Martin Armstrong Discussion

[MA_talk]

Most people have unrealistic expectations about trading systems/ forecasting systems. A trading approach that identify markets trending and enter on the direction of the trend only have to be right around 30% of the trades to make $. Socrates have a trend following approach to markets, so we should expect something between 30-50% winning trades depending on time frame you´re trading. Most people following Martin Armstrong have a misconception about that key statistic, they believe there´s GOD and higher than GOD itself there´s Martin Armstrong Socrates which can forecast markets with something near 80-100% hit rate. That don´t exist in financial markets, unless you´re able to travel throw time!

I totally agree with what you said above.  However, the problem with Armstrong is that he always tries to project how accurate his models & Socrates is.  How many times did he claim that his ECM model pick the very day of the event, throughout decades if not centuries?  And he does NOT tell you that all of his models are simply trend-following, and therefore looking BEHIND.  Yes, of course, he & Socrates always track closely the market.  But that is PAST information.  You canNOT profit anything from something that has already happened in the PAST.

So Armstrong, in a way, "over-promised" or rather more than likely lied outright about his models and Socrates, when in reality, you can use any TA to get the support/resistance, and the daily/weekly/monthly trends.

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[psp777]

One thing I am confused about as so many are, are the arrays. MA has always stated time is more important than price. If everyone is saying the same thing on this forum about confusion with regards to the arrays and cycle inversions and arrays not indicated important moments ... how can one pickup/ interpret the arrays for timing?
Most here seem to turn to the reversals, which of course, are price related (Secondary to the timing arrays).

[MA_talk]

QUESTION: You are a legend in programming that you seem not to be aware of. The debate has been did your computer achieve self-consciousness?

ANSWER: No. It achieved self-awareness. It immediately knew the government was trying to take it to its secret computer lab in WTC building 7 that mysterious collapsed even though nothing struck the building. They were angry when they realized it had self-destructed. It was aware of its surroundings and it took all but 7 seconds to self-destruct overwriting all code 7 times and shifting around so they could never un-erase and put him back together again.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/

Sounds legit.

Armstrong talking at HackMiami in 2016 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLqmb8WhosU

Scroll down to Protagonists:  - ://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-story/
'..Tony Godin ..IT specialist..he was the programmer for Armstrongs Princeton Economic International and built the internal IT Security system. He programmed a network that reacted with self-destruction on any interference from outside. When some of the PEI Systems were under attack, he built honey traps and tracked the intruders back to certain IT-addresses in Langley, Virginia - where the CIA has headquarters..'

at 43mins (in German) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLCkRxrfo10
He tells the audience that Socrates was set up in tandem with other computers that 'ping' each other.  Once one is removed it realises there's a problem and self-destructs.
'..Tony is one of the best hackers i've ever seen - he built honey traps and lured them into a fake system..we watched what they did..'

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/10/12/the-secret-cycle
The S.E.C.’s Armstrong case file was lost when the September 11th terrorist attack obliterated its offices, in 7 World Trade Center.

What is the reason that Armstrong wants to phrase and exaggerate things to such an extent?  He just wants to sound like he is like a God-programmer, above everyone else, and so everyone will be in awe and believe in him?

A close-loop system is pretty much a default in any decent security system.  Did ADT home security company claim that their system is self-aware?

[MA_talk]

One thing I am confused about as so many are, are the arrays. MA has always stated time is more important than price. If everyone is saying the same thing on this forum about confusion with regards to the arrays and cycle inversions and arrays not indicated important moments ... how can one pickup/ interpret the arrays for timing?
Most here seem to turn to the reversals, which of course, are price related (Secondary to the timing arrays).

Yes, Martin Armstrong has always stated time is more important than price (but yet, he canNOT get the time correctly).

However, I lost count on how many times I tried his timing arrays in all kinds of markets, and the success rate was not even more than 50%.

So in summary, I think it's total junk.  And of course, the randomness from the junk will surely give you some hits here and there, but can you average out all the trades to a gain from that?

The reason that I think everyone here eventually gravitates towards the reversal price levels is very simple.  All of those price levels approximate to the basic support/resistance levels, which can easily be picked up by any technical analysis tools, or just eye-ball it.  Support/resistances are REAL.  ALL traders in the market look at them.  They are entirely valid.  And that is the only reason that "Armstrong's" reversal levels kind of work.

However, you NEED to compare his system on reversals, side-by-side, with another system using similar TA that picks out the resistance/support.  Only then, you can judge the merit of it.

