Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Lateralus]

So now it seems like the Low may be in place and we could see a cycle inversion! Armstrong says that the major weekly is now the around the 26000 level and if we elect that then it could mean the low is in place.

They array clearly shows that the turning point with DC was last week, so the high should be in, but there is also a panic cycle so we could make a higher high and then collapse or just drop down, but is there also a possibility that we price just shoots up and ignore the top column of the arrays?? Maybe it is just best to ignore the arrays when there is a panic cycle like when there is a DC since anything can happen.

I guess this is what some of you have been talking about, no matter what happens he will turn out right, he has hedged his bets. New low, he is right, new high he is correct again.
When we made the low near 21600 he started saying the low was not in yet and we would see lower lows, now he changed his tone and is saying the low could be in.

I see what you're saying but I still don't think it is a correct way of describing his forecasts. If (reversal election) ---> Then ---> Else is not the same as saying "we either make new lows or we don't". We have yet to have any real-time access to his reversals through Socrates, and IMO it is very hard to use his system without having all the reversals charted in real time. Trying to make short term trades off the inconsistent output of information that he posts in his private blog is a fools errand, we NEEDED Socrates to do any real trading. Now that Socrates is out, this is the real test of his system IMO.

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[MA_talk]

Haven't read stuffs in this forum for weeks.

If Armstrong/Socrates cannot tell the difference between 8.6 vs 8.615, nor Oct 1st, 2015 vs Oct 4th, 2015 for ECM dates, my best guess is that he/Socrates cannot tell the difference between whether the low is in place or not  either.

And if you always glorifying all the winning calls, while ignoring all the failing calls, then sure, you are always right.

Remember 2019 is the final climax for his big Plague call, starting from 2014/2015(don't remember the initial dates), anyone remembers?  How about earthquake?  etc.

I'm sure the failures simply won't register, while we all register in memory of his best stunning calls.  Keep calling it, and you will get it right one way or the other.

His super-AI computer is supposed to watch over everything.  The economic system is a complex non-linear system, almost like weather in a way, where butterfly effects are REAL.  If you fail to account for one small thing, the whole forecast will be wrong.  And if he doesn't get the plagues and earthquakes correct, how can he get everything else correct?

[Lateralus]

I don't take his forecasts on the weather and earthquakes seriously, I doubt even he believes such forecasts are going to be reliably accurate considering all the unknown variables and limited amount of information available from inconsistent historical records. I think he is just speculating on these subjects out of sheer curiosity.

I think he suffers from Great Man's Syndrome, where he starts speculating on topics outside his area of expertise.

[sloanf]

I can't believe people can be so dumb not only to keep following this dirty charlatan but also paying him for his useless reports, conferences, subscriptions, etc.

After all what do you call an idiot who:
- keeps listening to a convicted felon who stole hundreds of millions of investor's money
- takes market recommendations from a disastrous trader who wasted billions of client's funds on bad trades
- worships an uneducated charlatan for his self-proclaimed knowledge on economics and history
- buys a subscription service allegedly based on AI and super computer that does not even exist?

He's been in this "sell crap" business for decades and still broke as hell much like his devoted followers. He has no offices, no employees, it's just a Wizard-of-Ozz one-man show. If he was at least 1% good as he claims he is, he would have been so rich so he wouldn't have to sell $5 subscriptions to housewives, students and unemployed. The only  reason he is selling you all that bs is that he is a total and complete failure both in forecasting and trading. His disastrous trading record is public and officially verified and his forecast record is even worse.  When will you idiots finally learn?

[Lateralus]

I can't believe people can be so dumb not only to keep following this dirty charlatan but also paying him for his useless reports, conferences, subscriptions, etc.

After all what do you call an idiot who:
- keeps listening to a convicted felon who stole hundreds of millions of investor's money
- takes market recommendations from a disastrous trader who wasted billions of client's funds on bad trades
- worships an uneducated charlatan for his self-proclaimed knowledge on economics and history
- buys a subscription service allegedly based on AI and super computer that does not even exist?

He's been in this "sell crap" business for decades and still broke as hell much like his devoted followers. He has no offices, no employees, it's just a Wizard-of-Ozz one-man show. If he was at least 1% good as he claims he is, he would have been so rich so he wouldn't have to sell $5 subscriptions to housewives, students and unemployed. The only  reason he is selling you all that bs is that he is a total and complete failure both in forecasting and trading. His disastrous trading record is public and officially verified and his forecast record is even worse.  When will you idiots finally learn?

