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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 617548 times)
bikefront
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May 23, 2019, 05:07:41 PM
 #5381

Ended up taking the L on the euro short. Luckily not too bad, still made a lot today. I got confused because futures opens are different than US equity time opens and the large drop happened overnight. I looked at the retest but after the open, it had already tested that point for the first time, which then led to the drop. I had unknowingly traded the retest which is not safe. A cheap yet very good lesson.

Amazon opened a little under the breakout point, tested, then broke down. Didn't trade it because it wasn't the main breakout point, but these things can be seen every day. Amazon might open under the main line I was looking at but can't remember what it was right now, will see later for the open

Investabot, I had the same trouble with Armstrong too. I did end up trading that one but it is confusing... I understand where he comes from on some of the numbers though. He even mentioned a 17xxx number some time ago.
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psp777
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May 23, 2019, 08:43:40 PM
 #5382

Interesting close today on the DOW and the weekly reversal levels. We shall see what the end of week brings.
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May 23, 2019, 11:09:45 PM
 #5383

Interesting close today on the DOW and the weekly reversal levels. We shall see what the end of week brings.


Nice charts as always.

Lots of downside momentum, but sentiment getting pretty bearish right now. Always watch out for short covering before a big holiday.

Short interest is getting high (only 5% away from all time high, lol).



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-23/traders-are-shorting-the-s-p-500-at-a-rate-unseen-since-2015

still I'm expecting some choppy more to the downside momentum the coming weeks.
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May 23, 2019, 11:15:18 PM
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 #5384

Yes, that's right a holiday weekend. MACD is turning negative on the weekly...
bikefront
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May 24, 2019, 05:12:42 AM
 #5385

An open under 1813.5 on Amazon implies a move down to 1763.52, possibly even the same day, but most likely in less than a week. That particular price range is an area where price moves quickly, around 1-2 days at most to fill the range. I think it happens next week.
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May 24, 2019, 11:25:36 AM
 #5386

Yes, that's right a holiday weekend. MACD is turning negative on the weekly...


I think that the January-April rally was 60% Fed/central banks pivot and 40% China trade deal. The Fed pivot is still in place; so a 38.2% retracement of the rally would be "logical". Despite all the bad news, the markets are holding up pretty well, which says the retracement should be rather shallow, and not a 61.8%, a retest of the lows or something like that.
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May 24, 2019, 02:16:08 PM
 #5387

I think I'm going to quit trading for a while. I over leveraged on PG puts today and price went against me a few cents but I held and ended up making a huge profit. At this rate it'll only take a few consecutive losing trades to blow up though, so I'm going to rest easy for a while. Confidence is good but overconfidence is dangerous. I see so many great setups every single day that's basically free money, but its not possible to take advantage of them all so I end up psychologically manipulating myself into taking a big size to 'make up' for what I could have made...a very stupid mindset to bring to the trading table...
Alex4711
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May 24, 2019, 06:11:01 PM
 #5388

You could publish your setups here and we trade :-)
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May 24, 2019, 06:29:23 PM
 #5389

Yes, that's right a holiday weekend. MACD is turning negative on the weekly...
https://www.tradingview.com/x/O29CkugD/

yes, I will favour short-positions in next week(s). 2nd scenario is that we continue choppy between Weekly reversals, key turning week for markets looks like going to be week 10 June.

I Notice that you have Reversals numbers wrong. I had tweet the graphic of DOW30 with updated reversals, enjoy!  https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA
psp777
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May 24, 2019, 11:21:15 PM
 #5390

Yes, that's right a holiday weekend. MACD is turning negative on the weekly...


yes, I will favour short-positions in next week(s). 2nd scenario is that we continue choppy between Weekly reversals, key turning week for markets looks like going to be week 10 June.

I Notice that you have Reversals numbers wrong. I had tweet the graphic of DOW30 with updated reversals, enjoy!  https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA

The lower numbers are some older numbers mentioned in the private blog as key areas. Likely they have crept upwards at this point.
bikefront
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May 25, 2019, 01:59:21 AM
 #5391

You could publish your setups here and we trade :-)

If MU hits 36.65 and does not gap above it, then short it.
If /RTY hits 1527 and does not gap above it, short it.
If UAL hits 75.54 and does not gap below it, long it.
If IBM gaps under 131.77, wait till it hits that number as long as it does not gap back above, and short it.

All these examples should work as long as you trade the first touch. The IBM one should decline to 126.50 after the gap down as a swing trade but I only specialize intraday so who knows for sure. I also don't know how far price can move in those trades, as local supply and demand may change current exit targets. Also, if price gets really close then reverses, then safer not to trade it...these are just some examples for some trades.
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May 25, 2019, 06:19:23 AM
 #5392

Thanks :-) will take a look next week to the figures.
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May 26, 2019, 03:36:48 AM
Last edit: May 26, 2019, 03:49:54 AM by bradfromearth
 #5393

1. GMW useless for trading
6. WECs are overpriced and are a repeat of his blog posts
9. No individual on this forum can prove consistent profitability using Socrates
10. Socrates pro level is expensive and to add several individual equities is costly.
11. Recent and past private blog posts have been outright wrong with regard to timing calling temp tops/ bottoms, etc...
12. Socrates missed the up move from Jan to April - how? That was a massive move.
The list goes on....But I'll stop there for now. I have more questions than answers.

1. GMW useless for trading.  
Not really supposed to be. The name is appropriate. Global Market Watch..  It is helpful when looked at daily and in full.

6. WECs are overpriced and are a repeat of his blog posts
Partly they are networking events for professionals. you get all kinds there. The ones holding really important positions are never going to tell you what they do. They don't want anyone to know they are going because often they have PR to worry about and a guy who was in jail does not sound good to those who don't know any better.

9. No individual on this forum can prove consistent profitability using Socrates
I can absolutely but really do I have to. I don't want to dig all that shit up and rehash my analysis for people on the web. No offense, but you are asking for a lot of work. I will do this. Next time something comes up that I feel is all Socrates I will post the trade before and after and tell you the percentage of return. You can really lever with options. They hate sudden moves.

10. Socrates pro level is expensive and to add several individual equities is costly.
Yes but less costly than other stuff I have seen. What makes it expensive is that it is hard as hell to learn it. Armstrong is no help with his horrible writing skills. I have never even seen him make a correction on a typo. You just have to figure it out. No spell check either.  And Socrates....well think about it this way. HE wrote it. He taught it how to write and it shows.

11. Recent and past private blog posts have been outright wrong with regard to timing calling temp tops/ bottoms, etc...
Show me one. Just one. The move always has to qualify itself at every step.

12. Socrates missed the up move from Jan to April - how? That was a massive move.
Yes but is caught the first one when Trump won and took office. I made multiples AND he called the High accurately. That first one was not consolidation. The ones after that were and still are consolidation. Look at a weekly and monthly for the DOW. It is hard to miss. That first move was the big shift in the market.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/0qqJQP2O/
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May 26, 2019, 04:45:38 AM
 #5394

@bradfromearth Thanks for addressing some of the points. My list was a short summary of the last couple of weeks discussion on here. It seems you have lots to add to the discussion as well!

Regarding your chart, yes the consolidation is clear. It is frustrating for many that the range is so large.  The breakout, I believe will becoming after the ECM turning point in Jan 2020. The shift from Public to Private will rocket the markets ups quickly. It appears; however, that we may make a higher low into July. We will see.
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May 27, 2019, 09:38:49 AM
Last edit: May 27, 2019, 09:50:02 AM by s29
 #5395

nice analysis trulycoined.

I'm especially annoyed by his constant "economy is falling off a cliff" commentary while numbers say completely the opposite.

Marty from January 9th  Cheesy Cheesy Grin

Quote
The Dow Bounce into Early 2019
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, January 9, 2019

We can see that after we achieved the low on the 26th, the next week was the Directional Change and that should have given us a bounce, but not a change in trend, The next Directional Change was due the week if 01/21 so consolidation until then is possible. We have another Panic Cycle the week of 01/28.

The top line has now moved to agree with the Directional Change the week of 01/21. The volatility models are also picking up now for the week of 01/28 and this is followed by back-to-back Directional Changes in early Feb. Keep in mind that the major thrust in a correction is ALWAYS in the initial stage. Therefore, which we can still see a lower low, it is unlikely to be a major thrust down a second time.

The bounce after the first 1929 Panic low lasted 22 weeks. The Weekly Bullish Reversal stood at 329 but the rally only reached 29720. However, the Breakline was retested and exceeded slightly intraday but not on a closing basis.

Here the Breakline from the first high in 2018 rested at 22430.17. The market penetrated it intraday but could not close below it. This technical pattern also tends to confirm we do not have a major change in trend for here the market is testing the Breakline from above compared to below in a bounce following the 1929 Crash. Here the first Weekly Bullish stands at 25005.

January was also a Directional Change on the monthly level also confirming a bounce with the next two targets being March and May. We still could make a January low later in the month and then rally into March. So look at the week of 01/28.  If the market continues to consolidate into March, then this type or pattern would imply perhaps the final low in May with the reversal in trend at that time. This would also line up with the EU election cycle. The low on the 26th was 21712 and our primary target remains 21600, which is the Monthly Bearish we stated we should test at the WEC. Therefore, a rally even up to 25000 which fails to elect any Weekly Bullish, could still be followed by a lower low, but one that then holds the 21600 level on a closing basis.

Don't for get we have BREXIT in March and the the EU elections in May. The model is picking up both periods suggesting they may indeed be influential.

Martin Armstrong: wrong, wrong, wrong, very tendentious statements all the time. Misses the big move (december 2018) once again. Has an complete obsession about the (utterly boring) EU-elections coming up.

Hello Marty, we already have populist governments in Italy, Hungary, Poland, Austria, etc. The market already freaking knows that. Is it news that anti-EU parties are going to win a larger share? What a thing that his computer seems to sniff those things out. Of course, May could be a corrective month, but an economic and financial meltdown...



We can put another prediction on Marty's wrong list: the impact of the EU elections. Now, anti-EU parties gained a little, but less than expected and absolutely nothing revolutionary. Some Eurosceptic fractions actually lost seats. The pro-European Christen-Democrats and the pro-European Social-Democrats practically flipped seats with the pro-European Greens and pro-European Liberals. Such a shocker. EU markets at this moment are basicly flat. Such a surprise. I have absolutely no idea why Marty is building up so much a drama about a total non-event for months and months on end. He should write television soaps.
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May 28, 2019, 10:55:39 AM
Last edit: May 28, 2019, 12:41:23 PM by s29
 #5396

Additionally, some of the content on his blog is poorly cited or even outright bogus. Only the other week he posted an article that was later deleted explaining that Macron had passed a law making it illegal for French schools to teach Italian. I thought that was bizarre so went to find other sources. Alas I found nothing, and the post on MA's site was eventually deleted. Things like that make me question his credibility. If he is some sage that is reliant - in his own words - on his machine and not personal opinion, then how comes he writes about such irreverent BS at times? It is exactly what Barclay Lieb stated.

Armstrong is getting dilusional once again:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/euro-skeptics-score-big-will-brussels-reform/

Quote
Euro-Skeptics Score Big – Will Brussels Reform?
Blog/European Union
Posted May 27, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

Europe’s voters have spoken. The establishment parties have lost big time and the ant-EU parties have made major gains as have the Green parties.  This was the highest turnout ever in European elections. The ant-EU parties won in the UK, France, Italy, and even in the Netherlands. This is a very clear message for Brussels that Europe must reform if it is to survive. Will the EU Commission listen since they do not stand for election.

- European-wide anti-EU parties didn't have major gains; only in a few countries
- higher turnout favored pro-European parties, that's why polls were wrong
- in the Netherlands Party For Freedom of Geert Wilders lost all 4 seats, and the Eurosceptic Socialist Party lost both 2 seats, only the new Eurosceptic Forum For Democracy gained 3 seats. On balance, the total Dutch Eurospectic EU-seats halved from 6 to 3 seats. What is Marty talking about?
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May 28, 2019, 12:34:07 PM
 #5397

Outright lying, once again:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/fannie-freddie-to-go-public-in-2020/

Quote
The ECB moved to negative interest rates but that did not lower private interest rates.