If you observe the blog post from Armstrong, quite often, he is taking out the decimal places of the prices.  That simply tells you one thing.  His code is NOT even using floating point (or real) numbers.  It's integer-based.  He just scales things up by 100 or 1000, so that his system can handle it.  That also means that his codes are really old.  So in a way, you are kind of relying on some codes that he has written probably from 30 years ago.  That gives me less trust.  But anyway, that's just a side point.

[psp777]

Regarding buying against the weekly reversal:

We have a DOW weekly reversal that was just touched. The idea is to go long off the level with a stop below it. I'm not trading this, but an interesting level to watch today and tomorrow.

So, you could argue that long trade off of the reversal is now invalid. Some may now short against the reversal with a stop above. Energy is pointing lower as well on the 2 hour chart.  Or you could simply wait and see if the weekly bearish is actually elected tomorrow at the close.

[investabot9]

I am a big Armstrong skeptic, I have been reading him almost daily for 6 years. I subscribed to the basic level of Socrates for $15/month until about 2 months ago when I decided that he was correct sometimes and totally wrong other times. Anybody can be right 20% of the time calling for a turning point. GMW is completely useless, I even emailed his support staff to say that it was and only the reversals and his commentary on the private blog were worth anything. Arrays are completely ambiguous. Unsurprisingly they never emailed me back.

However, I must say that Armstrong DID sort of call this most recent low. He missed the month but he got the number correct. He had a big reversal sitting at 21,600 in the DOW which he talked about often. Keep in mind that he also had numbers lower in the 18~ area. AND he has given numbers like this many times before with mixed results.

He wrote on the private blog on December 24th and pointed to it on January 3rd, saying "I wrote on the Private Blog on December 24th: “The likelihood of lower lows into the 26th are good. But this week remains as a Panic Cycle so we can then see a whipsaw back up into the end of the week. Primary support still lies at the 21600 and 21450 level followed by 20002."

So on December 25th at 6pm all the way until midnight the YM DOW mini contract went below 21600 down to a low of 21452.

As ambiguous as he is he technically did get the bottom in December. To anybody who could have divined this number being the correct one on this exact date given his multiple numbers and multiple turning points in time, my hat goes off to you. His system is very blurry for me though and I didn't make that trade.

[psp777]

I am a big Armstrong skeptic, I have been reading him almost daily for 6 years. I subscribed to the basic level of Socrates for $15/month until about 2 months ago when I decided that he was correct sometimes and totally wrong other times. Anybody can be right 20% of the time calling for a turning point. GMW is completely useless, I even emailed his support staff to say that it was and only the reversals and his commentary on the private blog were worth anything. Arrays are completely ambiguous. Unsurprisingly they never emailed me back.

However, I must say that Armstrong DID sort of call this most recent low. He missed the month but he got the number correct. He had a big reversal sitting at 21,600 in the DOW which he talked about often. Keep in mind that he also had numbers lower in the 18~ area. AND he has given numbers like this many times before with mixed results.

He wrote on the private blog on December 24th and pointed to it on January 3rd, saying "I wrote on the Private Blog on December 24th: “The likelihood of lower lows into the 26th are good. But this week remains as a Panic Cycle so we can then see a whipsaw back up into the end of the week. Primary support still lies at the 21600 and 21450 level followed by 20002."

So on December 25th at 6pm all the way until midnight the YM DOW mini contract went below 21600 down to a low of 21452.

As ambiguous as he is he technically did get the bottom in December. To anybody who could have divined this number being the correct one on this exact date given his multiple numbers and multiple turning points in time, my hat goes off to you. His system is very blurry for me though and I didn't make that trade.

You raise a good point. He calls some decent numbers that keeps me sticking around. The problem, for me, is that he always warms of a much lower number and a much higher number. Always saying we should test the other number so I don't take the trade. Same thing with the December low. He said we never hit 21,600 in the DOW and should test it, But we rocketed back up....keeps me guessing.

[psp777]

Interesting close today on the DOW and the weekly reversal levels. We shall see what the end of week brings.

[s29]

Interesting close today on the DOW and the weekly reversal levels. We shall see what the end of week brings.

Nice charts as always.

Lots of downside momentum, but sentiment getting pretty bearish right now. Always watch out for short covering before a big holiday.

Short interest is getting high (only 5% away from all time high, lol).



