Martin Armstrong Discussion

[olegrey]

You don't need to share your entire data cache, I'll take whatever you're willing to give

Sorry, I am finished with he whole subject. Everything has to come to an end somehow. I have wasted years of my life with this, and I have my own conclusions which are now more valuable to me than ever before. One is that the deeper you dig into the Armstrong data, the more confusing it gets.

The simple reason is that ALL data, be it reversals, forecast arrays, energy, pivots, whatever you call it, comes from the same time series. This is very primitive, and far from what Martin Armstrong claims about his computer which is that it correlates everything with everything. No way. That is a lie. Armstrong is really a simpleton and he does not have an understanding of scientific methods. He just uses certain words like a good salesman.

If I provided more data then I would just encourage people to do the same thing that Armstrong does, trying to derive more information from this single dimension, his data that was derived again only from a single time series, taking this ridiculous process even further to the next level. It would be crazy. There is only so much information in a single piece of data and re-processing it over and over through different filters once again will not make you any wiser.

In other words, there is no way that the history of a single time series of a stock market index can possibly predict that the FED does not cut interest rates enough so the market declines, then recovers, and then later Trump tweets that he will impose another 300 Billion of China tariffs, therefore driving the index lower once again. Someone who claims that this can be done is a liar, and we know who that is.

So, I hope that you appreciate that I am not sharing any more data. In order to put an end to this nonsense at least from my end because people will waste time trying to get something useful out of it for their advantage which I know is not possible.

And I am fairly confident that you are not going to get the data from anywhere else because Armstrong will do whatever it takes to avoid it because it would reveal what a scam Socrates is. Well as far as he can because as a programmer he is incompetent. Otherwise, being a complete outsider, I would not be allowed to develop the means to get all the data I want from that "system". I am gone.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

Ok

[1713479993]

1713479993

[1713479993]

1713479993

[unwashed]

You don't need to share your entire data cache, I'll take whatever you're willing to give

Sorry, I am finished with he whole subject. Everything has to come to an end somehow. I have wasted years of my life with this, and I have my own conclusions which are now more valuable to me than ever before. One is that the deeper you dig into the Armstrong data, the more confusing it gets.

The simple reason is that ALL data, be it reversals, forecast arrays, energy, pivots, whatever you call it, comes from the same time series. This is very primitive, and far from what Martin Armstrong claims about his computer which is that it correlates everything with everything. No way. That is a lie. Armstrong is really a simpleton and he does not have an understanding of scientific methods. He just uses certain words like a good salesman.

If I provided more data then I would just encourage people to do the same thing that Armstrong does, trying to derive more information from this single dimension, his data that was derived again only from a single time series, taking this ridiculous process even further to the next level. It would be crazy. There is only so much information in a single piece of data and re-processing it over and over through different filters once again will not make you any wiser.

In other words, there is no way that the history of a single time series of a stock market index can possibly predict that the FED does not cut interest rates enough so the market declines, then recovers, and then later Trump tweets that he will impose another 300 Billion of China tariffs, therefore driving the index lower once again. Someone who claims that this can be done is a liar, and we know who that is.

So, I hope that you appreciate that I am not sharing any more data. In order to put an end to this nonsense at least from my end because people will waste time trying to get something useful out of it for their advantage which I know is not possible.

And I am fairly confident that you are not going to get the data from anywhere else because Armstrong will do whatever it takes to avoid it because it would reveal what a scam Socrates is. Well as far as he can because as a programmer he is incompetent. Otherwise, being a complete outsider, I would not be allowed to develop the means to get all the data I want from that "system". I am gone.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

This I absolutely agree with, Trumps big mouth drove the market to 180 degree turn. I wanted to ask olegrey, how can he say that his trade is valid with market news, especial trump, coming out and scaring the crap out of the market. That would mean that the reversals knew in advance that trump would open his fat mouth, sorry can't buy that.

IMO, first, a winning trade is always good but today's action was luck of the draw and trump bailed out the shorts.

[olegrey]

You don't need to share your entire data cache, I'll take whatever you're willing to give

Sorry, I am finished with he whole subject. Everything has to come to an end somehow. I have wasted years of my life with this, and I have my own conclusions which are now more valuable to me than ever before. One is that the deeper you dig into the Armstrong data, the more confusing it gets.

