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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 619422 times)
Alex-11
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August 03, 2019, 07:27:14 PM
 #6201

as MA has told numerous times, dailies are noise.

I think he said that only because he thinks weekly and monthly is easier to trade.
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TrueColorsBby
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August 04, 2019, 06:17:42 AM
 #6202

I'm not sure if I trust his trading system but I think he has a lot of interesting points regarding macro economics, politics, and history.
olegrey
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August 05, 2019, 01:16:27 AM
 #6203


Or your phatom reversals that were debunked by the reversals being in the dashboard as pointed out by alex.


Debunked? Hardly... There is so much inconsistency across the multiple portals on the Socrates website. Indeed reversals would appear/disappear in the Reversals section, the textual commentary, and the main dashboard.

I had emailed Socrates support about this NUMEROUS times and they had no explanation nor could they suggest which one was correct. Which is exactly the reason why historical study of reversals is not adequate. Indicative perhaps. But for useful analysis it has to be future tested... Which takes us back to the same point that's been highlighted consistently... Someone just needs to show the evidence!


I found this on the ask-socrates site

"Topic 3: Why do some new Reversals show up, then disappear?
• As you research a given market, you may have noticed there are times where a
Reversal point appears to be added to the list, only to be taken away – this is not a
bug or an error, this is what we refer to as “what if” or “dynamic” Reversals. This is
a different type of Reversal point that is more susceptible to change.
• For context, ”what if” or “dynamic” Reversals are generated by the model when the
system believes a new high or low price is in the making for a given market, but
they will change if the price it thought was was a high or low ends up not being the
actual high/low. For example if the following day the market continues the trend
and creates a new high or low, new Reversals will be generated using that new high
or low and the previous days Reversals will disappear.
• To avoid confusion, we are working on an update to list or identify these “what if”
or “dynamic” Reversals separately from more traditional Reversals.
• Also, it’s important to note that the number of data points loaded into the system
will change the number of Reversals that can show"

https://www.ask-socrates.com/Content/Files/SOCRATES%20Platform%20-%20Top%20Questions%20and%20Misconceptions%20v1.0%20(June%202019).pdf
olegrey
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August 05, 2019, 01:20:16 AM
 #6204

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of 26522.3 with a closing of 26485.0, a 0.14% difference.  A new position was bought in DOG.  All previously elected reversal sell rules are reset to this election

Weekly Bearish or Daily?
Daily

Sorry, personally I can't do anything with this, as MA has told numerous times, dailies are noise. It's scraping instead of trading.
Sure you have made some money now, well done. It might look like Socrates really works but most of us here have tried trading dailies and it's like flipping a coin, as data on this blog has proven.

What I am interested in now is what MA thinks of Government Bonds (and Bond proxies).
MA has stated many times yields going up and that we've seen the low.  But so far new lows have been made almost every week for the last few months. And looking at the macro side (rate of change) we might go a lot lower as we get closer to a possible recession.
I was hesitating to go in bonds as I think MA had a good point there but luckily enough a friend and investor convinced me otherwise so I bought some bonds (various time levels) early in the year and it's now one of the better macro investments YTD (also because of the low volatility). And I do think we still have a long way to go regarding US yields (we might go negative as well)

Does anyone has any insight if MA's opinion has changed?
I do think that in some places like Turkey yields could blow up leaving the government with no other decision than delaying payments and/or extending durations (ie 10yr becomes 20yr/30yr).
I just don't see it happening in the US or Europe. So if we are talking about a huge rise in worldwide yield levels, as MA has been doing, you need the yields to go up on a broad basis.
Of course if we go lower, at some point negative yields are not sustainable and things will change but we do not need a supercomputer to predict that.

He did not say the dailies are noise.  He said dailies are more affected by noise than the other timeframes.  
Here is what Armstrong actually says on the subject
"In order to use Reversal points to identify a true potential change in trend, it is best
to focus on Monthly Reversals – Daily and Weekly are typically noise for this purpose.