We're all so grateful you're here to save us from our ignorance.

[Kiwibird]

The Fed has been effectively raising rates gradually for the last 10 years. The cheering by the pundits claiming the Fed has yielded to the stock market only demonstrates their inability to ever be an international hedge fund manager for they are obviously clueless. I have explained the trend in detail on the general public blog. However, I do not post reversals of arrays there for obvious reasons.

We can see that 2018 was a Directional Change so a pull-back into 2019 was reasonable given this is now the final leg down of the ECM which bottoms in January 2020. Note that 2019 is the turning point and then we have another Directional Change in 2020 with a Panic Cycle in 2021. Volatility will rise from 2021 into 2023. It appears that rates will be rising after 2020 moving into 2023. While this will also be a commodity cycle, that is not the real cause of the rate rise we see on the horizon.
Rates will rise as more and more governments start to become obvious that there is a debt crisis brewing. With the rest of the world imploding, even China, rates will rise as a factor of a decline in public confidence. We still have 2021 showing as the beginning of the Monetary Crisis. There remains the risk of the Euro moving into crisis and this will result in rates rising. The ECM cannot stop Quantitative Easing no matter what they say.
Technically, the resistance stands at 2.67% on the Discount Rate at the Fed. So we have not broken out just yet. However, we did close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 2.25% settling at 2.5%. Therefore, we should fall back to retest support going into 2019 and then the breakout appears to be aligned with the ECM.

[trc4949]

maybe the panic cycle is still in play up here at recent highs...  initial reaction to fed is big rally..  but maybe by tomorrow panic cycle takes us back down to start the new month..

[dow_wizard]

A panic cycle did not play out this week yet, did it?

[sloanf]

So guys, how is your trade with spx put options going? Keep listening to Marti the Charlatan.

[MA_talk]

The Fed has been effectively raising rates gradually for the last 10 years. The cheering by the pundits claiming the Fed has yielded to the stock market only demonstrates their inability to ever be an international hedge fund manager for they are obviously clueless. I have explained the trend in detail on the general public blog. However, I do not post reversals of arrays there for obvious reasons.

We can see that 2018 was a Directional Change so a pull-back into 2019 was reasonable given this is now the final leg down of the ECM which bottoms in January 2020. Note that 2019 is the turning point and then we have another Directional Change in 2020 with a Panic Cycle in 2021. Volatility will rise from 2021 into 2023. It appears that rates will be rising after 2020 moving into 2023. While this will also be a commodity cycle, that is not the real cause of the rate rise we see on the horizon.
Rates will rise as more and more governments start to become obvious that there is a debt crisis brewing. With the rest of the world imploding, even China, rates will rise as a factor of a decline in public confidence. We still have 2021 showing as the beginning of the Monetary Crisis. There remains the risk of the Euro moving into crisis and this will result in rates rising. The ECM cannot stop Quantitative Easing no matter what they say.
Technically, the resistance stands at 2.67% on the Discount Rate at the Fed. So we have not broken out just yet. However, we did close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 2.25% settling at 2.5%. Therefore, we should fall back to retest support going into 2019 and then the breakout appears to be aligned with the ECM.

Like always, Armstrong doesn't tell you whether stocks will be higher or lower.  The first sentence is HINDSIGHT on 2018.  So that's meaningless.  As far as I can tell, Armstrong is saying stocks will retest low in 2019, and "possibly" going higher towards 2023.  Because Armstrong likes to use all these terms to place bets on both sides, you canNOT say for sure whether it will be higher or lower.
"Volatility" will rise from 2021 into 2023.  Usually volatility means breaking low, but we all know that it also means breaking high.  Given that he said that it's a commodity "cycle", you would think that it's going higher, BUT cycle doesn't mean going higher by itself.
Then Directional Change in 2020.  That again usually for most English speakers, that should literally mean changing in direction, BUT NOT for Armstrong.  Because his cycles CAN have inversion, and he NEVER tells you whether the cycle is inverting until closer to the END of the cycle.  Well, duh, by that time, I can see that TOO.

