Martin Armstrong Discussion

[luckyplate]

The latest monthly arrays are showing a panic cycle AND volatility in both the S&P 500 and Dow for February, and the weekly arrays are showing this week as a panic cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive blowoff this week to shake out all the shorts and get everyone on the wrong side as Martin talks about, especially considering the lack of pressure from any weekly reversals in the DOW between here and 25966. That kind of rally would also go through 200 DMA in the S&P 500, which would be perfect for squeezing out every last short. We don't even have any daily reversals in the S&P 500 until 2785.

With that said it is possible the rally today could be the high and we gap down tomorrow, but I am leaning towards a bigger "blowoff". Whatever the case, I think this is a crucial week and I will be paying very close attention. Gold hasn't dropped much yet but I'm not worried, all my sources of analysis are saying the high is in so I would be very surprised if we broke towards new highs. We closed January 1 point below the first monthly Gold reversal, if that isn't the perfect test of Martin's system then I don't know what is.

There is a new pro level post by Martin Armstrong  on 17 feb.anyone can post for a discussion .thks.

[1713531727]

1713531727

[infofront]

Here you go:

We are now approaching the turning point in February. A failure to rally beyond this coming week will signal that we may then move to retest support going into May. Keep in mind that while US politics is now all about obstruction, May will be a major election in Europe where we see a rising tide of anti-EU candidates.


We still do not see a breakout to the upside and we would have to see a weekly closing above the 26000 level to raise that possibility. Meanwhile, this market can remain choppy as it prepares to respond to the coming change in the Business Cycle identified by the Economic Confidence Model due to turn in January 2020.


For now, governments are starting to implode on the state/province levels and certainly the municipal level. We are rapidly approaching the point where there will be the same or higher number of people collecting pensions from various governments than are presently working. This becomes economically unstable and will only result in civil unrest as it has always done throughout history.

[luckyplate]

Here you go:

Thanks for the input from infofr . The market has been on a bullish mode so far .so any pullback after this is possible and if a lower low is supported by may this will likely mark a bullish year for stock .so again any pullback towards the bearish reversal is a time to accumulate stocks .my indicator says the market is now in greed mode. Once it reach the extreme greed it will time to watch out for a correction and that does not happen until the 26000 for Dow  is surpass.this market strength is unusual and a rally for the first 3 months of the year really set the tone of the market.

We are now approaching the turning point in February. A failure to rally beyond this coming week will signal that we may then move to retest support going into May. Keep in mind that while US politics is now all about obstruction, May will be a major election in Europe where we see a rising tide of anti-EU candidates.


We still do not see a breakout to the upside and we would have to see a weekly closing above the 26000 level to raise that possibility. Meanwhile, this market can remain choppy as it prepares to respond to the coming change in the Business Cycle identified by the Economic Confidence Model due to turn in January 2020.


For now, governments are starting to implode on the state/province levels and certainly the municipal level. We are rapidly approaching the point where there will be the same or higher number of people collecting pensions from various governments than are presently working. This becomes economically unstable and will only result in civil unrest as it has always done throughout history.

[MA_talk]

MA, I believe Armstrong also mentioned that February could be consolidation due to failure to make new lows, or something to that effect. The clarity is not great. He said we could make new lows later.

I don't think it matters really. Anyway, I've been developing my system much more. There is no such thing as the Holy Grail, but I'm pretty close. Getting into the 9X% accuracy realm isn't easy when trading intraday, but when you take all the trueisms, supply, demand, and solid bread and butter technicals, it can be done. I'm not using Armstrong or following him anymore, but I will credit him for showing me several techniques by cooincidence that I have based my own system on that work tremendously well. Its more like I pieced some of the things he said together and made my own system. I'll say his Reversals elections work much better than Cycle/Timing thing, so he can provide value.

Ok, so Armstrong said that February is a Panic Cycle, and also he said that February could be consolidation.

So if he adds that February "could" make a high, and also February "could" make a low, he would have covered all possible scenarios, and since he used "could", he canNOT be wrong.

He is really a "great" forecaster.  How about stick to a single script, and don't use "could" all the time, and make some real predictions/real trades and stick to his own predictions, and be accountable for his own "forecasting" errors?

Isn't that essentially covering all possible cases, and then go back and just point out in whichever post that actually mentioned the correct scenario (while ignoring all other misses), and then claim for the credits?