A correction on a Daily or Weekly basis may appear to be a change in trend, but
it ends up being a false move only to see price reverse once again."

https://www.ask-socrates.com/Content/Files/SOCRATES%20Platform%20-%20Top%20Questions%20and%20Misconceptions%20v1.0%20(June%202019).pdf

So daily reversals are just noise in terms of a change of trend, not just based on noise in general
olegrey
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August 05, 2019, 03:49:41 PM
 #6205


Sorry, personally I can't do anything with this, as MA has told numerous times, dailies are noise. It's scraping instead of trading.
Sure you have made some money now, well done. It might look like Socrates really works but most of us here have tried trading dailies and it's like flipping a coin, as data on this blog has proven.

Do you mind pointing me to the post of the data proving its like "flipping a coin"
olegrey
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August 05, 2019, 03:54:22 PM
 #6206

Please post your overlays

I don't see any way to attach photos on here, what are folks using for that?
Happy to post them if someone can provide an easy way to do it.
you can upload here and post the links
https://imgur.com/

Any luck on getting these posted.  Have you used Imgur.com like Alex11 suggested? I would very much like to see these overlays.
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August 05, 2019, 05:18:08 PM
 #6207

Bought the low with all in 0 days, upped my account by 40%. Scored the double hit on high volume, excellent setup. It may go higher but had to beware of theta and gamma risk.

The Reversals are ok it seems so far, but the real test comes at market turns. Sample size still too small to tell with reliability yet.
olegrey
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August 05, 2019, 05:24:46 PM
Last edit: August 05, 2019, 06:10:16 PM by olegrey
 #6208

Bought the low with all in 0 days, upped my account by 40%. Scored the double hit on high volume, excellent setup. It may go higher but had to beware of theta and gamma risk.

The Reversals are ok it seems so far, but the real test comes at market turns. Sample size still too small to tell with reliability yet.
Agreed, nice trade btw
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August 05, 2019, 07:16:23 PM
 #6209

Went long near the low again, off by 8 points. Drawdown was brutal, but made 10 percent. Had I held, it could have been up double- but rules are rules. Had went all in on 0 days with just an hour till expiry. It was a triple hit though, far better than just a double hit. I did lose my whole account a long time ago doing that, but had little technical knowledge back then.

Any info on Weekly Bearish?
olegrey
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August 05, 2019, 09:43:23 PM
 #6210

The DOW elected the bearish reversal at 25768.7 with a closing of 25717.7 a .1% difference.  I placed a position of DXD, a 2x inverse etf, because my DOG trade wasn't going through.  All previously elected sell rules are reset to this latest elected reversal
olegrey
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August 05, 2019, 09:51:16 PM
 #6211

Went long near the low again, off by 8 points. Drawdown was brutal, but made 10 percent. Had I held, it could have been up double- but rules are rules. Had went all in on 0 days with just an hour till expiry. It was a triple hit though, far better than just a double hit. I did lose my whole account a long time ago doing that, but had little technical knowledge back then.

Any info on Weekly Bearish?
The last weekly bearish for the DOW was 26062.58 so it was not elected
olegrey
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August 05, 2019, 09:54:27 PM
Last edit: August 05, 2019, 11:06:03 PM by olegrey
 #6212


Went long near the low again, off by 8 points. Drawdown was brutal, but made 10 percent. Had I held, it could have been up double- but rules are rules. Had went all in on 0 days with just an hour till expiry. It was a triple hit though, far better than just a double hit. I did lose my whole account a long time ago doing that, but had little technical knowledge back then.

Any info on Weekly Bearish?
The last weekly bearish for the DOW was 26062.58 so it was not elected.  It is the same number this week as well
s29
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August 05, 2019, 10:17:46 PM
 #6213

So Armstrong has been wrong on rates many years. But he now has a genius solution: just calling it fake when it doesn't go your way! Smiley

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/real-world-v-fake-central-bank-interest-rates/

Quote
Real-World v Fake Central Bank Interest Rates
Blog/Interest Rates
Posted Aug 5, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Socrates has been forecast that the free market rates are rising but the official central bank rates are still bearish overseas and neutral domestically. Is this the divergence you are forecast with respect to interest rates rising in the real world against the fake central bank rates?

