Martin Armstrong Discussion

[rosousa]

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed?

Socrates has been available for many that have attended his WECs over the years. I know of an individual that has been receiving socrates reports since the time they were being faxed out decades ago

That's the thing, the person who messaged me had it for various products for whatever he wanted whenever he wanted while paying only for the basic service. Which reflects lack of security. As for this person who has been using Socrates for decades- does eh profit consistently? And how?

Socrates is just a software/financial instruments huge database. It´s up to you to filter the best resources define rules that fits your trading/investing goals and much more important, stick to them without emotional decisions overrules/violations.

I have with me soccer equipment that Cristiano Ronaldo used in one of his best exhibitions in last years, the same tools and could have him teaching me for 1 week how to play soccer and score amazing goals, that will make me a great soccer player in 1 week? in 1 year? in 5 years?!    

As a WEC attendee do you receive and examples or training on how to use the socrates system? Are you taught how to use the array, Directional changes panic cycles in combinations with the reversals, what about the energy and indicating ranges, pivot points technical levels, does anyone use these?
There is a guide and old posts but you really have to look for the information on the website to try and figure it all out, and as you can see here there is a lot of discussion but there is no real agreement on how it all works.

Just curious what the wec people get what we don´t, maybe with that it clears up a lot.

thanks

As WEC attendee you will receive some basic instructions and examples how to use Socrates. Most of the conference is dedicated to historical roundup of the markets and one of the most expensive history classes I ever attended.

People which aren´t already experts in technical analysis and have developed a good trading plan will not came out of the conference or after reading their materials with one solid plan.

"Everyone got a plan until they got punch in the face", if you didn't had a solid trading/investing plan before attending the Conference maybe you will get out of it with the Confidence you need to put some $ on the line and get your first punches in the face as wake up call.

Most of the things in Socrates are 100 years old technical analysis stuff, some of them with new fancy names. ARRAY´s on it´s "core" could be described as fancy representation of Cycles, Energy are just Momentum Oscillator. Indicative Ranges and Pivots were calculated and widely used by pit traders on NYSE, CME, CBOT long time before Socrates "born" and still been used as reference for support/resistance/reversals levels. What is unique on Socrates database is the amount of data it have on some key markets like metals which have +2000 years of data. As I said before, Socrates is mostly a huge database, is up to you to came out with a winning strategy to approach the markets. 

For my 1st impression, the members of this discussion group that had come to comment are discussion something they´ve no experience as never attended a Martin Armstrong Conference, aren´t Socrates subscribers. So just hearsay, gossip stuff.

On your defence, I must say if I ever come close to have the perfect trading system, I would not looking to sell it on a Conference/Report. I would open a Prop shop, hire and train traders to trade for me and make great $ for us like I did back on the years I played poker professional.  

Trading the financial markets are just like playing poker, it takes you 10 minutes to learn how to do it and learn all the rules, but it generally take long painful years to begin to Master it...  there´s no short-cuts to years of experience.

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[rosousa]

@rosousa  ECM Slack Groups ? I would be interested to join.

+1

2 of them are private groups but ECM-Traders slack group I can send invitations to anyone who wants to join, just send me your email in a pvt message and you will receive a Slack invitation to join ECM-Traders.

[bradfromearth]

The problem with Armstrong's stuff is lack of objectivity.

Odd comment considering the fact that it is his computer model making the calls and not him.

[bradfromearth]

So what I'd like to know is that if Armstrong is such an amazing computer guy, why was his system cracked by a no-namer from the internet?

Socrates was written for DOS in an assembly language. He likely knows very little about modern web development and we security. I have done some web development in the past and  I do not recall anyone ever worrying about people getting access to a development site.

[Kiwibird]

QUESTION: You are a legend in programming that you seem not to be aware of. The debate has been did your computer achieve self-consciousness?

ANSWER: No. It achieved self-awareness. It immediately knew the government was trying to take it to its secret computer lab in WTC building 7 that mysterious collapsed even though nothing struck the building. They were angry when they realized it had self-destructed. It was aware of its surroundings and it took all but 7 seconds to self-destruct overwriting all code 7 times and shifting around so they could never un-erase and put him back together again.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/

Sounds legit.

