Martin Armstrong Discussion

[MA_talk]

If Armstrong is clear, then most people would interpret his writing the same way.  Is that the case?

Also, if he only says up for two days, or down, etc.  Assuming that market is totally random, and up & down has equal probabilities, then he always has 50% chance of getting it correct.  Stating up or down is really not good enough.  Again, assuming an equal probability, for a 2-day forecast, he has 25% chance of getting it correct.

Obviously, with a little bit more help from technical analysis, and with his trading experiences, he should be able to get a much better chance than just 25%.

Because DIA, SPY, and QQQ doesn't always go in the same trend, if he says that it's for Dow, then it should be just for Dow.

Dow so far had 1 day bounce on Friday (higher than last Thursday Oct 12).  It fell on Monday, and Tuesday so far is going up.

I'm not sure which 2-day bounce he is saying.  If the 2-day bounce begun on Friday, then that is NOT correct, because Monday is a down day.
If 2-day bounce begins today, then Wednesday needs to be an up day.

Do you know why all astrologers and Armstrong all like to make a forecast on presidential election?  Because even if it's a close call, they still have a 50:50 chance!!  Since it's a popular event, they get extra attention, and if they call it correctly, they come out like a winner.

So Armstrong keeps claiming that he/AI computer predicted that Trump would win, and he was "right", but based on popular votes instead of electoral votes, Trump didn't have the majority of the popular votes.  But I bet you don't remember about what Armstrong claimed about 2000 election.  Armstrong/AI computer predicted that Al Gore would win, but Al Gore had less electoral votes, although he had more popular votes.  And he claimed a prediction success from his AI computer because Al Gore DID have more popular votes.

What a hell?!  Now what about 2016 election where Trump had LESS popular vote?  He didn't say anything related to 2000 election.  He didn't say that he fixed "bug on the popular vote" from election of 2000.  So he must have fixed the software bug, and forgot about it??  Or rather a more plausible scenario, just a liar who cannot keep his story straight??

My point is that just saying market going up and down is EASY.  To say up and down by HOW MANY points will be much more difficult.  So even if Armstrong gets a 4-day straight correct, if he does that often enough, there is AT LEAST 1/16 chance that he will get it correct.  That also applies to monthly forecast.

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[maculeth]

in one post amstrong said:



By 2032, China will dethrone the United States to become the world’s leading economic powerhouse. This cycle has been exasperated by government mismanagement and failed economic policies centered in socialism. With special attention to the Chinese yuan and Shanghai composite, this report examines how, when, and why China will become the new financial capital of the world.

I think that is very realistic, because at this time only between America and China have already carried out a trade war that could result in the collapse of the economy in other countries.

[NotFromReddit]

in one post amstrong said:



By 2032, China will dethrone the United States to become the world’s leading economic powerhouse. This cycle has been exasperated by government mismanagement and failed economic policies centered in socialism. With special attention to the Chinese yuan and Shanghai composite, this report examines how, when, and why China will become the new financial capital of the world.

I think that is very realistic, because at this time only between America and China have already carried out a trade war that could result in the collapse of the economy in other countries.

Anyone have a link to the report (free)?

[MA_talk]

in one post amstrong said:



By 2032, China will dethrone the United States to become the world’s leading economic powerhouse. This cycle has been exasperated by government mismanagement and failed economic policies centered in socialism. With special attention to the Chinese yuan and Shanghai composite, this report examines how, when, and why China will become the new financial capital of the world.

I think that is very realistic, because at this time only between America and China have already carried out a trade war that could result in the collapse of the economy in other countries.

Anyone have a link to the report (free)?

Why do you need Armstrong to tell you that?  Based on GDP & the growth rate, it is simply obvious.  If telling such obvious things makes someone a great forecaster, then all of the Chinese people that I know personally are great and better forecasters, because they all said this at least 5 to 10 years earlier than Armstrong.

[MA_talk]

While the Dow barely exceeded Friday's high on Monday, that was not the case in the NASDAQ.  Yet all three closed lower on Monday. We are still in this choppy consolidation. Since we did elect a Weekly Bullish on Friday in the Dow, that put us on warning that the decline would at least pause. This is why we NEVER enter trades in ANTICIPATION of anything. Only on the Reversals.