Thank you

See you in Orlando

BF

ANSWER: Yes. I have also warned that the Fed is entertaining the prospect to PEGGING long-term government rates rather than engaging in Quantitative Easing. I have gone into this in detail in the new book about to be released soon. The Fed realizes that Quantitative Easing has failed. They are lobbying behind the curtain to try to get Congress on the side with sharing the burden to support the economy. However, that effort is not being received very well.

You must understand that there is a HUGE gap between real rates and fake rates unfolding. Call your bank and ask them what they will give you for a CD for say even 1 year. You will be lucky to get 2.5%. A car loan will be 4.71% to 5.26% on average. Banks are nearly doubling their money and this is the real-world compared to the fake rates offered by central banks. This is the HUGE gap between real-world and central banks which is expanding. So a forecast of lower rates ONLY applies to the fake rate – not the real-world rates.

Our forecast shows that real-world rates will rise, but the fake central bank rates will remain the same to lower ONLY because the central banks are becoming nearly exclusive buyers of government debt with the exception of pension funds which MUST buy government debt by law.

1) Marty always brags about how he's advicing all kind of central banks on policies. How did he not seen this coming?
2) But he's wrong again in his new analysis; because ECB and the Fed haven't been QE'ing for a while, and still bond yields are trending lower. At this moment the free market is pushing bond yields down.
3) He's wrong once again, because High Yield and European mortgage rates (what Marty calls "real rates") are trending lower in tandem with the "fake rates".

Marty, please stop BS'ing and say you were wrong on yields.
DanB1
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August 06, 2019, 08:02:16 AM
 #6214

So Armstrong has been wrong on rates many years. But he now has a genius solution: just calling it fake when it doesn't go your way! Smiley

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/real-world-v-fake-central-bank-interest-rates/

Quote
Real-World v Fake Central Bank Interest Rates
Blog/Interest Rates
Posted Aug 5, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Socrates has been forecast that the free market rates are rising but the official central bank rates are still bearish overseas and neutral domestically. Is this the divergence you are forecast with respect to interest rates rising in the real world against the fake central bank rates?

Thank you

See you in Orlando

BF

ANSWER: Yes. I have also warned that the Fed is entertaining the prospect to PEGGING long-term government rates rather than engaging in Quantitative Easing. I have gone into this in detail in the new book about to be released soon. The Fed realizes that Quantitative Easing has failed. They are lobbying behind the curtain to try to get Congress on the side with sharing the burden to support the economy. However, that effort is not being received very well.

You must understand that there is a HUGE gap between real rates and fake rates unfolding. Call your bank and ask them what they will give you for a CD for say even 1 year. You will be lucky to get 2.5%. A car loan will be 4.71% to 5.26% on average. Banks are nearly doubling their money and this is the real-world compared to the fake rates offered by central banks. This is the HUGE gap between real-world and central banks which is expanding. So a forecast of lower rates ONLY applies to the fake rate – not the real-world rates.

Our forecast shows that real-world rates will rise, but the fake central bank rates will remain the same to lower ONLY because the central banks are becoming nearly exclusive buyers of government debt with the exception of pension funds which MUST buy government debt by law.

1) Marty always brags about how he's advicing all kind of central banks on policies. How did he not seen this coming?
2) But he's wrong again in his new analysis; because ECB and the Fed haven't been QE'ing for a while, and still bond yields are trending lower. At this moment the free market is pushing bond yields down.
3) He's wrong once again, because High Yield and European mortgage rates (what Marty calls "real rates") are trending lower in tandem with the "fake rates".

Marty, please stop BS'ing and say you were wrong on yields.


