Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

Throwing all the Martin Armstrong related posts here, that kLee deleted from his PnF thread in the Speculation subforum. I think this commentary is too valuable to be lost from the public eye. Thanks to kLee for creating this extra work for me.



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PnF looks promising though.

huh 

Let kLee fool himself so he can learn the hard way, but I thought you were based in mathematical facts not superstitution.

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TPTB with all the respect to you and Armstrong can we keep this thread PnF related?

I will leave, but before I go I want to point out that PnF and other technical anal-sis, is useless. Quoting Armstrong's energy model points out why that is the case (thus on topic). I've helped you make some money which you desperately need given your illness.

Any way good luck, I will not post in your threads again.

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macgsa,

Here is more info on Armstrong's models. See for example the Energy Model which is claimed to be an improvement on one-dimensional oscillators or stochastic indicators.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models

P.S. Don't tell iCebreaker, he might blow a fuse.

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I will LMAO when we breach $300 and then stabilize above it never to see below again.

If we move significantly above $400, then you can LMAO with confidence. Otherwise, you are very likely to be the greater fool, based on Armstrong's thesis of public vs. private assets and the timing of the coming contagion in October as I explained upthread.

Remember capital flows chase capital flows, because of the wealth effect (i.e. the market price and thus market cap > the capital invested). Thus when the stampede is in a certain direction, capital follows there and out of where it was. Then you have to add the margin calls and leverage induced liquidity contagion that exacerbates the effect.

Has Armstrong specifically stated anything about future BTC predictions? That would've been a nice incentive for me to buy his "Socrates" S/W.

Afaik he makes only predictions regarding to gold. And Anonymint treats gold and bitcoins the same way, as private assets.

Afaik he has written about private assets as a class of assets, not only as gold. He has explained how the US stock market has apparently phased shifted and moved recently from being aligned with public assets to alignment with private assets, which is why it is moving into a low for October instead of a blowoff peak. Back in August 2012 when he predicted a doubling or tripling of the US stock market, he made it clear that this could either come before October or in 2017, depending on whether the stock market phased shifted or not. By now, he is reasonably certain it has phase shifted. The USD has also aligned with private assets for the period 2015.75 to 2017.95. After that 2017.95, all hell will break loose, pandemics, global war, etc.. and the USD is toast.

He has not written about Bitcoin except to say he hates cryptocurrency and thinks it is doomed. I dismiss this as myopia on his part because his global flows models can't pick up on such small caps and he hates it because he thinks all cryptocurrency is associated with the move to electronic money totalitarianism and he also looks at it as a false hope at odds with his "Solution Conference" solution (debt for equity swaps).

It is possible that Bitcoin is off in its own world and has no correlation to other private assets. I strongly doubt it.

The speculative ramps for Bitcoin in 2011 and 2013 correlated with those in gold and silver. Bitcoin has been aligning itself with private assets, just with more speculative volatility because it was such a small market cap.

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trading is so easy when we have a machine that predicts the future and you guys to translate its data thanks!

Yw, but remember one has to be cautious until the market has confirmed. Looks like we have confirmation now.

So many people saying I am insane or am on ignore. Hopefully insanely rich and peacefully ignored, lol.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34170

Each aspect of PRICE, TIME, and Pattern Recognition (Global Market Watch) is entirely independent. Therefore, we gave three levels on the Dow the 18500, 23000, and 32000/40000. When we introduce TIME, the first opportunity for a major high was 2015.75 and the three price targets would then come into play. So while the maximum objective would have been 32000/40,000 as early as 2015, we have been unable to get through the first target at 18500. Hence, if we saw a price advance to 23,000 with the TIME of the ECM (October 1, 2015), then we should expect a correction because we met both TIME and PRICE. Failing to reach that next threshold at 23,000 means the next TIME target becomes 2017. Exceeding 23,000 before TIME means you then go to the next target in PRICE, being the 32,000/40,000 area.

We identify time windows and for such targets; to form important highs or lows there MUST be the alignment of both TIME and PRICE unfolding often according to Pattern Recognition.

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http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33539

Silver is headed below $12 and gold below $1050.

Most likely bottoming below $9 and $850. The lowest possible for gold in the $600s.

We have a bounce here in BTC and PMs, then headed for lower lows, which means < $150 for BTC and probably double-digits  

It will be a blood bath.  

You've been warned. And I have not been wrong since I started following Armstrong some years ago.

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The model I used back in May to predict this current ramp:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33643

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kLee with such narrow bands you can easily get stopped out by volatility. If you want to be a day trader, you need Armstrong's entropy model to do it well. You'd be wise to pay for his services. If you can't afford, then stop day trading because you will end up losing.

As a small investor, you can HODL or you can bet on understanding Armstrong's model broadly.

