Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Gumbi]

8

Socrates
From May 30th gold has elected 29 daily reversals of which 27 were Bullish (not included are today's bullish elections). 10 weekly elections all Bullish and 5 monthly elections all of which were bullish, I've recently subscribed but it seems the software gave a few clues to this move.

The plain fact based on numbers provided by Socrates is that Socrates missed the move in a spectacular way:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

No Weekly Bullish Reversals published ahead of time were elected during this move.

Yes you may count any number of Weekly Bullish Reversals elected in hindsight but as the quoted article points out, these cannot be traded because they are published exclusively after they should have been elected, only to be counted as success where in fact the system failed which is fraud.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

So in that case the weekly elected reversals were released
and shown as elected the very next day!?

[1714059575]

1714059575

[1714059575]

1714059575

[1714059575]

1714059575

[AnonymousCoder]

8

Socrates
From May 30th gold has elected 29 daily reversals of which 27 were Bullish (not included are today's bullish elections). 10 weekly elections all Bullish and 5 monthly elections all of which were bullish, I've recently subscribed but it seems the software gave a few clues to this move.

The plain fact based on numbers provided by Socrates is that Socrates missed the move in a spectacular way:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

No Weekly Bullish Reversals published ahead of time were elected during this move.

Yes you may count any number of Weekly Bullish Reversals elected in hindsight but as the quoted article points out, these cannot be traded because they are published exclusively after they should have been elected, only to be counted as success where in fact the system failed which is fraud.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

So in that case the weekly elected reversals were released
and shown as elected the very next day!

No. They were never released as such. They are falsely quoted only as totals, not even with their price numbers, in the reports, in hindsight, after the fact. Complete bullshit. No trading signals. Please read the article.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[stockpile]

When you say "after the fact" I'm confused. On Socrates presently listed as weekly elected are the 5 elected on the close of 6/21 , previous 5 elected for close of June 7th were on the table as well, I have it all notated as the elections happened.

[AnonymousCoder]

When you say "after the fact" I'm confused. On Socrates presently listed as weekly elected are the 5 elected on the close of 6/21 , previous 5 elected for close of June 7th were on the table as well, I have it all notated as the elections happened.

stockpile has been deceived as designed by the Socrates software!


Please read the article.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

You will find that on each Friday due date, the closing price was below the next available reversal so each time a due reversal was not elected. Seven weeks in a row. Failure. So whatever table you are looking at, that table is wrong for elected reversals in this time span because it reflects elections that never happened.

In other words, it is NOT possible that a Bullish Reversal with a number above closing price is elected. And it is a fraud if later, a week later, a claim is made that it was elected. For this to happen you would need to adjust the price of the reversal down in hindsight. It would be equally wrong if multiple different sources of reversals were available where the system could claim election from reversals from any of these sources (cherry-pick) in hindsight.

We cannot have it both ways - not elected and elected. How long does it take for the penny to drop? You need to inspect the system in real time, and you need to save snapshots every day to see what happened in the past. As unprofessional as Socrates is, is does not do that, and that is why you are confused now. You are confused because you are looking at a bad table that you cannot cross-check against authentic history.

To make this clear: I have the history. I have the reports, with date and closing price, that contain the reversal tables with the reversals that the system failed to elect.

The plain fact is that a Reversal System as applied by Martin Armstrong does not work.

It only appears to work by means of deception. And the deception in this case is elaborate as it is in most fraudulent schemes. It is like Dieselgate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal

The best Armstrong can do is to scrap the service and destroy all source code otherwise the lawyers will be going after him.

Socrates is a system of bad math and false claims, designed to fool people.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[Kiwibird]

Actually there are 2 more:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/arnold-xu-92624738/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/abbascarmody/

2 more;
https://www.linkedin.com/in/erwin-pletsch-ab911338
https://ae.linkedin.com/in/ashley-warren-05480480?trk=public_profile_browsemap_mini-profile_title

[ediface]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/cycles-einstein-galileo-geometry-of-time/

"I was probably about 12 years old and I fell out of a tree and over a cliff falling probably a couple of hundred feet. I was lucky and it was Fall so at the base of the cliff was a mountain of leaves. The leaves broke my fall but my teeth nearly came through my bottom lip. The wind was knocked out of me and my nose was bleeding."

...and when i came to I had a revelation! A vision! A picture in my head! A picture of this! This is what makes time travel possible: the flux capacitor!

He's starting to sound just like a kid who lived in my college dorm who always told the most outlandish stories. He always had to one-up whatever you said. It was fascinating to listen to someone be so creative and believe every word they said no matter how unrealistic the stories got.

