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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 619989 times)
Alex-11
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August 07, 2019, 08:45:42 PM
 #6221

I wonder how much of the overlays are hindsight. They change as one moves forward in time,

not on the monthly arrays. THey are stable as to when to expect a turning point or directional change. I've checked the Gold arrays for the last 6 month.

Up around 150% on the account ...... Missed some really good trades though

up 150% and complaining?  Grin

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olegrey
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August 07, 2019, 09:20:29 PM
 #6222

Gold elected the "important" monthly reversal in June. We closed 1,392.08. The Bullish monthly was 1,362.50. (~2,2% above the reversal).
So according to the 1% rule we need to test the 1,362.5 reversal within 3 time frames (3 months, so July, August or September).

At the moment gold is testing 1,500 so it would need to come down ~9%.
I'm hoping it will test 1,362.5 as I would like to buy more but I think it's not reachable.
Where are you getting your closing number for gold? I'm getting 1409.51 as the closing for June.

The 1% rule is odd in my experience.  In my "trading rules" I put that if a over 1% rule elected reversal is true during its first time unit, then treat it as a less than 1% rule reversal.
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August 07, 2019, 11:23:57 PM
 #6223

I wonder how much of the overlays are hindsight. They change as one moves forward in time,

not on the monthly arrays. THey are stable as to when to expect a turning point or directional change. I've checked the Gold arrays for the last 6 month.

Up around 150% on the account ...... Missed some really good trades though

up 150% and complaining?  Grin



We would need an objective system for arrays, because it seems to me it is a case of 'sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't'. I do not know how this would be done, as it ended up not working for me.

Up a lot, yes, but one must constantly compete against themselves, not against others. There were times during the green everyday markets when everyone else was making money and I was stuck on the sidelines. This volatility is my time to make money, I've been waiting for these market conditions for a while. I've always had the mindset that if there were some of those trading legends who started with nothing and ended up big, surely they would be able to make sense of the market. I would only have to capture a portion of what they saw in order to have some success. There has got to be some kind of pattern or some such thing in the market that represents quantifiable human behavior. I can't say I've found it, but perhaps some small portion of it. But fear keeps me out of a perfectly good trade, as well as exiting early. It is always a learning process.
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August 08, 2019, 02:14:55 AM
 #6224

Well done bikefront!

Good that you took advantage of this market volatility, presumably using your own set of TA rules and tools.

A shame, socrates couldn't do the same the past 3 days although there were some private blogs published on the matter,  but the usual macro views and support lines. Not tradeable as usual...

One will always be a student of the market (no matter how good you think you are or your system is) and that's why the market is the market. Even Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio made mistakes to put things into context.
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August 08, 2019, 04:30:56 AM
 #6225

Gold elected the "important" monthly reversal in June. We closed 1,392.08. The Bullish monthly was 1,362.50. (~2,2% above the reversal).
So according to the 1% rule we need to test the 1,362.5 reversal within 3 time frames (3 months, so July, August or September).

At the moment gold is testing 1,500 so it would need to come down ~9%.
I'm hoping it will test 1,362.5 as I would like to buy more but I think it's not reachable.
Where are you getting your closing number for gold? I'm getting 1409.51 as the closing for June.

The 1% rule is odd in my experience.  In my "trading rules" I put that if a over 1% rule elected reversal is true during its first time unit, then treat it as a less than 1% rule reversal.

Olegrey, I think you took Friday the 28th as month close? Gold opened again on Sunday June 30, that was still within the month of June.
Spot gold is traded 23 hours a day, from Sunday 10pm GMT through Friday 9pm GMT.
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August 08, 2019, 04:38:00 AM
 #6226

Any luck on getting these posted.  Have you used Imgur.com like Alex11 suggested? I would very much like to see these overlays.

I finally got around to adding the overlays, work has been kicking my butt lately.

Here's the DOW long term overlays:



There was some correlation there on the first as you can see the array shows some indication of a rollover prior to the crash in 2007 but the second doesn't indicate much.

Here's the oil long term overlay:


There is a directional change near the bottom in 1999 but not much of an indication on the run up you would have seen between 1999-2008

Here's the UK pound long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/JockfTy.png

Here's the EU Euro long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/pTHY4Qs.png

Here's the Gold/Silver long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/q2Vji7N.png

Here's the Gold long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/MhPgq7i.png

Here's the Silver long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/SZQ4AqF.png

Here's the Copper long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/h1gx0Nc.png

I have more but this should give folks enough to chat about for a bit anyway.  Some arrays clearly appear to have some correlation to major tops/bottoms but they are extremely hard to read with any consistency.  Best you could say would be it might give you some time periods to look at but I would definitely want to be using TA to actually pinpoint where I was in the market price action.

Thanks MTL4! very interesting to see the overlays!
Yes, I do think it's difficult to see consistency. In some charts the array's work very well and in others it doesn't. And in hindsight it's easier of course to see the patterns and see how Socrates was right/wrong.
But going forward from here is a bit more difficult...
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August 08, 2019, 06:21:00 AM
 #6227

Gold elected the "important" monthly reversal in June. We closed 1,392.08. The Bullish monthly was 1,362.50. (~2,2% above the reversal).
So according to the 1% rule we need to test the 1,362.5 reversal within 3 time frames (3 months, so July, August or September).

At the moment gold is testing 1,500 so it would need to come down ~9%.
I'm hoping it will test 1,362.5 as I would like to buy more but I think it's not reachable.
Where are you getting your closing number for gold? I'm getting 1409.51 as the closing for June.

The 1% rule is odd in my experience.  In my "trading rules" I put that if a over 1% rule elected reversal is true during its first time unit, then treat it as a less than 1% rule reversal.

Olegrey, I think you took Friday the 28th as month close? Gold opened again on Sunday June 30, that was still within the month of June.
Spot gold is traded 23 hours a day, from Sunday 10pm GMT through Friday 9pm GMT.
you're right, thank you
MTL4
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August 08, 2019, 01:19:25 PM
 #6228

I wonder how much of the overlays are hindsight. They change as one moves forward in time, not just relatively, but it also adds cycle types and peaks as you go. Plus, those are going back into the 90s so yeah. All this Armstrong stuff is just a waste of time. Better to study up and put into practice what you know, or at least subscribe to someone who can actually be coherent.


My understanding is that the arrays are supposed to be the number of "hits" each column has for the given time frame.  There is supposedly also some learning involved (debatable what MA considers AI) but by in large if the cycles work as MA suggests then it should be relatively fixed as you can see below.  Some points will grow or shrink in importance since the number of "hits" under each column varies over time but overall the market itself should have far more to do with the reversals than it should with the arrays (at least in theory).

Combined - Total hits under each column (this is why MA says to look at this for turning points)

Composite II -  Longitudinal timing model, which expand and contract through time. (supposedly where the AI comes in)

Empirical - Transverse timing model, which is comprised of fixed frequencies.

Long-Term - Long-term transverse timing mode, which has a fixed frequency that is generally three-times that of the Empirical model.

Trading Cycle - Trading Timing Model offers a union of time and direction that enables the end-user determine when a high or low is likely to occur.

Alpha Cycle - Alpha Cycle model represents the analysis of transverse frequencies, which are generated from highs-to-highs.  (would have market reference)

Beta Cycle - Beta Cycle model represents the analysis of transverse frequencies, which are generated from lows-to-lows.  (would have market reference)

Directional Change - Directional Change model represents when a market will begin to make a decisive move.

Panic Cycle - Panic Cycle model represents whether an abrupt move is about to occur within the market.

Volatility - Volatility Models provides an indication as to when a change in the current volatility trend will take place.

You guys can see for yourself in the overlays but if there were any conclusions to be drawn on this I would say that the empirical, long-term, directional, panic and volatility seem to have the most correlation to what actually happened in the market. I tried using the arrays to draw where the market would go in the future but honestly I would have done better flipping a coin so that's why I'm not giving up my TA anytime soon.

bikefront
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August 08, 2019, 02:05:19 PM
 #6229

Well done bikefront!

Good that you took advantage of this market volatility, presumably using your own set of TA rules and tools.

A shame, socrates couldn't do the same the past 3 days although there were some private blogs published on the matter,  but the usual macro views and support lines. Not tradeable as usual...

One will always be a student of the market (no matter how good you think you are or your system is) and that's why the market is the market. Even Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio made mistakes to put things into context.

Thanks. Went long on this early morning dip for another 10%. A really rare 4 hit support occurrence. Holding would have given so much more but its still a bit scary...need to work on it. The mind automatically comes up with nonsense thoughts in the middle of a trade, thus the importance of having a plan for any situation beforehand.

Markets are a matter of practice, just like other things in the professional world. I was reading up on this one professional gamer whom no one had heard of appear out of nowhere and beat all the other pros without losing a single game in a tournament. He entered another tournament, the biggest one held in history for that game with some considered all time greats attending, and won every single game again. In an interview, he said that he practices for around 5-9 hours a day. And he studies his own matches to see where he made mistakes. 
MTL4
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August 08, 2019, 03:26:25 PM
Last edit: August 08, 2019, 05:46:40 PM by MTL4
 #6230

Thanks MTL4! very interesting to see the overlays!
Yes, I do think it's difficult to see consistency. In some charts the array's work very well and in others it doesn't. And in hindsight it's easier of course to see the patterns and see how Socrates was right/wrong.
But going forward from here is a bit more difficult...

No prob.  I have a theory I've developed (you can see from the overlays that MA's arrays seem to work much better prior to 2008 than they do after that period). I do subscribe to the idea that overall world markets are very, very deep so it may be possible to influence (distort) them temporarily but control is impossible (Hunt Bros were a classic example of this).  At a smaller level this influence would be considered noise but at a larger scale it would be considered distortion.  This may also be why MA talks about moving out to larger time frames tends to show market trends more accurately.  So if you now have CBs (and by default governments) involved in the game then the potential for distortion would be substantial (and it certainly appears to be true).  Therefore at some point you would have a return to the mean type event proportional to the size of the distortion.  I guess time will tell if the theory is correct but seems to me if you prevent a forest fire for too long eventually when it gets going you need to let nature take it's course and only the rain is capable of reversing it's course.


Thanks. Went long on this early morning dip for another 10%. A really rare 4 hit support occurrence. Holding would have given so much more but its still a bit scary...need to work on it. The mind automatically comes up with nonsense thoughts in the middle of a trade, thus the importance of having a plan for any situation beforehand.


You must be trading options or leveraged ETFs to get 10% from this morning's move on the DOW? Are you just buying/selling volatility alone or did I miss something?

I could see from yesterday when volatility was declining (second peak was less than the initial) that this was another dip buy.......we are definitely not ready to roll over the stock market yet.  My recession indicators show we still haven't crossed the Rubicon to date so until then it's still BTFD.
bikefront
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August 08, 2019, 04:21:39 PM
 #6231

I trade short term options on SPX based on price levels of various indices and volatility. Had I held the long, it would have been well over a hundred percent, but y system would have made such a thing impossible. I only held it for a few points move though. And actually, there was a double hit afterwards for a short. Ended up -20% on the trade and then made another short later which worked for an extra 11%. Overall down 2% today which isn't bad I think, all things considered. Not really sure about things just yet so will likely just sit out for today.
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August 09, 2019, 03:15:32 AM
 #6232

So I ended up selling my DOG and DXD positions yesterday for 2 reasons.  First, it was a possible sell day that I didn't think would reach the next reversal.  Second, the energy model has gone negative which means the energy on the daily level is bullish.  There are two things I have learned from these latest trades which are don't buy after market if the price goes too high from the closing, just wait until the next day opening, which I should of done for DXD.  Second, pay attention to the energy models (I didn't have access to these when creating my rules).  My sell price for DOG was 55.31 and DXD was 28.49. Today I bought a position of DIA at 261.77 because the energy is negative.  No reversals were elected for this trade.

Successful elected reversals: 3
Failed elected reversal: 1
Total Gain: 10.43%
Total Loss: 1.38%
Total profit: 9.05%
bikefront
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August 09, 2019, 01:53:07 PM
 #6233

So I ended up selling my DOG and DXD positions yesterday for 2 reasons.  First, it was a possible sell day that I didn't think would reach the next reversal.  Second, the energy model has gone negative which means the energy on the daily level is bullish.  There are two things I have learned from these latest trades which are don't buy after market if the price goes too high from the closing, just wait until the next day opening, which I should of done for DXD.  Second, pay attention to the energy models (I didn't have access to these when creating my rules).  My sell price for DOG was 55.31 and DXD was 28.49. Today I bought a position of DIA at 261.77 because the energy is negative.  No reversals were elected for this trade.

Successful elected reversals: 3
Failed elected reversal: 1
Total Gain: 10.43%
Total Loss: 1.38%
Total profit: 9.05%


Great work! Might want to have a spreadsheet (if you haven't already made one) in order to see things clearly
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August 09, 2019, 04:09:51 PM
 #6234

Ended up selling my DIA at 262.91 because I got nervous, which was the right call I think.  I'm gonna wait until a reversal is elected for my next trade.

Bikefront I do have a spreadsheet for these trades.  I have a field for instrument used, date bought, date sold, bought price, sold price, and percentage gain/loss.  Do you have any suggestions for categories I should add?
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August 09, 2019, 04:22:33 PM
 #6235

Ended up selling my DIA at 262.91 because I got nervous, which was the right call I think.  I'm gonna wait until a reversal is elected for my next trade.

Bikefront I do have a spreadsheet for these trades.  I have a field for instrument used, date bought, date sold, bought price, sold price, and percentage gain/loss.  Do you have any suggestions for categories I should add?

Yes, a column for the type of Reversal (eg Daily, Weekly, etc.), max drawdown, (maybe also max drawdown per time unit) and % the Reversal was elected by. Might be possible to find some correlations within them.
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August 09, 2019, 07:04:32 PM
 #6236

Ended up selling my DIA at 262.91 because I got nervous, which was the right call I think.  I'm gonna wait until a reversal is elected for my next trade.

Bikefront I do have a spreadsheet for these trades.  I have a field for instrument used, date bought, date sold, bought price, sold price, and percentage gain/loss.  Do you have any suggestions for categories I should add?

Yes, a column for the type of Reversal (eg Daily, Weekly, etc.), max drawdown, (maybe also max drawdown per time unit) and % the Reversal was elected by. Might be possible to find some correlations within them.
Sounds good, I have a few other spreadsheets where I am collecting weekly and monthly reversals for markets I'm not trading.  I'll make them public when I feel they are populated enough
trulycoined
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August 13, 2019, 08:38:12 PM
 #6237

Hard sell of the 2020 WEC has started:


Traditionally, inverted yield curves take place during recessions and we are in one globally heading into a major low come January 2020.... We are facing a very Dark Financial Storm from which there is no escape. There is no advice being given to so many governments to avoid this crisis and waking up next year to this error will be too late. There will be nothing that can be done to put it all back together and live happily ever after. Welcome to the reality we face. At least this will make for a very interesting WEC.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/economic-storm-trump-will-be-blamed-for-because-of-bad-advisers/


Await the predictable hysterics and crescendo of MA's posts as we approach December.

How predictable that the next WEC will be in January 2020. My guess is either Singapore, Germany or London.

2020.05 will come to pass with barely a whimper, but it won't matter by then as MA is long gone with over a million dollars in event attendee money. Cue some loosely related "event" that will indeed be pinned as the Jan 2020 "turning point".


However, let me just caveat this and say one thing:

MA was correct about GBP/USD weakening considerably through 2019. However, he was not the only analyst (if he can be described as that) that saw the inevitable decline in an already well over-valued pound.

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August 14, 2019, 08:23:50 PM
 #6238

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of  25518.04 with a closing of 25479.4, a difference of .15%.  I have bought a position in DOG
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August 15, 2019, 02:52:54 PM
 #6239

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of  25518.04 with a closing of 25479.4, a difference of .15%.  I have bought a position in DOG

That ETF barely moves (vs something like UWPIX), how the heck are you making money on that? (unless you are playing options)
Also my hourly volatility chart is showing an overall decline so I'll be curious again to see how this trade works out.
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August 15, 2019, 08:35:31 PM
 #6240

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of  25518.04 with a closing of 25479.4, a difference of .15%.  I have bought a position in DOG

That ETF barely moves (vs something like UWPIX), how the heck are you making money on that? (unless you are playing options)
Also my hourly volatility chart is showing an overall decline so I'll be curious again to see how this trade works out.
I'm not convinced if Socrates has a use, so I am doing this as a feasibility study of Socrates using a small account.  I plan to use DIA and DOG until I am comfortable with my trading system.  If successful, I plan to start using DDM (2x DOW), UDOW (3x DOW), DXD (-2x DOW), SDOW (-3x DOW) and DIA call and put options.  If you look at my recent post you can see that I did make around 9% using DOG in about week.  Yes, I could have made more, but I don't trust the system yet.
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