I am placing good odds on a bounce to $315 and I am long. At $315 I will be short until we get that blood bath < $100. I have confidence in the model, because I understand why it is predicting this. And it makes sense from many different vantage points. For example, look at the poll of the expected prices for 2015. 36% think $1000+. So we still need a blood bath to wash out all the fools. The reason we are getting a rally here is because it is necessary to maximize the amount money the fools want to lose, as they will double-down and buy more and then HODL all the way down to the bottom. The chart you quoted which shows the rally after every multi-week period of low volatility is apropos.

Armstrong pointed out that June and July are the season of the year for gold (thus private assets such as Bitcoin) to rally.

The risk you are failing to attribute to gold is that you won't be able to find any where to sell it.

The government will close down all black markets when they move us to electronic money.

Black markets can only exist where the mainstream money is not trackable. Ponder that.

Your only chance to not lose all your wealth will be an anonymous crypto-currency. Remember I warned you and you didn't listen.

Why would someone who has anonymous crypto-currency want to trade it for gold wherein they risk their anonymity in a sting operation. Duh.

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I think Armstrong does sell different levels of access to his model. My vague understanding from his vague descriptions is that his stochastic model for day trading incorporates another dimension of structure that is hidden within the price data.

Apologies haven't replied to you on your  thread. Armstrong made some new posts about chaos this past week on his blog. Hope you have time to review them and quote from them to your thread for posterity. I don't have time.

Silver is headed below $12 and gold below $1050.

The reason for that is the strong Dollar.

No. You will see the private assets rise with the dollar after October.

The reason is because there is a mad rush into the short end of the bond curve in Europe as the contagion there develops into the BIG BANG in October (which btw has been predicting by Armstrong since 1985 when he first published his model's prediction!).

Understand that capital chases capital, because it heads where the prices are rising the fastest.

So this is sucking capital out of other assets.

Also during a contagion, the most liquid (not leveraged assets) are sold first.

This coming low in private assets is to set up their massive rise after the BIG BANG in October.

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The mad rush into short end of the yield curve for safe haven in bonds will be the peak of government Oct 2015 (i.e. public assets), which will be a low in private assets (i.e. stocks, gold, Bitcoin).

After that we in the crazy global sovereign debt collapse and private assets will rise like crazy.

For the moment we are having a seasonal summer bounce in private assets to suck in all the greater fools before the collapse into the low Oct 2015. Of course it is possible that this summer rally already peaked. I was thinking more to $315, but it doesn't have to be. I still think it will, to pull in more "Bitcoin to the mood types".

The WEC will be critical to surviving what comes next, not just a single day. The crazy period we face is 2015.75 into 2017.90.

We have been warning that we may see a Phase Transition in equities BEGIN with the 2015.75 and the FALSE MOVE. But this should be the PEAK in government – NOT the peak in markets outside of interest rates.

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The mad rush into short end of the yield curve for safe haven in bonds will be the peak of government Oct 2015 (i.e. public assets), which will be a low in private assets (i.e. stocks, gold, Bitcoin).

After that we in the crazy global sovereign debt collapse and private assets will rise like crazy.

For the moment we are having a seasonal summer bounce in private assets to suck in all the greater fools before the collapse into the low Oct 2015. Of course it is possible that this summer rally already peaked. I was thinking more to $315, but it doesn't have to be. I still think it will, to pull in more "Bitcoin to the mood types".

The WEC will be critical to surviving what comes next, not just a single day. The crazy period we face is 2015.75 into 2017.90.

We have been warning that we may see a Phase Transition in equities BEGIN with the 2015.75 and the FALSE MOVE. But this should be the PEAK in government – NOT the peak in markets outside of interest rates.

I am really curious how it will play out. Your point makes sense in my eyes, i am just not brave enough to sell my coins in hope to buy back significantly lower. These are very interesting times.

The best (safest) choice right now is to HODL and wait. I've no intention on moving even a tiny bit.

I will be selling every BTC I own if we hit $300. And doubling my BTC when I buy back below $150.

I can't promise that of course, but I've watched Armstrong's model over the years and it has always been correct (if you understand how time and price are orthogonal and you need to weigh other factors in the model). For example, it predicted the closing price for oil Dec. 31, 2014 at $54 back when oil was $100+ and no one was expecting the collapse.

There absolutely will be a mad stampede into the short-end of the yield curve in bonds in Europe as the debt contagion LIQUIDITY CRISIS over there is unleashed over the next few months. When the Europeans return from summer vacations, all hell is going to break out over there.

There are a lot of Europeans holding BTC and when they need to raise cash because of the liquidity crisis that will be caused by the contagion, they will sell what is liquid.

Must read:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33799

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33843

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33837

P.S. my resolve is aided also by the fact that I am working on an altcoin and think I will see a lot more upside there than I ever will with BTC, thus I my perspective on BTC is as more a savings account and not an investment (relatively speaking). This removes a lot of the "Bitcoin to the moon" emotion that clouds the rationality of others. They are too married to their investment.