The NASDAQ made a new high today and the Dow did not. This is reflected in the Arrays which are different between the three indexes right now. Keep in mind that the NASDAQ peaked in August, S&P500 in September, and the DOW during the first week of October. So we should NOT expect all to behave in agreement. Nevertheless, this is also an indication that we are not looking at a MAJOR Crash that would reverse the long-term trend.

So NEVER NEVER NEVER Anticipate. Be dispassionate about the market for remember it is always going to be your own EMOTIONS that get the best of your judgement. ONLY trade on Reversals!!!!! Always let the market PROVE its direction. It is always the master of deception.

We are still in a position where we can make new lows before the elections. The number to watch is 267670 on the Cash S&P500. We stopped last week at 271051. So we have important support beneath last week's low that is not much further down. So do not get all bearish expecting the world just yet.

This is going to stay choppy into next week. The markets are still trying to figure out the direction as we have domestic players are bearish and international players more bearish on their home fronts. So this clash of views is responsible for the choppy pattern we should expect at this time.

The share markets should see some sort of a trend take shape for the elections.

Daily closings BELOW 276680 in the Cash S&P500, 24898 in the Dow, and 27400 in the NASDAQ would suggest that we will retest the lows.

REMEMBER - Position trading makes money - short-term trading more often than not loses money because people trade emotionally. Trade for the trend - not the daily swings without reversals!!!!

Is the above the raw text from Armstrong?

So now that he can't get the day-to-day correct, he tells you NEVER Anticipate??  Isn't the the whole point about forecasting??  What's the AI computer doing if it cannot anticipate on a daily/weekly/monthly/quarterly/yearly levels?  If the daily forecasts cannot be correct, which of those will be correct, or just correct by luck?  Armstrong said himself that it's the same market structure, whether it's at daily/monthly/quarterly/yearly, or even a the level of seconds, because the market is fractal, and participating human emotions are the same.  Now, if the AI computer cannot get stuffs correct at the daily level, where is the guarantee that the AI computer can get the stuffs correct at the weekly levels?  Isn't that all the same fractal structures, according to Armstrong??

Where is the 2-day bounce in Dow?  Friday was a 1-day bounce.  Tuesday was a 1-day bounce.  So now it's moved to Thu/Friday?  If I say there is a 2-day bounce without giving a starting day, I will eventually be proven correct.  And that will make me a great forecaster?

Most of the levels from Armstrong are simply support/resistance levels that can be clearly seen & analyzed if you simply draw the trendlines, and also simply plot out the volume by price channels, and from the moving average curves.  They do work, because everyone is eyeing on them, subscribers or non-subscribers.

I may sound very picky, and trying to zoom in some failure in the forecast from the "AI computer".  But what I'm trying to do is to show you that if his forecast is not 100% correct, then HOW do you know that at the big turn, such as the recent big drop, he will be correct, and inform you that.  Did he inform the subscribers that Dow will drop 2000 points near the exact date?  And if it's not 100% correct, what's the real percentage that he is correct?

If you read that raw text, that most likely came from Armstrong himself.  WHY is he NOT letting his AI computer speak?  His AI computer "does talk" and "does write report".  How about hearing from the AI computer directly??  At such critical points, shouldn't the words from his "AI computer" more important than anything that Armstrong has to say (according to his thinking)?  The fact that AI computer is not speaking probably because his AI computer cannot speak.  All the reports that I bought have sections that are "written by his AI computer", sounding a bit monotonous and falling into regular structures without emotions.  How about let his "AI computer" shine some lights?  Oh, maybe that doesn't exist?

I know it's far easier to criticize anyone, but hey, I'm not claiming that my AI computer watches the international capital flows, and is able to predict global events/markets in advance by decades earlier, such all those things that he claimed and listed in a powerpoint slide, probably with a saved date and program version date well after year 2010.

[MA_talk]

I was only commenting on the two day bounce in Dow that I remember from your earlier post, which was based on Armstrong private blog.

