Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

Granted you may be actively trading and planning on stopping out before taking a big loss, sure, but that whole approach is still not really "risk averse" as I would consider the term (in the sense of owning 25% metals, 25% land, etc.)

Correct, because stop losses are losses. They are not diversification.

Anyone who is risk adverse would have a portfolio of something like 25% physical cash, 25% metals, 25% land/rental properties, 25% btc.

Anyone who has more than 25% of their liquid network in crypto (and the rest in instantly illiquid assets such as gold, cash, and land since governments routinely cancel cash, apply capital controls to gold, and can raise taxes egregiously on land causing buyers to run away) at this stage of the imminent global liquidity squeeze as interest rates rise and with the risks of CC failure due to centralization, is either very poor already and gambling with lunch money, or is a high stakes gambler and not a prudent investor.

Stocks and bonds are out of the question right now

US stocks are one of the best and most liquid investments one can make for the timeframe through the end of 2017. You gain the benefit of a US dollar that will rise ~30% over that time frame compounded by a 50 - 200% rise in the stocks as the rest of the world piles into these two safe havens (dollar and US stocks denominated in dollars). The justification was explained in my upthread posts (which link off to the Martin Armstrong thread in the Economics forum which has more detail).

AAA-rated USA corporate bonds are also a similarly phenomenal investment right now for the same reasons. Governments' bonds should be avoided like the plague.

Edit: my subsequent post contemplates that the SLINGSHOT move may be delayed another 1.5 years depending on outcome of BREXIT vote.

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[TPTB_need_war]

In the end, it is almost irrelevent differentiating between an outcome of deflationary collapse and hyperinflation.  All that really matters is the cogs stop turning.  You will have to flee to another country that uses the closest thing to "honest money" possible or risk sitting around in a perpetual, unproductive ghetto for a decade or so.

The inflation / deflation "recipe" the Elite are using is more advanced than single-dimensional classical analysis. They are inflating the debt-markets (otherwise they go bust by non-refinancing / non-rollover of debt) and deflating the small guy. Large debt markets get refunded and the small guy gets a liquidity crunch or a problematic daily costs / daily income ratio (if he doesn't own any loans).

Thus the small guy is like "what inflation? The dollar (or X currency) is becoming scarcer by the day - I'd do anything for (...fewer) dollars than yesterday because my bills are now bigger and the pressure is mounting".

Deflating the small guy leads him to the pawn shop to sell his jewelry, leads him to ebay, to sell his stuff, leads him to the real estate agent to sell his property, etc etc. Why? Because he needs to find cash - which are becoming "scarcer", not because the government isn't issuing a lot of currency, but because the banks are slowly drying up the avg person liquidity and the costs of life are rising.

It is essential for their plan to have the small guy beaten by deflation while they are inflating the debt markets by the trillions. If the small guy had "helicopter money" he would be buying precious metals, bitcoins etc. Even if 95% of the people just went on walmart and spent their helicopter money, the 5% that would choose to stack some gold, silver, bitcoins etc, would be *extremely* dangerous in destabilizing their price suppression schemes on alternative currencies.

All of the above applies for western societies mainly, where people's purchasing power is immense (by global standards) and their currencies are considered "solid" - without much inflationary effect being visible (that's an illusion btw).

Developing countries with inflation are a lesser threat to the elite because they also have the issue of capital controls, in the sense that the population of a developing country with high inflation, rarely has unlimited access to the forex market, or the gold market. If, say, a country with high inflation allowed their citizens to buy dollars or gold in an unlimited fashion, they would simply run out of foreign reserves to buy essentials like food, oil etc - which are traded with USD in the global commodity markets. No USD reserves = no commerce / no imports = problems. So, for reasons of "general wellbeing" it will be generally disallowed for citizens to (massively) dump their currency in favor of foreign currencies or gold.

The developing countries are the "useful idiots" of the whole system as the developed countries point to them to "prove" that they have no inflation. If, say, Venezuela runs at 50%, then USA can pretend to run 0% - because no-one is challenging them in terms of running an honest currency. The western nations are also inflating in sync, so that it is imperceptible what they are doing. Even countries which do not have the need to inflate their money supply, did so. Switzerland for example. They were getting all those inflows from other countries and then they "decided" to "peg" their currency to the euro in specific ratios. In other words, issuing as many new swiss francs as were needed in order to ...buy all the inflating euros, dollars etc. The hand of the Elite is quite visible in cases like this because such moves don't make any economic sense in the context of said nation (Switzerland is not China that would be hampered by rising currency rates - in fact it would boost the perception of solidness and by extension their banking sector which is their ...core business). These moves only make sense under the macroscopic view of the global economy and in-sync / co-ordinated attempt to inflate all western nations simultaneously, in order to make devaluation imperceptible.

Now, regarding the end game. There is no end game unless they decide so. What they are primarily interested in is to make a financial reset that allows them to use a similar economic system as this one, without the economic system taking the blame for the "collapse". They want to attribute the fall to outside causes. Wars, disease, terrorism, "irresponsible corporations", natural disasters - whatever they can. They do not want to make it apparent that the debt-based system was a scam and doomed from the start. They will perpetuate this for as long as it serves their purpose and for as long as they haven't found the right excuse to proceed to a reset.