If you place all bets both up, down, and both high/low volatility, then of course, one of the bets will pay off.  But in real trading with real money, you will lose money when you don't know which scenario will pay off.

[luckyplate]

I believe the stock has some room to go higher . Martin cannot be right on spot all the time. The market some times do invert .but I expect some corrections when the next top come in .can the 26000 be the major resistance ? 

[luckyplate]

Based on my own source this bull should continue until July and then start to consolidate downwards if the current vertical market continues in the bull direction. There is a high chance of breaking the 27000 level for a top this year .after that it should be a great shorting opportunity .the market should bounce like a yo-yo and test both extreme  highs and lows . patience  .

[Thekees]

Armstrong said that the weekly to watch is 25980 and there is also a daily at 25966.5 which we have now reached. Yesterday was a turning point and we could not elect the reversal so it should be the high. It is also a weekly turning point so it could also mean the high is in for the week.

[MA_talk]

MA, I believe Armstrong also mentioned that February could be consolidation due to failure to make new lows, or something to that effect. The clarity is not great. He said we could make new lows later.

I don't think it matters really. Anyway, I've been developing my system much more. There is no such thing as the Holy Grail, but I'm pretty close. Getting into the 9X% accuracy realm isn't easy when trading intraday, but when you take all the trueisms, supply, demand, and solid bread and butter technicals, it can be done. I'm not using Armstrong or following him anymore, but I will credit him for showing me several techniques by cooincidence that I have based my own system on that work tremendously well. Its more like I pieced some of the things he said together and made my own system. I'll say his Reversals elections work much better than Cycle/Timing thing, so he can provide value.

Ok, so Armstrong said that February is a Panic Cycle, and also he said that February could be consolidation.

So if he adds that February "could" make a high, and also February "could" make a low, he would have covered all possible scenarios, and since he used "could", he canNOT be wrong.

He is really a "great" forecaster.  How about stick to a single script, and don't use "could" all the time, and make some real predictions/real trades and stick to his own predictions, and be accountable for his own "forecasting" errors?

Isn't that essentially covering all possible cases, and then go back and just point out in whichever post that actually mentioned the correct scenario (while ignoring all other misses), and then claim for the credits?

If you place all bets both up, down, and both high/low volatility, then of course, one of the bets will pay off.  But in real trading with real money, you will lose money when you don't know which scenario will pay off.

Sometimes he is clear. He clearly called for a high and said he'd be wrong only if the market made a weekly close above the 25100 level. Well, the market did just that.  I don't think he addressed that in his recent post.

This is the main reason why I stopped following. Who knows, maybe I just didn't understand him correctly and I was wrong. But if ideas cannot be clearly communicated and understood by the target audience and it's results manifested, then it's value becomes subjective.

On that subject, let's talk about Armstrong-caused losses instead of gains.

bikefront, that is exactly always my point.  Science is based on scientific methods, meaning that the results can ALWAYS be duplicated.  The question here is whether Armstrong's blog/research or scam can deliver a positive non-trivial profitable value to his subscribers.  If the process of delivering this information is most of the time obscure (to hide all the forecasting errors), then scientifically, there is NO value.

Armstrong always quotes science, and laugh at economists.  But he cannot even consistently deliver values to the subscribers.

If one always say that every scenario "could" happen, or never count the losses/errors when he is wrong, of course, he is "always right".  Or if he uses 3.14, 3.14*1000, 3.14*100, 8.6, 8.616, 8.6xxxx, 72, 25.8, 26, 51.6, 52, 223, 224, 306, all sorts of numbers, and multiply them with days, weeks, months, quarters, years, and even 1 million years, and fill up the entire number line, and randomly pick worldwide international events to fit any points, of course, his Economic Confidence Model (ECM) will seem like to be magic.

Guess what, Armstrong cannot tell the difference between 10/01/2015, versus 10/07/2015 for his last ECM date.  To him, the math works out the same.  That is his "science".

[luckyplate]

A double top is possible if 26000 is surpass .with trump drumming the stock market .I can see the high in Dow  will be restested unless north Korea fire a missile at trump now .

[luckyplate]

Base on market structure if no correction comes before may this year  Dow can rally another 3000 points .my sources say correction will be minor and will be buying opportunity .the Dow has crack 26000 . failing to retest the 25000 by next week will indicate a likely breakout condition .what a yo yo this is .it still not extreme greed yet. Hand on to your horse .