It's sad because I've learned a lot from MA about investing, economics, politics, etc. And also because I still believe Socrates has a lot of value as a tool, but needs tons of work to be of value to individual investors. It appears he is unraveling though.

[trulycoined]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/cycles-einstein-galileo-geometry-of-time/

"I was probably about 12 years old and I fell out of a tree and over a cliff falling probably a couple of hundred feet. I was lucky and it was Fall so at the base of the cliff was a mountain of leaves. The leaves broke my fall but my teeth nearly came through my bottom lip. The wind was knocked out of me and my nose was bleeding."

...and when i came to I had a revelation! A vision! A picture in my head! A picture of this! This is what makes time travel possible: the flux capacitor!

He's starting to sound just like a kid who lived in my college dorm who always told the most outlandish stories. He always had to one-up whatever you said. It was fascinating to listen to someone be so creative and believe every word they said no matter how unrealistic the stories got.

It's sad because I've learned a lot from MA about investing, economics, politics, etc. And also because I still believe Socrates has a lot of value as a tool, but needs tons of work to be of value to individual investors. It appears he is unraveling though.

Yes I read that this morning and wondered if he might be on medication for something.

If we assume a 200ft drop with an average weight of 40KG for a 12 year old child, then he would have hit those leaves at around 124kmh.

You would likely need several hundred foot of leaves to cushion such a fall, where they fall loose and do not congeal into a convenient trampoline or jelly-like structure.

I think he meant to write:

"I was probably about 12 years old and I fell out of a tree and over a cliff falling probably a couple of hundred centimetres"

[MA_talk]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/cycles-einstein-galileo-geometry-of-time/

"I was probably about 12 years old and I fell out of a tree and over a cliff falling probably a couple of hundred feet. I was lucky and it was Fall so at the base of the cliff was a mountain of leaves. The leaves broke my fall but my teeth nearly came through my bottom lip. The wind was knocked out of me and my nose was bleeding."

...and when i came to I had a revelation! A vision! A picture in my head! A picture of this! This is what makes time travel possible: the flux capacitor!

He's starting to sound just like a kid who lived in my college dorm who always told the most outlandish stories. He always had to one-up whatever you said. It was fascinating to listen to someone be so creative and believe every word they said no matter how unrealistic the stories got.

It's sad because I've learned a lot from MA about investing, economics, politics, etc. And also because I still believe Socrates has a lot of value as a tool, but needs tons of work to be of value to individual investors. It appears he is unraveling though.

Yes I read that this morning and wondered if he might be on medication for something.

If we assume a 200ft drop with an average weight of 40KG for a 12 year old child, then he would have hit those leaves at around 124kmh.

You would likely need several hundred foot of leaves to cushion such a fall, where they fall loose and do not congeal into a convenient trampoline or jelly-like structure.

I think he meant to write:

"I was probably about 12 years old and I fell out of a tree and over a cliff falling probably a couple of hundred centimetres"

Next time, can anyone on this forum try to go to http://web.archive.org/, and archive Armstrong's page before he can make corrections to it?

I no longer even visit his blog regularly.

Martin Armstrong has already removed the flux capacitor and time travel sentence from that page.

I actually thought it was from ediface, but his account was corroborated by trulycoined.

[ediface]

I actually thought it was from ediface, but his account was corroborated by trulycoined.

Oh man, that's funny. The flux capacitor actually was from me because that's what went through my head while I was reading it because essentially he's making the claim that at 12 he observed one of great discoveries of science just as Galileo did (not incorrectly like Aristotle did) and he did it all on his own. I actually left off an important part of the quote because right before he starts the story he says:

"Before I had ever ready(sic) Einstein,.."

So I can understand why you thought it was from him. But the end quote for the article in my original post is right before the flux capacitor part.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/cycles-einstein-galileo-geometry-of-time/

"I was probably about 12 years old and I fell out of a tree and over a cliff falling probably a couple of hundred feet. I was lucky and it was Fall so at the base of the cliff was a mountain of leaves. The leaves broke my fall but my teeth nearly came through my bottom lip. The wind was knocked out of me and my nose was bleeding." <---- end of article quote here

...and when i came to I had a revelation! A vision! A picture in my head! A picture of this! This is what makes time travel possible: the flux capacitor!

[MA_talk]

I actually thought it was from ediface, but his account was corroborated by trulycoined.