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[TPTB_need_war]

I am looking forward to Armstrong's comments re Greece tomorrow and the near-future.

I think I understand this better than Armstrong does.

Perhaps the Troika will use the big stick of capital controls to induce the Greeks to vote for the Troika's bailout terms which contains a few carrots with more austerity.

The referendum is some sham to convince the Europeans they are not under a dictatorship, as was the case for Scotland.

Remember my prediction in 2010 in the "Understanding Everything Fundamentally" essay.

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Understand%20Everything%20Fundamentally.html#europe

"Coase’s theorem says that an inefficient internal order will continue for as long as there remains an unavoidable frictional barrier insulating it from the more efficient external possibilities. The fundamental reason the EU crisis will not result in a disintegration of the union, at least not until its people significantly abandon collectivism, is that organisms which are unable to comprehend the mechanism by which they are consuming resources faster than their ecosystem can replenish, thus are unable to stop the mechanism before they perish. So the implosion of the friction and thus the order only occurs when they perish, because they will continue to repeat the mechanism which they do not understand to be a cause of their suffering. This can be verified in a petri dish, as an organism will reproduce until it consumes all of its food or oxygen."

Yet another in my growing list of "I told you so". Armstrong finally starting to realize what I told him years ago, that the Euro was designed from the beginning to federalized Europe.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34228

You Can Check-In for the Euro – But You Can Never Leave

...Brussels has a hidden clause that shows from the very beginning this was a covert action to federalize Europe displacing democratic institutions from the top down...

...This Article 352 allows the EU to wage economic war on any member state to force its will upon the people regardless of what they vote. This is an amazing authoritarian view for this is not just about maintaining a single currency, it is now all about centralized power. The EU is now in a position to carry out coercive measures against Greece that are completely outside any legal framework.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/02/business/international/greece-bailout-tsipras.html

With its banking system shut down and access to further aid cut off, Greece faced the prospect of further debt defaults...

...Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany made clear on Tuesday that she favored waiting until after the Greek referendum on Sunday to reopen talks, and her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, repeated that message on Wednesday after news of Mr. Tsipras’s letter became public.

I told you so:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34268

In a TV interview, Mr. Varoufakis said very clearly, “This is a very dark moment for Europe. They have closed our banks for the sole purpose of blackmailing what?

...

The Troika deliberately closed the banks to punish the people of Greece, and to show them what exiting the euro means. This appears to be their only way of diverting the crisis with orchestrating a fake “YES” vote to economic suicide. The Troika will attempt to rig the referendum as they did with the Scottish elections.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34373

EU Openly Wants To Overthrow the Greek Government

The Deutsche-Wirtschafts-Nachrichten is reporting that the head of the EU and Merkel are now openly calling for the overthrow of the Greek Government. It is their way or no way. To defend a failed Euro, they will not tolerate any democratic process that disagrees with their vision of a federalized Europe. This is World War III, just in economic domination coming from Brussels.

The President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, has stated that holding new elections in Greece is now mandatory when the people vote for the reform program of the creditors. He insists that any relief for the Greeks, which is blackmail keeping their banks closed, will be bridged with a technical transitional government until elections are held that approve only their candidates, and that this will be a requirement of further negotiations. “If this transitional government is a reasonable agreement with the donors, then Syriza time was over. Then Greece has another chance, ” said Schulz. This is outright dictatorship for not a single member of the Troika is elected by the people including the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde.

We have been forecasting a Crisis is Democracy would emerge by 2015.75 back at our 1985 conference. This is just how all societies collapse. Unfortunately, well – it is here.

[TPTB_need_war]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34394

The American Revolution set off a contagion which manifested in Europe with the French Revolution beginning on the 14th of July 1789. The first inauguration of George Washington took place on  April 30th, 1789. So if we take the Cycle of Political Change from 1789, that brings us up to a rather important event of a national hero who is called a traitor and would be killed or imprisoned for life exactly as George III declared Thomas Jefferson a traitor and everyone else who signed the Declaration of Independence which Jefferson wrote. Snowden could only go to Russia for security for any other country would have turned him over, George III sent an entire army to capture Jefferson personally and hang him. Fortunately, he was warned an entire army was converging on his home and he had to flee.

That hero appeared on May 20th, 2013 precisely 224 years on cue from 1789. That hero is Edward Snowden for what he revealed was not just that the United States was unconstitutionally violating every right of every American citizen, it was a worldwide cooperation among nations to hunt down their own people because they could feel the reigns of power slipping from their grip. They say history produces the heroes we need at critical moments. Perhaps this is true. One is hard pressed to find so many brilliant minds coming together as was the case in 1776 as we saw with people like Jefferson, Ben Franklin, James Madison, and even Thomas Paine whose words moved a nation along with those of Patrick Henry – Give Me Liberty or Give Me Death.

