Martin Armstrong Discussion

[vapourminer]

If y’all are wondering why you’re not receiving replies…

As predicted, if y’all click your Profile →Profile Settings →Personal Message Options, you’ll notice that “Allow newbies to send you PMs.” is unchecked. This change was apparently made automatically recently to every established member’s account so as to prevent Newbies like myself from private messaging you...

Interesting. Though on checking my profile just now, “Allow newbies to send you PMs.” is checked (I've never edited the setting). Have they changed it back again I wonder?

mine had been unchecked. and i sure didnt do anything.

[1713431096]

1713431096

[1713431096]

1713431096

[thejaytiesto]

If y’all are wondering why you’re not receiving replies…

As predicted, if y’all click your Profile →Profile Settings →Personal Message Options, you’ll notice that “Allow newbies to send you PMs.” is unchecked. This change was apparently made automatically recently to every established member’s account so as to prevent Newbies like myself from private messaging you...

Interesting. Though on checking my profile just now, “Allow newbies to send you PMs.” is checked (I've never edited the setting). Have they changed it back again I wonder?

mine had been unchecked. and i sure didnt do anything.

Interesting, mine was also unchecked by default. I understand it because I get non stop newbies spamming me shit, but I would like some updates by CRED.me.

Still haven't seen a good reply by you addressing how gold's supposed "organic total supply" is better than following hard-coded rules. Money it's all a social construct so people don't kill each other... why not have it as a clear, open source set of rules rather than a random "organic supply" which can make your wealth crash if a ton of it is found somewhere? also the fact that gold is useless in the 21th century still applies. There are cameras everywhere, scanners.. forget about financial privacy with it. I don't see why goldbugs always don't see that while claiming financial privacy digitally is impossible.

Bitcoin going up and down is a given, let's see when it's half gold's marketcap.

[realr0ach]

Still haven't seen a good reply by you addressing how gold's supposed "organic total supply" is better than following hard-coded rules. Money it's all a social construct so people don't kill each other... why not have it as a clear, open source set of rules

That was the most statist, bullshit answer I've ever seen.  It reminded me of that Mefobills guy from Zerohedge who everyone pretends is smart, yet all of his solutions revolve around giving govt 100% power and control over everything.  There's no such thing as "clear, open source rules".  Who are these "rules" created and enforced by?  Force is the only valid consensus mechanism.  If it has no force, it's not actually a rule.  There are only two methods of consensus, either using force to make convergence happen, or relying on the aggregate of all actors (aka invisible hand of the market) to form a functioning Schelling point.

Bitcoin was modeled after a war game exercise, and the PoW function mimics this force variable, but it's fake force.  Force in the real world always takes precedent over any imaginary, digital force.  Bitcoin has built-in middlemen and doesn't remove counter party risk.  Transactions are not blinded either.  If some govt goons want to come stand in the mining buildings while labeling anyone who doesn't worship them as terrorists and block their transactions, it's not a monetary system, it's a permissioned ledger aka tyranny.

This is why anyone who supports such garbage that doesn't remove middlemen or counter party risk is inherently a statist.  You're claiming everyone on the planet must be at the mercy of variables outside of their control instead of being able to take their life in their own hands.  Since it's not actually possible to create a decentralized digital currency, and they're generally all completely arbitrary, dysfunctional, designed to centralize, Rube Goldberg machines that don't remove middlemen or counter party risk, you would need to be a complete fucking fool to think such a thing could compete with the fundamentals of noble metals as the base of Exter's Pyramid.

If you are not mentally deficient and have identified the fundamentals of things like metals as having better store of value properties (how could an imaginary object that functions as a permissioned ledger due to not removing middlemen have good store of value properties?), then you would know the only possible way for cryptocurrency to win is by the state forcing them on people.  Once again making you a statist if you advocate them because the invisible hand of the market would never value their monetary fundamentals like being a store of value as higher.

[realr0ach]

Soon the Jews will be expelled again for attempting to form a state within a state and practicing subterfuge against their host nation for over the 100th time in a row:

http://dailystormer.red/russia-insider-goes-full-gas-the-kikes-head-editor-reveals-his-power-levels/

[realr0ach]

And another reason cryptocurrency is a dead end compared to metals:

@roach:

The three big problems I see with gold are that:

1. It can't be sent over the internet

Neither can bitcoins.  I think my estimates when I ran the numbers a long time ago was that for bitcoin to have market penetration in the upper middle class globally, it would need 8 MB blocks and then only transactions of something like $5-$10k would be economical. That's WITHOUT any cartel-type of activity artificially jacking up fees to the moon.

With such a system, to "be your own bank", you would store the bitcoins yourself, then transfer something like $10k worth at a time to a 3rd party bitcoin debit card service or whatever.  In other words, there is virtually ZERO DIFFERENCE compared to being your own banker using silver or gold because you can do the exact same thing there:  store metals in your own safe/vault, and transfer $10k at a time to a debit card service when you want to spend.  

This is one reason bitcoin is virtually useless.  It can't compete against metals at all as the base of Exter's Pyramid (aka the prime settlement layer).  The winner of the base of Exter's Pyramid is determined by what asset is capable of removing the most risk.  Bitcoin has built-in middlemen and doesn't remove counter party risk, so it's a complete dud in that competition.  You're essentially attempting to run a 2-legged horse in a race and pretending the invisible hand of the market isn't going to crush you.

Since bitcoin is a currency and not money, it's value has to be derived from transaction flow and not stock (settlement), so the LN would have a better chance at competing, but still, at the end of the day, if people believe both the bitcoin market cap AND metals market cap were peaked, they would dump bitcoin for metals anyway.  Why? If there is no money to be made, money takes a flight to safety.  Bitcoin can be destroyed by more black swans than you can count, while it requires a black hole hitting the earth to black swan metals.

As you can see, it's completely impossible for bitcoin to defeat metals as a settlement system.  Nobody wants to bag hold an imaginary token that can vaporize at any second unless they believe the price is going up.  It's too dangerous.  Unlike most children on this forum, you should be educated enough to understand it's not possible for the market cap to go up forever and the ramifications of what happens once people figure out that point has been reached.  

Hal Finney is right.  Bitcoin only functions as a settlement layer.  He just forgot to mention bitcoin as a settlement layer is completely useless when silver and gold already exist.

[thejaytiesto]

Who are these "rules" created and enforced by?  Force is the only valid consensus mechanism.  If it has no force, it's not actually a rule.  There are only two methods of consensus, either using force to make convergence happen, or relying on the aggregate of all actors (aka invisible hand of the market) to form a functioning Schelling point.

Bitcoin was modeled after a war game exercise, and the PoW function mimics this force variable, but it's fake force.  Force in the real world always takes precedent over any imaginary, digital force.  Bitcoin has built-in middlemen and doesn't remove counter party risk.  Transactions are not blinded either.  If some govt goons want to come stand in the mining buildings while labeling anyone who doesn't worship them as terrorists and block their transactions, it's not a monetary system, it's a permissioned ledger aka tyranny.

Everything is a set of rules but you may be under the delusion that this isn't the case. Accepting this fact doesn't make me a "statist". Who/what set the rules of the properties of what makes gold gold? how do you know we are not in a computer simulation and someone didn't program the properties of gold to be gold? You are not forced to use bitcoin and you are not forced to use gold. Nobody can change the rules of bitcoin because trying to do so will always result in 2 coins (and you will receive tokens on the other end always).

All that matters is the certainty that:

1) When you wake up, your X amount of BTC will be X amount of BTC
2) The total supply is known (so in the future when huge gold mines are found outside of earth, unlike you or whoever inherits your gold will not have their purchasing power plummet to the ground because gold will be as abundant as seashells, and trust me, when this happens -and it will- whoever holding gold will not give a fuck about how "the total supply of gold is organic"), rules are transparent, nobody can change the fundamentals, nobody is forcing you to use it but you are forced to follow these rules if you want to use it, perpetual incentive to mine it by someone.

Please tell me when was the last time someone changed bitcoin "in his basement by snapping his fingers". Last time I checked, this never happened, also transactions have never been censored and so on. So far it works. Bitcoin is shit? sure, but it's the best we got so far, and yes, it's better than any piece of metal in the 21st century. Gold was great, when cameras and scanners didn't exist.

With such a system, to "be your own bank", you would store the bitcoins yourself, then transfer something like $10k worth at a time to a 3rd party bitcoin debit card service or whatever.  In other words, there is virtually ZERO DIFFERENCE compared to being your own banker using silver or gold because you can do the exact same thing there:  store metals in your own safe/vault, and transfer $10k at a time to a debit card service when you want to spend.  

Lol at zero difference. The difference is you could put a $billion worth of BTC in an USB encrypted or you could just email yourself the wallet file in an encrypted file which is perfectly fine to do temporarily to not carry anything while you take a flight. Also you could digitally hide it for plausible deniability, meanwhile anyone with a $5 wrench could force you to open your vault or else he'll fuck you up, and im sure you value your life above your gold.
With gold you are stuck where you are forever, with no chances for plausible deniability if your vault is found. For this reason alone, BTC is better than useless gold. No matter how shit Bitcoin can be, nobody gives a fuck about gold in 2018. Until someone can fix what makes Bitcoin shit, there's no point in selling it for metals.

[CRED.me]

Re: Quinlan Associates: Bitcoin Price will Crash to $1,800 in 2018

The only people who care, are those who need to sell or buy. The crypto ecosystem is on an unstoppable path. Even if the entire world bans ICOs, centralized exchanges, and all of SegWit is stolen and BTC is reverted to Satoshi’s protocol, there are developments in the ecosystem that will continue the march forward. All of those adverse events could set us back into another 2 - 3 year crypto winter if they’re severe and widespread. Seems though far-fetched or premature at this time. We should be climbing a wall of worry heading towards the nosebleed level that eventually does lead to the next crypto winter. Feels more like a bear trap in a vertical market, although the severity of the correction is alarming and we should give some weight to the possibility that we’re in the start of another crypto winter.

The 2011 bubble went from $32 to $2.

And the 2013 bubble from $1200 to $150. So the winters are becoming more shallow (and less V shaped with a longer duration for new ATHs) which is to be expected from a maturing and larger ecosystem. So the next crypto winter may only be a shallower decline but may require years for a new ATH? If we drop through the long-term support ~$7000, then I will be worried that new ATHs could be years from now.

Whether BTC bounces at $10K or not, looks like we’re headed down to long-term support in the vicinity of a 61.8% Fibonacci correction. If we drop below that then $4000 and an 80% correction crypto winter could be upon us.

I’m still leaning towards this is a bear trap for the newbies who rushed in and bought recently. Many will panic sell at $7000. Then I still think we’re on target for $40 – $100K over the next 18 months. However, if the ramp up of ICO cease & desist orders, banning of exchanges in Asia, and adverse tax rulings spreads along with a potential SegWit theft attack (if it occurred sooner than anticipated), then a crypto winter is possible now.

My gut is we bottom $7000ish and be back above $20K by late May after the Nasdaq futures are launched. I'm thinking TPTB are just shaking the trees now to profit on their shorts and reload. They’ll take this to nosebleed levels before attacking SegWit, in order to maximize the number of greater fools. The reload will enable more of Wallstreet to get on board before the next big run.

James A. Donald (first guy who responded to Satoshi on the mailing list for the Bitcoin announcement) a short-term contrarian indicator for the BTC price.

Yet it’s pisser for me that I have to spend BTC on developers at a lower value for next several intense months of development. I’ll probably sell more into any if any deadcat bounce off the $10k level.

Note we should be expecting a rollercoaster ride (c.f. How to Trade a Vertical Market) in 2018 but not an outside reversal (i.e. no change of trend into a crypto winter):

QUESTION: You said 2018 was a Panic Cycle Year and that it would be unlikely to create an outside reversal in the Dow, but we should expect wild times ahead. Is this panic cycle impacting many other markets as well?

ANSWER: Yes. This is the beginning of the Monetary Crisis Cycle that will go into 2021. That is probably where we will see the dollar rally break the world monetary system. This year, we should expect most markets to test BOTH sides of the game so pay attention to the Global Market Watch and the Reversals. This will tell us when the trends shift. There will be the classic fool who thinks that just because the euro finally exceed last year’s high or gold has rallied that this is it and that means the next four years will be the same.

Panic Cycles are notorious for trapping people on either the long or short side. You always have to trap the majority in order to create the slingshot to the upside of the waterfall to the downside. This is why they remain fools for they rush in based upon a few day’s price action. So far, everything is running its course.

We are not picking up any real net capital outflows from the USA to Europe. It appears to be speculation on the currency markets [causing rising Euro] in anticipation of higher interest rates coming down the line. But real capital has not begun to move and will not seriously move in until there are higher positive rates.

More concerning has been net outflows from the USA to emerging market debt. This has been a trend led by pension funds trying to earn higher yields. They need higher returns to try to cover net losses in interest income because of the lower rates. This is very dangerous for when the dollar reverses and rises into 2021, that emerging market debt will go into default.

Lol at zero difference.

Update: overloading the name zero.

http://dailystormer.red/russia-insider-goes-full-gas-the-kikes-head-editor-reveals-his-power-levels/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgLbAzhCgBY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FISNOewkwHQ

Regarding the alleged widespread lying media in Germany (ostensibly controlled by the Zionists) he discusses in the above linked video, note that the corporate tax burden in Germany (and Europe) was 10 - 20% lower than the USA before the Trump tax cut of the corporate tax from 35% to 21%:

https://home.kpmg.com/xx/en/home/services/tax/tax-tools-and-resources/tax-rates-online/corporate-tax-rates-table.html

The European “cattle” (chattel) have excessively high personal tax burdens and low taxes on their Zionist elite. It’s indicative of a dying paradigm of the industrial age and fixed capital investment Theory of the Firm usurists.

Conspiracy theory might hypothesize that Trump was put into office by Rothshilds controlled Wikileaks for a reason. He is lowering their taxes, reducing regulations on their business such as offshore drilling, and helping to foment the next breakout of major war in the world. And providing the polarization of US politics so that the Zionists can radicalize their liberal base of zombies when Kissinger sends in the promised blue hats to take on the “you can take my gun from my cold dead hand” militias.

Is decentralization dissemination of information undermining them?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5P4ClawlfOo

Gold is not at all involved in this decentralization of information. It’s analogous to the comparison of the value of mechanically crushed gravel compared to etched silicon. The intellectual property component of the valuation is orders-of-magnitude differentiated. @r0ach (@realr0ach) why can’t you comprehend that purely monetary stored value is dying, because the industrial age and fixed capital investment is dying. Why can’t you comprehend my essay, “Rise of Knowledge, Demise of Finance”? You’re as myopic as the Luddites, who couldn’t accept that technology had changed the economics from their antiquated, truculent understanding of the world.

So you think the Zionists can maintain centralized control over all information technology just because they presumably control Internet trunk lines? What about 3D printers that can manufacture 3D printers? Line-of-sight WiFi can transmit over great distances, etc. It’s like trying to stop the production of moonshine.

There’s anti-fragility in the millions of programmers now. And zero is being overloaded to empower more of them. Physical control is an oxymoron now. Anything physical can be ameliorated with decentralized intellectual innovation now.

[sidhujag]

Who are these "rules" created and enforced by?  Force is the only valid consensus mechanism.  If it has no force, it's not actually a rule.  There are only two methods of consensus, either using force to make convergence happen, or relying on the aggregate of all actors (aka invisible hand of the market) to form a functioning Schelling point.

Bitcoin was modeled after a war game exercise, and the PoW function mimics this force variable, but it's fake force.  Force in the real world always takes precedent over any imaginary, digital force.  Bitcoin has built-in middlemen and doesn't remove counter party risk.  Transactions are not blinded either.  If some govt goons want to come stand in the mining buildings while labeling anyone who doesn't worship them as terrorists and block their transactions, it's not a monetary system, it's a permissioned ledger aka tyranny.

Everything is a set of rules but you may be under the delusion that this isn't the case. Accepting this fact doesn't make me a "statist". Who/what set the rules of the properties of what makes gold gold? how do you know we are not in a computer simulation and someone didn't program the properties of gold to be gold? You are not forced to use bitcoin and you are not forced to use gold. Nobody can change the rules of bitcoin because trying to do so will always result in 2 coins (and you will receive tokens on the other end always).

All that matters is the certainty that:

1) When you wake up, your X amount of BTC will be X amount of BTC
2) The total supply is known (so in the future when huge gold mines are found outside of earth, unlike you or whoever inherits your gold will not have their purchasing power plummet to the ground because gold will be as abundant as seashells, and trust me, when this happens -and it will- whoever holding gold will not give a fuck about how "the total supply of gold is organic"), rules are transparent, nobody can change the fundamentals, nobody is forcing you to use it but you are forced to follow these rules if you want to use it, perpetual incentive to mine it by someone.

Please tell me when was the last time someone changed bitcoin "in his basement by snapping his fingers". Last time I checked, this never happened, also transactions have never been censored and so on. So far it works. Bitcoin is shit? sure, but it's the best we got so far, and yes, it's better than any piece of metal in the 21st century. Gold was great, when cameras and scanners didn't exist.

With such a system, to "be your own bank", you would store the bitcoins yourself, then transfer something like $10k worth at a time to a 3rd party bitcoin debit card service or whatever.  In other words, there is virtually ZERO DIFFERENCE compared to being your own banker using silver or gold because you can do the exact same thing there:  store metals in your own safe/vault, and transfer $10k at a time to a debit card service when you want to spend.  

Lol at zero difference. The difference is you could put a $billion worth of BTC in an USB encrypted or you could just email yourself the wallet file in an encrypted file which is perfectly fine to do temporarily to not carry anything while you take a flight. Also you could digitally hide it for plausible deniability, meanwhile anyone with a $5 wrench could force you to open your vault or else he'll fuck you up, and im sure you value your life above your gold.
With gold you are stuck where you are forever, with no chances for plausible deniability if your vault is found. For this reason alone, BTC is better than useless gold. No matter how shit Bitcoin can be, nobody gives a fuck about gold in 2018. Until someone can fix what makes Bitcoin shit, there's no point in selling it for metals.

He keeps repeating the same garbage. People like him are the sheep in the markets that get slaughtered they do not know innovation if it slapped them in the face. Theres no point in continuing his banter since we know its baseless. Ive already showed him how bitcoin is the bottom of the new exters pyramid and thus serves backbone of all speculative assets. It is 100x better than gold and fiat is even 2x better than gold. Some people will never get it cause financially they are hedging against it.

[realr0ach]

Ive already showed him how bitcoin is the bottom of the new exters pyramid

LOL what a joke.  You are the most dishonest dirtbag on this entire forum.  The base of Exter's Pyramid is mostly about whatever asset removes the most risk.  Bitcoin has built-in, rent seeking middlemen and doesn't even remove counter party risk.  Plus it can be destroyed by more black swans than you can count, while it requires a black hole hitting the earth to black swan metals.

Bitcoin is a complete dud attempting to compete in that department as the base of Exter's Pyramid.  You need to either be stupid or some type of chronic liar to think people will believe your lies.  Anyone capable of objective, elementary level fundamental analysis can tell you're wrong, so you only make yourself look like an idiot each time you type it.  Then you have the fact it's not possible to create a decentralized digital currency in the first place, only ones designed to centralize, so they are all nothing more than federated chains in the end - permissioned ledger slavery systems.

[CRED.me]

Я пpocтo нaшeл пpeдмeт, кoтopый излaгaeт пpиятнoe чтeниe (нe тo, чтo я coглaceн co вceми иx мнeниями). Этo интepecнaя cтaтья; тeбe пoнpaвитcя.

Note I’ve since come to understand that Eastern Europe and Russia may have a brighter future. And Australia is in worse shape than I thought.

Ive already showed him how bitcoin is the bottom of the new exters pyramid

LOL what a joke.  You are the most dishonest dirtbag on this entire forum.  The base of Exter's Pyramid is mostly about whatever asset removes the most risk.  Bitcoin has built-in, rent seeking middlemen and doesn't even remove counter party risk.  Plus it can be destroyed by more black swans than you can count, while it requires a black hole hitting the earth to black swan metals.

Exter’s Pyramid is a theory by a former central banker. It’s not a proven hypothesis.

Armstrong has explained that Exter’s Pyramid is not always applicable. There have been several examples in human history where the collapse was so Mad Max that only food was money and gold was entirely useless. What use was it for burying your gold in the ground for 600 years (in Japan for example and again in Western Europe) waiting for the Dark Age to be over?

And thousands of examples in human history where the collapse didn’t go far enough off the rails for gold to be necessary. This is the usual outcome. Armstrong has explained that gold only serves a safety role in a very limited type of collapse that is bad enough but not so bad and only during about the first 2 years of such a collapse (because the collapse either improves or goes Mad Max). So Exter’s Pyramid is basically nonsense. Gold will only help you in a very very narrow set of circumstances and that is why the typical recommendation was to only put 1 - 5% of net worth into gold.

But now it’s even worse, because as of this time, gold has become almost entirely useless in any scenario imaginable, because it indeeds relies on middle men to have any economic function. Used to be you could hop on a boat and take your gold with you, and there would be people using it for commerce or at least fractional reserve banking where ever you landed. The government now nearly entirely controls the physical movement and the market makers who provide any form of liquidity, because no one uses metal money any more for actual commerce. (Also your logic alleging that the whales of cryptocurrency extract value from the ecosystem but not for gold, is myopic because TPTB also extract value from gold indirectly which affects your wealth if hodling gold, e.g. compare the rise in wealth of hodling productive assets versus gold in the USA since the 1800s.)

@r0ach seriously my friend. You barked up the wrong tree and you need to realize it before it’s too late for you. We’ve got a juicy correction on Bitcoin right now so sell that damn antiquated silver and get on the rocket going to $40K – $100K. Don’t let your foolish pride cause you to repeat the mistake I made in 2012 (which I attribute to how acutely ill I was at that time and my entire life turned upside down due to that and my kids being yanked back to USA), and double-down for sloppy-seconds riding a $75K short-bet on China all the way to zero, which ended up making me too poor to join @rpietila on buying 10,000 BTC at $10 in January 2013 (I still had about $70+K but couldn’t risk my only net worth when I was so depleted and ill and increased, unexpected child support expenditures). You’re going to end up being the poster boy for repeating my foolish pride during the exponential move of Bitcoin (you’re already way behind selling BTC for silver at $600 but you can redeem yourself now with a 10 bagger still to go in Bitcoin). Bottom on BTC is already in or will be $7000 – $8500. Much below $7000 would indicate a crypto winter is upon us, but that would be premature because we have so many new classes of people who are trying to enter this investment now. We need to move to those nosebleed levels before the next crypto winter which will be shallower but longer in duration than the 2014 - 2016 one (which was shallower and longer in duration than the 2011 - 2012 one). Bitcoin is in an adoption curve pattern, and even Armstrong hasn’t realized this yet. I believe Bitcoin is the next reserve currency which was launched surreptitiously by the Zionists who control central banking from further behind the compartmentalized curtain than Armstrong’s 2nd and 3rd tier contacts (e.g. Margeret Thatcher was not Rothschilds). Bitcoin wasn’t designed to be a transactional coin for the masses and Armstrong still has a myopia about this fact because he doesn’t understand all the technical minutia completely as I do. Fees will rise and the masses will be pushed possibly offchain into fractional reserve banking such as Lightning Networks (but the technical and game theory flaws are onerous so possibly instead on to an altcoin if any succeeds long-term).

Exter’s Pyramid violates the Second Law of Thermodynamics which states that entropy (aka probabilistic distribution of uncertainty and diversity of outcomes) must inexorably trend to maximum. Thus there can’t exist any form of absolute surety, because that would be highly anti-fragile, non-resilient, and non-relativistic. Exter’s Pyramid is some propaganda BS so that insane goldbugs and the dealers who profit on them have promulgated as form of truth, but it’s not an absolute truth.

Armstrong has explained that there was a time in ancient human civilization where gold was not even money because it was too rare. It was only ornamental for kings. Instead iron and then bronze were metal, and before that it was animal skins, shells, and what not. Thus what is money changes throughout time as technology changes. Now we’re moving into a epoch where precious metals will entirely lose their monetary function, because in effect they become too rare again (in terms of ability to exchange them for anything). Remember money is what the people-at-large believe everyone else will accept in exchange.

Also your fundamental fears about cryptocurrency are going to be largely ameliorated when I launch. You see the name of the project now (which I thought of many months ago, we’ve just been hiding it). Decentralized ledger technology is only at the nascent stage. And there’s another formulation that isn’t proof-of-work nor proof-of-stake nor a DAG in the sense that has been already promulgated by Iota and Byteball. It’s not absolute surety (nothing can be because we necessarily live in a relativistic universe), but remember that money is a social institution any way. So I posit my design will fit very well with that reality. And decentralized ledgers (and note the term block chain is not general enough to describe my design) are also useful for consensus ordering non-fungible events, not just monetary transactions. The former will end up being much more valuable than the monetary function, per the point of my 2013 essay which I linked for you in my prior comment post.

Btw, did y’all notice that Armstrong’s private arrays Socrates service predicted the recent top of Bitcoin to the exact day (or maybe it pinpointed the week)!

(image is cropped same as for the linked one on the blog above, but this image to the left comes from someone who pays for the Socrates service thus confirming it was prescient)

P.S. Socrates remains cautiously bullish on Bitcoin (thus agreeing with our analysis that a crypto winter collapse is not likely now). As implied above, a crypto winter is distinguished from a severe correction by the long duration before new ATHs are achieved.

[sidhujag]

Ive already showed him how bitcoin is the bottom of the new exters pyramid

LOL what a joke.  You are the most dishonest dirtbag on this entire forum.  The base of Exter's Pyramid is mostly about whatever asset removes the most risk.  Bitcoin has built-in, rent seeking middlemen and doesn't even remove counter party risk.  Plus it can be destroyed by more black swans than you can count, while it requires a black hole hitting the earth to black swan metals.

Bitcoin is a complete dud attempting to compete in that department as the base of Exter's Pyramid.  You need to either be stupid or some type of chronic liar to think people will believe your lies.  Anyone capable of objective, elementary level fundamental analysis can tell you're wrong, so you only make yourself look like an idiot each time you type it.  Then you have the fact it's not possible to create a decentralized digital currency in the first place, only ones designed to centralize, so they are all nothing more than federated chains in the end - permissioned ledger slavery systems.

Market is the truth and it has proven you wrong. Time you look in mirror pal. Figure it out. Or do always want to be the pig? Ive explained many times about asympototic ideal money to you. You seem too focused on the shit thats in your head and have a paralysis from real reasoning.

[sidhujag]

Я пpocтo нaшeл пpeдмeт, кoтopый излaгaeт пpиятнoe чтeниe (нe тo, чтo я coглaceн co вceми иx мнeниями). Этo интepecнaя cтaтья; тeбe пoнpaвитcя.

Note I’ve since come to understand that Eastern Europe and Russia may have a brighter future. And Australia is in worse shape than I thought.

Ive already showed him how bitcoin is the bottom of the new exters pyramid

LOL what a joke.  You are the most dishonest dirtbag on this entire forum.  The base of Exter's Pyramid is mostly about whatever asset removes the most risk.  Bitcoin has built-in, rent seeking middlemen and doesn't even remove counter party risk.  Plus it can be destroyed by more black swans than you can count, while it requires a black hole hitting the earth to black swan metals.

Exter’s Pyramid is a theory by a former central banker. It’s not a proven hypothesis.

Armstrong has explained that Exter’s Pyramid is not always applicable. There have been several examples in human history where the collapse was so Mad Max that only food was money and gold was entirely useless. What use was it for burying your gold in the ground for 600 years (in Japan for example and again in Western Europe) waiting for the Dark Age to be over?

And thousands of examples in human history where the collapse didn’t go far enough off the rails for gold to be necessary. This is the usual outcome. Armstrong has explained that gold only serves a safety role in a very limited type of collapse that is bad enough but not so bad and only during about the first 2 years of such a collapse (because the collapse either improves or goes Mad Max). So Exter’s Pyramid is basically nonsense. Gold will only help you in a very very narrow set of circumstances and that is why the typical recommendation was to only put 1 - 5% of net worth into gold.

But now it’s even worse, because as of this time, gold has become almost entirely useless in any scenario imaginable, because it indeeds relies on middle men to have any economic function. Used to be you could hop on a boat and take your gold with you, and there would be people using it for commerce or at least fractional reserve banking where ever you landed. The government now nearly entirely controls the physical movement and the market makers who provide any form of liquidity, because no one uses metal money any more for actual commerce.

@r0ach seriously my friend. You barked up the wrong tree and you need to realize it before it’s too late for you. We’ve got a juicy correction on Bitcoin right now so sell that damn antiquated silver and get on the rocket going to $40K – $100K. Bottom on BTC is already in or will be $7000 – $8500. Much below $7000 would indicate a crypto winter is upon us, but that would be premature because we have so many new classes of people who are trying to enter this investment now. We need to move to those nosebleed levels before the next crypto winter which will be shallower but longer in duration than the 2014 - 2016 one (which was shallower and longer in duration than the 2011 - 2012 one). Bitcoin is in an adoption curve pattern, and even Armstrong hasn’t realized this yet. I believe Bitcoin is the next reserve currency which was launched surreptitiously by the Zionists who control central banking from farther behind the compartmentalized curtain than Armstrong’s 2nd and 3rd tier contacts (e.g. Margeret Thatcher was not Rothschilds). Bitcoin wasn’t designed to be a transactional coin for the masses and Armstrong still has a myopia about this fact because he doesn’t understand all the technical minutia completely as I do. Fees will rise and the masses will be pushed possibly offchain into fractional reserve banking such as Lightning Networks (but the technical and game theory flaws are onerous so possibly instead on to an altcoin if any succeeds long-term).

Exter’s Pyramid violates the Second Law of Thermodynamics which states that entropy (aka probabilistic distribution of uncertainty and diversity of outcomes) must inexorably trend to maximum. Thus there can’t exist any form of absolute surety, because that would be highly anti-fragile, non-resilient, and non-relativistic. Exter’s Pyramid is some propaganda BS so that insane goldbugs and the dealers who profit on them have promulgated as form of truth, but it’s not an absolute truth.

Armstrong has explained that there was a time in ancient human civilization where gold was not even money because it was too rare. It was only ornamental for kings. Instead iron and then bronze were metal, and before that it was animal skins, shells, and what not. Thus what is money changes throughout time as technology changes. Now we’re moving into a epoch where precious metals will entirely lose their monetary function, because in effect they become too rare again (in terms of ability to exchange them for anything). Remember money is what the people-at-large believe everyone else will accept in exchange.

Also your fundamental fears about cryptocurrency are going to be largely ameliorated when I launch. You see the name of the project now (which I thought of many months ago, we’ve just been hiding it). Decentralized ledger technology is only at the nascent stage. And there’s another formulation that isn’t proof-of-work nor proof-of-stake nor a DAG in the sense that has been already promulgated by Iota and Byteball. It’s not absolute surety (nothing can be because we necessarily live in a relativistic universe), but remember that money is a social institution any way. So I posit my design will fit very well with that reality. And decentralized ledgers (and note the term block chain is not general enough to describe my design) are useless for consensus ordering non-fungible events, not just monetary transactions. The former will end up being much more valuable than the monetary function, per the point of my 2013 essay which I linked for you in my prior comment post.

Btw, did y’all notice that Armstrong’s private arrays Socrates service predicted the recent top of Bitcoin to the exact day (or maybe it pinpointed the week)!

(image is cropped same as for the linked one on the blog above, but this image to the left comes from someone who pays for the Socrates service thus confirming it was prescient)

P.S. Socrates remains cautiously bullish on Bitcoin (thus agreeing with our analysis that a crypto winter collapse is not likely now).

I share the same view about exter and general placement of adoption curve. I was merely poiting.out his goto garbage was actually working against him.and not for.him

[CRED.me]

(Also your logic alleging that the whales of cryptocurrency extract value from the ecosystem but not for gold, is myopic because TPTB also extract value from gold indirectly which affects your wealth if hodling gold, e.g. compare the rise in wealth of hodling productive assets versus gold in the USA since the 1800s.)

[…]

@r0ach seriously my friend. You barked up the wrong tree and you need to realize it before it’s too late for you. We’ve got a juicy correction on Bitcoin right now so sell that damn antiquated silver and get on the rocket going to $40K – $100K. Don’t let your foolish pride cause you to repeat the mistake I made in 2012 (which I attribute to how acutely ill I was at that time and my entire life turned upside down due to that and my kids being yanked back to USA), and double-down for sloppy-seconds riding a $75K short-bet on China all the way to zero, which ended up making me too poor to join @rpietila on buying 10,000 BTC at $10 in January 2013 (I still had about $70+K but couldn’t risk my only net worth when I was so depleted and ill and increased, unexpected child support expenditures). You’re going to end up being the poster boy for repeating my foolish pride during the exponential move of Bitcoin (you’re already way behind selling BTC for silver at $600 but you can redeem yourself now with a 10 bagger still to go in Bitcoin).

I edited the above. Please note it. I will delete this post after a while. Silver will eventually make a run, perhaps even a 10 bagger, but it will likely be after 2018 and after Bitcoin has hit new ATHs. The short-term trade is sell silver for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is in its exponential move right now. Silver is not (yet). Gold and silver will move when governments start collapsing. That is not quite yet. It’s coming to Europe, but Bitcoin is making a technology adoption move now.

[thejaytiesto]

Update: overloading the name zero.

It's a cool name, and I also like the idea of .0 file extensions, but be ready for the easy memes during dips: "Zero is going to zero, sell everything".

What happened to the name "Bitnet"? and there were also other proposed names, but I think Bitnet was one of my favorites. Go and Ninja don't convince me.

[OROBTC]

Я пpocтo нaшeл пpeдмeт, кoтopый излaгaeт пpиятнoe чтeниe (нe тo, чтo я coглaceн co вceми иx мнeниями). Этo интepecнaя cтaтья; тeбe пoнpaвитcя.

goodstvolab, don't keep us in suspense!  What is the piece to which you refer that is so interesting?

Also, what are your observations on Bitcoin and cryptos in Russia?

[innocent93]

All i can say is that i have a lot to learn from Mr. Martin Armstrong, he has an interesting way to look at the things that surrounds him.

[CRED.me]

It's a cool name, and I also like the idea of .0 file extensions, but be ready for the easy memes during dips: "Zero is going to zero, sell everything".

Zero is the most recent proposed name for a proposed new programming language (an attempt to replace Go, JavaScript/Node.js, and C++ with something better, more fundamentally sound, modernized, more safe, and less of a clusterfuck). The proposed decentralized ledger’s name (and in fact the future website) is to the left above where it currently is written “Newbie”.

Do you think r0ach might change his mind if somebody proves that "decentralized digital currency" can exist?
afair you also stated that bitcoin is designed to centralize (ditto forks).

@r0ach is wanting an absolute surety with money. Even the Bible explains that is folly. As well, the Bible says we will throw our gold and silver into streets in the future and it will not save us in that day of future reckoning. If @r0ach accepts that civilization depends on cooperation and that cooperation isn’t absolutely sure, then IMO he might better understand. It’s ironic that he wants a money that is entirely independent of cooperation, yet money has no value without agreement (i.e. cooperation) about what is money.

He is correct that afawcs, all the existing decentralized ledger consensus algorithms presented so far, do have a problem that they require an oligarchy control in order to function properly:

https://gist.github.com/shelby3/e0c36e24344efba2d1f0d650cd94f1c7

https://busy.org/eos/@dan/in-defense-of-consortium-blockchains

We will introduce a decentralized ledger design wherein I posit that the power-law distribution of wealth is less potent and anti-fragility is greater. I remain cognizant that the game theory analysis of such systems is quite labyrinthine, so we’ll have to see the outcome of peer review.

P.S. I can’t go around the forum correcting every Newbie who doesn’t understand that I’ve already studied every proposed decentralized ledger design. For example, I saw someone raving about Spectre (not Spectrecoin and not the new CPU malware), but they haven’t read everything I have written. Ditto Nimiq, Raiblocks, Iota, etc…but that says nothing about whether they might still be good greater fool speculations.

[realr0ach]

Exter’s Pyramid is a theory by a former central banker. It’s not a proven hypothesis.

Of course it's proven.  All it is, is a chart that shows where money goes when people shift out of risk assets to safety.  Lying conmen with 0 integrity like Sidhujag claim bitcoin is not only not a risk asset, it's the lowest risk asset possible.  The sheer audacity of this lie is beyond comprehension.  He should be put in front of a firing squad with the rest of the Jews for even attempting to pull off such a lie.  The Jews being very capable liars and deceivers wouldn't even attempt to pull off such a lie themselves because they know nobody would believe it, but that sure doesn't stop 0 integrity Sidhujag.

He then goes on to reference idiotic jibberish from company man Nick Szabo.  Newsflash:  since it's not possible to create a decentralized cryptocurrency and they're all designed to centralize, it means they're all just permissioned ledger, federated chains in pratice.  You know what else is a federated chain?  Paypal.  Just because they're Rube Goldberg machines that try to obfuscate what's going on doesn't mean they aren't the same thing.  It just takes a short time span for craptocurrency to arrive at that inevitable end.

Anyone with a pulse can tell proof of stake snowball centralizes through interest.  I've already explained to you people "proof of work" isn't actually "work", but the same thing - just collecting interest.  You put miners on auto-pilot, pull in the interest, then parlay the profit into...more miners to raise the vig higher like a typical slum lord trying to monopolize an apartment complex.  Or as you explained in Anonymint-speak:  "economy of scale begets more economy of scale".

Claiming any centralized, garbage cryptocurrency is somehow an off-risk asset or has better fundamentals than metals as the base of Exter's pyramid is like claiming Paypal is the base of Exter's Pyramid.  Only complete fucking morons or scammers could make such a claim.  Neither Paypal or any cryptocurrency remove middlemen or counterparty risk.  Worse still, we aren't talking about some type of benign middlemen, we're talking about built-in, usurious, rent seeking middlemen (transaction validators) in a parasitical relationship who want a cut of every transaction.  Only physical commodity currency like silver and gold remove the parasite middlemen.

[InspireTTK]

Price looks like same as when it peaked at 1k back in the days a couple of years ago. Same pattern. We will go down, down, down, steady out, then one day up, up, up and another boom.

Just compare the 1k peak with the 20k peak. The only difference will be the time, but pattern seems to be the same.

[sidhujag]

Exter’s Pyramid is a theory by a former central banker. It’s not a proven hypothesis.

Of course it's proven.  All it is, is a chart that shows where money goes when people shift out of risk assets to safety.  Lying conmen with 0 integrity like Sidhujag claim bitcoin is not only not a risk asset, it's the lowest risk asset possible.  The sheer audacity of this lie is beyond comprehension.  He should be put in front of a firing squad with the rest of the Jews for even attempting to pull off such a lie.  The Jews being very capable liars and deceivers wouldn't even attempt to pull off such a lie themselves because they know nobody would believe it, but that sure doesn't stop 0 integrity Sidhujag.

He then goes on to reference idiotic jibberish from company man Nick Szabo.  Newsflash:  since it's not possible to create a decentralized cryptocurrency and they're all designed to centralize, it means they're all just permissioned ledger, federated chains in pratice.  You know what else is a federated chain?  Paypal.  Just because they're Rube Goldberg machines that try to obfuscate what's going on doesn't mean they aren't the same thing.  It just takes a short time span for craptocurrency to arrive at that inevitable end.

Anyone with a pulse can tell proof of stake snowball centralizes through interest.  I've already explained to you people "proof of work" isn't actually "work", but the same thing - just collecting interest.  You put miners on auto-pilot, pull in the interest, then parlay the profit into...more miners to raise the vig higher like a typical slum lord trying to monopolize an apartment complex.  Or as you explained in Anonymint-speak:  "economy of scale begets more economy of scale".

Claiming any centralized, garbage cryptocurrency is somehow an off-risk asset or has better fundamentals than metals as the base of Exter's pyramid is like claiming Paypal is the base of Exter's Pyramid.  Only complete fucking morons or scammers could make such a claim.  Neither Paypal or any cryptocurrency remove middlemen or counterparty risk.  Worse still, we aren't talking about some type of benign middlemen, we're talking about built-in, usurious, rent seeking middlemen (transaction validators) in a parasitical relationship who want a cut of every transaction.  Only physical commodity currency like silver and gold remove the parasite middlemen.

You do not ever get it lol. Ok fine be the pig. Im sure you were born to be one anyway. Your not meant to win I get it.