Oh man, that's funny. The flux capacitor actually was from me because that's what went through my head while I was reading it because essentially he's making the claim that at 12 he observed one of great discoveries of science just as Galileo did (not incorrectly like Aristotle did) and he did it all on his own. I actually left off an important part of the quote because right before he starts the story he says:

"Before I had ever ready(sic) Einstein,.."

So I can understand why you thought it was from him. But the end quote for the article in my original post is right before the flux capacitor part.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/cycles-einstein-galileo-geometry-of-time/

"I was probably about 12 years old and I fell out of a tree and over a cliff falling probably a couple of hundred feet. I was lucky and it was Fall so at the base of the cliff was a mountain of leaves. The leaves broke my fall but my teeth nearly came through my bottom lip. The wind was knocked out of me and my nose was bleeding." <---- end of article quote here

...and when i came to I had a revelation! A vision! A picture in my head! A picture of this! This is what makes time travel possible: the flux capacitor!

Thanks for clarifying that.  Regardless, falling a couple of hundred feet (1 hundred feet would be about 10 story high) without breaking a bone is probably made-up, or just pure exaggeration.

Given what Armstrong said about the perpetual scooter machine, pretty much anything is possible from him.

And the UFO, too.  My guess is that UFO will come on an ECM date.

[AnonymousCoder]

So...anyone making a consistent profit with Socrates? If so, please post live or foretasted trades.

Sorry. No. I would not even try. Explored it, analyzed it. My assessment: Stay away from it. Not interested even in a discussion any more. Waste of time. As you write, simple technical analysis is much better. I refine my own skills, which is capital in a sense as well. Relying on this stupid Socrates system is worse than biting fingernails.

I need to build my own capital not waste money paying Martin Armstrong.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[unwashed]

I respect that you have more experience in TA and trading than myself, so I read Armstrong 5 years ago back in Oct 2014 forecasting:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/so-when-will-we-know/
'..we are looking at a rally into 2017-2018 with the Dow reaching the 25,000-28,000 level. That would be the minimum target objective...'
BANG ON

Did your charting back then come up with the same? (serious q - not being facetious, promise)

Private blog post Jan 1st 2018 ''..Our three primary targets were 18500, 23700, and then 36000-40000. We also mentioned there would be intermediate resistance at the 25000 and 28000 level..This 25,000-28,000 is the new barrier. Once we get through that area, then the next minimum target becomes 32,000...'

So this 32000 number was forecast way b4 the important Dec 2018 low that you used to get that same number.. so how did he do it?  What charts did he use? I am honestly interested to know..

Well, without looking at my own charts and checking some online ones, if you draw a trend line from the 2016 low to to next low and extent it you will see it intersect the 25k-28k area. He, like most follow the trend and project to the future, of coarse for gains. But I usually always look down first before making a decision. Also if you look at a chart from the year 1800  to present, there are some online and MA also posted one, the Dow is nothing but ascending, the great depression is nothing but a blimp on the chart which to me shows the Dow for many reason will go up over the long term. You probably could also judge the direction from those charts also. Just for perspective he also forecasted Gold $5000+ on 11/7/2009, it's on his blog. I'll look further into this on my own charts.

Here's the link to Gold $5000+
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/gold-5000-11-7-09.pdf

Here's my Chart and how Targets can be determined. IMO the Dow from 1/2018 to recent is a correction after a long uptrend. As you can see, the Dow is attempting to continue in the steeper red trend after breaking out of the top Yellow trendline and holding the top yellow channel resistance that is now support. Just an observation and thought.
https://imgur.com/a/HnIVrIk

Thanks for clarifying and showing detailed charts.  I understand that the closer you get to a date, the better you can chart a number.

What do your charts confirm for 2022 and 2024?  Can you give a forecast?

Yes he's forecast maximum $5000 on gold for many years.  I contrast that with others like Rickards and David H Hunter who say $10K gold.  Which is it? Time will tell.

To be honest, I never looked at TA as a time scale but you can make projections. First there has to be a trend and by extending the trendline or channel forward you can guesstimate where the security will be at a particular time in the future. ONLY IF it stays within the trendline and/or channel and no unexpected condition arises, ie correction, recession, war etc, then the process starts all over again. For example IF the Dow follows the red channel and stays the coarse the Dow could be at 46720 on 6/13/2024 but IF it follows above the yellow channel it will be at the same level on 6/3/2032. Another good example is the yellow channel from 2009 to 2019, this channel was created when the Dow made it first low after the 2009 bottom, 2011. So in 2011 IF the Dow continued it upward trend (which it did) you could see where it could be in 2017. Yes, it's hindsight but shows the projections. The trend is in force until the weight of the evidence says otherwise. I posted the same chart but with the two projections on it. https://imgur.com/a/ktgh5Oe

Just a side I personally would prefer the Dow not follow the red channel since the steeper the ascent the more likely a bubble. I would prefer it continue along the yellow channel, slow and steady and less risky. But the market does what it wants, lol.