Armstrong talking at HackMiami in 2016 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLqmb8WhosU

Scroll down to Protagonists:  - ://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-story/
'..Tony Godin ..IT specialist..he was the programmer for Armstrongs Princeton Economic International and built the internal IT Security system. He programmed a network that reacted with self-destruction on any interference from outside. When some of the PEI Systems were under attack, he built honey traps and tracked the intruders back to certain IT-addresses in Langley, Virginia - where the CIA has headquarters..'

at 43mins (in German) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLCkRxrfo10
He tells the audience that Socrates was set up in tandem with other computers that 'ping' each other.  Once one is removed it realises there's a problem and self-destructs.
'..Tony is one of the best hackers i've ever seen - he built honey traps and lured them into a fake system..we watched what they did..'

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/10/12/the-secret-cycle
The S.E.C.’s Armstrong case file was lost when the September 11th terrorist attack obliterated its offices, in 7 World Trade Center.

[psp777]

I have found the last couple of days' discussions very informative on here. A huge thank you to all that have shared. A few take aways for me at this point in no particular order:

1. GMW useless for trading
2. Arrays confusing as crap for everyone as sometimes they are 'right' sometimes they are dead wrong and sometimes what was to happen doesn't and is called a cycle inversion. Therefore unreliable for trading. More of a confirmation tool or a heads-up ...something may happen tool
3. Most important information for trading is the reversals
4. You can trade against the reversals long or short, but if elected the trade should be in the direction of the reversal with a tight stop above or below the reversal depending on the trade direction.
5. Daily reversals are mostly just noise, but at times have offered support and resistance levels
5. Weekly and monthly levels are more important.
6. WECs are overpriced and are a repeat of his blog posts
7. Private reports are overpriced history texts with little information offered for trading.
8. Armstrong does cover both sides in blog posts as he states if this then that, but this may happen too.
9. No individual on this forum can prove consistent profitability using Socrates
10. Socrates pro level is expensive and to add several individual equities is costly.
11. Recent and past private blog posts have been outright wrong with regard to timing calling temp tops/ bottoms, etc...
12. Socrates missed the up move from Jan to April - how? That was a massive move.

The list goes on....But I'll stop there for now. I have more questions than answers.

I have a video of a German guy explaining the reversal system form the VOD WEC a few years ago. Nothing special, most has been discussed here, but I will try to locate it. I do remember audience members asking ridiculous questions and not having clue about trading - as it appeared. It was once posted on the Vimeo site but I believe has been removed. I must have it on some drive somewhere.

What is frustrating to me is the concept of buying and selling against the reversals. If we look at the spread in the DOW right now there is about a 1400 point gap between weekly bullish and bearish reversals. This equates to a between 4.5-5% move.

[whizzledog]

@rosousa  ECM Slack Groups ? I would be interested to join.

+1

2 of them are private groups but ECM-Traders slack group I can send invitations to anyone who wants to join, just send me your email in a pvt message and you will receive a Slack invitation to join ECM-Traders.

+1

[Alex4711]

[

I can send invitations to anyone who wants to join, just send me your email in a pvt message and you will receive a Slack invitation to join ECM-Traders.

I tried but your settings seems not to allow pvt messages from newbies like me. Could you change that? then I can pvt message you. Would be great, many thanks for your support here!

[etoimene]

OK, so I'll try one real time trade.
Oil just tested 60.84 bearish daily. Low was 60.80. Entered long with SL 60.75, TP just below next daily bullish at 62.12.

EDIT: Got stopped out.

[rosousa]

[

I can send invitations to anyone who wants to join, just send me your email in a pvt message and you will receive a Slack invitation to join ECM-Traders.

I tried but your settings seems not to allow pvt messages from newbies like me. Could you change that? then I can pvt message you. Would be great, many thanks for your support here!

There had been some years since I stop using this kind of web forums and I stop using it just because of all this limitations, link bans, etc. I received pvt messages from one of the members already, so the issue should be with your account. But I lack full knowledge on this Forum restrictions/rules. Sorry, can´t help you further, Slack invitations have to be sent to a email address. I could suggest you just create a alias email that will not waste your time checking in the future so will be no spam bots issue posting it on a public forum. 