Since we all know that Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all act differently, and so I just focus on Dow which is what your earlier post said.  Since I don't subscribe to his private blog, and I'm basing off your posts here.  If we start mixing indexes, then we can cherry-pick the index that Armstrong got it correct, or vice versa, he got it wrong.  It was on Dow, and I focus Dow.

Anyway, I'm not diminishing what Armstrong could potentially provide as an experienced trader.  All I have been saying is that
1. His AI computer/software is very likely fake/non-existent, or I should say not existing at the accuracy level that he claims (or we expect).
2. He often resort to confounding instead of clarifying, so that he has lots of wiggle rooms.
3. His ECM model is very likely non-existent, because the cycle lengths are NOT even the same based on his own writings.  And he uses all sorts of number play to fit things.

Overall, using the "magic" ECM model with the "magic" AI computer/algorithm, he makes all sort of claims, which no one keeps a record of accuracy, especially since Armstrong won't do it for you by posting some trading record.

And I'm just saying that for your own sake, find out the accuracy percentage, and trade accordingly.  Define a scientific hypothesis on Armstrong's writing, and measure it accordingly.

Don't be like Armstrong, who kept saying the last ECM peak is "government confidence".  How about first actually define a measurable "government confidence" and do some actual measurement on that, and do some real investigative work.  Are we going to just go by our "feeling" and say that "yeah, the government confidence overall is waning since 2015.75??"

What a heck?  Everything coded in computer algorithm is obviously quantifiable.  Are we going to say that his AI computer measured the government confidence by its "feeling", and the AI felt and predicted that last ECM peak is the government confidence??

The biggest problem for Armstrong is that TLT (30-year US treausury) nor European bond did NOT peak on the ECM date at all.  And so Armstrong is unable to make any clear claim, but continue to muddle through by saying "peak of the government confidence".

If it's something that you cannot define, then it is something that you cannot measure, nor making any claims.  But of course, it's Armstrong after all.  He and his AI computer do "feel" precisely that government confidence peaked out on ECM date.

[NotFromReddit]

While the Dow barely exceeded Friday's high on Monday, that was not the case in the NASDAQ.  Yet all three closed lower on Monday. We are still in this choppy consolidation. Since we did elect a Weekly Bullish on Friday in the Dow, that put us on warning that the decline would at least pause. This is why we NEVER enter trades in ANTICIPATION of anything. Only on the Reversals.

The NASDAQ made a new high today and the Dow did not. This is reflected in the Arrays which are different between the three indexes right now. Keep in mind that the NASDAQ peaked in August, S&P500 in September, and the DOW during the first week of October. So we should NOT expect all to behave in agreement. Nevertheless, this is also an indication that we are not looking at a MAJOR Crash that would reverse the long-term trend.

So NEVER NEVER NEVER Anticipate. Be dispassionate about the market for remember it is always going to be your own EMOTIONS that get the best of your judgement. ONLY trade on Reversals!!!!! Always let the market PROVE its direction. It is always the master of deception.

We are still in a position where we can make new lows before the elections. The number to watch is 267670 on the Cash S&P500. We stopped last week at 271051. So we have important support beneath last week's low that is not much further down. So do not get all bearish expecting the world just yet.

This is going to stay choppy into next week. The markets are still trying to figure out the direction as we have domestic players are bearish and international players more bearish on their home fronts. So this clash of views is responsible for the choppy pattern we should expect at this time.

The share markets should see some sort of a trend take shape for the elections.

Daily closings BELOW 276680 in the Cash S&P500, 24898 in the Dow, and 27400 in the NASDAQ would suggest that we will retest the lows.

REMEMBER - Position trading makes money - short-term trading more often than not loses money because people trade emotionally. Trade for the trend - not the daily swings without reversals!!!!