The simple reason is that ALL data, be it reversals, forecast arrays, energy, pivots, whatever you call it, comes from the same time series. This is very primitive, and far from what Martin Armstrong claims about his computer which is that it correlates everything with everything. No way. That is a lie. Armstrong is really a simpleton and he does not have an understanding of scientific methods. He just uses certain words like a good salesman.

If I provided more data then I would just encourage people to do the same thing that Armstrong does, trying to derive more information from this single dimension, his data that was derived again only from a single time series, taking this ridiculous process even further to the next level. It would be crazy. There is only so much information in a single piece of data and re-processing it over and over through different filters once again will not make you any wiser.

In other words, there is no way that the history of a single time series of a stock market index can possibly predict that the FED does not cut interest rates enough so the market declines, then recovers, and then later Trump tweets that he will impose another 300 Billion of China tariffs, therefore driving the index lower once again. Someone who claims that this can be done is a liar, and we know who that is.

So, I hope that you appreciate that I am not sharing any more data. In order to put an end to this nonsense at least from my end because people will waste time trying to get something useful out of it for their advantage which I know is not possible.

And I am fairly confident that you are not going to get the data from anywhere else because Armstrong will do whatever it takes to avoid it because it would reveal what a scam Socrates is. Well as far as he can because as a programmer he is incompetent. Otherwise, being a complete outsider, I would not be allowed to develop the means to get all the data I want from that "system". I am gone.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

This I absolutely agree with, Trumps big mouth drove the market to 180 degree turn. I wanted to ask olegrey, how can he say that his trade is valid with market news, especial trump, coming out and scaring the crap out of the market. That would mean that the reversals knew in advance that trump would open his fat mouth, sorry can't buy that.

IMO, first, a winning trade is always good but today's action was luck of the draw and trump bailed out the shorts.

I'll take it lol, we'll see how the next elected reversal does

[olegrey]

I appreciate your putting up live trades for testing purposes with the criteria. In spite of the rally, the market still dropped. First day since election shows a profit, it seems. It is my understanding that the trade needs to be exited within 3 time units as long as it tests the next Reversal.

Yep, as long as another bearish reversal isn't elected my position will be sold within 3 days

[olegrey]

I'm going to go with the reversals posted it the dashboard and see how it goes

Please note that it's not the table near the Stochastics, Indicating Range or Energy indicator widgets. This has the same data then the one in the Reversals tab.
Look further down in the Analysis text.

there is says:
Daily/weekly  REVERSAL TABLE
MINOR | MAJOR
BULLISH | BEARISH | BULLISH | BEARISH

This is the one I meant.

I see it.  Thank you very much! very helpful

[Alex-11]

That would mean that the reversals knew in advance that trump would open his fat mouth, sorry can't buy that.

Sometimes the news is only the catalyst for a trend that is in motion anyways or it coincidentally  happens that news is published near reversal points. Another possibility is that some market participants have insider knowledge  and the market is moving ahead of some news.
Sometime though, In my experience news will just blow away support or resistance of reversals. But there is a tendency that this doesn't happen.

[unwashed]

That would mean that the reversals knew in advance that trump would open his fat mouth, sorry can't buy that.

Sometimes the news is only the catalyst for a trend that is in motion anyways or it coincidentally  happens that news is published near reversal points. Another possibility is that some market participants have insider knowledge  and the market is moving ahead of some news.
Sometime though, In my experience news will just blow away support or resistance of reversals. But there is a tendency that this doesn't happen.

Yes sometimes news is a catalyst and sometimes it's a dud. My point is, unless there was reversal in all instruments that reversed then the validity of the reversal is in question. I was long a FX trade yesterday and sold it for a profit cause it was turning and then trump comes out with a market moving tweet and the pair shoots up 10 more pips. Gold reversed also and was up 30 pts, Euro and Dollar reversed, so again unless there are reversal for all these and the many many others you really can't say the reversal worked. Coincidence yes, also known as luck. The first reversal fell on Fed day(sell the news) and the second on Tweet day (Trade war), not exactly a pure test IMO.

[Alex-11]

unless there are reversal for all these and the many many others you really can't say the reversal worked.

In the Arrays there it is a common situation that turning points allign in many markets.
With reversals I've also seem alignments, but I've not systematically investigated it.
However, if I trade only 1 instrument and the reversals works reliably, then why should care about other markets? Just to confirm a theory?  There are some mysteries about reversals (also for Armstrong himself), but IMO they can remain mysteries, as long as they don't bother my profit too much.