This is excellent. I will be copying (quoting) this two threads in the Economics forum.

Edit: note I had written similar explanations several times, including this published essay (but note I didn't understand at the time of that published essay that gold is just a hedge against government and the hyperinflation is not the normal outcome, which are both facts I learned from Martin Armstrong).

[TPTB_need_war]

VERY IMPORTANT!

Martin Armstrong's "if this, then that" reversals have indicated that a very rare and unexpected outcome has become more plausible:

We will do a brief video update tomorrow on the general state of the markets given we have elected Monthly Bullish Reversals in several currencies. While we have been looking for the Euro to reach 116, we have now clearly extended the sideways rally given that the major low for last year took place in March 2015. May has been the main target in time on our arrays for a long-time. It appears we should press higher into May (dollar decline). There is a potential that exceeding the 117 level could spark a rally even up to the 125 level. This is rather serious for last year’s high was 12109. Exceeding that high intraday would make 2016 a REACTION HIGH since we did not make a new low this year.

The yearly array in the Euro warns the turning points are 2016 and 2018 followed then by 2022. Additionally, 2016 is a PANIC CYCLE YEAR and we have not seen anything unfold with volatility just yet. We have the BREXIT vote in June. A failure for Britain to exit would perhaps create that last rally of euphoria that the Euro will survive. Nevertheless, the fundamentals which hit in 2017 globally, warn that  the trend thereafter does not look very bright.

Such a move in the Euro to exceed last year’s high would most likely result in a tremendous setup for a [ur=https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-false-move/]FALSE MOVE[/url] and the slingshot we see that appears to be unfolding from next year onward. Everything from oil, turmoil in Saudi Arabia, commodities (including metals) to stocks, bonds, and currencies, are all warning that we will see the crazy times ahead in trading where most will lose everything.

What Armstrong is saying is that the prediction markets (i.e. the Euro's FX value) may have ascertained that BREXIT vote will result with Britain remaining in the EU. Probably because of the corrupt control (e.g. vote counting cheating) combined the people can be frightened by for example the speech from Obama threatening to cut off Britian from trade negotiations. Additionally the EU migration policy has enabled many migrants to relocate for better work in the UK and throughout the EU. Additionally many retirees in Europe dependent on government's implicit backing of pensions who are frightened by the prospects of a turn away from socialism.

This was what I predicted ("Europe will not disintegrate") back in 2010 (see the bolded linked essay which btw was widely syndicated at goldeagle.com, marketoracle,co.uk, financialsense.com, silverbearcafe, etc):

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally  <--- this one

The implications of this are that the rising interest rates and slingshot scenario for the US stocks and US dollar could be delayed until 2017 or even 2018. This FALSE MOVE up for Europe could cause a FALSE MOVE down for the US stock market and US dollar (inversion of the reasons for the slingshot move) which will load the slingshot with maximum catapulting force.

Those who don't understand what I am referring to by "slingshot" need to review my recent posts upthread.

So this means we might not get a crash in Bitcoin and gold at this time if they are still anti-correlated to the US dollar and US stocks. We might be looking at "happy speculating days are here again" for another 1.5 years!! OMG!!  

But realize that when the slingshot comes 2017ish (with the phase transition accelerated stampede beginning perhaps 2017.95 instead of peaking on that date as originally speculated), US dollar, US stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and other tangible "off the grid" assets will be aligned in an upward bubble as the rest of the world flees its collapsing economies (for reasons as explained upthread).

So assuming BREXIT is denied (and the public's support of EU is affirmed), we may see for the remainder of 2016 that USD down, US stocks down, and gold and Bitcoin could go either direction. Gold might go down since it is seen as a hedge against government failure. Bitcoin could go up if people are selling gold and looking for an alternative speculation in the tinfoil hat arena. Bitcoin isn't really a hedge against government failure, rather BTC is a crypto-gambler's paradise reserve currency. But gold may also still be anti-correlated to the USD somewhat, so perhaps gold would not decline and not go up either. However it is possible that Bitcoin would go down with both gold and USD/USD stocks, if Bitcoin is seem also ideologically a bet on the failure of currency unions and governments. My thinking though is Bitcoin is a hi-tech innovation and is driven by crypto speculation demand. Perhaps what can bring Bitcoin down is the realization that SegWit doesn't solve Bitcoin's scalepocalyse.

Whereas, once that FALSE MOVE into the Euro peaks and the realities of how fucked the ZIRP and pegging of currencies is, with the $10 trillion short on the USD by foreign corporation bond offerings, then the SLINGSHOT back into the USD and US stocks, which at first will confound everyone. But this will accelerate the collapse of the rest of the world as the USD rises.

As this gains steam, it is possible it may pull some money out of Bitcoin, as Bitcoin may have peaked from the current up move, and speculators will want a new speculation as they see gold and USD/US stocks rising. So perhaps Bitcoin is anti-correlated to gold after all! Hmmm. But the other possibility is gold and Bitcoin both don't make a significant move on the FALSE MOVE, or they both go down or up together.