True, he was very wrong there. I made most my money in US Bonds and Bond proxies this year, longer and shorter duration. Works even better when you can get some leverage.
I expect to FED to lower their rates sharply in September (if economic numbers keep deteriorating).

But still I do think MA has a point that at some point money will leave bonds for stocks as it's higher yielding and gov. bonds might lose their safe haven status.
So with a lot of things, MA might have a very good point but is wrong on timing.

Just like July was a panic cycle in the DOW, that must have been August.
I probably keep on following MA, just like I follow many Macro guys but take his 'advice' with a tablespoon of salt. (and will definitely not spend a dime on it:)
unwashed
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August 06, 2019, 12:16:46 PM
Last edit: August 06, 2019, 12:33:58 PM by unwashed
 #6215

So Armstrong has been wrong on rates many years. But he now has a genius solution: just calling it fake when it doesn't go your way! Smiley

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/real-world-v-fake-central-bank-interest-rates/

Quote
Real-World v Fake Central Bank Interest Rates
Blog/Interest Rates
Posted Aug 5, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Socrates has been forecast that the free market rates are rising but the official central bank rates are still bearish overseas and neutral domestically. Is this the divergence you are forecast with respect to interest rates rising in the real world against the fake central bank rates?

Thank you

See you in Orlando

BF

ANSWER: Yes. I have also warned that the Fed is entertaining the prospect to PEGGING long-term government rates rather than engaging in Quantitative Easing. I have gone into this in detail in the new book about to be released soon. The Fed realizes that Quantitative Easing has failed. They are lobbying behind the curtain to try to get Congress on the side with sharing the burden to support the economy. However, that effort is not being received very well.

You must understand that there is a HUGE gap between real rates and fake rates unfolding. Call your bank and ask them what they will give you for a CD for say even 1 year. You will be lucky to get 2.5%. A car loan will be 4.71% to 5.26% on average. Banks are nearly doubling their money and this is the real-world compared to the fake rates offered by central banks. This is the HUGE gap between real-world and central banks which is expanding. So a forecast of lower rates ONLY applies to the fake rate – not the real-world rates.

Our forecast shows that real-world rates will rise, but the fake central bank rates will remain the same to lower ONLY because the central banks are becoming nearly exclusive buyers of government debt with the exception of pension funds which MUST buy government debt by law.

1) Marty always brags about how he's advicing all kind of central banks on policies. How did he not seen this coming?
2) But he's wrong again in his new analysis; because ECB and the Fed haven't been QE'ing for a while, and still bond yields are trending lower. At this moment the free market is pushing bond yields down.
3) He's wrong once again, because High Yield and European mortgage rates (what Marty calls "real rates") are trending lower in tandem with the "fake rates".

Marty, please stop BS'ing and say you were wrong on yields.


True, he was very wrong there. I made most my money in US Bonds and Bond proxies this year, longer and shorter duration. Works even better when you can get some leverage.
I expect to FED to lower their rates sharply in September (if economic numbers keep deteriorating).

But still I do think MA has a point that at some point money will leave bonds for stocks as it's higher yielding and gov. bonds might lose their safe haven status.
So with a lot of things, MA might have a very good point but is wrong on timing.

Just like July was a panic cycle in the DOW, that must have been August.
I probably keep on following MA, just like I follow many Macro guys but take his 'advice' with a tablespoon of salt. (and will definitely not spend a dime on it:)
MA has been saying this for 10 years, as far back as I could remember which is 2009. To be honest anyone looking at a chart could say the same thing. Gold bugs were saying this in 2009/10 and how gold would benefit from the capital moving to gold and stocks. So not very insightful.

Also the great economist and noble prize winner Milton Friedman says rates should actually be 0% based on real rates calculated by Govt deficit, something along those lines. Friedman actually advised other Govt, 3 of which were US, India and China. Yea, he actually went to China and I believe his influence put China on its coarse. Over the weekend I decided to give myself a refresher on Friedman and came across a video from May 2019 and it was a historian giving a lecture to Central bankers and Bankers and the subject was about Friedman and his life and economic research. So obviously Central Bankers are using Friedman advise. Have to say reviewing all this stuff has changed my views on many thing, 1 is the misinformation about Keynes being a big influence is incorrect since Friedman's views and advice has been around since the great depression. If anyone is interested spend a weekend on youtube and review his work, it's very concert info to know about markets and the economies.  