[sloanf]

so how are you doing, sheep? What, Marti the Charlatan fucked you again? Who would have thought? 
Keep buying spx puts and waiting for the panic cycle promised you for weeks now.

[footlong24seven]

Been having serious FOMO after my quick flip almost a month ago (which Bike and I successfully traded). Got a new job that doesn't really afford me time to keep up with the trading day as it goes.

However, I agree with Bike that Marty and his system are on to SOMETHING and they work very well in CONJUNCTION with your own system if you have it established. Maybe Marty should just market Socrates like it should be - a supplement to what you already have in place. Kind of like just another reference point, because like Bike says (which I want to hear more specifics about), when you go through several different methodologies and systems, and they all agree on a certain target, then it's a pretty damn good bet.

What do the PROS use that is different than what we use, really? They look at OHLC and candlesticks and MACD and moving averages, volume, fib pivots, elliott wave, fucking tarot cards and horoscopes...WE ALL LOOK AT THE SAME SHIT.   

Looking hard this weekend at the most beaten-up Chinese ETFs. Once the tariffs are lifted (and it looks to be soon) the Chinese market is going to fucking explode.

Can someone PLEASE post the new private blog? Lost my free access after the recent updates. Without those arrays specifically I'm back to the drawing board but that's OK because my own system worked. I'll admit, though, that it worked better with the private blog numbers and arrays. 

[luckyplate]

Pls help to post Martin new private blog on 23 Feb .
My guess is he will say a breakup is possible now and to watch for 26 XXX level next. 

[trc4949]

we need a 13% drop in the next 4 trading days to make February a panic cycle month..... lets see if we get a mega drop going into March 1st

[luckyplate]

That would a meltdown. Quite unlikely .a pullback towards spx 2600 more likely .a meltdown would be another excellent time To load up and short the market. My personal analysis is a blow up top follow by a declined triangle pattern .

we need a 13% drop in the next 4 trading days to make February a panic cycle month..... lets see if we get a mega drop going into March 1st

[MA_talk]

we need a 13% drop in the next 4 trading days to make February a panic cycle month..... lets see if we get a mega drop going into March 1st

Don't you worry.  Armstrong will never comment on his (or rather AI's) mistakes, because his AI is PERFECT.

And nobody will remember or keep track of all the countless mistakes in the forecast, because human by default only remembers the most memorable events.  So we will all remember that Armstrong or his AI computer hits BIG time after time.

The only problem is how are we going to recover all the trading losses & lost opportunities from all the other mistakes.

And that is not a problem either, since there is always the survivor bias, meaning that the guys who are still around commenting survived through all the mistakes by their own excellent trading, or by luck (since by probabilities, there is always some percentage of people who will survive).

Due to the survivor bias, those who somehow don't "identify" the "gems of Armstrong's blog", simply will not be around anywhere on the internet, due to all the losses racked up, and possibly unable to pay anything.

I will repeat this again.  Scientific results are ALWAYS repeatable.  If not ALL people who perform the same experiments canNOT get the SAME (successful trading) results, then that thing is just baloney, and not true.

Therefore, if Armstrong's AI computer is that great, he should make an effort in making sure that all subscribers can get excellent trading results by issuing ACTUAL BUY & SELL.  That way, everything is repeatable and successful.

So why is he NOT doing that???  Just maybe he needs the subscribers' money, or maybe he or his AI computer simply canNOT trade successfully???

[dow_wizard]

Since we elected the weekly bullish reversal, there is a higher probability to move higher.

I do not have access to the Pro level post from Feb 22. But his Basic level post on Feb 23 was not very useful. He stated that Europeans were buying and Americans were selling. Socrates predicted this by electing 11 buy signals since the December low.

[1971Mus]

Socrates predicted this by electing 11 buy signals since the December low.

And yet, for I don't know for how long, this has been posted at the end of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ summary. " We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required."

I started a basic membership early last year just to give it a try. But I have become very frustrated and will probably cancel.



 

[sloanf]

The number of unimaginable idiots on this thread are staggering. No wonder they are the very audience of Marti the Charlatan.
How long is it going to take for you brainless parrots to finally realize there is no AI system, no supercomputer, no offices, no employees, no nothing. It's just a one man show. You are only bubbling about his supercomputer, AI, etc because he told you so. There is no proof of anything because MA didn't present any evidence whatsoever (just empty claims) because nothing of what he claims exists.