Hopefully, there will be people who will step forward over the next 4 years to lend a hand once again. We face a very dark new age of totalitarianism and government crush all rights to preserve their privileges and power.

I also in the past pointed out that Snowden made his final commitment to his plan precisely in April 2013 which marked the peak of the USA (which will break apart and not be united) in the other 224 year cycle of change in Armstrong's models.

Perhaps I am one of those "brilliant minds coming together". Not to be braggart, but I know the details of the work I am doing. I point that out not to boost my ego, but rather to offer it as evidence that I think Armstrong's model prediction of "brilliant minds coming together" may be correct.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34398

I pledge allegiance to no flag, but to truth and morality.
which doesn’t seem to exist in the Divided States of America.
And to no republic, for it stands for nothing,
One nation, under surveillance,
comply divided
with Liberty and Justice destroyed
and inalienable rights taken from us all.
SG

[OROBTC]

...

TPTB wrote above:

"There absolutely will be a mad stampede into the short-end of the yield curve in bonds in Europe as the debt contagion LIQUIDITY CRISIS over there is unleashed over the next few months. When the Europeans return from summer vacations, all hell is going to break out over there.

There are a lot of Europeans holding BTC and when they need to raise cash because of the liquidity crisis that will be caused by the contagion, they will sell what is liquid."

Two very interesting points.  I will watch as hell breaks loose over in Europe.  August is their vacation month, and much of the place grinds to a halt.  Serious selling would start in September.

And, yes, in a pinch, they will sell what is liquid!  They need money, they will go for the easier-to-get money.  If I, however, were living in Europe (but with my asset structure as here in the USA), I would be buying BTC.  To take it with me, or at least keep "money" out of the hands of the safe deposit box raiding gangsters of Greece's .gov.

[TPTB_need_war]

Without reading every page in this thread, I'll add my two cents worth here.

I can't see a reason why Gold can't rise along with Bitcoin at the moment, just at different rates. Whereas Bitcoin can approach $1000 again by the end of year (nearly 4x the current price) similarly Gold can approach $2000 by the end of the year (nearly 2x the current price). Neither Bitcoin or Gold are undermined by debt compared to all the trillions of dollars in stocks and bonds which are leveraged to general confidence in elite lending strategies.

mymy you are severely out of context considering the last 1000 or so pages you should have read here.

anyway, do not forget about how the gold market is rigged, rotten from its heart by the FED Masters, whom nonetheless deem worth accumulating/stealing shit tons of it @FortKnox.

bitcorn and popcoin is cheap now too tho

I believe both of you are so incredibly removed from reality, that it boggles my mind.

Let me try to help you, and I mean that sincerely.

We are coming into a low for private assets[1] because for the moment the contagion in Europe is driving international capital flows (capital follows capital due to the wealth effect where Δ flow != Δ mcap) into the short end of the bond curve in the core EU economies in particular Germany (and away from the long-end and peripheral EU bond markets). October will be the bottom for private assets[1], after which they will begin to rise again as they did after their 2008 implosion (dollar and US stocks were making a phase transition from public to private alignment over this period).

So you will see radical bottom in gold and BTC roughly this Sept or Oct, probably south of $850 and $150. I am thinking possibly double-digits for BTC with $100 as a psychological barrier that is necessary to shake out all the fools who bought at $600.

New all-time highs for private assets will come in 2016 or 2017. By the end of 2017, the dollar and US stocks will fall away from private assets as the influx of safe haven capital will have peaked and the strong dollar will have choked off the US economy. Then USA will go over the cliff in 2018 being the last economy still standing in the world taking us into  global economic abyss of epic deflation.

Private assets will skyrocket after 2017, but they will also be hunted by the governments like mad dog Rottweilers munching on your arm (former US Treasury official, "we will burn the fingertips of goldbugs up to their armpits").

As for the manipulation thesis, it is utter nonsense. For example, Armstrong totally annihilated Fekete's backtwardation mumbo-jumbo, especially since Armstrong is the one who taught the Arabs to lease their gold to earn income to work around the anti-usury provision of the Islamic religion. Numerous other essays from Armstrong have explained why the nutter tinfoil hats are delusional about the manipulation argument. I don't have time to repeat all that. Do yourself a research favor.


[1] which includes the dollar, US stocks, gold, bitcoin, because these are all aligned now as safe haven juxtaposed against the European contagion, i.e. the dollar and USA will receive a stampede of capital fleeing Europe after the October 2015 BIG BANG explosion of the sovereign debt (loaned from EU banks) contagion in Europe.

Without reading every page in this thread, I'll add my two cents worth here.