[etoimene]

@rosousa, that other member is probably not a newbie.

You have to enable PM's from newbies in your forum profile (of course, if you wish to).

[rosousa]

I have found the last couple of days' discussions very informative on here. A huge thank you to all that have shared. A few take aways for me at this point in no particular order:

1. GMW useless for trading
2. Arrays confusing as crap for everyone as sometimes they are 'right' sometimes they are dead wrong and sometimes what was to happen doesn't and is called a cycle inversion. Therefore unreliable for trading. More of a confirmation tool or a heads-up ...something may happen tool
3. Most important information for trading is the reversals
4. You can trade against the reversals long or short, but if elected the trade should be in the direction of the reversal with a tight stop above or below the reversal depending on the trade direction.
5. Daily reversals are mostly just noise, but at times have offered support and resistance levels
5. Weekly and monthly levels are more important.
6. WECs are overpriced and are a repeat of his blog posts
7. Private reports are overpriced history texts with little information offered for trading.
8. Armstrong does cover both sides in blog posts as he states if this then that, but this may happen too.
9. No individual on this forum can prove consistent profitability using Socrates
10. Socrates pro level is expensive and to add several individual equities is costly.
11. Recent and past private blog posts have been outright wrong with regard to timing calling temp tops/ bottoms, etc...
12. Socrates missed the up move from Jan to April - how? That was a massive move.

The list goes on....But I'll stop there for now. I have more questions than answers.

I have a video of a German guy explaining the reversal system form the VOD WEC a few years ago. Nothing special, most has been discussed here, but I will try to locate it. I do remember audience members asking ridiculous questions and not having clue about trading - as it appeared. It was once posted on the Vimeo site but I believe has been removed. I must have it on some drive somewhere.

What is frustrating to me is the concept of buying and selling against the reversals. If we look at the spread in the DOW right now there is about a 1400 point gap between weekly bullish and bearish reversals. This equates to a between 4.5-5% move.

5) Daily reversals aren´t noise, they´re useful to trading intraday/short-time frame and it just represent what market do in short-term, markets don´t trend 70% of the time and as you come down on your time frame, more sideways/trend less is the market action. But you can make money on sideways market, your approach have just be completely the opposite of any trend following system/rules.

11) that isn´t 100% true. To be fair, he call it both ways, so he´s always right. For trading, his blog posts have negative EV (expected value) as it just confuses you and take you away the confidence to make trading decisions, you just freeze and do nothing after your 1st misstep on the market.

12) Socrates don´t miss trends as it have trend following approach to markets. If you refer to stock market bounce since 26th December´18. Socrates started electing Daily bullish reversals in the end of December and Weekly reversals in Jan´19 month end elected Bullish Reversals on US stock market indexes (DOW, NASDAQ, SP500,...)

The major take away you missing on your review is that trading isn´t about forecasting or being right or wrong. Trading is about formulating the possible scenarios and trade in the direction of the most likely scenario to happen. Trade with the odds in your side, will make you $ over time.

Most people have unrealistic expectations about trading systems/ forecasting systems. A trading approach that identify markets trending and enter on the direction of the trend only have to be right around 30% of the trades to make $. Socrates have a trend following approach to markets, so we should expect something between 30-50% winning trades depending on time frame you´re trading. Most people following Martin Armstrong have a misconception about that key statistic, they believe there´s GOD and higher than GOD itself there´s Martin Armstrong Socrates which can forecast markets with something near 80-100% hit rate. That don´t exist in financial markets, unless you´re able to travel throw time!

[etoimene]

Thank you, rosousa!  Very good post. I am aware of that but forget a lot of time. I'll keep it as a reminder.

The major take away you missing on your review is that trading isn´t about forecasting or being right or wrong. Trading is about formulating the possible scenarios and trade in the direction of the most likely scenario to happen. Trade with the odds in your side, will make you $ over time.