27400 in the Nadaq? I think he means 7400

[Thekees]

Yeah, Armstrong's methodology needs a separate paper/link/page in a single cohesive place or whatever. All terms need to be clearly defined and criteria on how to use and all possible exceptions. All possibilities in terms of usage need to be laid out as well. I know there's a models and methodologies paper he has but it isn't enough, due to the various exceptions and interrelated parts of the forecasts, if one wanted to call it that. This is the reason why criteria needs to be defines, so performance can be objectively measured. I know Armstrong has posted some old trading records, but I'd like to see some verified recent track records with individual trades made. There's simply too much leeway in either direction on the calls, most of the time. Again, some are clear and closer to a direct yes/no-if/then scenario, but they are not that frequent. Things like 'likely to", "close this week/day above/below signals that we will...", "key dates" often are more concrete. Seeing as the next couple of days are supposed to have some downside, I'm thinking the Dow will re-test the low 25400's area for a buy point.

He was saying something about 2015.75, interest rates, and confidence as well on the blog recently, I think it might've been the public one. I never paid much attention, just skipped it over.

Maybe he also does´t say buy here or sell here due to legal reasons. On every trading blog, website or video they always post a disclaimer saying trade at your own risk etc. Not sure how this law works but it could be part of it. If he posts, 100% this will go down and it goes up maybe he could set himself up to be sued, again.

About the Dow weekly array, it clearly shows next week 10/22 as the turning point with a directional change. So this week, if the arrays are (always) correct, MUST close lower. If it does not how will Armstrong be able to justify it? This time there is no posible cycle inversion, panic cycle, composite 2, empirical etc. turning points. The array is as clear as it gets in this case.

[trc4949]

We are now only 14 trading days away from the USA election.

It just occurred to me almost exactly what is about to happen to the stock market.

Remember 2016 November election ?

I think we are about to get a repeat of that during the next FOURTEEN trading DAYS

All you have to do is LOOK at the 2016 price action into early November 2016.

We will swing down there hard after a bit more choppiness this and next week.

So price will suffer extreme anxiety into that election date and then immediately after you will see a HUGE upwards surging rally that does not look back and goes vertical higher and very swiftly.

You will see the sp500 get to 3000 faster than a new york minute after that.

The theory ?  The current premise is that the democrats will take over.  But I think the opposite will occur and that will send the market rocketing higher same as in 2016.

So it is looking like the max stretch point of the slingshot is election day... then nothing but higher from there.

[MA_talk]

Maybe he also does´t say buy here or sell here due to legal reasons. On every trading blog, website or video they always post a disclaimer saying trade at your own risk etc. Not sure how this law works but it could be part of it. If he posts, 100% this will go down and it goes up maybe he could set himself up to be sued, again.

About the Dow weekly array, it clearly shows next week 10/22 as the turning point with a directional change. So this week, if the arrays are (always) correct, MUST close lower. If it does not how will Armstrong be able to justify it? This time there is no posible cycle inversion, panic cycle, composite 2, empirical etc. turning points. The array is as clear as it gets in this case.

That is entirely NOT true.  I've subscribed to various other newsletters, and NO such restriction exists, possibly with the exception of micro-cap stocks.  I've seen how people manipulate the trading record EVEN when everything is made available to the subscribers, with all sorts of tricks that I can even write a book about all the tricks.  VERY FEW are totally honest.  That shows you the overall record of this particular business of stock market newsletter.  It is simply terrible.  And all the facts show that.  Extremely few people can even beat the index ETF on a consistent basis.  Armstrong will not be any exception.  Warren Buffet is one of the few exceptions, but the way he invests, NO ONE can repeat that, because he TAKES OVER the management of his investment most of the time, and then it becomes really running a business successfully, INSTEAD of investing successfully.  That helps tremendously to boost his investing record.

If so many other newsletters can post the hypothetical or his personal trading record in their newsletters, so can Armstrong.  He doesn't do it, most likely because it will tell you the real story of all the trading failures.

Again, I'm here posting essentially pro-bono for your benefits, and all I'm saying is to truly hold Armstrong to his own forecast arrays & words and collect the statistics.

[Kiwibird]

We are now only 14 trading days away from the USA election.

It just occurred to me almost exactly what is about to happen to the stock market.

Remember 2016 November election ?

I think we are about to get a repeat of that during the next FOURTEEN trading DAYS

All you have to do is LOOK at the 2016 price action into early November 2016.