My bet is as follows:

1. Gold is primarily a hedge against failure of government now, and no longer anti-correlated to USD. Tinfoil hat goldbugs have by now realized China is not our savior.

2. BREXIT fails, Euro up, Euro stocks up, USD down, USD stocks down, gold down, and Bitcoin confused.

3. SegWit realized to be insufficient, Bitcoin down hard along with gold, USD, USD stocks.


Edit: Armstrong sees gold aligning with USD stocks (but very importantly still disaligned with USD) in preparation for the upcoming FALSE MOVE in 2016 followed by SLINGSHOT move in 2017. And has noted USA Dow stocks in the region of technical support. So it appears the current up move in gold, Bitcoin, and stocks will reverse with the outcome of the BREXIT vote if is a "No" result.

[TPTB_need_war]

Found this old "stream of consciousness" essay I wrote quickly "off the cuff" in March 2009. Interesting to read the entire essay because it was the first time I publicly mentioned Martin Armstrong in a very poignant way, and also I was clearly looking for Bitcoin. I'll quote the portion that claims I had 17,000oz of silver:

P.S. If anyone wants to buy Buffalo 0.999 1oz silver rounds, I am selling them for $1 over spot in lots of 100oz. Contact me via email for how to order at this price (antithesis@coolpage.com). There are photos at VaultOz.com. These are brand new in mint tubes of 20 from the Highland mint, stored at a reputable depository that ships within 24 - 48 hours of your payment. I manufactured about 17,000oz and have about 9,000oz remaining to sell. I am no longer planning to do this as a business and am liquidating at a loss, so I can move my silver assets outside the USA.

[OROBTC]

In the end, it is almost irrelevent differentiating between an outcome of deflationary collapse and hyperinflation.  All that really matters is the cogs stop turning.  You will have to flee to another country that uses the closest thing to "honest money" possible or risk sitting around in a perpetual, unproductive ghetto for a decade or so.

The inflation / deflation "recipe" the Elite are using is more advanced than single-dimensional classical analysis. They are inflating the debt-markets (otherwise they go bust by non-refinancing / non-rollover of debt) and deflating the small guy. Large debt markets get refunded and the small guy gets a liquidity crunch or a problematic daily costs / daily income ratio (if he doesn't own any loans).

Thus the small guy is like "what inflation? The dollar (or X currency) is becoming scarcer by the day - I'd do anything for (...fewer) dollars than yesterday because my bills are now bigger and the pressure is mounting".

Deflating the small guy leads him to the pawn shop to sell his jewelry, leads him to ebay, to sell his stuff, leads him to the real estate agent to sell his property, etc etc. Why? Because he needs to find cash - which are becoming "scarcer", not because the government isn't issuing a lot of currency, but because the banks are slowly drying up the avg person liquidity and the costs of life are rising.

It is essential for their plan to have the small guy beaten by deflation while they are inflating the debt markets by the trillions. If the small guy had "helicopter money" he would be buying precious metals, bitcoins etc. Even if 95% of the people just went on walmart and spent their helicopter money, the 5% that would choose to stack some gold, silver, bitcoins etc, would be *extremely* dangerous in destabilizing their price suppression schemes on alternative currencies.

All of the above applies for western societies mainly, where people's purchasing power is immense (by global standards) and their currencies are considered "solid" - without much inflationary effect being visible (that's an illusion btw).

Developing countries with inflation are a lesser threat to the elite because they also have the issue of capital controls, in the sense that the population of a developing country with high inflation, rarely has unlimited access to the forex market, or the gold market. If, say, a country with high inflation allowed their citizens to buy dollars or gold in an unlimited fashion, they would simply run out of foreign reserves to buy essentials like food, oil etc - which are traded with USD in the global commodity markets. No USD reserves = no commerce / no imports = problems. So, for reasons of "general wellbeing" it will be generally disallowed for citizens to (massively) dump their currency in favor of foreign currencies or gold.

The developing countries are the "useful idiots" of the whole system as the developed countries point to them to "prove" that they have no inflation. If, say, Venezuela runs at 50%, then USA can pretend to run 0% - because no-one is challenging them in terms of running an honest currency. The western nations are also inflating in sync, so that it is imperceptible what they are doing. Even countries which do not have the need to inflate their money supply, did so. Switzerland for example. They were getting all those inflows from other countries and then they "decided" to "peg" their currency to the euro in specific ratios. In other words, issuing as many new swiss francs as were needed in order to ...buy all the inflating euros, dollars etc. The hand of the Elite is quite visible in cases like this because such moves don't make any economic sense in the context of said nation (Switzerland is not China that would be hampered by rising currency rates - in fact it would boost the perception of solidness and by extension their banking sector which is their ...core business). These moves only make sense under the macroscopic view of the global economy and in-sync / co-ordinated attempt to inflate all western nations simultaneously, in order to make devaluation imperceptible.

Now, regarding the end game. There is no end game unless they decide so. What they are primarily interested in is to make a financial reset that allows them to use a similar economic system as this one, without the economic system taking the blame for the "collapse". They want to attribute the fall to outside causes. Wars, disease, terrorism, "irresponsible corporations", natural disasters - whatever they can. They do not want to make it apparent that the debt-based system was a scam and doomed from the start. They will perpetuate this for as long as it serves their purpose and for as long as they haven't found the right excuse to proceed to a reset.

This is excellent. I will be copying (quoting) this two threads in the Economics forum.

Indeed, TPTB.  AlexGR's piece was full of interesting little nuggets to ponder.  Thanks for bringing this to our attention.

Yes, upon a moment's reflection, AlexGR makes an interesting point that I have not seen explained like that: The Elite will manage a "collapse" the best they can, but will NOT change the debt-based system we now have (to the best of their ability).

Clap, clap, clap!

[freshman777]

So this means we might not get a crash in Bitcoin and gold at this time if they are still anti-correlated to the US dollar and US stocks. We might be looking at "happy speculating days are here again" for another 1.5 years!! OMG!!  

Hilarious, so no gold under $850 or Bitcoin under $150 this year. When predictions don't come true, you just make a new one Fed ain't raising no rates, they are searching for every possible excuse not to raise them and they are succeeding every Fed meeting, the one they did in December was a game of chicken, they learned they are the chicken. Hyperinflation baby. Bitcoin I am not sure, it's crippled by chinese miners, it can go belly up any minute.

[pinky]

So this means we might not get a crash in Bitcoin and gold at this time if they are still anti-correlated to the US dollar and US stocks. We might be looking at "happy speculating days are here again" for another 1.5 years!! OMG!!  

Hilarious, so no gold under $850 or Bitcoin under $150 this year. When predictions don't come true, you just make a new one Fed ain't raising no rates, they are searching for every possible excuse not to raise them and they are succeeding every Fed meeting, the one they did in December was a game of chicken, they learned they are the chicken. Hyperinflation baby. Bitcoin I am not sure, it's crippled by chinese miners, it can go belly up any minute.

lol, moving targets. He is trying to be prophet, yet he knows shit what will happen. I remember last year how he preached about BTC and Gold hitting the bottom. Since then BTC up 100%, Gold up +20%.

His problem is that he is trying to explain and predict what is going to happen with freebies that MA puts out here and there. Well, even MA was wrong this time, even though he won't admit it.

[TPTB_need_war]

So this means we might not get a crash in Bitcoin and gold at this time if they are still anti-correlated to the US dollar and US stocks. We might be looking at "happy speculating days are here again" for another 1.5 years!! OMG!!  

Hilarious, so no gold under $850 or Bitcoin under $150 this year. When predictions don't come true, you just make a new one Fed ain't raising no rates, they are searching for every possible excuse not to raise them and they are succeeding every Fed meeting, the one they did in December was a game of chicken, they learned they are the chicken. Hyperinflation baby. Bitcoin I am not sure, it's crippled by chinese miners, it can go belly up any minute.

lol, moving targets. He is trying to be prophet, yet he knows shit what will happen. I remember last year how he preached about BTC and Gold hitting the bottom. Since then BTC up 100%, Gold up +20%.

His problem is that he is trying to explain and predict what is going to happen with freebies that MA puts out here and there. Well, even MA was wrong this time, even though he won't admit it.

I did not have a copy of the gold report from last year, but someone I communicate with did. He told me the benchmarks indicated that gold would "most likely" still make lower lows (e.g. < $1050, with the first target for a bottom of $850), and that the first possible timeframe for the low was end of Q1 2016 (contrary to what I was thinking was just after 2015.75). Upon learning that, I stopped thinking Bitcoin would move lower than the mid $200s before then.

The benchmarks stated that the USA dollar and and USA stocks had to start moving in unison as another criteria and if this wasn't the case, then the benchmark low would be pushed out in time until they do.

Thus none of his predictions have failed. Those who expect him to say "this will happen on this date" are building a strawman illogic, because MA never predicts such. His method is to provide a "if this, then that" analysis of the computer model's outputs. As I explained my post yesterday upthread, since the Euro has made MONTHLY BULLISH reversals, this indicates a move back into the Euro by the speculation markes with a potential top 117 to 125+. Thus this indicates that the USA dollar will not just break out to the upside yet (i.e. that the world's capital is not yet fleeing to seek safe haven in the USA dollar which will come eventually). And the USA stock market has been up recently, so still out-of-sync with the USA dollar. So the interpretation of this appears to be that prediction markets are expect a "No" result for the upcoming BREXIT vote this June 23, 2016. Thus USA dollar down, and if USA stocks also follow the USA dollar down, then this would be the FALSE MOVE (moving in unison) that would load the SLINGSHOT move to the upside for the newly aligned safe haven assets of the dollar, USA stocks, gold, Bitcoin, collectibles, tangibles (e.g. land), etc.. Thus the earliest date (which is also confirmed by the computer model) is the May/June followed by August, etc..

What appears to be the most likely outcome is that the EU will experience a resurgence of hot money inflows due to the "Remain" result for the BREXIT referendum. This will be a deadcat bounce extremis while the fundamentals will grow worse (fiscal, debt, migrant crises). If the USA dollar and USA stocks both decline at the same time due to this shift of the movement of hot money to the EU, Euro, UK pound, Europe stocks, then it means the world will become less risk adverse for that brief period, which will send gold down also since gold is a hedge against government failure. Whether Bitcoin also follows down is not stated by MA's model, because he isn't tracking it. But the USA dollar and USA stocks coming into alignment, would mean all safe haven assets go down. The likely event triggering such for Bitcoin is the exhale for the priced in expectation of price rise on the July halving, and also the realization that Blockstream's SegWit scaling solution is inadequate without more "soft version forks' later, but the realization that inserting this "soft fork versioning" in Bitcoin's protocol along with Blockstream cooperating with China's 65+% share (to increase on the halving as marginal miners fall away) of mining control means that Bitcoin is no longer a decentralized currency and thus Bitcoin has failed. But later the markets will rebound when they realize "nevermind" just use Bitcoin any way (and besides Bitcoin's true main market and use case is not for ideological perfect decentralized currency but rather as the unit-of-account for decentralized crypto-gambling).

Edit: this video explanation from MA, seems to indicate the FALSE MOVE described above, is expected to continue until 2017.95! Again this is really wow! So USD, USA stocks, gold, and Bitcoin could decline from this June or August until the end of 2017! Wow! The years 2018 and 2019 are going to hell on earth. We will see massive economic collapse, as well a global pandemic might resurface during this period (according to MA's cyclic models of pandemics).

MA's model provides key dates and it provides indications such as "Panic Cycle", "Directional Change", etc. on each asset analyzed. His model also provides "if this, then that" benchmarks on price reversals in both directions.

From this, the speculator can watch the market and try to interpret how the real world is matching the model and then infer decisions with a much better than 50% probability.

Something important does always happen on the ECM turn dates. For example:

1. On March 13/14 2016, the deadcat bounce of Baltic Sea index (measure of the world's trade activity) rolled over and started to decline again.

2. On 2015.75, was precisely the event that began WW3 and the stage of the conflict that sent the migrants invading Europe:

Putin invaded Syria precisely on September 30, 2015, which was to the day of 2015.75. That warned that whatever takes place right on the day becomes the main focus. Putin then withdrew precisely on pi day. So what is taking place from the Middle East will break the back of Europe economically as governments seek to raise taxes to pay for the pretend “refugees” as well as extremists who have infiltrated Europe and destabilized its borders and security. This is unwinding the entire freedom of movement within Europe which was the cornerstone of the EU concept. With borders resurfacing, Brussels begins its decline.

Even 9/11 took place right on our pi target from the peak in the ECM. This is starting to demonstrate that there is, in fact, a cycle to this type of activity that is following the 8.6 frequency. The Madrid attack on the train was March 11, 2004, or 2004.19. If we project target dates from the USA 9/11 incident, we arrive at 2004.16, which was March 1 or 10 days earlier before the attack. We have been running various terrorist attacks through our models. The list is indeed long (see Wikipedia). Nonetheless, it appears that certain groups do fall into unique cycle frequencies. This appears to enable one to determine which group was behind what.

2002.780 Indonesia Bali Oct 12, 2002
2002.810 Moscow October 23, 2002
2003.372 Morocco, Casablanca May 16, 2003
2003.361 Riyadh Saudi Arabia May 12, 2003
2003.887 Turkey, Istanbul November 20, 2003
2004.191 Madrid March 11, 2004
2004.668 Beslan, Russia September 1 – 3, 2004

Let’s face the facts. The Economic Confidence Model works with such precision it is often mind-numbing. This is monitoring human activity as a coherent, collective economic entity of “civilization” that materializes by people coming together. I suppose it makes sense that we are influenced collectively to respond with a cyclical rhythm. It appears the same is reflected in terrorist activity.

3. From my March, 2009 essay:

I don't know if anyone else has commented already, that Martin Armstrong's "It Is Just Time" prediction made back in October 2008, for a major turn event on March 19, nailed the exact day (after) the Fed announced to start buying government bonds directly.

He had also predicted ahead of time the turn that coincided with the peak in the precious metals prices last March 2008.

Google "Martin Armstrong", for the remarkable story about how accurate his computer model predictions have been, and him being in the maximum security prison without a trial, together with the Shoe Bomber and the Unibomber, alledgedly because of his unwillingness to share his model with the CIA.

[STT]

Martin Armstrong is not wrong about rising interest rates. They are coming as predicted. He never gave a specific date for interest rates to rise. It was only that trend would start 2015.75, which it did. The acceleration is coming. Hold on to your underwear.

I need to read this guy more often maybe as I do agree however timing is everything.   It could be said to be absolutely obvious rates have to rise, after all they cant go any lower.  Oh wait, they just did at least in Europe and Japan.  
I think negative rates is fairly close to the tail end of this mess as its causing destruction to finance services apparently, with many tasks useful to business apparently no longer especially viable.  Where the state which is a failed indebted system encroaches increasingly upon previously honest profitable business then its a negative surely

[TPTB_need_war]

Follow up to my prior post:

QUESTION: my normal logical mind tells me that whenever interest rates rise, money gets more expensive, so consequently the only true reason for doing so would be that underlying economic data shows the economy is doing well and can do without ‘help’.

A simple mind like I am tells me that a stock index should rise in case of a well doing economy. Instead I only hear markets fear a interest rate hike. Seems to me that the collective wants interest rates remain low, so stockindex growth driven higher by debt.

ANSWER: The fundamentals flipped after the shift from a private to public wave following 1929. Under the pre-1929 economics of laissez-faire, the government did not attempt to manipulate society with monetary policy. They attempted to lower U.S. interest rates to deflect capital inflows back to Europe, but they did not practice manipulating interest rates domestically to try to manage the economy. Therefore, raising interest rates before 1929 was often seen as bullish because it showed there was a demand for borrowing money due to economic expansion.

Today, the fundamentals are interpreted through the eyes of Marxism. Raising interest rates is now considered a punishment to society intended to deter them from borrowing. Yet, deflation involves declining interest rates due to the lack of interest to borrow. Some say that higher rates are bad for stocks, but they are solely looking at it as a punitive measure that will cost people more to borrow. You even have people cheering gold with lower interest rates.

None of this makes any sense economically. Nonetheless, we are looking at a sharp rise in stocks and gold along with rising interest rates, which will confuse everyone. Interest rates are the manifestation of expected inflation. If you think inflation will be 10%, you will lose money if you lend it at 5%. Interest rates are the price of expected inflation alongside the perceived risk.

Therefore, everything will take off to the upside and the majority, whom will be following the Marxist version of fundamentals, will feed the rally because they will be short. This view of fundamentals will eventually flip back, but only when the public at large sees this flip and goes with it. That is the point of no return where confidence in government collapses.

[btcbug]

Great commentary guys!

I'm just gonna keep hodling my BTC because I bought a long time ago. To me it makes more sense than trying to trade based on these possible scenarios and timings. Of course i'll be looking to sell into a bubble if that might happen at any time in the next several years, which imo is a much higher probability than it plummeting to low double digits.

[sidhujag]

So this means we might not get a crash in Bitcoin and gold at this time if they are still anti-correlated to the US dollar and US stocks. We might be looking at "happy speculating days are here again" for another 1.5 years!! OMG!!  

Hilarious, so no gold under $850 or Bitcoin under $150 this year. When predictions don't come true, you just make a new one Fed ain't raising no rates, they are searching for every possible excuse not to raise them and they are succeeding every Fed meeting, the one they did in December was a game of chicken, they learned they are the chicken. Hyperinflation baby. Bitcoin I am not sure, it's crippled by chinese miners, it can go belly up any minute.

lol, moving targets. He is trying to be prophet, yet he knows shit what will happen. I remember last year how he preached about BTC and Gold hitting the bottom. Since then BTC up 100%, Gold up +20%.

His problem is that he is trying to explain and predict what is going to happen with freebies that MA puts out here and there. Well, even MA was wrong this time, even though he won't admit it.

I did not have a copy of the gold report from last year, but someone I communicate with did. He told me the benchmarks indicated that gold would "most likely" still make lower lows (e.g. < $1050, with the first target for a bottom of $850), and that the first possible timeframe for the low was end of Q1 2016 (contrary to what I was thinking was just after 2015.75). Upon learning that, I stopped thinking Bitcoin would move lower than the mid $200s before then.

The benchmarks stated that the USA dollar and and USA stocks had to start moving in unison as another criteria and if this wasn't the case, then the benchmark low would be pushed out in time until they do.

Thus none of his predictions have failed. Those who expect him to say "this will happen on this date" are building a strawman illogic, because MA never predicts such. His method is to provide a "if this, then that" analysis of the computer model's outputs. As I explained my post yesterday upthread, since the Euro has made MONTHLY BULLISH reversals, this indicates a move back into the Euro by the speculation markes with a potential top 117 to 125+. Thus this indicates that the USA dollar will not just break out to the upside yet (i.e. that the world's capital is not yet fleeing to seek safe haven in the USA dollar which will come eventually). And the USA stock market has been up recently, so still out-of-sync with the USA dollar. So the interpretation of this appears to be that prediction markets are expect a "No" result for the upcoming BREXIT vote this June 23, 2016. Thus USA dollar down, and if USA stocks also follow the USA dollar down, then this would be the FALSE MOVE (moving in unison) that would load the SLINGSHOT move to the upside for the newly aligned safe haven assets of the dollar, USA stocks, gold, Bitcoin, collectibles, tangibles (e.g. land), etc.. Thus the earliest date (which is also confirmed by the computer model) is the May/June followed by August, etc..

What appears to be the most likely outcome is that the EU will experience a resurgence of hot money inflows due to the "Remain" result for the BREXIT referendum. This will be a deadcat bounce extremis while the fundamentals will grow worse (fiscal, debt, migrant crises). If the USA dollar and USA stocks both decline at the same time due to this shift of the movement of hot money to the EU, Euro, UK pound, Europe stocks, then it means the world will become less risk adverse for that brief period, which will send gold down also since gold is a hedge against government failure. Whether Bitcoin also follows down is not stated by MA's model, because he isn't tracking it. But the USA dollar and USA stocks coming into alignment, would mean all safe haven assets go down. The likely event triggering such for Bitcoin is the exhale for the priced in expectation of price rise on the July halving, and also the realization that Blockstream's SegWit scaling solution is inadequate without more "soft version forks' later, but the realization that inserting this "soft fork versioning" in Bitcoin's protocol along with Blockstream cooperating with China's 65+% share (to increase on the halving as marginal miners fall away) of mining control means that Bitcoin is no longer a decentralized currency and thus Bitcoin has failed. But later the markets will rebound when they realize "nevermind" just use Bitcoin any way (and besides Bitcoin's true main market and use case is not for ideological perfect decentralized currency but rather as the unit-of-account for decentralized crypto-gambling).

Edit: this video explanation from MA, seems to indicate the FALSE MOVE described above, is expected to continue until 2017.95! Again this is really wow! So USD, USA stocks, gold, and Bitcoin could decline from this June or August until the end of 2017! Wow! The years 2018 and 2019 are going to hell on earth. We will see massive economic collapse, as well a global pandemic might resurface during this period (according to MA's cyclic models of pandemics).

MA's model provides key dates and it provides indications such as "Panic Cycle", "Directional Change", etc. on each asset analyzed. His model also provides "if this, then that" benchmarks on price reversals in both directions.

From this, the speculator can watch the market and try to interpret how the real world is matching the model and then infer decisions with a much better than 50% probability.

Something important does always happen on the ECM turn dates. For example:

1. On March 13/14 2016, the deadcat bounce of Baltic Sea index (measure of the world's trade activity) rolled over and started to decline again.

2. On 2015.75, was precisely the event that began WW3 and the stage of the conflict that sent the migrants invading Europe:

Putin invaded Syria precisely on September 30, 2015, which was to the day of 2015.75. That warned that whatever takes place right on the day becomes the main focus. Putin then withdrew precisely on pi day. So what is taking place from the Middle East will break the back of Europe economically as governments seek to raise taxes to pay for the pretend “refugees” as well as extremists who have infiltrated Europe and destabilized its borders and security. This is unwinding the entire freedom of movement within Europe which was the cornerstone of the EU concept. With borders resurfacing, Brussels begins its decline.

Even 9/11 took place right on our pi target from the peak in the ECM. This is starting to demonstrate that there is, in fact, a cycle to this type of activity that is following the 8.6 frequency. The Madrid attack on the train was March 11, 2004, or 2004.19. If we project target dates from the USA 9/11 incident, we arrive at 2004.16, which was March 1 or 10 days earlier before the attack. We have been running various terrorist attacks through our models. The list is indeed long (see Wikipedia). Nonetheless, it appears that certain groups do fall into unique cycle frequencies. This appears to enable one to determine which group was behind what.

2002.780 Indonesia Bali Oct 12, 2002
2002.810 Moscow October 23, 2002
2003.372 Morocco, Casablanca May 16, 2003
2003.361 Riyadh Saudi Arabia May 12, 2003
2003.887 Turkey, Istanbul November 20, 2003
2004.191 Madrid March 11, 2004
2004.668 Beslan, Russia September 1 – 3, 2004

Let’s face the facts. The Economic Confidence Model works with such precision it is often mind-numbing. This is monitoring human activity as a coherent, collective economic entity of “civilization” that materializes by people coming together. I suppose it makes sense that we are influenced collectively to respond with a cyclical rhythm. It appears the same is reflected in terrorist activity.

3. From my March, 2009 essay:

I don't know if anyone else has commented already, that Martin Armstrong's "It Is Just Time" prediction made back in October 2008, for a major turn event on March 19, nailed the exact day (after) the Fed announced to start buying government bonds directly.

He had also predicted ahead of time the turn that coincided with the peak in the precious metals prices last March 2008.

Google "Martin Armstrong", for the remarkable story about how accurate his computer model predictions have been, and him being in the maximum security prison without a trial, together with the Shoe Bomber and the Unibomber, alledgedly because of his unwillingness to share his model with the CIA.

well my financial astrologist does the same thing... planets affect moods. He says dow 32k with usd and us equities rising together (which already started). Hes bearish gold. Has never really been that wrong.

[minor-transgression]

"The inflation / deflation "recipe" the Elite are using is more advanced than single-dimensional classical analysis. They are inflating the debt-markets (otherwise they go bust by non-refinancing / non-rollover of debt) and deflating the small guy. Large debt markets get refunded and the small guy gets a liquidity crunch or a problematic daily costs / daily income ratio (if he doesn't own any loans)." - AlexGR

Great post.

I'd add that the Elite have less control than you suggest. They can front-run, mislead,
change the timing a little (otherwise MA would be wrong) but they cannot magically
increase productivity, nor can they revoke the laws of economies of scale. Eventually,
that's going to cause some pain.

[TPTB_need_war]

Exactly. MA does worse than a coinlip on average. His reverals target "forecasting" is so hilarious I can't understand how he is able to even publish shit like that   I'll bet he counts on that enough people reading do not understand trading and markets at all, or backtesting.

well my financial astrologist does the same thing... planets affect moods. He says dow 32k with usd and us equities rising together (which already started). Hes bearish gold. Has never really been that wrong.

Hey idiots as I had explained before in the quote below, the point is the investor can react to the market action with greater than 50% odds. You guys are too dumb to understand that a prediction for a static point in time with no conditionals, is a point sample and point samples are subject to aliasing error; thus MA does not provide such ridiculous point sample predictions. You try to force his statements to be point sample predictions, thus it is unsurprising that you see his statements as a failure. I won't bother to explain fundamental relevant science to you such as the Shannon-Nyquist Sampling Theorem, Fractals, and Chaos Theory, because you are too dumb to understand.

Armstrong is for smart people. The low IQ trolls need not apply.

The benchmarks stated that the USA dollar and and USA stocks had to start moving in unison as another criteria and if this wasn't the case, then the benchmark low would be pushed out in time until they do.

Thus none of his predictions have failed. Those who expect him to say "this will happen on this date" are building a strawman illogic, because MA never predicts such. His method is to provide a "if this, then that" analysis of the computer model's outputs.

[...]

MA's model provides key dates and it provides indications such as "Panic Cycle", "Directional Change", etc. on each asset analyzed. His model also provides "if this, then that" benchmarks on price reversals in both directions.

From this, the speculator can watch the market and try to interpret how the real world is matching the model and then infer decisions with a much better than 50% probability.

Something important does always happen on the ECM turn dates. For example:

[...]

[TPTB_need_war]

I'd add that the Elite have less control than you suggest...

Who is you? I had written the same point:

Edit: you also believe in the totality of the elite's "monopoly" control.

[TPTB_need_war]

For the Martin Amstrong critics, chomp on this:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/does-randomness-even-exist/

Don't forget my thought provoking theoretical physics post upthread wherein I explained entropy grows unbounded in the small details, not in the large fractal cycles correlated in Chaos theory. And include my 2013 blog post on the matter of the Universe.

[OROBTC]

For the Martin Amstrong critics, chomp on this:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/does-randomness-even-exist/

Don't forget my thought provoking theoretical physics post upthread wherein I explained entropy grows unbounded in the small details, not in the large fractal cycles correlated in Chaos theory. And include my 2013 blog post on the matter of the Universe.

I found four things of interest to me in that Armstrong post:

1)  He sure has a lot of fawning fans...

2)  He has a valid point on how .gov claims randomness, other than politicians who promise they can affect things.

3)  Similarly, they toss him in jail for manipulating the world economy (that they earlier said was random).

4)  He specifically mentioned that his system learns when detecting new patterns.

I presume that each year that he gathers more data he (and his computer) will learn more.  A VERY interesting project.

[TPTB_need_war]

Ignorant or disingenuous troll BulglaryWizard put on ignore.

[TPTB_need_war]

Click this quote to read what Gmaxwell and others will respond:

Wholly shit! I am contemplating the possibility that Craig has revealed that who ever created Bitcoin put a backdoor in it!

As I already explained, the signature Craig has provided proves either he has cracked something about the way Bitcoin uses SHA256 or he has Satoshi's private key. Afaics, there are no other mathematical possibilities.

But note this small detail:

You'll note that Bitcoin, for reasons known only to Satoshi, takes the signature of hash of a hash to generate the scriptSig. Quoting Ryan:

Well that isn't so insignificant of a detail when you think more about it in this context.

A cryptographic hash function has a property named collision resistance. Collision resistance is related to preimage resistance in that if we have a way to quickly find collisions, then if the preimage is collision then we also break the preimage resistance for that particular hash value.

Collision resistance is normally stated as the number of hash attempts required to find a collision or the number of rounds to break collision resistance with reasonable hardware. Normally this is exponentially less than computing the SHA256 hash function 2²⁵⁶ times. For SHA256, there are collision resistance attacks up to 46 of the 64 rounds of SHA256 (and 52 of 64 rounds for preimage attack).

So what happens to collision (and preimage in this context) resistance when we hash the hash? Well all the collisions from the first application of hash become collisions in the second hash, plus the new collisions in the second application of the hash thus increasing the number of rounds that can be attacked.

It seems likely that Craig has identified the back door that was placed in Bitcoin as explained above, and used his supercomputer access to find a preimage of SHA256.

If am correct, this is major news and Bitcoin could crash.

I urge immediately peer review of my statements by other experts. I have not really thought deeply about this. This is just written very quickly off the top of my head. I am busy working on other things and can't put much time into this.

I have now reviewed your analysis and have concluded you are talking out of your ass.

Please provide technical justification.

It's increasingly obvious that despite not being able to present actual cryptographic proof Wright is putting a lot of effort into obfuscation and trying to sway the public opinion, whether it's for his business interests or something else.

You do not seem to understand the math. Either Craig broke SHA256 or he has Satoshi's private key.

You do not seem to understand that linking to your own post doesn't prove anything. Can you post the public key, the message Wright signed, and the signature for everyone to see and verify?

The analysis was provided by others already. The review of that is ongoing here.

You, my friend are peerless; there can be no review of your work.

Do you enjoy being a troll?

You trolls can eat your words now.

[sidhujag]

Its becoming more and more clear you are not going to reqlly innovate are you.. you are here to troll bitcoin because you are butthurt for not getting in below $100.. makes sense now. Btw i still think its nash