And since 2021 is a PANIC cycle, one of his favorite word that place bets on BOTH sides, it does NOT tell you whether it's panic UP, or panic DOWN.  Supposedly, it's an OUTSIDE year, breaking both high/low.  Again, usually PANIC is to the down side, but that is NOT always the case.  But since 2020 was a DIRECTION CHANGE, I would think that after PANIC, it "should be" going up, especially given what Armstrong said at the very end "breakout appears to be aligned with ECM".


I have read Armstrong for almost 2 decades now, and that is just typical of Armstrong.  First, he "reviews" on the part that he seemed to get it right (dismissing all of the missed calls).  Then, everything from him will be kind of clear, kind of cryptic, kind of okay, but really, if things don't go according to him, his "forecast" will continue to morph, according to recently broken supports or resistances, and then he morphs on whatever he has said.  BUT by the time, you or I would have forgot about what he said exactly way back then.  Since he always will track the market trends, you will always feel that yes, he is kind of right, while in the meantime, you forget about everything that he didn't get it correct.

You know, stocks already went up almost 18% from the recent low, and I don't need ANYONE to tell me that stocks won't go straight up forever.  Of course, it's going to pull back in whatever fashion.  But see what Armstrong is doing.  He just puts words on the pullback kind of continuously.  If it's not this week, it's next week, and then next week, etc.  Until he gets it right.  Essentially, just bet on the higher probability event continuously (whether it's earthquake, or stock corrections).  Then eventually, you will get it right.  HOW ABOUT call out the lowest/highest week or day for year 2019 RIGHT NOW??  Well, guess what, Armstrong will NEVER do that, BUT he is the FORECASTER with super AI-computer.

The problem is that actual trades are entirely different from words.  If stocks go up by another 5% before it pulls back by 10%, your shorts could have been stopped out with 5% loss, while you could have gained 5% instead.  But in terms of words, oh yeah, I can tell you now that Armstrong will "get it right" again and again.

So the only way to test whether Armstrong reports have any monetary values is to systematically track and phantom trade his calls on paper using a systematic method converting his words to trades.  If there are profits, it's good.  If there are no profits, then it's bad.  However, based on my personal experiences, at the time of highest volatility, at the low/high, Armstrong tends to come out and say that "see I told you so, and I was right".  And then you will tend to think "Darn, I have mis-interpreted his arrays & words, and darn, he is right."  Then you sell/buy in the panic.  And the next thing you know is that you just sold right at the bottom, or bought right at the peak.  And Armstrong was actually just "swimming (in words) along with the market" and blogs sensationally for more readership.

[swiftylul]

hi, i found this forum after looking for people out there that follow armstrong. Ive been reading his material for a couple years and recently upgraded to pro. Kind of frustrated because I am in a short position since I was expecting last week to be the directional change (per the arrays) and this week and next week would be down weeks. Lo and behold this week is spiking up in the dow and im sitting here trying to figure out where i went wrong? Do y'all see it turning around? The GMW on a daily level went from "KNEE JERK HIGH" yesterday to "BREAKOUT TO UPSIDE" today? wtf? I thought he said the market was hitting its peak two weeks ago???

[spunj]

Like always, Armstrong doesn't tell you whether stocks will be higher or lower.  The first sentence is HINDSIGHT on 2018.  So that's meaningless.  As far as I can tell, Armstrong is saying stocks will retest low in 2019, and "possibly" going higher towards 2023.  Because Armstrong likes to use all these terms to place bets on both sides, you canNOT say for sure whether it will be higher or lower.
"Volatility" will rise from 2021 into 2023.  Usually volatility means breaking low, but we all know that it also means breaking high.  Given that he said that it's a commodity "cycle", you would think that it's going higher, BUT cycle doesn't mean going higher by itself.
Then Directional Change in 2020.  That again usually for most English speakers, that should literally mean changing in direction, BUT NOT for Armstrong.  Because his cycles CAN have inversion, and he NEVER tells you whether the cycle is inverting until closer to the END of the cycle.  Well, duh, by that time, I can see that TOO.

And since 2021 is a PANIC cycle, one of his favorite word that place bets on BOTH sides, it does NOT tell you whether it's panic UP, or panic DOWN.  Supposedly, it's an OUTSIDE year, breaking both high/low.  Again, usually PANIC is to the down side, but that is NOT always the case.  But since 2020 was a DIRECTION CHANGE, I would think that after PANIC, it "should be" going up, especially given what Armstrong said at the very end "breakout appears to be aligned with ECM".