Really? Does Armstrong even bother to look at the data, like European lending rates and European mortgage rates? They are at record lows.

MA_talk
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May 28, 2019, 05:51:58 PM
 #5398

Outright lying, once again:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/fannie-freddie-to-go-public-in-2020/

Quote
The ECB moved to negative interest rates but that did not lower private interest rates.

Really? Does Armstrong even bother to look at the data, like European lending rates and European mortgage rates? They are at record lows.



Thanks for the interest rate chart.  Don't you think that bond yields are extremely important to the markets in general?

And if you believe in the butterfly effects in the nonlinear systems, what do you think is the chance that Martin Armstrong can get everything else correct, when he cannot get an important piece of information correct?

If you ask me, the chance is ZERO to have everything else correct, but just one thing wrong.  For the complete nonlinear modelling of economics, every pieces of puzzles MUST all fit together.  If one piece of the puzzle is not fitting, everything else canNOT fit.


MA_talk
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May 28, 2019, 06:00:10 PM
 #5399

1. GMW useless for trading
6. WECs are overpriced and are a repeat of his blog posts
9. No individual on this forum can prove consistent profitability using Socrates
10. Socrates pro level is expensive and to add several individual equities is costly.
11. Recent and past private blog posts have been outright wrong with regard to timing calling temp tops/ bottoms, etc...
12. Socrates missed the up move from Jan to April - how? That was a massive move.
The list goes on....But I'll stop there for now. I have more questions than answers.

1. GMW useless for trading.  
Not really supposed to be. The name is appropriate. Global Market Watch..  It is helpful when looked at daily and in full.

6. WECs are overpriced and are a repeat of his blog posts
Partly they are networking events for professionals. you get all kinds there. The ones holding really important positions are never going to tell you what they do. They don't want anyone to know they are going because often they have PR to worry about and a guy who was in jail does not sound good to those who don't know any better.

9. No individual on this forum can prove consistent profitability using Socrates
I can absolutely but really do I have to. I don't want to dig all that shit up and rehash my analysis for people on the web. No offense, but you are asking for a lot of work. I will do this. Next time something comes up that I feel is all Socrates I will post the trade before and after and tell you the percentage of return. You can really lever with options. They hate sudden moves.

10. Socrates pro level is expensive and to add several individual equities is costly.
Yes but less costly than other stuff I have seen. What makes it expensive is that it is hard as hell to learn it. Armstrong is no help with his horrible writing skills. I have never even seen him make a correction on a typo. You just have to figure it out. No spell check either.  And Socrates....well think about it this way. HE wrote it. He taught it how to write and it shows.

11. Recent and past private blog posts have been outright wrong with regard to timing calling temp tops/ bottoms, etc...
Show me one. Just one. The move always has to qualify itself at every step.

12. Socrates missed the up move from Jan to April - how? That was a massive move.
Yes but is caught the first one when Trump won and took office. I made multiples AND he called the High accurately. That first one was not consolidation. The ones after that were and still are consolidation. Look at a weekly and monthly for the DOW. It is hard to miss. That first move was the big shift in the market.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/0qqJQP2O/

What's a lot of work?  Just post your trade going forward.  No one ask you to dig your personal trading history, since everyone can make perfect trades with hindsight looking back.

Don't you do at least one or two trades per month?

Please don't post a trade on some extremely volatile stock that goes everywhere up & down.  A good trade has small draw down, and a good profit.  On a volatile stock or especially stock options, you can easily lose 80% before gaining 400%.  That's just playing with math by leveraging.  That is not real trading.  That only takes 1 losing trade to wipe yourself out.
bikefront
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May 28, 2019, 06:44:46 PM
 #5400

Longed LOW a 92.10, currently at 92.05. Let's see if this knife can be caught...
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