Now, because you are not able to think and analyze, I will do it for you once again. All famous hedge-funds and investment management firms like Renaissance Technologies, DE Shaw, etc. have been throwing literally $billions and hundreds of PhDs into IT systems, AI, etc. for years. Yet they still don't have anything close to a credible AI system, a supercomputer or whatever you call it and they still don't beat the market consistently.

And then you have:
1. Uneducated 70+ y.o. convicted felon
2. Lost all the money (both of his and his clients') on bad trades, cheated (stole the remaining), get caught, spent years in prison
3. Completely broke
3. Never knew how to code, literally illiterate, ignorant and delusional with enormous ego
4. Runs his very poorly made blog on free wordpress site

Who claims without any proof whatsoever that he has singlehandedly! wrote! the program code! that collects! (from where?) all the capital flows data! in real-time!  Even the IMF does not have all the information and collects it with a month+ lag. There is no such entity in the world that has the capital flows data in real-time.

And you idiots take every word from this pathetic charlatan no matter how ridiculous they are, worship him, waste years following him and keep buying his bullshit conferences, reports and subscriptions. And frankly you fully deserve it.

[MA_talk]

The number of unimaginable idiots on this thread are staggering. No wonder they are the very audience of Marti the Charlatan.
How long is it going to take for you brainless parrots to finally realize there is no AI system, no supercomputer, no offices, no employees, no nothing. It's just a one man show. You are only bubbling about his supercomputer, AI, etc because he told you so. There is no proof of anything because MA didn't present any evidence whatsoever (just empty claims) because nothing of what he claims exists.

Now, because you are not able to think and analyze, I will do it for you once again. All famous hedge-funds and investment management firms like Renaissance Technologies, DE Shaw, etc. have been throwing literally $billions and hundreds of PhDs into IT systems, AI, etc. for years. Yet they still don't have anything close to a credible AI system, a supercomputer or whatever you call it and they still don't beat the market consistently.

......

And you idiots take every word from this pathetic charlatan no matter how ridiculous they are, worship him, waste years following him and keep buying his bullshit conferences, reports and subscriptions. And frankly you fully deserve it.

Easy, sloanf, please.

Let me tell you about myself, and why I'm here posting.  I finished two bachelor degrees and two master degrees in engineering from the top-5 universities, all in 6 calendar years.  By any measurement, I'm at least top 0.5% in terms of IQ among the general population.

Yet, because of my conservative personality, and also my intimate knowledge of how Artificial Intelligence and how speech recognition is done, I fell for Martin Armstrong's claim that he has this AI computer that does all the forecast.

There are two ways of achieving AI, and Armstrong's way is a mixed system of "Expert System" and extremely crude form of pattern recognition.  Expert System for AI has been pronounced dead, and it will NEVER give you true AI.  I have learned much more advanced ways of doing pattern recognition at school back in 1990s also, and I can tell that Armstrong's pattern recognition is quite crude.

The other approach of achieving AI is through neural network, and I recognized that the true AI can be truly achieved, possibly decades from now, but maybe not in my lifetime.  However, when applied on limited scope of application, such as facial recognition, or OCR, etc, neural network approach has produced amazingly result TODAY.

And because of my advanced knowledge in AI, I fell for Armstrong's claim, when in fact, he most likely doesn't have sufficient computational power within his reach at TODAY's technology.

My conservative nature led me to easily pick up all of his outrageous claims of Europe crumbling, Great plagues, investment in Gold, etc.  (Some) Human has a survival instinct, and whenever anyone talks about calamities, they pick it up.

So it is possible for an very smart person to fall for scams.  I think probably EQ & personality rather than IQ may contribute to such.

And I fell for Armstrong for possibly 15 years, and honestly, I am NOT proud of it.  And he caused me countless lost opportunities and trading losses, simply because I believed that AI in the limited application of stock trading is possible.

And so, that is why I'm here posting.  To just impart some objective thinking and truth to the crowd, for I cannot stand this Charlatan to continue his scam.  I still try to keep an open mind, and give Armstrong a tiny possibility of he being actually true to what he has been claiming.  However, time after time, whenever I try scientifically and methodically to test his words, his words can NEVER stand up to the test.

As I have always said about scientific method and true science, it will never LIE to you.  If you can REPEAT it methodically, then it is TRUE.  Otherwise, it is BS.