[olegrey]

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of 26522.3 with a closing of 26485.0, a 0.14% difference.  A new position was bought in DOG.  All previously elected reversal sell rules are reset to this election

[olegrey]

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of 26522.3 with a closing of 26485.0, a 0.14% difference.  A new position was bought in DOG.  All previously elected reversal sell rules are reset to this election

Weekly Bearish or Daily?

Daily

[DanB1]

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of 26522.3 with a closing of 26485.0, a 0.14% difference.  A new position was bought in DOG.  All previously elected reversal sell rules are reset to this election

Weekly Bearish or Daily?

Daily

Sorry, personally I can't do anything with this, as MA has told numerous times, dailies are noise. It's scraping instead of trading.
Sure you have made some money now, well done. It might look like Socrates really works but most of us here have tried trading dailies and it's like flipping a coin, as data on this blog has proven.

What I am interested in now is what MA thinks of Government Bonds (and Bond proxies).
MA has stated many times yields going up and that we've seen the low.  But so far new lows have been made almost every week for the last few months. And looking at the macro side (rate of change) we might go a lot lower as we get closer to a possible recession.
I was hesitating to go in bonds as I think MA had a good point there but luckily enough a friend and investor convinced me otherwise so I bought some bonds (various time levels) early in the year and it's now one of the better macro investments YTD (also because of the low volatility). And I do think we still have a long way to go regarding US yields (we might go negative as well)

Does anyone has any insight if MA's opinion has changed?
I do think that in some places like Turkey yields could blow up leaving the government with no other decision than delaying payments and/or extending durations (ie 10yr becomes 20yr/30yr).
I just don't see it happening in the US or Europe. So if we are talking about a huge rise in worldwide yield levels, as MA has been doing, you need the yields to go up on a broad basis.
Of course if we go lower, at some point negative yields are not sustainable and things will change but we do not need a supercomputer to predict that.

[olegrey]

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of 26522.3 with a closing of 26485.0, a 0.14% difference.  A new position was bought in DOG.  All previously elected reversal sell rules are reset to this election

Weekly Bearish or Daily?

Daily

Sorry, personally I can't do anything with this, as MA has told numerous times, dailies are noise. It's scraping instead of trading.
Sure you have made some money now, well done. It might look like Socrates really works but most of us here have tried trading dailies and it's like flipping a coin, as data on this blog has proven.

What I am interested in now is what MA thinks of Government Bonds (and Bond proxies).
MA has stated many times yields going up and that we've seen the low.  But so far new lows have been made almost every week for the last few months. And looking at the macro side (rate of change) we might go a lot lower as we get closer to a possible recession.
I was hesitating to go in bonds as I think MA had a good point there but luckily enough a friend and investor convinced me otherwise so I bought some bonds (various time levels) early in the year and it's now one of the better macro investments YTD (also because of the low volatility). And I do think we still have a long way to go regarding US yields (we might go negative as well)

Does anyone has any insight if MA's opinion has changed?
I do think that in some places like Turkey yields could blow up leaving the government with no other decision than delaying payments and/or extending durations (ie 10yr becomes 20yr/30yr).
I just don't see it happening in the US or Europe. So if we are talking about a huge rise in worldwide yield levels, as MA has been doing, you need the yields to go up on a broad basis.
Of course if we go lower, at some point negative yields are not sustainable and things will change but we do not need a supercomputer to predict that.

He did not say the dailies are noise.  He said dailies are more affected by noise than the other timeframes. 

[Alex-11]

as MA has told numerous times, dailies are noise.

I think he said that only because he thinks weekly and monthly is easier to trade.

[TrueColorsBby]

I'm not sure if I trust his trading system but I think he has a lot of interesting points regarding macro economics, politics, and history.

[olegrey]

Or your phatom reversals that were debunked by the reversals being in the dashboard as pointed out by alex.

Debunked? Hardly... There is so much inconsistency across the multiple portals on the Socrates website. Indeed reversals would appear/disappear in the Reversals section, the textual commentary, and the main dashboard.

I had emailed Socrates support about this NUMEROUS times and they had no explanation nor could they suggest which one was correct. Which is exactly the reason why historical study of reversals is not adequate. Indicative perhaps. But for useful analysis it has to be future tested... Which takes us back to the same point that's been highlighted consistently... Someone just needs to show the evidence!