Btw this is my own personal opinion and observations.

[Kiwibird]

To be honest, I never looked at TA as a time scale but you can make projections. First there has to be a trend and by extending the trendline or channel forward you can guesstimate where the security will be at a particular time in the future. ONLY IF it stays within the trendline and/or channel and no unexpected condition arises, ie correction, recession, war etc, then the process starts all over again. For example IF the Dow follows the red channel and stays the coarse the Dow could be at 46720 on 6/13/2024 but IF it follows above the yellow channel it will be at the same level on 6/3/2032. Another good example is the yellow channel from 2009 to 2019, this channel was created when the Dow made it first low after the 2009 bottom, 2011. So in 2011 IF the Dow continued it upward trend (which it did) you could see where it could be in 2017. Yes, it's hindsight but shows the projections. The trend is in force until the weight of the evidence says otherwise. I posted the same chart but with the two projections on it.

Just a side I personally would prefer the Dow not follow the red channel since the steeper the ascent the more likely a bubble. I would prefer it continue along the yellow channel, slow and steady and less risky. But the market does what it wants, lol.

Btw this is my own personal opinion and observations.

Interesting - thank you!

Armstrong has mentioned the case for a 'Channel Move' - is that definition where it moves up between the red lines (rookie q)?
He has always said 40ish for the DOW, and now the cycle has extended, he says probability of 60K for 2032.
Does the top of your yellow line touch 60K for 2032?

[unwashed]

To be honest, I never looked at TA as a time scale but you can make projections. First there has to be a trend and by extending the trendline or channel forward you can guesstimate where the security will be at a particular time in the future. ONLY IF it stays within the trendline and/or channel and no unexpected condition arises, ie correction, recession, war etc, then the process starts all over again. For example IF the Dow follows the red channel and stays the coarse the Dow could be at 46720 on 6/13/2024 but IF it follows above the yellow channel it will be at the same level on 6/3/2032. Another good example is the yellow channel from 2009 to 2019, this channel was created when the Dow made it first low after the 2009 bottom, 2011. So in 2011 IF the Dow continued it upward trend (which it did) you could see where it could be in 2017. Yes, it's hindsight but shows the projections. The trend is in force until the weight of the evidence says otherwise. I posted the same chart but with the two projections on it. https://imgur.com/a/ktgh5Oe

Just a side I personally would prefer the Dow not follow the red channel since the steeper the ascent the more likely a bubble. I would prefer it continue along the yellow channel, slow and steady and less risky. But the market does what it wants, lol.

Btw this is my own personal opinion and observations.

Interesting - thank you!

Armstrong has mentioned the case for a 'Channel Move' - is that definition where it moves up between the red lines (rookie q)?
He has always said 40ish for the DOW, and now the cycle has extended, he says probability of 60K for 2032.
Does the top of your yellow line touch 60K for 2032?

Yes, those are the channels MA talks about and what annoys me about him. These are not some new discovery or magical secret. There are ascending, descending and horizontal (support and resistance) Channels. From what I understand some traders make a living trading Horizontal Channels, Buy at support and sell at resistance and /or short resistance and buy back at support. I was never able to achieve that myself, different skillset. As to the 60k the yellow channel shows 2041 but the red shows 2027. But as I stated before the red steeper channel may not be sustained. But, I guess if it continues along that red channel, you could ride it up and when it breaks you can run for the exit.  , hopefully before everyone else. Unless the yellow channel has a blow off in 2032 that channel shows 2041 for 60k.

Just a point about charts, as was told to me, "Charts are a graphical representation of human behavior".       

[AnonymousCoder]

Another source confirms ECM / Socrates is useless


Martin A. Armstrong's incorrect forecasts
Marc Arkins
March 2nd 2019

https://www.quora.com/Martin-Armstrong-is-arguably-one-of-the-smartest-men-in-the-world-He-says-we-are-entering-a-period-of-global-cooling-rather-than-global-warming-which-will-be-much-worse-Do-you-believe-in-global-cooling/answer/Marc-Arkins


Conclusions:

In this article, a few reasonably clearly stated forecasts of Martin A. Armstrong
and the Economic Confidence Model (aka Socrates) have been verified using
publicly available data. All of them have proven to be incorrect. This shows
that the ECM cannot be used to predict future trends or events in a reliable
manner.