I have read Armstrong for almost 2 decades now, and that is just typical of Armstrong.  First, he "reviews" on the part that he seemed to get it right (dismissing all of the missed calls).  Then, everything from him will be kind of clear, kind of cryptic, kind of okay, but really, if things don't go according to him, his "forecast" will continue to morph, according to recently broken supports or resistances, and then he morphs on whatever he has said.  BUT by the time, you or I would have forgot about what he said exactly way back then.  Since he always will track the market trends, you will always feel that yes, he is kind of right, while in the meantime, you forget about everything that he didn't get it correct.

You know, stocks already went up almost 18% from the recent low, and I don't need ANYONE to tell me that stocks won't go straight up forever.  Of course, it's going to pull back in whatever fashion.  But see what Armstrong is doing.  He just puts words on the pullback kind of continuously.  If it's not this week, it's next week, and then next week, etc.  Until he gets it right.  Essentially, just bet on the higher probability event continuously (whether it's earthquake, or stock corrections).  Then eventually, you will get it right.  HOW ABOUT call out the lowest/highest week or day for year 2019 RIGHT NOW??  Well, guess what, Armstrong will NEVER do that, BUT he is the FORECASTER with super AI-computer.

The problem is that actual trades are entirely different from words.  If stocks go up by another 5% before it pulls back by 10%, your shorts could have been stopped out with 5% loss, while you could have gained 5% instead.  But in terms of words, oh yeah, I can tell you now that Armstrong will "get it right" again and again.

So the only way to test whether Armstrong reports have any monetary values is to systematically track and phantom trade his calls on paper using a systematic method converting his words to trades.  If there are profits, it's good.  If there are no profits, then it's bad.  However, based on my personal experiences, at the time of highest volatility, at the low/high, Armstrong tends to come out and say that "see I told you so, and I was right".  And then you will tend to think "Darn, I have mis-interpreted his arrays & words, and darn, he is right."  Then you sell/buy in the panic.  And the next thing you know is that you just sold right at the bottom, or bought right at the peak.  And Armstrong was actually just "swimming (in words) along with the market" and blogs sensationally for more readership.

I think you hit the nail on the head.  MA's market commentary is very difficult to trade off of.  I do like his general macro calls though and I use them as a reference when I'm looking at the charts that I'm butchering up. 

I'll try to post a $DIA chart here which I think shows a great example of why we are currently in "no man's land" right now.  I don't know if we'll break down are charge up at this point.  All you can do is wait and watch what the prices do.  (I'm sounding like Marty, aren't I?)  Anyway, I agree with you regarding all of his terminology with obtuse meanings.

https://www.spunj.com/attachments/dia-png.22/

[spunj]

hi, i found this forum after looking for people out there that follow armstrong. Ive been reading his material for a couple years and recently upgraded to pro. Kind of frustrated because I am in a short position since I was expecting last week to be the directional change (per the arrays) and this week and next week would be down weeks. Lo and behold this week is spiking up in the dow and im sitting here trying to figure out where i went wrong? Do y'all see it turning around? The GMW on a daily level went from "KNEE JERK HIGH" yesterday to "BREAKOUT TO UPSIDE" today? wtf? I thought he said the market was hitting its peak two weeks ago???

We feel your pain.  I'd hang on a little bit.  The day is still young and the DJIA has been pretty lackluster this week.  Trying to trade Armstrong's calls on a weekly basis has never worked out for me.  The monthly is okay and it gets better as you hit the quarterly and yearly...but at that point...you really don't have any advantage at all. 

[Lateralus]

You guys are putting too much focus on the arrays. It is the reversals which are the most powerful trading tool, and the reversals in combination with the arrays.

We have a massive gap in the DOW weekly bullish reversals between 25003 and 25996, tomorrow is the big test of that.

https://i.imgur.com/H3y4hPk.png

I've also been paying attention to the daily reversals, particularly the S&P 500 where we have another big gap. We were way out ahead of the daily bullish reversal earlier today, but we have pulled back. I think if we elect the 2696 daily reversal in the S&P today, it suggests we are likely to also elect the weekly reversal in the DOW tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/AcYboJe.png

I am posting my thoughts daily at reddit.com/r/aec, come join the conversation there.