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-23/traders-are-shorting-the-s-p-500-at-a-rate-unseen-since-2015

still I'm expecting some choppy more to the downside momentum the coming weeks.

[psp777]

Yes, that's right a holiday weekend. MACD is turning negative on the weekly...

[s29]

Yes, that's right a holiday weekend. MACD is turning negative on the weekly...

I think that the January-April rally was 60% Fed/central banks pivot and 40% China trade deal. The Fed pivot is still in place; so a 38.2% retracement of the rally would be "logical". Despite all the bad news, the markets are holding up pretty well, which says the retracement should be rather shallow, and not a 61.8%, a retest of the lows or something like that.

[Alex4711]

You could publish your setups here and we trade :-)

[rosousa]

Yes, that's right a holiday weekend. MACD is turning negative on the weekly...
https://www.tradingview.com/x/O29CkugD/

yes, I will favour short-positions in next week(s). 2nd scenario is that we continue choppy between Weekly reversals, key turning week for markets looks like going to be week 10 June.

I Notice that you have Reversals numbers wrong. I had tweet the graphic of DOW30 with updated reversals, enjoy!  https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA

[psp777]

Yes, that's right a holiday weekend. MACD is turning negative on the weekly...

yes, I will favour short-positions in next week(s). 2nd scenario is that we continue choppy between Weekly reversals, key turning week for markets looks like going to be week 10 June.

I Notice that you have Reversals numbers wrong. I had tweet the graphic of DOW30 with updated reversals, enjoy!  https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA

The lower numbers are some older numbers mentioned in the private blog as key areas. Likely they have crept upwards at this point.

[Alex4711]

Thanks :-) will take a look next week to the figures.

[bradfromearth]

1. GMW useless for trading
6. WECs are overpriced and are a repeat of his blog posts
9. No individual on this forum can prove consistent profitability using Socrates
10. Socrates pro level is expensive and to add several individual equities is costly.
11. Recent and past private blog posts have been outright wrong with regard to timing calling temp tops/ bottoms, etc...
12. Socrates missed the up move from Jan to April - how? That was a massive move.
The list goes on....But I'll stop there for now. I have more questions than answers.

1. GMW useless for trading.  
Not really supposed to be. The name is appropriate. Global Market Watch..  It is helpful when looked at daily and in full.

6. WECs are overpriced and are a repeat of his blog posts
Partly they are networking events for professionals. you get all kinds there. The ones holding really important positions are never going to tell you what they do. They don't want anyone to know they are going because often they have PR to worry about and a guy who was in jail does not sound good to those who don't know any better.

9. No individual on this forum can prove consistent profitability using Socrates
I can absolutely but really do I have to. I don't want to dig all that shit up and rehash my analysis for people on the web. No offense, but you are asking for a lot of work. I will do this. Next time something comes up that I feel is all Socrates I will post the trade before and after and tell you the percentage of return. You can really lever with options. They hate sudden moves.

10. Socrates pro level is expensive and to add several individual equities is costly.
Yes but less costly than other stuff I have seen. What makes it expensive is that it is hard as hell to learn it. Armstrong is no help with his horrible writing skills. I have never even seen him make a correction on a typo. You just have to figure it out. No spell check either.  And Socrates....well think about it this way. HE wrote it. He taught it how to write and it shows.

11. Recent and past private blog posts have been outright wrong with regard to timing calling temp tops/ bottoms, etc...
Show me one. Just one. The move always has to qualify itself at every step.

12. Socrates missed the up move from Jan to April - how? That was a massive move.
Yes but is caught the first one when Trump won and took office. I made multiples AND he called the High accurately. That first one was not consolidation. The ones after that were and still are consolidation. Look at a weekly and monthly for the DOW. It is hard to miss. That first move was the big shift in the market.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/0qqJQP2O/

[psp777]

@bradfromearth Thanks for addressing some of the points. My list was a short summary of the last couple of weeks discussion on here. It seems you have lots to add to the discussion as well!

Regarding your chart, yes the consolidation is clear. It is frustrating for many that the range is so large.  The breakout, I believe will becoming after the ECM turning point in Jan 2020. The shift from Public to Private will rocket the markets ups quickly. It appears; however, that we may make a higher low into July. We will see.

[s29]

nice analysis trulycoined.

I'm especially annoyed by his constant "economy is falling off a cliff" commentary while numbers say completely the opposite.