Considering these facts, I advice against paying for the claimed forecasting and
analysis services offered by Mr. Armstrong. I also suggest to seriously question
any claim made by him, fact-check the provided data and be aware of the
possibility that the vague writing style might stimulate ones confirmation bias.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[Alex-11]

So...anyone making a consistent profit with Socrates? If so, please post live or foretasted trades.

Sorry. No. I would not even try. Explored it, analyzed it.

If I would make profits from Socrates, why should I try to convince some extremely skeptical folks on some internet forum? What would be the benefit of trying this?
I would probably just shut up ,  do my thing and laugh about this forum.

[AnonymousCoder]

So...anyone making a consistent profit with Socrates? If so, please post live or foretasted trades.

Sorry. No. I would not even try. Explored it, analyzed it.

If I would make profits from Socrates, why should I try to convince some extremely skeptical folks on some internet forum? What would be the benefit of trying this?
I would probably just shut up, do my thing and laugh about this forum.

Following your logic, given the fact that only very few people reading the largest ever public internet forum about Martin Armstrong are still posting here, hundreds if not thousands of them who created the 607,334 counted reads must be profitable and laughing.

And, again following your logic, the fact that the majority of the posters in this forum is extremely skeptical is actually the proof of success of the Socrates system, so please go and buy Socrates subscriptions, reports and conference tickets to get rich really quick.

But wait a minute. This does not add up. Socrates itself does not follow this logic. If your logic did hold, then Socrates would need to make itself appear less successful than it actually is to make it more exclusive. The opposite is true as can be seen here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[blinder007]

Part 1.
Moron of the Month: Martin Armstrong

Convicted Ponzi scheme crook, failed commodities trader and forecasting charlatan MA continues his desperate  campaign to rewrite has past while pulling all kinds of stunts aimed at fooling low IQ sheep into thinking he has a clue as to what is going on in the economy and capital markets.

Aside from larger scale, more obvious tactics utilized by Armstrong to mislead  his clueless sheep with regards to his track record, after a good deal of investigation I have very good reason to believe Armstrong employs individuals to make extremely favorable posts about him online. Perhaps Armstrong is even making these posts himself.
Whatever the case may be, I’m quite certain these posts are fake because they are always the same referring to him as “amazing” and “brilliant” or the “best economic mind in the world” when the videos and articles for which these posts have been made do not even remotely come close to providing any basis for these accolades. On the contrary, any intelligent person would most likely view MA as a complete moron posing as an investment authority.
As a matter of fact, let’s not forget that Armstrong is so clueless that he was responsible for having generated “spectacular losses” to such an extent that his complete absence of any degree of honesty and morality led him to create a Ponzi scheme as a remedy for his massive losses.
For those who might not be familiar with MA, he was convicted of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, wire fraud, and commodities fraud, a felony arising out of Armstrong’s operation of Princeton Economics.
Prior to registering as an investment advisor, Armstrong had never worked for a Wall Street firm, nor did he graduate from college.
According to the government, MA sold interest-bearing notes to Japanese investors and, by mutual agreement, deposited the proceeds in managed accounts that his firm kept at Republic Bank in New York. He then used the incoming money to cover payments due to other, earlier investors, and also moved money out of their accounts and into accounts that he used to make speculative trades, which generated spectacular losses. To conceal this, he and Republic issued phony account statements to the Japanese investors.

[Alex-11]

....hundreds if not thousands of them who created the 607,334 counted reads must be profitable and laughing.
....the majority of the posters in this forum is extremely skeptical is actually the proof of success of the Socrates system....

you are trying to make a connection between the number of people reading the forum and the number of people who make profits with Socrates. This is just a wild speculation using statistics. There is no way you could know that it's really true. Even if only few people (or no one at all) in this forum is profitable from Socrates, there still may be Socrates customers out there who don't care about this forum.

If your logic did hold, then Socrates would need to make itself appear less successful ....

This is the same method.  Armstrongs marketing doesn't necessarily has anything to do how Socrates customers do in terms of profit.
My question was actually this:

If I would make profits from Socrates, why should I try to convince some extremely skeptical folks on some internet forum? What would be the benefit of trying this?

[AnonymousCoder]

...
My question was actually this:
 If I would make profits from Socrates, why should I try to convince some extremely skeptical folks on some internet forum? What would be the benefit of trying this?

My reply was ironic. Your question cannot be taken seriously because you have already answered it yourself.

 

Here you can read how profits are made with Socrates:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51490978#msg51490978

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain