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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 598084 times)
Gumbi
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October 01, 2018, 06:23:27 PM
Last edit: October 02, 2018, 03:37:55 PM by Gumbi
 #4501

Got the Monday high. Tomorrow is a Panic Cycle so its possible that it can be a Tuesday intraday high. Looking for places to short

70% of the time a panic cycle is an outside reversal or capitulation
30% of the time a panic cycle is a fast one way move.

The next level of resistance on the daily channel price targets for the Dow is at 26926 area which could be a good place to short the market. So far the daily array has been very accurate even though as Armstrong has said The Reversal System is the only game in town. If we exceed the September high we should move higher into year end.

The trader service should come out this month or early November I am certain because Armstrong has said it is in the final stages and will be live well in advance of the WEC which is being held on November the 16th.
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bikefront
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October 02, 2018, 02:34:14 PM
 #4502

10/04 looks like a minor turning point on the arrays. There is also a Direction Change then. Armstrong says that a direction change on a turning point can mark the high/low. I would be looking for long setups around then. But the week of 10/15 is a turning point. I think normally that's a low BUT because of the cycle inversion, it can be a high. There is a high volatility reading that week though. Maybe it can still be a high. If the Dow doesn't drop too much during the bear cycles and rises strongly during the bull cycles, then it can break the September high into cycle inversion and make more highs in November. That's just what I think.
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October 04, 2018, 04:23:25 PM
 #4503

Today was a Directional Change. I do not have arrays on the daily timeframe beyond that, but it was a minor turning point as well, so today might be the low.
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October 05, 2018, 01:36:44 AM
 #4504

Today was a Directional Change. I do not have arrays on the daily timeframe beyond that, but it was a minor turning point as well, so today might be the low.

Week of 10/15 shows high volatility, but also the highest Composite reading. How do you interpret this?
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October 05, 2018, 05:43:44 PM
 #4505

Today was a Directional Change. I do not have arrays on the daily timeframe beyond that, but it was a minor turning point as well, so today might be the low.

Week of 10/15 shows high volatility, but also the highest Composite reading. How do you interpret this?

Volatility can mean a big move in either direction. The weekly level shows this week, followed by 10/15, as turning points. Therefore, because this week produced a low, it should imply an intraday or closing high that week. On the other hand, it also produced a high, so it could make a low. However, we may be in cycle inversion where each turning point produces a high. Armstrong mentioned in his after market post that we can see volatility due to the battle between bulls and bears of the effect of rising rates on markets.
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October 05, 2018, 06:21:49 PM
 #4506

I may have said this in the previous posts, but Armstrong said in an email (from his assistant) that the bars in the array represent the price levels.  I also asked the color coding of the bars, and he said that when it changes direction, the color changes.  Prior to that, I always thought that there are some magic or crypto info embedded.  But after that, I found that most of the direction change or turning points are at where the actual bars (price levels) change directions (which is obvious, by the definition of turning point).  There were some that aren't like that, but most that I've found are like that.  I'm not too sure why.

Regardless, "bars represent the actual price levels".  And you would think the FIRST row, composite, would be the most significant, which combines all of his timing models.

In order to figure out whether Armstrong's arrays are useful, you MUST apply the same criterion every time.  For example, you must measure the percentage of prediction success for EVERY turning point.  You cannot cherry-pick the one that he got, and ignore 5 other ones that he missed.  Or you can see if the bars in the composite arrays tell the correct relative price levels for each timeframe.

If not, adding your own thoughts and interpretation on top of his array information, is basically adding your trading skills/edges on top of his raw information.

For the longest time reading his blog/array, when that net result of "my thinking on top of his array" is wrong, I thought that I must have interpreted his array incorrectly.
When the net result is correct, I thought that "wow, Armstrong is CORRECT!".

Do yourself a favor.  Collect the actual statistics by measuring the information from his array OBJECTIVELY.  If it's not even 60% correct, throw yourself a dice next time before you want to make a trade.

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October 05, 2018, 07:49:11 PM
 #4507

You did say that, and I believe you about the email, but from everything I've read, nothing indicates they refer to price levels, only turning points. However, those points simply have the strongest probability of being the major highs/lows, but highs/lows of some kind nonetheless. As of right now, it seems ambiguous to me so I'm not trading based on those. He did say that exceeding the September high in October points to highs in November. We made Dow ATHs in October. Therefore, for him to be correct, we need to make a Dow ATH in November.
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October 05, 2018, 08:01:36 PM
 #4508

I read his blog for 16+ years, and he NEVER said that anywhere, until I paid his useless reports that were filled with 97% history, but just 3% ambiguous forecast, and tried to ask him those questions.

