun to use. Until then, the price will suffer periodic whale-dumps and then sort of bounce, spurt, and finally just roll along long enough for people to start talking (again) about "Bitcoin's recent price stability." And then yet another whale-dump will splash the water and the retroactively obvious cycle will begin again.

If you decide to go, then you will miss out on the killer app that will send Bitcoin to the moon and beyond. If you decide to stay, then you will watch the value of your stash just ebb away before your eyes. That choice defines your control.

As for me, for now I'm going to stay. But I've got Coinbase and can go in a second. That could happen at any time too.

[Comment added June 23, 2015:

My conclusion: stay. The blockchain itself will be the killer app upon which all other apps and bitcoins' fiat value will depend.]

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[melody82]

Yeah I see what you are saying.  I think the first step is to simplify the exchange process.  I had to read up on how to buy bitcoins and tbh it was a total pain to get some.  If you could just buy them direct from a bank account in stead of having to wait a week or pay a hefty transfer fee then that would go a long way to better adoption.  That will be the first barrier to cross.  The second will be transaction speed.  The average person does not want to wait so long for a transaction to go through.  They are used to credit cards and instant money.  Third there needs to be some advantage that bitcoins have.  Why would the average person use bitcoins in stead of dollars?  If I get ripped off using my CC then I just call them and have the transaction reversed.  BTC has no such thing.  It needs to have an advantage for the average person and not just us.

[Amph]

as long as would return to its value afterward, i'm not so concerned to return back to bitcoin's root, i will simply buy more, it would be the second train that everyone was waiting

but i still doubt we will see something like 1 usd for bitcoin ever again, it can't happen because of miners, they control the network and the price too for some extend

[Kakmakr]

Well, for those who wants to leave, I say GOOD LUCK and make sure you sell your coins at discount prices.
I for one will enjoy the rodeo ride and buy as many of those coins as my fiat budget would allow.
Bitcoin is the killer APP for me. ^Hint hint^

[boopy265420]

I don't think so that the Bitcoin ever will return to its starting point.Bitcoin is just to go further and further by large adoption.People who do not believe in Bitcoin they never did and never will do but who are open minded to embrace the innovative techs always welcome and support any tech.Bitcoin will make it way by itself in spite of all the issues related to its tech.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

as long as would return to its value afterward, i'm not so concerned to return back to bitcoin's root, i will simply buy more, it would be the second train that everyone was waiting

but i still doubt we will see something like 1 usd for bitcoin ever again, it can't happen because of miners, they control the network and the price too for some extend

That's what we're all waiting for my friend - that second train.
None of us would be here if we didn't think it was possible, my bags are already packed, I've got a stash that I HODL, I'm at the platform & I'm ready to go - the train hasn't arrived yet though.......

I do think it's only a matter of time, how long I don't know but I do believe we'll enter another bubble at the very least that'll give us a new ATH.
There are a lot of things in the pipeline that could have a positive effect on the price - NY Bitlicense, COIN ETF, Gemini Exchange, plus obviously continued mainstream adoption.

I also believe the next halving & the one after that will give us a big price jump due to the amount of coins available for purchase diminshing.
Unsure about a killer app as such but I do believe that those of us who are ready will enjoy new wealth once the wheels of bitcoin begin to move again.

[amiryaqot]

BTCitcoin has no fear these kind of trolls or FUD as i think at the moment bitcoin is way ahead from it's starting point with largest adoption and huge merchant acceptance worldwide and this is on the way of solid progress with public awareness through it so who think they can get cheap coin by these kind tricks they are totally wrong.

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

I somewhat agree. Just like the world wasn't ready for personal computers, the world isn't ready for Bitcoin just yet, but when it is, you'll regret not having a bunch of them.

[turvarya]

Yeah I see what you are saying.  I think the first step is to simplify the exchange process.  I had to read up on how to buy bitcoins and tbh it was a total pain to get some.  If you could just buy them direct from a bank account in stead of having to wait a week or pay a hefty transfer fee then that would go a long way to better adoption.  That will be the first barrier to cross.  The second will be transaction speed.  The average person does not want to wait so long for a transaction to go through.  They are used to credit cards and instant money.  Third there needs to be some advantage that bitcoins have.  Why would the average person use bitcoins in stead of dollars?  If I get ripped off using my CC then I just call them and have the transaction reversed.  BTC has no such thing.  It needs to have an advantage for the average person and not just us.

1. Making an account at an exchange is most times easier than making an account in a bank. The only difference is, that people already have a bank account for a long time.
2. Transactions are instant. Did you ever buy something with Bitcoin? I don't think so. For me it always takes less than 2 seconds.
3. Sure, reversing transactions seem like a good idea, until somebody reverses the transaction made to you. That happens all the time.

[Q7]

Not sure what type of killer app you are referring to but using bitcoin nowadays doesn't mean you will need a rocket scientist to figure that out. Even for security those who already know how to use online banking should know as well how all these work. I don't know if it will get easier than what it is today but definitely I don't see it becoming an obstacle.

[unamis76]

Just like you say about the Apple computers in the early days, the tools were there, but nobody really saw an usage... We have to give it time and develop Bitcoin further.