I can't see a reason why Gold can't rise along with Bitcoin at the moment, just at different rates. Whereas Bitcoin can approach $1000 again by the end of year (nearly 4x the current price) similarly Gold can approach $2000 by the end of the year (nearly 2x the current price). Neither Bitcoin or Gold are undermined by debt compared to all the trillions of dollars in stocks and bonds which are leveraged to general confidence in elite lending strategies.

Yeah, I don't think it makes sense to come up with the idea that Bitcoin and precious metals would be mutually exclusive. I'm pretty sure that both will rise. Even if gold might ultimately be replaced by Bitcoin I doubt that this process will be fast enough to obstruct the general upward momentum of gold in a collapsing world economy.

After all, Bitcoin's concept is like virtual gold: The supply is limited, it's very difficult to counterfeit and you have to put in substantial effort to obtain it.

The key phase shift between gold and cryptocoin will likely come after 2017, when gold will be much easier for the Rottweilers to expropriate, steal, plunder, declare as Civil Asset Forfeiture, etc. See my upthread discussion with OROBTC (or just go to his profile and read his posts as he posts infrequently).

[SmoothCurves]

Without reading every page in this thread, I'll add my two cents worth here.

I can't see a reason why Gold can't rise along with Bitcoin at the moment, just at different rates. Whereas Bitcoin can approach $1000 again by the end of year (nearly 4x the current price) similarly Gold can approach $2000 by the end of the year (nearly 2x the current price). Neither Bitcoin or Gold are undermined by debt compared to all the trillions of dollars in stocks and bonds which are leveraged to general confidence in elite lending strategies.

mymy you are severely out of context considering the last 1000 or so pages you should have read here.

anyway, do not forget about how the gold market is rigged, rotten from its heart by the FED Masters, whom nonetheless deem worth accumulating/stealing shit tons of it @FortKnox.

bitcorn and popcoin is cheap now too tho

I believe both of you are so incredibly removed from reality, that it boggles my mind.

Let me try to help you, and I mean that sincerely.

We are coming into a low for private assets[1] because for the moment the contagion in Europe is driving international capital flows (capital follows capital due to the wealth effect where Δ flow != Δ mcap) into the short end of the bond curve in the core EU economies in particular Germany (and away from the long-end and peripheral EU bond markets). October will be the bottom for private assets[1], after which they will begin to rise again as they did after their 2008 implosion (dollar and US stocks were making a phase transition from public to private alignment over this period).

So you will see radical bottom in gold and BTC roughly this Sept or Oct, probably south of $850 and $150. I am thinking possibly double-digits for BTC with $100 as a psychological barrier that is necessary to shake out all the fools who bought at $600.

New all-time highs for private assets will come in 2016 or 2017. By the end of 2017, the dollar and US stocks will fall away from private assets as the influx of safe haven capital will have peaked and the strong dollar will have choked off the US economy. Then USA will go over the cliff in 2018 being the last economy still standing in the world taking us into  global economic abyss of epic deflation.

Private assets will skyrocket after 2017, but they will also be hunted by the governments like mad dog Rottweilers munching on your arm (former US Treasury official, "we will burn the fingertips of goldbugs up to their armpits").

As for the manipulation thesis, it is utter nonsense. For example, Armstrong totally annihilated Fekete's backtwardation mumbo-jumbo, especially since Armstrong is the one who taught the Arabs to lease their gold to earn income to work around the anti-usury provision of the Islamic religion. Numerous other essays from Armstrong have explained why the nutter tinfoil hats are delusional about the manipulation argument. I don't have time to repeat all that. Do yourself a research favor.


[1] which includes the dollar, US stocks, gold, bitcoin, because these are all aligned now as safe haven juxtaposed against the European contagion, i.e. the dollar and USA will receive a stampede of capital fleeing Europe after the October 2015 BIG BANG explosion of the sovereign debt (loaned from EU banks) contagion in Europe.

Without reading every page in this thread, I'll add my two cents worth here.

I can't see a reason why Gold can't rise along with Bitcoin at the moment, just at different rates. Whereas Bitcoin can approach $1000 again by the end of year (nearly 4x the current price) similarly Gold can approach $2000 by the end of the year (nearly 2x the current price). Neither Bitcoin or Gold are undermined by debt compared to all the trillions of dollars in stocks and bonds which are leveraged to general confidence in elite lending strategies.

Yeah, I don't think it makes sense to come up with the idea that Bitcoin and precious metals would be mutually exclusive. I'm pretty sure that both will rise. Even if gold might ultimately be replaced by Bitcoin I doubt that this process will be fast enough to obstruct the general upward momentum of gold in a collapsing world economy.

After all, Bitcoin's concept is like virtual gold: The supply is limited, it's very difficult to counterfeit and you have to put in substantial effort to obtain it.