His assistant emailed me back with the answers, and I was told that "the bars ARE the price levels".

What I'm saying here is collaborated by someone else who attended his WEC seminar (in one of the link that I posted at straightdope.com)  He essentially doesn't explain much of anything about the arrays.  Instead he gets another person to "explain" and confound you further.

If there is anything worthwhile in the arrays, I think at the minimum, people who bought into WEC seminars, should have been told.
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October 05, 2018, 08:20:57 PM
 #4509

Again, over so many years, Armstrong "did" say MANY things.  You cannot judge the accuracy by just one thing that he said.

What's most important is that HOW MANY of that were correct?  And you will only remember the most memorable/accurate, if you don't keep the actual statistics.

He kept saying that long term forecast is a lot easier and more accurate than the short-term forecasts.

Well, plague NEVER happened in 2014, nor 2015, nor 2016, nor 2017, nor 2018, which he kept postponing the doomsday.

And war nor civil war did NOT happen either at the scale that he was indicating with his "cycle of wars".  He was comparing to World War 1, 2, etc.

And earthquakes?!  And European disintegration, fall of euro?

Again, by his own words, if you are not looking at things globally, any of your forecast cannot be correct.  And since he did NOT get the plague, war, or earthquake correct, according to his own words, there is NO WAY that he can get things correct at the global level either, since "in his own words",  such events like plagues, weather, earthquakes, will affect the global economy dramatically, and his "AI computer" is watching these events closely.

He cannot even get the peak of the current bull correct, and has been trying to "sneak in" a peak call here and there since 2012.  Shouldn't he be able to forecast the stock market for the long term??  NO, instead, he walks you down via reversal systems, and decision trees, etc.  Why?  Because the long-term future is not something that he can forecast at all.  So he needs to continuously change his calls, based on the market conditions.  And then give you the "cycle inversion" so that the peak could be extended indefinitely.

For an analyst with integrity, either you call it years ago, and stick with that.  Or admit that you cannot do ANY long-term forecast.  Don't change your answers, as you see it, and as time goes by.

And then for the short-term forecast, just LOOK at the bars, and see if the relative price levels are even correct.
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October 05, 2018, 08:26:35 PM
 #4510

I was under the impression that highs/lows sync with the Reversals. So if a Reversal is elected, then the opposite move should be small. Because if they were price levels, then what would the point of the Reversals even be? This is also referring to one of his 'running out of time' trades, where, if the Reversal is not elected, then the price must turn all the way back. For example, If a Bullish Reversal is elected, then support moves up. Assuming support it holds, that price should be exceeded on the upside. Armstrong also said that the Dow elected the Bullish Reversal while the Nasdaq did not, reflecting capital flow change into large cap companies. After analyzing various companies, I bought some XLV and XLI ETFs today. They have recently outperformed, and I expect this trend to continue. We'll see.

His forecasts, as he admits, are not set in stone. He gives possibilities. Eg the peak can happen in either 2032 or 2022 (as far as I know). If X happens, then Y, but if not, then if A, then B. Who knows. A lot of what he says is like that. Even so, he has given specific forecasts (a close below X today means we will his support, closing even lower at Y means it will happen this week, etc.) Again, I cannot speak for him over the years, but he has specifically stated that going above the September high this month means new highs in November. So we need the Dow to make a high in November for him to be right.
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October 07, 2018, 08:06:49 AM
 #4511

He cannot even get the peak of the current bull correct, and has been trying to "sneak in" a peak call here and there since 2012.  Shouldn't he be able to forecast the stock market for the long term??  NO, instead, he walks you down via reversal systems, and decision trees, etc.  Why?  Because the long-term future is not something that he can forecast at all.  So he needs to continuously change his calls, based on the market conditions.  And then give you the "cycle inversion" so that the peak could be extended indefinitely.

Do you have link for Armstrong sneaking in the peak call? From my memory, Armstrong has stated this is the longest hated bull run. I havn't seen him forecast a drop. Would be nice if you have links?
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October 08, 2018, 12:21:38 AM
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 #4512

I was under the impression that highs/lows sync with the Reversals. So if a Reversal is elected, then the opposite move should be small. Because if they were price levels, then what would the point of the Reversals even be? This is also referring to one of his 'running out of time' trades, where, if the Reversal is not elected, then the price must turn all the way back. For example, If a Bullish Reversal is elected, then support moves up. Assuming support it holds, that price should be exceeded on the upside. Armstrong also said that the Dow elected the Bullish Reversal while the Nasdaq did not, reflecting capital flow change into large cap companies. After analyzing various companies, I bought some XLV and XLI ETFs today. They have recently outperformed, and I expect this trend to continue. We'll see.