Something to ponder about when thinking if one should stay or go is the Blockchain technology itself, not only Bitcoin. The Blockchain tech is even bigger than Bitcoin, I think, and it could easily reach bigger proportions than the coin itself (although if it does, the coin will go through the roof too, probably, as both are tied together)

Summing it all up, it's time to stay

[pooya87]

as bitcoin is accepted and be used by more and more people and revenues, there you have your killer app. before that and until people are seeing bitcoin as a get rich quick scheme and start buying without any research, it is not gonna happen.

and it is the same scenario about the price if bitcoin is distributed more evenly the whales power to change the market price will be diminished and we will see a more stable price that will lead to better acceptance IMO.

[BruceSwanson]

Just like you say about the Apple computers in the early days, the tools were there, but nobody really saw an usage... We have to give it time and develop Bitcoin further.

Something to ponder about when thinking if one should stay or go is the Blockchain technology itself, not only Bitcoin. The Blockchain tech is even bigger than Bitcoin, I think, and it could easily reach bigger proportions than the coin itself (although if it does, the coin will go through the roof too, probably, as both are tied together)

Summing it all up, it's time to stay

Good point about the blockchain. It's here to stay and I think it will first be used in a big way by institutions. Such use will be transparent to their customers -- banks using it to transfer funds, etc. And institutions will probably be the first to use blockchain-based smart contracts too, again transparently (rental cars that won't start and doors that won't unlock absent a payment, etc.). But I have my doubts that institutions will increase the fiat value of bitcoins because their holdings will be for immediate transactions only with instantaneous conversion back to fiat. Lots of transactions, but nothing like what would happen if everyone jumped on board like they did with the Mac and Windows. (Employees were probably the greatest users of DOS apps.) And don't forget that bitcoins can be subdivided down to Satoshis. That is a lot of built-in capacity.

Bitcoin will have to swamp the world like the Mac, Windows, and the Web did. How will it do that and when? As of this instant, nobody knows. But I am going to guess that bitcoin and smart contracts will revolutionize gambling, particularly lotteries, allowing people to earn tickets doing bits and pieces of typing work -- word processing, translations, etc. Those needing the work done will fund the project/lottery.

My guess.   

[pissedoff]

Anyone with less than 200 Bitcoin might be best to sell all of it at the moment and maybe consider reentering after the dust settles.

not that I recommend that I don't see the reasoning but I also see that a lot of people are threating about selling their coins although I do just think this is attention whoring otherwise they would just do it.

if you have doubts then sell and minimise your losses its as simple as that anyoen who sees bitcoin as a quick rich scheme should just sell anyone who believes in the technology should think about it in depth and make their own decision or take precautions not to lose too much

[bornil267645]

The coins I have, all are earned free. So I have nothing to lose, only gain. So why should I leave when I can have plenty of fun in this community and especially in this forum...

[OrientA]

as long as would return to its value afterward, i'm not so concerned to return back to bitcoin's root, i will simply buy more, it would be the second train that everyone was waiting

but i still doubt we will see something like 1 usd for bitcoin ever again, it can't happen because of miners, they control the network and the price too for some extend

If you see 1 usd, then bitcoin is on its way to death.

[Unbelive]

Anyone with less than 200 Bitcoin might be best to sell all of it at the moment and maybe consider reentering after the dust settles.

not that I recommend that I don't see the reasoning but I also see that a lot of people are threating about selling their coins although I do just think this is attention whoring otherwise they would just do it.

if you have doubts then sell and minimise your losses its as simple as that anyoen who sees bitcoin as a quick rich scheme should just sell anyone who believes in the technology should think about it in depth and make their own decision or take precautions not to lose too much

Why only those with less then 200 Bitcoins? Why not also the ones who have more?  I think if your predictions are correct the ones with more then 200 Bitcoins will save more money this way.

[Amph]

as long as would return to its value afterward, i'm not so concerned to return back to bitcoin's root, i will simply buy more, it would be the second train that everyone was waiting

but i still doubt we will see something like 1 usd for bitcoin ever again, it can't happen because of miners, they control the network and the price too for some extend

If you see 1 usd, then bitcoin is on its way to death.

at that point it's dead by any means, anything below 10 is the death of bitcoin, actually i would say sub 100, miners can't sustain their business with such price...

[cellard]

Anyone with less than 200 Bitcoin might be best to sell all of it at the moment and maybe consider reentering after the dust settles.

not that I recommend that I don't see the reasoning but I also see that a lot of people are threating about selling their coins although I do just think this is attention whoring otherwise they would just do it.

if you have doubts then sell and minimise your losses its as simple as that anyoen who sees bitcoin as a quick rich scheme should just sell anyone who believes in the technology should think about it in depth and make their own decision or take precautions not to lose too much

Why only those with less then 200 Bitcoins? Why not also the ones who have more?  I think if your predictions are correct the ones with more then 200 Bitcoins will save more money this way.

It's a random ass number. No one that understands what all this is about would sell a single BTC. If you understand whats going on you'll see that this is no doomsday scenareo and nothing will happen. People is so confused and some devs are butthurt, thats all. At the end of the day, the bitcoin users will choose what they want, Core or XT by running nodes and mining.

[Alley]

The infrastructure is being built.  VC money coming in doesn't seem phased on downtrend.  First step for adoption in my opinion is people will be using bitcoin without knowing there using it.  Like circle will soon be transferring USD around the world but converting to btc for the actual trading process.  And we need to just give institutions more time to start using the block chain and colored coins like NASDAQ has hinted at. 

I'm very patient so I bought in with at least a 5 year hold plan.  Currently I think people getting out now are going to be sorry.  Sure I might feel different if price drops below $100.  But you really need the mentality of the people that had bitcoins in 2010 and forgot about them for 3 years.  Or you will go crazy looking at day to day price swings.