The key phase shift between gold and cryptocoin will likely come after 2017, when gold will be much easier for the Rottweilers to expropriate, steal, plunder, declare as Civil Asset Forfeiture, etc. See my upthread discussion with OROBTC (or just go to his profile and read his posts as he posts infrequently).

I think you're wrong on calling for a new Bitcoin bottom in the double digits. Seems more likely to me that Gold will tumble heavily as you stated, and Bitcoin will correct from the price spike we could be at the start of. One credible poster on these forums thinks we are 4 weeks away from $1k BTC. If so, when the new Gold bottom gets here Bitcoin will simply correct from $1k to below 500 and come out looking like it kicked Gold's ass. This will then pave the way towards the rest of the events you mentioned.

[TPTB_need_war]

I think you're wrong on calling for a new Bitcoin bottom in the double digits. Seems more likely to me that Gold will tumble heavily as you stated, and Bitcoin will correct from the price spike we could be at the start of. One credible poster on these forums thinks we are 4 weeks away from $1k BTC. If so, when the new Gold bottom gets here Bitcoin will simply correct from $1k to below 500 and come out looking like it kicked Gold's ass. This will then pave the way towards the rest of the events you mentioned.

You will learn the hard way not to bet against Armstrong's models.

[darlidada]

I think you're wrong on calling for a new Bitcoin bottom in the double digits. Seems more likely to me that Gold will tumble heavily as you stated, and Bitcoin will correct from the price spike we could be at the start of. One credible poster on these forums thinks we are 4 weeks away from $1k BTC. If so, when the new Gold bottom gets here Bitcoin will simply correct from $1k to below 500 and come out looking like it kicked Gold's ass. This will then pave the way towards the rest of the events you mentioned.

You will learn the hard way not to bet against Armstrong's models.

Anonymint, I'm going for a one week holiday tomorrow. I wont have any computer available. I'm thinking about putting sell orders at 294 as I think it would make sense we fail to break the 2 previous local tops of 315 and 303. What do you think of it ? I've been greedy in the past and I just dont want to be burned again. If we are at 300+ when I come back, I'll just short it.

[TPTB_need_war]

I think you're wrong on calling for a new Bitcoin bottom in the double digits. Seems more likely to me that Gold will tumble heavily as you stated, and Bitcoin will correct from the price spike we could be at the start of. One credible poster on these forums thinks we are 4 weeks away from $1k BTC. If so, when the new Gold bottom gets here Bitcoin will simply correct from $1k to below 500 and come out looking like it kicked Gold's ass. This will then pave the way towards the rest of the events you mentioned.

You will learn the hard way not to bet against Armstrong's models.

Anonymint, I'm going for a one week holiday tomorrow. I wont have any computer available. I'm thinking about putting sell orders at 294 as I think it would make sense we fail to break the 2 previous local tops of 315 and 303. What do you think of it ? I've been greedy in the past and I just dont want to be burned again. If we are at 300+ when I come back, I'll just short it.

Hey I am not going out on a limb like that. I don't purport to be able to call markets within such tight margins as that. I don't see any problem with missing a potential move from $294 to $315. And yeah better to not be greedy and lower the risk. And I wouldn't short until the top has been clear identified and we were on the way back down, unless you purchase very long-term short positions and want to position early where the price asked is lowest.

And again I can't give you 100% odds. Armstrong's models are guidelines, not stone casts of the future.

I spoke so very strongly against the prior poster, because his expectations are egregiously out-of-line with reality. You are instead asking about a more accurate prediction of the future, so there is more risk of being incorrect.

[holomen]

I think you're wrong on calling for a new Bitcoin bottom in the double digits. Seems more likely to me that Gold will tumble heavily as you stated, and Bitcoin will correct from the price spike we could be at the start of. One credible poster on these forums thinks we are 4 weeks away from $1k BTC. If so, when the new Gold bottom gets here Bitcoin will simply correct from $1k to below 500 and come out looking like it kicked Gold's ass. This will then pave the way towards the rest of the events you mentioned.

You will learn the hard way not to bet against Armstrong's models.

Anonymint, I'm going for a one week holiday tomorrow. I wont have any computer available. I'm thinking about putting sell orders at 294 as I think it would make sense we fail to break the 2 previous local tops of 315 and 303. What do you think of it ? I've been greedy in the past and I just dont want to be burned again. If we are at 300+ when I come back, I'll just short it.

Hey I am not going out on a limb like that. I don't purport to be able to call markets within such tight margins as that. I don't see any problem with missing a potential move from $294 to $315. And yeah better to not be greedy and lower the risk. And I wouldn't short until the top has been clear identified and we were on the way back down, unless you purchase very long-term short positions and want to position early where the price asked is lowest.

And again I can't give you 100% odds. Armstrong's models are guidelines, not stone casts of the future.

I spoke so very strongly against the prior poster, because his expectations are egregiously out-of-line with reality. You are instead asking about a more accurate prediction of the future, so there is more risk of being incorrect.