His forecasts, as he admits, are not set in stone. He gives possibilities. Eg the peak can happen in either 2032 or 2022 (as far as I know). If X happens, then Y, but if not, then if A, then B. Who knows. A lot of what he says is like that. Even so, he has given specific forecasts (a close below X today means we will his support, closing even lower at Y means it will happen this week, etc.) Again, I cannot speak for him over the years, but he has specifically stated that going above the September high this month means new highs in November. So we need the Dow to make a high in November for him to be right.

In previous articles Armstrong says the 8.6 year US Share Market cycle last fell on 1st Oct 2017. 8.6 yrs after this date is Jan 28/29 2022.  Could that be the high?  Socrates sometimes outlines 2022 as an important date for the DOW.
Using his cycle calculation within that 8.6y period starting from 1 Oct 2017, the next TIME target for the US Share Market is next month 7 Nov 2018..also the 21/22 Nov 2018 is a peak date for the ECM (which is the economic confidence model for the whole world).  Worth keeping an eye on 7 Nov 2018 perhaps?!
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October 08, 2018, 06:00:24 PM
 #4513

I cannot find his attempted call on stock peaks.  I recalled he tried to sneak in about 3 times.  But using search, I came up with his call on peak in bond markets:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/the-peak-in-government-a-low-in-interest-rates/

And that was NOT correct.  The peak of interest rate indicated by TLT US bonds, or European bonds was NOT on ANY ECM dates.  Peak for TLT was July 8th, 2016.  He never defined exactly what is "peak of confidence in government" for the ECM in 2015.75, but it's obvious to ANYONE that confidence in government should have been measured by the government bond prices, just like the above link, as he was trying to allude to it as well.  BUT he didn't get the peak of bond prices correct AT ALL, and everybody knows that this would have been the bubble to pop, as the bond bull market has gone on for some 30 years.

Notice his wording in his post that allows him to claim credit, in case he is correct.

bikefront, I kept repeating this.  You MUST "measure" his prediction success SYSTEMATICALLY.
Of course, he "ALLOWS" possibilities, so that he can get everything correct.  What about all the long term forecasts that he claims he can make, and that he claimed he made.
Anyone predicts like he does can get everything correct.  If it's not correct, just say that the alternative scenario has been elected.  But who will be stuck with the trading losses?

Kiwibird, I posted how ECM length canNOT be 8.6 years, because that is simply NOT the right number, according to Armstrong HIMSELF (he posted different dates for 2015.75).  You can scroll back and look at what I posted.  8.6 is a MYTH.  If it's a science, then it is repeatable.  It cannot be 8.615 now, and 8.600 later, and 8.61513, and then 8.59.  According to Armstrong, ECM is accurate to the day.  So 8.6 MUST be accurate within 0.3%.  But it's not.  In fact, it's just whatever closest number that will make the math & dates correct.


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October 08, 2018, 09:47:24 PM
 #4514

I agree. His wording is almost always ambiguous (there are rare instances where he forecasts absolutes). Another problem with attempting to verify Armstrong's forecasts is that they are unorganized. A chronological list would be required, and that means going through the archives to find whatever can be found, which is woefully inadequate. MA_talk, if you have a spare email, it is possible to use it for a free trial which would allow you to view the private blog posts. This is where he has posted almost all of his calls this past year (and probably a couple of years earlier as well), which would at least help in chronological order for a set time period. Again, I am only saying what's been going on as it happens. The only current forecast in play that is a definite one that I know is exceeding the Dow high in November.
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October 08, 2018, 10:28:36 PM
 #4515

I found this video of the 2016 WEC to be very helpful.  https://vimeo.com/198896912
In the 2nd part, Erwin Pletsch outlines how to use the Reversals and Arrays.  You also have to read Models & Methodologies (see the website) in tandem with the video to get to grips with how to forecast.  I understand why he gets Erwin to do the workshop - holding a 48hr event like this must be hard work for someone like Armstrong who is in his late 60s - spread the load and Erwin has been around Socrates since the 80s, so he knows it inside out. 

MA did forecast at the 2016 WEC that the DOW would enter a Phase Transition and rise for the next 2 years into 2018 as long as it elected the Monthly Bullish 18,625 which it did at the end of November 2016 : https://vimeo.com/198896912 - (listen at 2 hours+50mins & 3 hours+25mins).

I also urge you to watch The Forecaster on vimeo (like $5).  I met his good friend Larry Edelson back in 2015 when he was doing a Q&A at the documentary screening where i live.  In the bar afterwards he said that Armstrong sleeps only 4hrs at a time (and I guess possibly naps during the day) and is up late writing..the blog is free and I think he does it during these dark hours, hence the spelling, punctuation etc...chronological order would be amazing but I doubt he has the time to do this. 
I'm under the assumption that his bread and butter comes from advising major institutions etc and that he cannot personally trade as this would mean he's conflicted.

Here is one of the latest podcasts from 25 September..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr9PPaVAkZ4

I personally don't trade but try to invest long term with the trend - so far he has been spot on regarding longterm forecasts.. as Erwin says, day and week trading there is too much 'noise'. 
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October 09, 2018, 05:26:39 PM
 #4516

Another cryptic blog post by Marty

what EXACTLY does he mean by the greatest trade of the century Huh

to go long NOW?

or to go long after an October crash Huh?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/is-the-greatest-trade-on-the-century-knocking-on-the-door-yet/
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October 09, 2018, 06:32:39 PM
 #4517

Another cryptic blog post by Marty

what EXACTLY does he mean by the greatest trade of the century Huh

to go long NOW?

or to go long after an October crash Huh?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/is-the-greatest-trade-on-the-century-knocking-on-the-door-yet/

I believe his is referring to the 'Vertical Market'. His forecast of the Dow hitting 39-40k as the peak by 2022 or so IF it is not an extended cycle means that the market can rise in a very short period of time. He also said that we can retest support, which lies at 25800, in October. The support rises as the market does. However, the Dow also made new highs in October, and he also mentioned that we are in cycle inversion. This should mean the Dow should hit ATHs in November again. The week of October 15th isa turning point and high volatility comes up on there, so it MIGHT be a point for entry. In any case, he says to trade with the trend. The Dow elected Bullish Reversals while the Nasdaq did not, recently. He says that reflects capital shift from an international perspective, not so much domestic. Money moving into large caps. Either way, the market is going up. Going long and simply adding on dips is fine imo.
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October 10, 2018, 06:31:06 AM
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 #4518

I heard that one before.  He called gold "the greatest trade of the CENTURY" before.  That's his usage of sensationalism to trap readers.

Hey, what about the validity for his long term forecast?  He SAID it's for the CENTURY for gold too.

KiwiBird, it will be very difficult to find another person who has read as much on Armstrong as I did.  I read ALL of his public posts since year 1999, except for the last 2 or 3 years.  I "know" everything about his "methodologies" which are not very useful, and I can tell you all about cycle inversion, 1/8, 1/4, 1/2, PI, 26, 37.1, 8.6, 8.615, 224 or 223, 52, and all of the magic numbers.

There is nothing magically about sleeping 4 hours.  I sleep 5 hour everyday.  And many people sleep just 4 hours.  He doesn't trade because he probably cannot make a profit.

For the longest time, I thought he answers his readers' questions, until I caught a typo in his readers' questions.  And it happened two times.  If a reader actually emails him, he should simply cut & paste over the question.  He shouldn't re-type it.  As you know very well, Armstrong has quite a lot of typos in his posts, and I'm extremely sensitive to any typos.  The typo that he made in readers' questions was fire instead of hire (or it may be the other way around).  There was absolutely NO WAY for anyone to make sense out of it EXCEPT for the person who is typing it (and made the typo).  It took me several minutes to realize that typo, to be able to proceed to understand the entire sentence.

After that, I realized that probably over 50% of the sent-in questions by readers are ALL FAKE.

As I posted in one of the earliest posts, his vice-president of Princeton Economics Institute was found guilty ALLOCATING profitable trades to his/PEI account.  Are you going to tell me that Armstrong, as SMART as he is, would know NOTHING about this stealing under his nose??  The only guaranteed profits would be theft from customers' accounts.  And it's super easy to do.  Simply go short/long at the same time, and profits goes to yours, while losses go to customers'.

I have already given up on Armstrong, and doesn't even bother anymore to keep track, as I have seen so many failures.  What he does BEST is that at the high volatility of any markets, he will come out and make the swing, and either scare you, or say "I told you so".  Because of that, reading such posts from him actually will cause you to lose money most of the time, because it's at the peak of the emotion, and you simply follow him and panic.  So I refrain from reading him now, realizing what he is doing, and what the effects are on me.

I checked out what he kept claiming about Barron's post on his stock market forecast back in about 2011.  The only thing that I could find is that he said stock market will go up long term.  There was NOTHING else or specific that he said.  DUD!  I don't need anyone to tell me that.  Yet, he kept taking credit for forecasting this current rise of stock market.

I also realize what his "business model" is all about.  Price it super-high, and make it seems to be valuable due to its price.  And there is ALWAYS some takers who will try.  It's like the internet ads.  I don't click on ANY, but because of the huge number of people, someone is bound to click OR mis-click on the ads.  And same for institutional services.  There will ALWAYS be some institutions who want to give it a try.

ALL of his reports that I bought are 97% history, which you canNOT argue with him, since they're historical facts, and then 3% ambiguous forecasts, which can be either way.  Darn, the war cycle is ONLY 25 years, AND he said from year N to year N+7, with rising intensity.  DARN, that's MORE than 25% of the cycle length.  You just need some headline in that 25% of the cycle length to hit, and of course, he is going to tell you that "see, I said so".  How about some more specific forecast?

At the end of days, it's all the same.  You cannot make any real profits out of it.  I can also forecast CORRECTLY on earthquake too, if I keep saying that the intensity is picking up and picking up, especially with California haven't been hit with a BIG ONE for so many years now.  If I simply make such forecast towards the tail end of either earthquake, or the 30+ years of the bull market in bonds, and I keep throwing my darts at target every year, but change what I say if it doesn't happen, then I will for sure hit the JACKPOT sooner or later.

If you don't believe me that BAR HEIGHT is the PRICE (as he said in an email), then please tell WHAT in the hell should be IN the forecast array.  The two most important things about ANY markets are PRICE and VOLUME.  And he PUT that thing in the FIRST ROW.  It's got to be important to be put in the first ROW.  So if he is not telling you about the price, then that's the volume?  Well, it's not volatility, since he already has another row for that.  Tell me what it can be.  Or is that just garbage, something that you shouldn't know about, and so that you don't need to pay attention to?

Anyway, I wanted to make a website, documenting every little details on Armstrong, but I have been just too busy.
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October 10, 2018, 06:50:17 AM
 #4519

Just want to clarify on his reader's typo of "hire" as "fire".  The chance of another reader having such flagrant typo (like Armstrong often does), together with the chance of having a super-psychic Armstrong not realizing the typo, and not correcting the typo, but simply sees "fire" as "hire" directly in his super-clairvoyant mind, is essentially zero.  A rare event of 0.01% chance can sometimes happen.  But to have two rare events of 0.01% chance happening at the same time will be 0.0001%, and that's basically impossible.

The alternative and much simpler explanation is simply that Armstrong was typing reader's questions in his mind, and obviously everything is crystal clear to him, since he is composing readers' questions.

It literally took me at least more than 2 minutes to realize that "hire" was mis-typed as "fire".

It's everything that added up, some lies here, some lies there, some mis-forecast here and there, etc.  And then I finally woke up.  And what I should have done all along was simply to test his forecast in a SYSTEMATIC way, and that would have told the story quickly, instead of having me persuading myself that I didn't understand his ECM correctly, or that I didn't subscribe to all of his private offering, etc.

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October 10, 2018, 03:35:06 PM
 #4520

Armstrong says that gold will decline at first, but when the vertical market begins, it should rise alongside equities as confidence in government collapses. A false move is required first, gold needs to go lower (under 1000 I think) before it can happen. I don't know about the fraud stuff much, but it would be easy to find theft. It would also be hard to detect if someone wants to hide it. For some period of time, at least. Again, I don't know so much about older long term forecasts, but his has been on point this year on short, emerging markets, a volatile year, gold, euro. Even recently, the 'Bullish Reversal' in the Dow and not Nasdaq has shown that the Dow has continued to outperform since its election. As mentioned before, the forecast from last month of being 'likely to retest support' is almost there- the Dow has almost touched the 25800 level. (On this note, my own analysis leads me to believe that, because healthcare pushed the Dow so high, it could be responsible for that Reversal. So healthcare can continue to be a leader. PFE keeps making highs in this volatility. Very nice!) I do think Armstrong makes plenty of money trading- he says he trades longer term trends. As for the Composite bars, because of the different timeframes, different points can be made. So a Tuesday high is on the daily arrays but overall a low might be next week. (Not a forecast, just making up examples). The Composite turning points can be low or high, measured by intra-period or close. They're just not specific numbers- the Reversals are supposed to do that. So if the Reversals say the Bearish Reversal is at 20k and it closes under that and the Composite says it hasn't hit the low yet, then the trend itself has changed and the market should go lower. Any move up would need to elect Bullish Reversals to change the trend back up. A turning point high would therefore just be a short signal.

I agree for most part on your other points.
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