We will swing down there hard after a bit more choppiness this and next week.

So price will suffer extreme anxiety into that election date and then immediately after you will see a HUGE upwards surging rally that does not look back and goes vertical higher and very swiftly.

You will see the sp500 get to 3000 faster than a new york minute after that.

The theory ?  The current premise is that the democrats will take over.  But I think the opposite will occur and that will send the market rocketing higher same as in 2016.

So it is looking like the max stretch point of the slingshot is election day... then nothing but higher from there.

This^  Do we finally get a Slingshot move during the election?  I agree, the markets should take off if the Reps get in.  If they don't and the Democrats win..what happens to the markets?

https://vimeo.com/198896912 - watch from 2hrs50mins
'..Rule in the DOW - before the Market makes a major move, it goes opposite and scares everyone.  On election day the DOW made a big move down 800 points.  17,300 was the Double Monthly Bearish - it stopped at 17,400 - THE FALSE MOVE.  Then reversed and went up.  ..'

Latest blog (as posted above) says if there is a daily close in the DOW below 24,898 then we will retest the lows..perhaps the DOW will close just above that number, fail to take out that reversal and then slingshot up?  Obvs that number can change depending upon price action between now and election day...
However, Armstrong has said 'is the trade of the century knocking on our door?'  I believe this means a slingshot will happen to shake the tree, then shoot up..?
But, that's my opinion and he says just follow the reversals and be unemotional about it.

If 24,898 is penetrated, my notes say the next Weekly Bear is 24,101 and the next Monthly Bear is 23,997.20 (my notes are a mess so could be wrong!)

[trc4949]

Well so far it is starting to look like the spx cash will close UNDER 2767 today which. Ould set up a mini crash into the new moon on Friday October 24th .

 Notable also is that arch Crawford said that Uranus opposes the new moon on October 24th which means revolution.

Uranus also opposes aries ? On November 6th election day which also means revolution

[Wall_Streeet]

many market participants are willing to just say something for the General PR of his personality, thanks to bitcoin

[bigtimespaghetti]

has anyone ever actually had a question answered by MA? The one time I emailed him (a long time ago about bitcoin, maybe in 2015) I got a response from his staff that he does not in fact take any questions by email or from people.

So where do these questions on his blog come from? This is something that has bothered me ever since, despite enjoying his blog. Which I take with a grain of salt.

Also good to see him still being discussed here.

[trc4949]

Just got an email from Martin Armstrong.

"Don't miss the trade of the century"

The Armstrong Computer Model called the peak in the NASDAQ in August. It called the peak in the S&P 500 in September and the Dow’s high during the first week of October. Next up, a Panic Cycle in November, which coincides with the critical turning point on the Armstrong Pi Model on Thursday, November 22.

The US mid-term elections, the Italian budget crisis, and the Brexit negotiations are the latest catalysts for the continued shift from public to private assets, which will have massive implications for the bond market. The models are also pointing to a critical juncture for stocks, interest rates, and currencies. At the World Economic Conference (November 16 and 17) we will explore the current trends and give specific numbers defining the next move on all the key markets with a special focus on the potential set-up for the “Trade of the Century.”

The key going forward for investors and money managers is to be properly positioned with the trend.

At the World Economic Conference, we will decode the trends that are unfolding using our proven proprietary models. The volatility ahead will either become a favorable trading opportunity or a devastating loss depending on your ability to understand the trend in motion. This is an event you can’t afford to miss.



He must see something happening imminently because they tend to time the sending of these emails with huge market moves to get better sign up rates....

[MA_talk]

No, as I said previously, Armstrong ALWAYS tries to manipulate readers' emotions by writing blog post or sending this email out at the MOST VOLATILE time.

I seriously don't remember that he made ANY calls in respect the the recent market high.  He has NEVER said that those ARE the high.  And from this email, it is NOT clear whether they ARE the high.

BUT if they ARE the high, you will no doubt hear Armstrong blogging everywhere and boasting that he CALLED the high.