I found this on the ask-socrates site

"Topic 3: Why do some new Reversals show up, then disappear?
• As you research a given market, you may have noticed there are times where a
Reversal point appears to be added to the list, only to be taken away – this is not a
bug or an error, this is what we refer to as “what if” or “dynamic” Reversals. This is
a different type of Reversal point that is more susceptible to change.
• For context, ”what if” or “dynamic” Reversals are generated by the model when the
system believes a new high or low price is in the making for a given market, but
they will change if the price it thought was was a high or low ends up not being the
actual high/low. For example if the following day the market continues the trend
and creates a new high or low, new Reversals will be generated using that new high
or low and the previous days Reversals will disappear.
• To avoid confusion, we are working on an update to list or identify these “what if”
or “dynamic” Reversals separately from more traditional Reversals.
• Also, it’s important to note that the number of data points loaded into the system
will change the number of Reversals that can show"

https://www.ask-socrates.com/Content/Files/SOCRATES%20Platform%20-%20Top%20Questions%20and%20Misconceptions%20v1.0%20(June%202019).pdf

[olegrey]

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of 26522.3 with a closing of 26485.0, a 0.14% difference.  A new position was bought in DOG.  All previously elected reversal sell rules are reset to this election

Weekly Bearish or Daily?

Daily

Sorry, personally I can't do anything with this, as MA has told numerous times, dailies are noise. It's scraping instead of trading.
Sure you have made some money now, well done. It might look like Socrates really works but most of us here have tried trading dailies and it's like flipping a coin, as data on this blog has proven.

What I am interested in now is what MA thinks of Government Bonds (and Bond proxies).
MA has stated many times yields going up and that we've seen the low.  But so far new lows have been made almost every week for the last few months. And looking at the macro side (rate of change) we might go a lot lower as we get closer to a possible recession.
I was hesitating to go in bonds as I think MA had a good point there but luckily enough a friend and investor convinced me otherwise so I bought some bonds (various time levels) early in the year and it's now one of the better macro investments YTD (also because of the low volatility). And I do think we still have a long way to go regarding US yields (we might go negative as well)

Does anyone has any insight if MA's opinion has changed?
I do think that in some places like Turkey yields could blow up leaving the government with no other decision than delaying payments and/or extending durations (ie 10yr becomes 20yr/30yr).
I just don't see it happening in the US or Europe. So if we are talking about a huge rise in worldwide yield levels, as MA has been doing, you need the yields to go up on a broad basis.
Of course if we go lower, at some point negative yields are not sustainable and things will change but we do not need a supercomputer to predict that.

He did not say the dailies are noise.  He said dailies are more affected by noise than the other timeframes.  

Here is what Armstrong actually says on the subject
"In order to use Reversal points to identify a true potential change in trend, it is best
to focus on Monthly Reversals – Daily and Weekly are typically noise for this purpose.

A correction on a Daily or Weekly basis may appear to be a change in trend, but
it ends up being a false move only to see price reverse once again."

https://www.ask-socrates.com/Content/Files/SOCRATES%20Platform%20-%20Top%20Questions%20and%20Misconceptions%20v1.0%20(June%202019).pdf

So daily reversals are just noise in terms of a change of trend, not just based on noise in general

[olegrey]

Sorry, personally I can't do anything with this, as MA has told numerous times, dailies are noise. It's scraping instead of trading.
Sure you have made some money now, well done. It might look like Socrates really works but most of us here have tried trading dailies and it's like flipping a coin, as data on this blog has proven.

Do you mind pointing me to the post of the data proving its like "flipping a coin"

[olegrey]

Please post your overlays

I don't see any way to attach photos on here, what are folks using for that?
Happy to post them if someone can provide an easy way to do it.

you can upload here and post the links
https://imgur.com/

Any luck on getting these posted.  Have you used Imgur.com like Alex11 suggested? I would very much like to see these overlays.

[olegrey]

Bought the low with all in 0 days, upped my account by 40%. Scored the double hit on high volume, excellent setup. It may go higher but had to beware of theta and gamma risk.

The Reversals are ok it seems so far, but the real test comes at market turns. Sample size still too small to tell with reliability yet.

Agreed, nice trade btw

[olegrey]

The DOW elected the bearish reversal at 25768.7 with a closing of 25717.7 a .1% difference.  I placed a position of DXD, a 2x inverse etf, because my DOG trade wasn't going through.  All previously elected sell rules are reset to this latest elected reversal