Martin Armstrong Discussion

[MA_talk]

A long term call without any concrete date is as good as saying that the both of the hands of clock will be overlapped twice everyday.

I have been waiting earnestly to call him wrong on his plague cycle call from 2017 to 2020.  That is a span of 4 years, a really long period for any kinds of predictions, but ....

He said that international outbreak would occur by this time.  There is nothing much at all so far.  Maybe he will be right, who knows?  But my portfolio cannot wait until 2020.

When he wrote about plagues, he was using Black Death/Plague as the example, that had wiped out 1/3 of population.  If the magnitude is not anywhere close to that, then how about me calling seasonal flu that come every year?

And of course, his AI computer watches global capital, etc.  So getting the plagues, earthquakes, weather trends correct are all part of forecasting, as he claimed.

[1713459238]

1713459238

[MA_talk]

September 24 post that I was referring to:

On the daily level, we are trading within the Breakout Channel but have not pushed through the top. This allows plenty of room to retest the bottom-side of the channel.

We have a Daily Bearish at 26067 and a closing below that will signal a retest of support. The first Weekly Bearish lies at 25877 so this is where key support begins. AT the end of this week we also have the month-end closing. The Monthly bearish do not begin until below 24000.

One of the curiosities of the market behavior relative to our Reversals has been how critical reversals once elected reverse direction and become critical support. We have stood by and watched the 1362 level in gold stand on a monthly closing basis and 1341 on a quarterly closing come hell or high water. Now the 25800 in the Dow may be critical in general as support. If we tend to retest that area yet hold into year-end, then we could be creating a platform for a Vertical Market. That is not yet confirmed. Just keep this in mind and observing the remainder of the year.\

For month end close this Friday, we see support moving into October forming at the 25500-25000 level. Closing resistance will stand 26620. A closing ABOVE that may signal a rally into November.

Keep in mind that while we have craziness going on in Washington with the Deep State Coup slowly becoming exposed, the insanity in Europe is not to be ignored. We also have the Democrats in the USA secretly advocating war against Russia behind the curtain as retribution for Hillary's emails. Keep in mind this is very much like being blamed for coming home early to catch a thief in your home and then he blames you for returning early.

Today, we have support at the 26315 level and we are trading at 26584 at the time of this post. A close below 26519 today will warn of a further decline tomorrow is possible. The key target in time this week  is split Wed/Thurs and this is followed by Monday Oct 1st with a Panic Cycle the next day.

Once again, the failure to open above last week's high signals a retest of support is likely.

This is what I think about the "if-then-else" forecast.  Take ANY stock charts, and use Bollinger bands, or moving average, or etc.  As a visual example, look at Bollinger bands.  Now, you will say, what the heck, how come this indicator envelopes the stock price almost so perfectly??  Can I use it to sell calls & puts as some guaranteed profitable trades??

Now, you put that Bollinger bands to actual trading test, and then you will find out.  DUH!  It does NOT really have predictive power.  When a stock drops 20% in a day, the envelope changes POST-fact.  And it is simply a VISUAL artifact that when you are looking BACK in a historical chart, that it envelopes the stock prices quite well.

This is the SIMILAR process that Armstrong is playing with the readers' mind.  He continually tracks the market price, in a way, giving a guard band up & down, and it is simply a ILLUSION that you think he somehow has some predictive power, when in fact, you can obtain similar results using combinations of other technical analysis.

That's why I kept saying that the golden way of proving anybody's worth is simply put in ACTUAL trades with ACTUAL percentage/dollar amount.  You cannot trade $100, and then trade $200, and then trade $400, and then trade $800, and bet on exponentially increase amount, so that all you need to do is to win the last trade to show an overall profit, for example.

Armstrong will not do that.  Instead, he remains ambiguous, so that he can be always right.  The FACT that he is a lot more often ambiguous than concrete is essentially giving away that he cannot forecast accurately.  Always remember that what is NOT being said quite often has more and the true information beyond everything that is being said.


And again, you CANNOT say that DIRECTIONAL CHANGE does NOT mean ANYTHING.  If that does NOT mean anything, then WHY does Armstrong keep using the terms of Directional Change, Turning Point, Panic Cycle, etc, etc.  WHY do you want to overlook his mistakes??  You MUST hold ALL of his forecast to its worth.  If you DON'T, how can you tell which part means more, and which part means less??

So you put out "what you THINK" based on your forecast.  ANOTHER human being or subscriber will THINK differently.  And that is Armstrong's trick.  At ANY given time, some people will get it right, and some people will get it wrong.  And that is just perfect.  Since he does NOT know which way, as long as the "some people" who get it right to continue to convince the people who get it wrong for Armstrong, his "perfect" forecast record will continue.  He would say, see "someone" made a BIG profitable trade, when in fact, NOBODY could have interpreted his stuffs always in the same way.

[MA_talk]

So you mean that any time Armstrong talks about Turning Point or Directional Change, they are just BS, and we should just ignore that, right?

Just tell me what you think are valuable & accurate, and let's focus on that, and you need to collect statistics on that.  So the conclusion here is that all TP and DC are bull-shits.  So there is a lot of bullshits from him then.

You canNOT cherry-pick ANY sentences from him.  What is the criterion on that??  Pick anything that hits, and drops anything that doesn't hit???

Armstrong always uses "may" this, "may" that.  So if it doesn't, then he IS not wrong.  And if it does, he IS right.  So he is always right???

[MA_talk]

By the way, for the record, there has NOT been any 2-day bounce in this decline.

So since that sentence is WRONG, then we should ALL ignore that sentence and move on, and find the right sentence that he is accurate, right?

bikefront, it's none of my business on what you want to choose to believe.  This is a free country, and anyone is free to speak, and free to choose what they want to believe.

If you are a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to test out all of Armstrong's words, and make sure they're trust-worthy, before you commit your capital into investing accordingly.

Best luck, but I don't have that much time posting here, as I do have a 7-digit net worth to manage myself.

[wingsthegreat21]

All I can say we are in big big trouble if America is the most powerful country by far compared to Europe and Asian countries. I thought China was catching up but if that's not so the bad shape America is in and it has a far better economy than other countries we are in big trouble. We have bubbles all over the place, Auto, student loan, housing and stocks. They can't afford to pay the pensioners they can't afford ssi, they can't afford this big military and over 100 million people are out of work and this is the best economy in the world. My goodness May God the Father help us.

[sidhujag]

yes just ignore his short term stuff its normally wrong but your brain is the edge. Just stick to your fundamental analysis and 1% edge and you can get rich trading. Many will take 15 yrs to learn that rule many never will because they wont understand themselves enough to trade.

Those that are successful in trading are those that know themselves the best. I think IQ doesnt really come to play as much as some think.

[Kiwibird]

https://imgur.com/a/XjmXL This was the 'user guide' I was referring to. As you can see, some of the quotes are directly from Armstrong's page. Some of the forecast rows (like directional change) are highly varied, but the composite turning point model is not. The Reversals are also pretty clear cut; electing one means testing the next.

In this case, pay attention to the last sentence: 'signals a retest of support is likely'. As we know, Armstrong is frequently ambiguous BUT this one is much less so. He clearly chooses direction; the question is simply a matter of how much. Now, if one were to have shorted, they would have made money, but the amount would be the question. The turning points are also ambiguous- most of the time. I recently found out that he tends to only use 'strongest targets' as turning points- so for example, only the highest bars on the plot as opposing events instead of a trending composite which I had tried to do before. Like the 17th he mentioned, which was the high before the resumption of the decline. Yes, the 'bounce into Monday for 2 days' was ambiguous because I did not know if he was referring to Monday in the 2 days as well or not. But again, the intraday break of 2760 into 2720 was correct, as well as the 2795 intraday resistance which actually was the high of the day. And as said before, IF the market closes above or below certain numbers, then the market should rise/fall. Remember the 3 numbers? TRC's post on October the 19th:

Well so far it is starting to look like the spx cash will close UNDER 2767 today which. Ould set up a mini crash into the new moon on Friday October 24th .

TRC obviously is a sceptic as well and repeating that forecast was in jest in that manner because he did not think it would happen, but yes, it happened precisely like that.

Hi Bikefront - i want to pm you..but your settings don't allow it.  please amend if you like?

[trc4949]

Totally thrown off by Marty's recent update.  I like Marty and I have gotten plenty of value from his sharing of knowledge.  But today's update post about us possibly going into a crash is just nuts.  Why didn't he tell me we were going to crash in early October?  THAT was the time to go full short.   I appreciate traders and forecasters who take a stand and TELL ME what their high confidence market call is at the current time.  But so many of these traders and services are afraid to put their finger on the chopping block for fear of lawsuits and loss of credibility.  

But in my view, I like trading guidance services who take a strong confident stand on exactly where they think the market will move and if it will move big or not.

The double talk and hee-hawing is just too confusing.

Also, I have to get this off my chest.  I am tired of him constantly MIXING politics and what president Trump did or what the Democrats are doing within his trading language and forecasts.   Either be a technical trader or not, but don't mix and mash, this is one of the worst offenses of the trading discipline.



I will actually respect a market forecaster a lot more who makes an aggressive call and is wrong, than one that is constantly double talking and taking both sides and all cautious and afraid to say what he really thinks the next big move is.

[trc4949]

Yes but the fly in the ointment is that Marty is saying that a DJIA monthly close under 21,600 would imply a complete inversion and move down in the market into 2020.  So then that would caution NOT to buy any big selling low in November.

Can it happen?  Well there are only 3 days left in October and we are only 12.5% from 21,600.   

The RSI is near the 30 zone and ALL PREVIOUS worst market crashes have STARTED under the RSI 30 level. 

In both 1987 and 1929 the price action dropped 30 Percent right starting from the RSI 30 level.

AND it occurred within 3 to 4 trading days.

And we have now just 7 trading days until the election.

We might actually have a decent shot at hitting 21,600 as a monthly close which would invert Marty's cycle and cause the stock market to plunge into 2020.

I re-read the post. The ideal low looks like in November but although the nasdaq did not elect its bearish reversal, it did still close under the 7197 number at only 7167 so it does seem like the nasdaq's low is not yet in place. We still have to wait until we can long this market. So not necessarily next week, but next 2 weeks, most likely during the week of 11/5

[trc4949]

I guess I disagree completely with Marty's reversal system and these endless numbers.   If you sit around and wait for the numbers to get hit often you will get whipsawed.  By the time the market reaches the numbers the trade is almost over.

[sidhujag]

Totally thrown off by Marty's recent update.  I like Marty and I have gotten plenty of value from his sharing of knowledge.  But today's update post about us possibly going into a crash is just nuts.  Why didn't he tell me we were going to crash in early October?  THAT was the time to go full short.   I appreciate traders and forecasters who take a stand and TELL ME what their high confidence market call is at the current time.  But so many of these traders and services are afraid to put their finger on the chopping block for fear of lawsuits and loss of credibility.  

But in my view, I like trading guidance services who take a strong confident stand on exactly where they think the market will move and if it will move big or not.

The double talk and hee-hawing is just too confusing.

Also, I have to get this off my chest.  I am tired of him constantly MIXING politics and what president Trump did or what the Democrats are doing within his trading language and forecasts.   Either be a technical trader or not, but don't mix and mash, this is one of the worst offenses of the trading discipline.



I will actually respect a market forecaster a lot more who makes an aggressive call and is wrong, than one that is constantly double talking and taking both sides and all cautious and afraid to say what he really thinks the next big move is.

there does not exist a service to tell you in a random walk what the next 4 steps ahead will be.. all they can do is guess as you do. Those that claim they can predict are lying to you. All you can do is look at technicals and fundamentals and trade where money is going now.and not later. Anyone saying this date it will crash or after this number hits it will bounce will likely cause you to lose money.

[fauzan Ichsan]

Totally thrown off by Marty's recent update.  I like Marty and I have gotten plenty of value from his sharing of knowledge.  But today's update post about us possibly going into a crash is just nuts.  Why didn't he tell me we were going to crash in early October?  THAT was the time to go full short.   I appreciate traders and forecasters who take a stand and TELL ME what their high confidence market call is at the current time.  But so many of these traders and services are afraid to put their finger on the chopping block for fear of lawsuits and loss of credibility.  

But in my view, I like trading guidance services who take a strong confident stand on exactly where they think the market will move and if it will move big or not.

The double talk and hee-hawing is just too confusing.

Also, I have to get this off my chest.  I am tired of him constantly MIXING politics and what president Trump did or what the Democrats are doing within his trading language and forecasts.   Either be a technical trader or not, but don't mix and mash, this is one of the worst offenses of the trading discipline.



I will actually respect a market forecaster a lot more who makes an aggressive call and is wrong, than one that is constantly double talking and taking both sides and all cautious and afraid to say what he really thinks the next big move is.

there does not exist a service to tell you in a random walk what the next 4 steps ahead will be.. all they can do is guess as you do. Those that claim they can predict are lying to you. All you can do is look at technicals and fundamentals and trade where money is going now.and not later. Anyone saying this date it will crash or after this number hits it will bounce will likely cause you to lose money.

The low should form on the week of 11/05 either intraday or lowest closing basis unless there's a Reversal election implying further decline. This is a testable hypothesis.

i think like that too, when this happens again bleeding in market. certainly will lead to lowest target before reversal trend occurs. and at the end of this year i think price increase is not too significant, unlike last year

[Kiwibird]

From today:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/merkel-has-been-the-face-of-europe-so-get-ready/
"..The consolidation is about to end. So buckle up – we will be on our way to something really extraordinary that no domestic analysis will ever see coming.
In that respect, it will be like the 1987 Crash that was caused by external factors that never appeared in domestic numbers or analysis. It was so significant, that is when the Presidential Commission was compelled to request all our international research to understand how external factors overpower domestic.
So welcome of 2018. This is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Better than any movie or TV show – that’s for sure!.."

a bit of background;
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/panics/20th-century/the-1987-crash/
"..When we look at the capital flows for this period, we can see the wild and crazy swings that became the hallmark of the 1987 Crash. The swings in capital returning to Japan clearly contributed to creating the 1987 Crash, which was then followed by the capital concentration in Japan manifesting in the Bubble there for December 1989 also in line with our Economic Confidence Model target 1989.95...
.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped by 508 points to 1738.74 (22.61%). Domestically, investors called their brokers asking what was going on. Failing to understand currency, they did not realize why foreign investors were selling based on their belief that the dollar would have to fall much further. This had nothing to do with domestic economic statistics.."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/our-world-tour-sponsored-by-institutions-began-in-1988/
"..After the 1987 crash, we were the only firm who had forecast the event within 30 ticks of the low and the TIME. But we then forecast that the market would rally to new highs. That was a shocking forecast, and we also made the day of the low. It was after that event when institutions around the world began begging us to give presentations to their clients. It was naturally in their self-interest to tell their clients we were the best.'"

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/october-19th-30-year-anniversary-1987-crash/
"..Now we talk about 1987 which was 30 years ago. I was giving a WEC that weekend. We just elected a set of Double Weekly Bearish Reversals. The Arrays called for a low in 2 days. There were no other reversals between 286 and 180.
I remember standing up there trying to find some technical support between 286 and 180. I could not. There was nothing between the two even technically. The audience asked me what would happen? I said look, it sounds nuts, but we should move down 10,000 basis point in two days.
I myself could not believe it. But people paid me for what the computer had to say, not my opinion.
When that happened, it was right on the ECM date. It was absolutely perfect to the T.
Everyone was calling for the 1929 collapse. The model said new highs by 1989. That’s when brokerage houses were begging me to please come and speak to their retail audiences. I agreed and went to Toronto for Midland Daugherty. They filled the place with thousands of people..."

His WEC 2018 is November 16+17......  his ECM date is 21 November...

[MA_talk]

Kiwibird, I used to believe firmly in what Armstrong claimed about his forecast for 1987 (and whatever he claimed).  After last 16+ years of observing him extremely closely, I no longer believe that with all of the small & big lies from Armstrong that I've digged up.

In a court or a debate, you would never take just one person's words.  Same for this.  I wasn't there in his 1987 WEC (in fact, it wasn't called WEC at all).  You need evidences & witness.  And forget about the November ECM dates.  As I have said previously, the last ECM dates were OFF by some 6 days, even given with his OWN writings, with all kinds of numbers using 8.6, 8.615, 8.615xyz for the cycle length.

He has a record of telling outrageous claims (AI & speech recognition back in 1980 or earlier, AI computer self-awareness, ECM dates accurate down to the day, readers' sending comments when in fact most likely he made all that up with all kinds of typical typos from himself, etc.)  I am unable to trust someone who has such record, and use ambiguous words.

Remember that in the last promotional email that he sent to so many past customers that he just claimed again that he called the high in Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq.  I mean, REALLY?

If he is forced to make 50 more seats for his WEC because too many are going (same or 1 day after he sent out that promotional email), he wouldn't need to send such promotional emails out.  Instead, he should have just wrapped up the attendance list, and be done with it.

So take your guess.  Again, a person on straightdope.com who went to WEC has said that Armstrong kind of just total BS thru the conference, providing very vague forecast if any.

Don't know how to trust any words from Armstrong.  What he does best is curve-fitting the market as the market goes up & down.  If-this-then-that.  Such statements don't have a lot of tradable values.  How about call out an actual BUY or SELL???  Wouldn't that clear out any potential confusion??  But that would immediately EXPOSE a wrong trade or call, if the market goes against him, and I don't think he wants that to happen ever.

[Thekees]

New post tonight:

We can see what happened after we elected the Weekly Bearish Reversals. Nevertheless, we have a Directional Change due tomorrow so do not expect a tremendous collapse. I find it interesting how the yearly level on the Global Market Watch which had been pointing to 2018 as a possible high, it has now flipped with this price action to new highs are still likely. Keep in mind that is a PURE pattern recognition model, separate and distinct from everything else.
We still see next week as the main target. The polls are showing that the Republicans will lose the House. That definitely has capital scared. The Democrats are just hostile right now and it does not matter if something is good or bad - they are simply out for revenge. That is what has capital really upset.
As we approach month-end closing, a simple close below the September low of 2575432 will be a technical bearish indication for on the Dow at least, that would be an outside reversal to the downside. The next monthly turning point will be December and of course we have the big convergence of four models coming in together for November.
The number to watch will be 23995 followed by 23340. These are the two important numbers to watch for month end closing. Keep in mind that electing both will point to a Panic to the downside will point to a test of the 21-22000 area. Keep in mind that at year-end, we need a closing above 24720.
So, nothing yet indicates anything serious just yet. A slingshot move would certainly come into play if we get a monthly close below 23995. However, a closing BELOW 22415 at the end of the month will also warn of a decline into November.
---
Also part of the post but taken from Socrates' automatically generated summary:

OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF Mon. Oct. 29, 2018: Dow Jones Industrials closing today of 2444292 immediately is trading down about 1.11% for the year from last year's closing of 2471922. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 9 days, while we have made a low at 2412223 following the high established Tue. Oct. 16, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high intraday and closed below that same session low creating an outside reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 3.66%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side closing beneath the previous session low and it remains below all center cyclical support models as well. Nonetheless, the market remains quite bearish below all our system indicators.

We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 2447812 settling at 2468831. The current crash mode support for this session was 2427363 which we penetrated intraday but we closed back above that level finishing at 2444292 implying the market is still rather vulnerable yet sustaining for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 2393385. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 2518936 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Last day we did see an outside reversal to the downside, which is a warning that we have at least a pause in trend at this moment. If we penetrate that low of 2412223 and close below it this session, then we can see further downside ahead in price movement. Otherwise, holding that low intraday allows for a pause and consolidation briefly.

So looking at the array today should make at least a lower close than yesterdays close but given the Directional change it could be a spike lower and price should make lows ideally until 11/05 but maybe just till 11/02 because of the Comp II bar?

[Kiwibird]

MA - As I said before, I personally met Larry Edelson (now deceased) back in 2015 - he and Armstrong have been friends since the 80s.. if you bother to watch The Forecaster he is in the documentary confirming Marty forecast that 87 event..We spoke at length in the bar after his Q&A session for The Forecaster documentary screening about his life bullion trading, Socrates and Armstrong.  So straight from a horses mouth so-to-speak.

Michael Campbell of Money Talks.net (https://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-story/ - click on Michael Campbell) goes on record confirming his accurate prediction in the documentary.

And you can watch WEC 2016 online for free... forecasts made then were not vague and came true.  He (Erwin) said the DOW would Phase Transition from then (2016) until 2018 which it did.

Is this what you mean about his AI?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/is-conversational-ai-here/
"..When I was working on developing Socrates’ Natural Language, I was not interested in creating a machine to debate me. I was interested in creating a machine that I could at least have a conversation with. I teamed up with Dragon Systems back then when it was still hardware. I built a system and gave it to my children so that the computer could learn how to keep a conversation going. It would remember what they spoke about, so the next time they came back its knowledge base grew. I came home one day and found my daughter by the computer with all her girlfriends, for apparently they did not believe she could communicate with the computer. No doubt all her friends ran home and demanded a talking computer from their fathers. Needless to say, it taught me a lot about how to create a machine to have a conversation with and this was back in the 1980s..."

https://www.howestreet.com/2017/11/29/ai-v-self-aware/
The AI that people think they are watching is a fully cognitive robot that is self-aware. I wrote a program for my children back in the early 1980s. I installed a Dragon voice board and wrote a program to be a politician. It would interact with my children and record likes and dislikes. When my daughter would go back the next day, it would ask about something it knew like how is your dog.
The politician part came into play whenever it did not understand a line of conversation. It would simply change the subject. My kids would bring friends over and did not understand that the computer I created was not exactly off the shelf. They would tell their friend that their computer talked.
Likewise, Socrates is not cognitive. It understands how to analyze and go well beyond what humans are capable of. However, it is still not self-aware. I personally do not believe a computer can simply become self-aware by evolution. That theory is really based on the idea that there is no God and we have emerged simply because of our brain structure. Thus, if we create a neural net big enough, the theory is consciousness will somehow emerge as did we. I do not buy that."

Note he says Socrates is not self-aware...

[Thekees]

That's what I thought but trending composite doesn't necessarily mean an uninterupted trend. Only that turning points are supposed to be opposites. I wouldn't use Comp2 and stuff, it just means anything can be interpreted any way and that doesn't mean anything. I did expect a lower close based on the next direction change and/or  previous turning point bu who knows. A new post states that the what if bullish reversal is 25588 for this month end closing. So far it looks like nothing is going to be elected

Yeah, I have seen that a few times now, I guess its not so simple as is explained in the guide. Regarding the Comp2 and empirical and all that, the German guy in the Vimeo WEC conference says he does use them and draws the price in. Also, what the hell are the other arrays for if they are not used? what good are the alpha, beta, empirical cycles?

The arrays would be more simple and clear were it not also for the directional changes that to me really make no sense. In the private blog post today for example martin said, the support price encountered and the directional change caused the bounce, but what about the second directional change? Did it shift the turning point or cancel the turning point because we have now closed higher than the previous bar which was a turning point, exactly the thing the array is used to predict. Its still all very confusing.

[Thekees]

Agree. Honestly, I don't even try to interpret the arrays myself anymore. I only go by what Armstrong says, but when he says something I don't fully get, I just leave it alone and do my own thing. When his analysis and my own match, I go for the trade. His trend analysis is really good, and the Reversals are simple to understand and much easier to follow, so I tend to gravitate towards those.

1258 in gold looks like a good place to short when it gets there, and then cover at around 1238. Might get that in November. Actually, 1214 today in gold was a good entry long point I'd say, and we should get 1238 soon for the exit.

Yeah Marty said gold should see a high in November so I agree it is a nice entry point. Their is a weekly bullish at 1267 and a monthly at 1276, if it can reach here would be excellent place to short gold.

Marty also said the Dax had a bearish monthly at 11868 which we elected now, he says there is a massive gap now till 10400. I just wonder what he means by gap, will it drop to the next level in only 1 time frame, so it should get there by December?

[Kiwibird]

Marty also said the Dax had a bearish monthly at 11868 which we elected now, he says there is a massive gap now till 10400. I just wonder what he means by gap, will it drop to the next level in only 1 time frame, so it should get there by December?

I had asked a similar question a while ago re the DOW to Socrates Support and had a reply (from Erwin I think) regarding the election of Reversals and the time frame.  
His reply: "...If reversals are taken out you don't wait. The rule is, if we close above/below more then 1%, then the market will retrace to the reversal with no time given.
The rule of 3 applies to any reaction in a bear market usually the 3 time units. So if a rally is expected look for 3 time units.  Strong bear market 3 days or weeks. If a market needs to align itself like gold with other cycles it can be 3 quarters or 3 years as in Gold now.."

So the DAX closed 31 Oct at 1144751 and the Monthly Bear was "..1186880. Taking out this area and we have a large GAP down to the 1040000 zone.."
The September close was 1226589 and it closed October at 1144751, more than 1% past the 1186880 Monthly Reversal.  As there is a gap down i would class this as a strong bear market, so the 3 time-unit rally back up to test the reversal would be 3 days or weeks only - then gap down to 10400 by...? That 10400 price in my mind would intercede with TIME, so yes I think the next Time factors Marty mentions are "..We will also see December and February begin to shape up as important turning points which should produce the opposite of each other."

(Where he says "if the reversals are taken out you don't wait" was in relation to my query regarding the the DOW which was in its Bullish Phase Transition.  In that respect, taking out Bullish reversals by more than 1% in that sort of market, you just jump in and don't wait for any retest, because there is unlikely to be one in such a bullish market, and every Time turning point becomes a cycle inversion with new highs each time.)

[Kiwibird]

Ah, thanks for the answer Kiwi. Because its a monthly timeframe, it might be 3 months?

My original query asked that specifically - would the election of a Monthly Bearish Reversal mean you wait 3-Month-time-units for the reaction rally back to test, but his answer outlined above didn't confirm that - he wrote 'a reaction in a strong bear market would be max 3 days or weeks.' That's how I translate it anyway : )

So i guess we wait to see if the DAX retests within the next 3 days or weeks..?