[swiftylul]

You guys are putting too much focus on the arrays. It is the reversals which are the most powerful trading tool, and the reversals in combination with the arrays.

We have a massive gap in the DOW weekly bullish reversals between 25003 and 25996, tomorrow is the big test of that.

https://i.imgur.com/H3y4hPk.png

I've also been paying attention to the daily reversals, particularly the S&P 500 where we have another big gap. We were way out ahead of the daily bullish reversal earlier today, but we have pulled back. I think if we elect the 2696 daily reversal in the S&P today, it suggests we are likely to also elect the weekly reversal in the DOW tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/AcYboJe.png

I am posting my thoughts daily at reddit.com/r/aec, come join the conversation there.

where on socrates did you get that screenshot with all of the reversals?

[Edit: Figured it out!]

[jbreher]

im sitting here trying to figure out where i went wrong?

One possibility to consider:

...follow armstrong.

I don't have a position one way or the other. But perhaps you might want to think about whether or not your trust is misplaced?

[swiftylul]

im sitting here trying to figure out where i went wrong?

One possibility to consider:

...follow armstrong.

I don't have a position one way or the other. But perhaps you might want to think about whether or not your trust is misplaced?

appreciate the response. I hope i dont sound like im worshipping the guy but any credibility i have in him comes from the times I followed his advice and did well. however, i obviously dont always do "well" and lately ive been kind of questioning things as you can see in my initial post here. with him premiering his new platform, I figured id give it 3 months and then reasses whether or not this is someone i want to be following

[jbreher]

He wasn't wrong about the Weekly Reversal and ...

and

... and mentioned that a close above would constitute a wrong call.

Maybe I'm just too much of a simpleton, but that looks like cognitive dissonance to me.

[NotFromReddit]

As mentioned previously, Armstrongs calls are at times too flexible and infrequent to trade accurately. Although the Dow did only touch the Weekly reversal, the other high of last week made things ambiguous, as well as the Friday/Tuesday high. So many makes it unusable. He wasn't wrong about the Weekly Reversal and mentioned that a close above would constitute a wrong call.

Also, I do better with my own system. Will probably just do that instead. Heck, maybe I should make my own service. Clear cut and works most of the time, with multiple calls daily.

How's your performance for the past 6, 12, 18 months? Are you getting consistent returns?

[sloanf]

they will never admit they keep losing money because of their natural stupidity and because they cannot abandon their charlatanic idol. It's a psychological thing, call it Stockholm syndrome or whatever. I covered it earlier here:

You (and I don’t mean you personally because I don’t give a damn about you. I mean delusional and gullible idiots like yourself who exist only for getting ripped off by charlatans like MA) refuse to hear the truth because:
1.   You paid money for MA’s totally worthless reports and subscriptions full of wrong predictions, so for you it’s really hard to admit that you wasted your money and proved beyond all doubts your stupidity to everybody including MA. It’s like going to a standup comedy show. You go there thinking it’s going to be great. But very soon you realize that is not and you don’t find it funny. But nevertheless you laugh because you want to get something back on your wasted money. And most importantly, deep inside you don’t want to confess to yourself that you got fucked because it hurts your ego and self-esteem, that’s why you pretend it’s funny and you lie to yourself.
2.   In this complex and uncertain world absolute majority of people seek guidance, somebody to tell them what to do, what to think, etc. Somebody who can explain them things for they are not able to do so themselves. It’s like a blind who needs a guide-dog, like a child who asks his mommy “what’s this and what’s that”. That’s why throughout the whole history charlatans like MA have been popular. From voodoo shamans, oracles and priests of ancient Egypt to these days, they all appeal to people’s insecurities, exploit their weaknesses and emotions, not their reasoning. And when somebody tries to open their eyes with facts, people reject them. Not based on facts or reasoning, but because of their stupidity, deep insecurities, and fears. For people don’t want to lose that feeling of false protection, they prefer to remain in that sweet delusion that there’s somebody that would walk them through uncertainties. And when they think they found that somebody, they don’t want to lose him no matter what. But the hard reality is that there is no such person and never existed. Hello! You have to work yourself or you'll be getting fucked by armstrongs and the likes.