Most people have unrealistic expectations about trading systems/ forecasting systems. A trading approach that identify markets trending and enter on the direction of the trend only have to be right around 30% of the trades to make $. Socrates have a trend following approach to markets, so we should expect something between 30-50% winning trades depending on time frame you´re trading. Most people following Martin Armstrong have a misconception about that key statistic, they believe there´s GOD and higher than GOD itself there´s Martin Armstrong Socrates which can forecast markets with something near 80-100% hit rate. That don´t exist in financial markets, unless you´re able to travel throw time!

[rosousa]

dirxtyxxxdetxxx xxxxx  ne@gmxxxx.xxde

done, invitation sent! you could now ERASE your message so your email address don´t end up on spam bots email list.

[rosousa]

voilá! alexxxxxx4712@gmx.net

Thanks!

Alex

I activate newbies pvt messages. just pvt message me. Don´t post your email on a open public forum, it will be used/abused by spammers.

[etoimene]

Etoimene, I took a look at Crude Oil, as I got an alert on it just today. 60.38 is what I have as the number we need to open under in order to break to the downside and become resistance.

Thanks! I don't know the methodology you use to get to this number. I was trying using reversals intraday, since markets often bounce from them with amazing precision. Those that I choose were not right (obviously). 5920 - 5940 is the next cluster. There is no guarantee that it will hold, after that 58xx is very congested.

[psp777]

Regarding buying against the weekly reversal:

We have a DOW weekly reversal that was just touched. The idea is to go long off the level with a stop below it. I'm not trading this, but an interesting level to watch today and tomorrow.

[Alex4711]

Between May first and today the system did not predict any specific weekly direction for Nasdaq as no weekly reversals have been elected (also not any monthly, daily I am not following). This is exactly what is happening now. If reversals are elected tomorrow , I will post it here and then we can see the results one week after (where we should consider that reversals act similar  as support / resistance levels)
 

Ok finally a weekly bearish has been elected on Nasdaq. Bitcoin remained over the weekly bullish (also elected)  and below the Monthly Bullish. There are still some days till months end :-)

So lets summarize the week so far:

Friday      May 17th  Nasdaq Close: 7816.28. Election of the bearish Reversal
Thursday  May 23rd  we are trading currently around 7643

Summary so far we have 173 points. I am sure Traders would transform this movement in good cash  :-)



I am still in.

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/market-close-report-nasdaq-composite-index-closes-at-781628-down-8177-points-cm1151100

[MA_talk]

So what I'd like to know is that if Armstrong is such an amazing computer guy, why was his system cracked by a no-namer from the internet?

Socrates was written for DOS in an assembly language. He likely knows very little about modern web development and we security. I have done some web development in the past and  I do not recall anyone ever worrying about people getting access to a development site.

What is your source for saying that Socrates was written for DOS in an assembly language?

[MA_talk]

I was sent various PDFs in the up to the event, including the "Trade of the Century" document, at 280 pages long. Most of it is a look back at history as other posters have mentioned above. Rich in content if you like reading a load of fluffer content that hides two pages of actual analysis. Below is lifted from the very last page. Make of it what you will:

"The trade of the 21st Century will be the shift from Public to Private. However, each phase will come in stages pushing the next into motion. With the bulk of the analysts all bearish predicting 5,000 on the Dow, one must simply ask the question – so where is the Flight to Quality?

We can see that when the dollar was in trouble during the 1890s, the flight to quality was not to equities nor bonds. It was to the British pound. The roles are reversed. Europe is now in deep trouble and as such the flight to quality will be to the USA. As that capital comes in, the smart money will turn to equities. AT first, there will be a flight to short-term US Treasury paper just as Mellon said in April 1929. But when government’s survivability comes into question, then the capital will turn and flee from the bonds to the private sector. So, pay attention to also how the yield spread between corporate and governments will narrow. This will be another confirmation that we have a massive shift underway from Public to Private assets. Each sector will perform according to its place in the domino chain. The risk of the dollar rising first can have a negative impact upon commodities. Then when capital turns and fears the US government, then the dollar will crash and we will witness the rise in commodities including gold."

Thanks for the above, but obviously, anyone who has been recently reading Armstrong's blog, probably has read the same information above, if not the exact sentences multiple times already.

The problem is that attending WEC still doesn't get you ANY specific timing calls.  It's just very general, and extremely hard to make any money out of such.