One last observation, He was interview in 2000 and debunked the Business cycle at the same time acknowledging there were people out there saying there was, hmmm. Should you listen to a noble prize winner who wrote 4 or 5 books, researched economies from history, advised gov't and his theories proven?  
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August 07, 2019, 12:40:20 PM
 #6216

Gold elected the "important" monthly reversal in June. We closed 1,392.08. The Bullish monthly was 1,362.50. (~2,2% above the reversal).
So according to the 1% rule we need to test the 1,362.5 reversal within 3 time frames (3 months, so July, August or September).

At the moment gold is testing 1,500 so it would need to come down ~9%.
I'm hoping it will test 1,362.5 as I would like to buy more but I think it's not reachable.
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August 07, 2019, 03:25:33 PM
Last edit: August 07, 2019, 04:36:28 PM by MTL4
 #6217

Any luck on getting these posted.  Have you used Imgur.com like Alex11 suggested? I would very much like to see these overlays.

I finally got around to adding the overlays, work has been kicking my butt lately.

Here's the DOW long term overlays:
https://i.imgur.com/jLABV9J.png
https://i.imgur.com/JaRLuxJ.png

There was some correlation there on the first as you can see the array shows some indication of a rollover prior to the crash in 2007 but the second doesn't indicate much.

Here's the oil long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/oHmMGj1.png

There is a directional change near the bottom in 1999 but not much of an indication on the run up you would have seen between 1999-2008

Here's the UK pound long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/JockfTy.png

Here's the EU Euro long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/pTHY4Qs.png

Here's the Gold/Silver long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/q2Vji7N.png

Here's the Gold long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/MhPgq7i.png

Here's the Silver long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/SZQ4AqF.png

Here's the Copper long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/h1gx0Nc.png

I have more but this should give folks enough to chat about for a bit anyway.  Some arrays clearly appear to have some correlation to major tops/bottoms but they are extremely hard to read with any consistency.  Best you could say would be it might give you some time periods to look at but I would definitely want to be using TA to actually pinpoint where I was in the market price action.
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August 07, 2019, 04:54:01 PM
 #6218

I notice this just came out but it would be interesting to see how that correlates to what I have in my system.

Quote
There is something much bigger going on behind the curtain. I gave the targets and the channel objective on the Pro version of the Private Blog.

Does anyone have access to this right now?  Can you post it up?
AnonymousCoder
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August 07, 2019, 08:03:13 PM
Last edit: December 08, 2019, 10:14:25 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #6219

Gold elected the "important" monthly reversal in June. We closed 1,392.08. The Bullish monthly was 1,362.50. (~2,2% above the reversal).
So according to the 1% rule we need to test the 1,362.5 reversal within 3 time frames (3 months, so July, August or September).

At the moment gold is testing 1,500 so it would need to come down ~9%.
I'm hoping it will test 1,362.5 as I would like to buy more but I think it's not reachable.

If that is what it is then we need to short Gold now. Let's manipulate the market to make it happen!

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for a reason.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.
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August 07, 2019, 08:18:19 PM
 #6220

I wonder how much of the overlays are hindsight. They change as one moves forward in time, not just relatively, but it also adds cycle types and peaks as you go. Plus, those are going back into the 90s so yeah. All this Armstrong stuff is just a waste of time. Better to study up and put into practice what you know, or at least subscribe to someone who can actually be coherent.

Up around 150% on the account since the volatility began last week with lots of intraday trades. Mostly longs in catching falling knives. Missed some really good trades though and could have been up much more, as most trades closed too early, but it what it is. Work has gotten in the way at times, and high leverage causes fear. Double+ hits trades are incredibly strong.
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