TPTB_need_war, I've just recently discovered Armstrong models and find them amazingly precise. Still it's a new realm for me, just made few daily trades from public available data. You have far more knowledge and experience in reading and trading the Forecast arrays.

I've found really much use in your explanation of market moves. Thank you for the time spent.

Could you clear the TIME targets, reversals with GAP's of SLV;GOLD and your estimated BTC points?  Hope to meet in WEC BRLN

[TPTB_need_war]

Last year and 2013, Armstrong was saying real estate would be a safe haven and I was telling him no property taxes would skyrocket. Again I am correct and he is wrong!

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34662


And since 2010 I been explaining why EU would not break up and Greece will not leave. Again Armstrong will be wrong:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34521

Greece can't do that exit because the G20 would cut them off from the world (no trade, no money transfer in an out, remember Russia, China, EU, and USA are all complicit). And their economy would plunge into the Dark Age. And no one would migrate there as Armstrong dumbly assumes. TPTB have too much control already. The only way out is the people's (of the world) own anonymous, scalable cryptocoin.

The EU will consolidate the debts of all member nations but later once all nations fall into the same abyss. Until then Greece is locked inside.

Btw, on the cryptocoin front, I am going to have to embarrass the fuck out of the core Bitcoin devs who are also Blockstream devs (I tried being nice but they don't seem to like mutual respect and amicable sharing), because they are brow-beating tyrants who inhibit creativity and can't even see it (they are going to be shocked soon... mark my word):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1085436.msg11819409#msg11819409

[herzmeister]

What finally moved me today to start this thread is his post was his very interesting piece (from today) "Money -- Credit -- Debt & Derivatives".  It looks like derivatives are as old as money itself (maybe older!), take a look at the article:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31401

yup, this is in tune with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSnReXI4gKk

[rayhan]

Martin Armstrong discussions are really good.  The models published by him are practical and compatible with today's reality. People who are investing should take a look at them. The links are pretty much mentioned in all the comments. I've participated in many discussions and they proved fruitful. They all tend to give you an idea of current market scenario.

[OROBTC]

...

Armstrong not only is good with the MACRO, but he painted on great picture of actual human suffering over there in Greece:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34665

When the elephants fight, there are often ordinary people who become victims and get squashed...

[SmoothCurves]

I think you're wrong on calling for a new Bitcoin bottom in the double digits. Seems more likely to me that Gold will tumble heavily as you stated, and Bitcoin will correct from the price spike we could be at the start of. One credible poster on these forums thinks we are 4 weeks away from $1k BTC. If so, when the new Gold bottom gets here Bitcoin will simply correct from $1k to below 500 and come out looking like it kicked Gold's ass. This will then pave the way towards the rest of the events you mentioned.

You will learn the hard way not to bet against Armstrong's models.

I'm not betting against the model only your interpretation as it relates to BTC.

[TPTB_need_war]

Note I am re-posting this with corrections.

I was intending to not post any more, but I've got to address this some where publicly. I hope some of you email this rebuttal to Armstrong and get him to address my criticism.

I do not agree with the following analysis. Armstrong's models are correct, but he is incorrect about the existence of TPTB because for example he believes in a multi-polar world where Russia, China, and the USA are not actually complicit and not just pretending to be antagonists. He ignores all the proof that I've sent him that they are indeed fake antagonists who are controlled by TPTB. The data in his models can not capture this complicity between the world's axis powers.

What FDR effectively did was make the dollar undervalued relative to gold, thus the international bankers (whom he worked for) were who held gold were revalued upwards by double relative to the minions holding dollars after the gold was confiscated from the people.  And going forward to 1971, the dollar became ever more debased so international bankers were cashing dollars for gold at the fixed exchange rate. The depository domestic banks weren't holding the gold any where, they were fractional reserve systems. The gold was held at Fort Knox and whether it is still there or not, there are IOUs owed internationally so it is effectively not ours any more. Armstrong needs to read the essays of the late Howard Katz (the One Handed Economist) who explained that Americans were eating more butter, chicken, and had a higher standard of living after 1929 and before the New Deal was instituted. 1929 was a haircut for Wallstreet not Mainstreet. It was after the New Deal started that the real hardship began which by the time of WW2 it got so bad that woman had to go work in factories and no one could eat butter. The collapse of 1929 was a collapse of finance, but the basic necessities of life became more valued and thus production increased. My grandfather on my mother's side was walking around with a basket selling potatoes after 1929. Whereas the New Deal paid people to walk on crops and destroyed the farms exacerbating the Dust Bowls. One could say that perhaps FDR was induced politically to try to do something by the Dust Bowls, but what he did effectively was socialism of stealing private wealth, misallocating into public works programs, and overvaluing the dollar thus over decades sending all the gold overseas.

This doesn't mean I think gold can be money. You can clearly see it is a tool for the government and bankers to fund socialism and expropriate from the private sector.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34677

ANSWER: What you have to understand is that Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s (FDR) actions in 1933 were not directed simply at gold. This was the end of austerity, which is what was creating the serious economic depression. So, you must separate gold and the devaluation of the dollar to comprehend what the issue was all about. FDR could have simply abandoned the gold standard, as did Britain, and not confiscated gold, which would have also been sufficient to end austerity. But the bankers would have profited and sold the gold overseas at higher prices.

The confiscation of the gold was for two reasons. First, FDR was changing the monetary system from one where there was no distinction domestically from internationally. Gold would freely circulate without restriction. Therefore, the confiscation of gold was altering the monetary system moving to a two-tier monetary system with gold only used in international transactions. Consequently, FDR confiscated gold to move to a two-tier system.

What FDR then did was confiscate gold. Ironically, this move was intended to target the bankers rather than the public, as the hunt for spare change is now directed at individuals. FDR sought to prevent the bankers from making a profit and to transfer that profit to the state while funding the New Deal.

P.S. This myopia is also related to why Armstrong's proposed solutions for Greece and the sovereign debt crisis in general are untenable at best, and even if they could be implemented they would be a horrible result for mainstreet over the long-term, because all his proposals involve the centralization of power. I have explained why in prior posts about them. For example, the only way Greece could survive a GrExit would be with the access to international markets, but the axis powers are complicit. As for the debt for equity swap Armstrong proposes (sovereign debt exchanged for corporate shares), I explained in the past that this requires that investors have a fungible valuation of disparate companies. The only way that proposal is workable is if it is basically transferring a basket of all public companies to a single entity that holds all the debt, i.e. the TPTB. It is just same FDR gold swindle in disguise all over again. I really think Armstrong works for TPTB. He is advocating a one-world currency reserve and world domination by TPTB. That is coming and inevitable, and our escape is the Knowledge Age and our own decentralized, scalable, anonymous cryptocurrency.

[macsga]

[...]
I really think Armstrong works for TPTB. He is advocating a one-world currency reserve and world domination by TPTB. That is coming and inevitable, and our escape is the Knowledge Age and our own decentralized, scalable, anonymous cryptocurrency.

This is a really bold comment from you, but if it proves to be true it would also explain a lot of things concerning his predictions. I remember having a private conversation about it IIRC. FWIW, I think you're somewhat wrongly posed AFAIC the way of the things to come. Progress, I'm afraid is indeed inevitable, but we must understand as a species that EVERYBODY is into the same vessel!

No one can escape a fate that it's been destined for the others... That alone should trigger a self preservation mechanism that will eventually overcome the destruction issues. Of course, there's always the chance that TPTB have already studied this scenario and they've prepared a plan B. And I don't rule out that B stands for Bitcoin...

[thatbluedude]

Armstong did another piece on global cooling
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34854
and I don't really know what to make of it.

Our model tracks everything including climate.

So that's allready factored in in all predictions?

...We could realistically see famine reach the 33%-50% level. ....... we may exceed more than a reduction in population of one-third and reach the levels of the 14th century of 50%,...

these are worldwide numbers? Can someone translate that into a percentual price increase(range)?

[TPTB_need_war]

Armstong did another piece on global cooling
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34854
and I don't really know what to make of it.

Our model tracks everything including climate.

So that's allready factored in in all predictions?

...We could realistically see famine reach the 33%-50% level. ....... we may exceed more than a reduction in population of one-third and reach the levels of the 14th century of 50%,...

these are worldwide numbers? Can someone translate that into a percentual price increase(range)?

Every 309 years serious shifts come. The end of the severe minimum in the sun spot activity was 1715. Thus 1715+309 = 2024 will be the start of a slide into a new minimum in sun spot activity.

Seriously bad shit can result.

We are headed into really bad and difficult times.

The main upside is we are more technologically advanced by now, so we can cope well if we get organized with the Knowledge Age.

[OROBTC]

...

Let me tell you all why I like reading Armstrong.  It is NOT for his predictions to be 100% right (as "our TPTB" notes above, predicting the future is hard).  It is NOT that he may/may not be working for the "real TPTB".

It is that he is full of ideas.  IDEAS!  I read items at his blog that I real nowhere else.  And who else is running a supercomputer to model all the different markets and indicators?  Such an obvious idea that I'm surprised that no one has done that before...

And while his blog is confusing (and even self-promotional), I suspect that his big-money customers get a lot of IDEAS (and probably specific investment recommendations) that they can think about.  And plan for.

Read and taken in this light, I think that "our TPTB" as well as Armstrong are worth careful study.  Both are right, IMO, a scary & bad time awaits.

Prepare.


Edit above in bold