Marty from January 9th  

The Dow Bounce into Early 2019
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, January 9, 2019

We can see that after we achieved the low on the 26th, the next week was the Directional Change and that should have given us a bounce, but not a change in trend, The next Directional Change was due the week if 01/21 so consolidation until then is possible. We have another Panic Cycle the week of 01/28.

The top line has now moved to agree with the Directional Change the week of 01/21. The volatility models are also picking up now for the week of 01/28 and this is followed by back-to-back Directional Changes in early Feb. Keep in mind that the major thrust in a correction is ALWAYS in the initial stage. Therefore, which we can still see a lower low, it is unlikely to be a major thrust down a second time.

The bounce after the first 1929 Panic low lasted 22 weeks. The Weekly Bullish Reversal stood at 329 but the rally only reached 29720. However, the Breakline was retested and exceeded slightly intraday but not on a closing basis.

Here the Breakline from the first high in 2018 rested at 22430.17. The market penetrated it intraday but could not close below it. This technical pattern also tends to confirm we do not have a major change in trend for here the market is testing the Breakline from above compared to below in a bounce following the 1929 Crash. Here the first Weekly Bullish stands at 25005.

January was also a Directional Change on the monthly level also confirming a bounce with the next two targets being March and May. We still could make a January low later in the month and then rally into March. So look at the week of 01/28.  If the market continues to consolidate into March, then this type or pattern would imply perhaps the final low in May with the reversal in trend at that time. This would also line up with the EU election cycle. The low on the 26th was 21712 and our primary target remains 21600, which is the Monthly Bearish we stated we should test at the WEC. Therefore, a rally even up to 25000 which fails to elect any Weekly Bullish, could still be followed by a lower low, but one that then holds the 21600 level on a closing basis.

Don't for get we have BREXIT in March and the the EU elections in May. The model is picking up both periods suggesting they may indeed be influential.

Martin Armstrong: wrong, wrong, wrong, very tendentious statements all the time. Misses the big move (december 2018) once again. Has an complete obsession about the (utterly boring) EU-elections coming up.

Hello Marty, we already have populist governments in Italy, Hungary, Poland, Austria, etc. The market already freaking knows that. Is it news that anti-EU parties are going to win a larger share? What a thing that his computer seems to sniff those things out. Of course, May could be a corrective month, but an economic and financial meltdown...

We can put another prediction on Marty's wrong list: the impact of the EU elections. Now, anti-EU parties gained a little, but less than expected and absolutely nothing revolutionary. Some Eurosceptic fractions actually lost seats. The pro-European Christen-Democrats and the pro-European Social-Democrats practically flipped seats with the pro-European Greens and pro-European Liberals. Such a shocker. EU markets at this moment are basicly flat. Such a surprise. I have absolutely no idea why Marty is building up so much a drama about a total non-event for months and months on end. He should write television soaps.

[s29]

Additionally, some of the content on his blog is poorly cited or even outright bogus. Only the other week he posted an article that was later deleted explaining that Macron had passed a law making it illegal for French schools to teach Italian. I thought that was bizarre so went to find other sources. Alas I found nothing, and the post on MA's site was eventually deleted. Things like that make me question his credibility. If he is some sage that is reliant - in his own words - on his machine and not personal opinion, then how comes he writes about such irreverent BS at times? It is exactly what Barclay Lieb stated.

Armstrong is getting dilusional once again:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/euro-skeptics-score-big-will-brussels-reform/

Euro-Skeptics Score Big – Will Brussels Reform?
Blog/European Union
Posted May 27, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

Europe’s voters have spoken. The establishment parties have lost big time and the ant-EU parties have made major gains as have the Green parties.  This was the highest turnout ever in European elections. The ant-EU parties won in the UK, France, Italy, and even in the Netherlands. This is a very clear message for Brussels that Europe must reform if it is to survive. Will the EU Commission listen since they do not stand for election.

- European-wide anti-EU parties didn't have major gains; only in a few countries
- higher turnout favored pro-European parties, that's why polls were wrong
- in the Netherlands Party For Freedom of Geert Wilders lost all 4 seats, and the Eurosceptic Socialist Party lost both 2 seats, only the new Eurosceptic Forum For Democracy gained 3 seats. On balance, the total Dutch Eurospectic EU-seats halved from 6 to 3 seats. What is Marty talking about?

[s29]

Outright lying, once again:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/fannie-freddie-to-go-public-in-2020/

The ECB moved to negative interest rates but that did not lower private interest rates.

Really? Does Armstrong even bother to look at the data, like European lending rates and European mortgage rates? They are at record lows.