Darn, if I see this email earlier, I would have bought into the low today.  I want to take the opposite trade of Armstrong's emails/blog.

[NotFromReddit]

I seriously don't remember that he made ANY calls in respect the the recent market high.  He has NEVER said that those ARE the high.  And from this email, it is NOT clear whether they ARE the high.

Yea, me neither

[MA_talk]

By the way, don't you "love" the way Armstrong states itin his promotional email, using the term "trade of the century" over and over again?

How much more emotion is he going to stir in the readers that

1. The trade will be super-profitable for the longest term possible.
2. The trade should be kind of safe as well, since it's "of the CENTURTY".
3. And yeah, you don't know what it is, because you have to shell out > $1000 for more ambiguous forecasts at the conference.

The sling-slot scenario for US stock market that Armstrong has been describing, I believe, will NOT come for a LONG time.  Only when a nation goes into the downward spiral like Venezuela will face such rise in private assets.  I used to buy into his garbage talk of USA dis-integrating into several parts and US dollar becoming junk (after 2032??  Not sure on the timing, he is always not clear.)  Now I think independently on my own.  USA will be very FAR from reaching that point.  When it does, sure, stocks will go up VERTICALLY.  That is the only way that I can think of for a VERTICAL market to happen.

But, I don't really think that doomsday is coming anytime soon.

And why does he keep mentioning sling-shot?  Because he wants you to think that you can make a super-big profit, if you could just listen and subscribe to him.

[MA_talk]

From Yahoo for DIA (Dow Jones 30 ETF)
                                                                       CLOSE                                   
Oct 24, 2018   252.40   252.89   245.18   245.64   245.64   7,624,261  Down from 23rd
Oct 23, 2018   249.04   252.93   247.52   251.67   251.67   7,339,100  Down from 22nd
Oct 22, 2018   255.07   255.44   252.20   253.04   253.04   4,662,600  Down from 19th
Oct 19, 2018   254.23   255.98   253.34   254.32   254.32   6,618,300

Didn't you quote from Armstrong saying that 23rd was a Directional Change???

So does he have an English problem or a forecasting problem?  There is no direction change at all.

NOTE that 23rd was a Tuesday.  So he MUST have meant that to be a daily call.
If it was a call on weekly basis, then he would have used either 19th or 22nd.  I think almost everything would use 19th, but I "think" sometimes Armstrong uses Monday instead of Friday.

So that was a DIRECTION change?

WHY would ANYONE call a Directional Change when there is no change in direction?  If the term of directional change doesn't mean change in direction of the prices, then what the heck is that??  And please don't go back and interpret it as such, when Armstrong gets it right.

If reversing direction is directional change, and price continuing is also directional change, then this guy (Armstrong) really has some (forecasting) problem.

[sidhujag]

From Yahoo for DIA (Dow Jones 30 ETF)
                                                                       CLOSE                                   
Oct 24, 2018   252.40   252.89   245.18   245.64   245.64   7,624,261  Down from 23rd
Oct 23, 2018   249.04   252.93   247.52   251.67   251.67   7,339,100  Down from 22nd
Oct 22, 2018   255.07   255.44   252.20   253.04   253.04   4,662,600  Down from 19th
Oct 19, 2018   254.23   255.98   253.34   254.32   254.32   6,618,300

Didn't you quote from Armstrong saying that 23rd was a Directional Change???

So does he have an English problem or a forecasting problem?  There is no direction change at all.

NOTE that 23rd was a Tuesday.  So he MUST have meant that to be a daily call.
If it was a call on weekly basis, then he would have used either 19th or 22nd.  I think almost everything would use 19th, but I "think" sometimes Armstrong uses Monday instead of Friday.

So that was a DIRECTION change?

WHY would ANYONE call a Directional Change when there is no change in direction?  If the term of directional change doesn't mean change in direction of the prices, then what the heck is that??  And please don't go back and interpret it as such, when Armstrong gets it right.

If reversing direction is directional change, and price continuing is also directional change, then this guy (Armstrong) really has some (forecasting) problem.

he usually isnt correct like majority of market oracles. Just stick to his long term analysis and even that im iffy on.