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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 623470 times)
etoimene
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January 08, 2020, 04:52:43 PM
 #6961


 ...So far not much is happening ...


Not bad price action right now.


... If indeed a big top (for instance going towards 30K in DOW) is created around the ECM ...


Just enough time to reach such target. I plan to trade it too.
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parrisboy
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January 08, 2020, 04:54:26 PM
 #6962

Anyway Marty has interesting macro-econonomical concepts and viewpoints !

Plateau Move
Waterfall Event
Phase Transition
Directional Change
Private & Public Wave
Money Flow

and many others even if he borrowed some from others. At least for me he underlined these concepts.

All his papers and books about the history of the Banking system are very interesting

you will NEVER earn a cent trading Marty's Technical Tools because Marty has none available for the average guy like you and me.

Do not forget that Marty in his splendor dealt with central banks , financial institutions, hedge funds etc and limited to 3 attendants for each institutions the participants to his conferences.

The ticket price at the time for attending one of his conference was 10.000 $.

Now, after he spent 9 years in jail, Marty is a leper in the financial world.

Marty to survive now develops a new market : you
CaymanJack
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January 08, 2020, 05:28:08 PM
 #6963

Thanks Parisboy.

Currently I'm mostly interested what happens around January 18 ECM.
So far I have been long this market big time and where I would normally haved trimmed some around end of December I decided to see if we would rally into this date.
So far not much is happening but I'll wait and see. Gumbi has send me some information and numbers and I keep a close look at it.

If indeed a big top (for instance going towards 30K in DOW) is created around the ECM with a year long draw down then that is a nice call and I will trade it.
If nothing happens I myself close the book on MA and move on.  


He's actually calling it both ways now. From his private blog, not verbatim, if a low into the ECM, then he would expect a rally thereafter once the 2019 high is exceeded, otherwise a high into the ECM warns of a correction before the break out.

I was subscribed to his basic service which is utterly useless and I've since cancelled after his numerous failed calls.
AnonymousCoder
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January 08, 2020, 08:55:55 PM
 #6964

Thanks Parisboy.

Currently I'm mostly interested what happens around January 18 ECM.
So far I have been long this market big time and where I would normally haved trimmed some around end of December I decided to see if we would rally into this date.
So far not much is happening but I'll wait and see. Gumbi has send me some information and numbers and I keep a close look at it.

If indeed a big top (for instance going towards 30K in DOW) is created around the ECM with a year long draw down then that is a nice call and I will trade it.
If nothing happens I myself close the book on MA and move on. 


He's actually calling it both ways now. From his private blog, not verbatim, if a low into the ECM, then he would expect a rally thereafter once the 2019 high is exceeded, otherwise a high into the ECM warns of a correction before the break out.

I was subscribed to his basic service which is utterly useless and I've since cancelled after his numerous failed calls.

You are saying that he makes two contradicting calls. Additionally, it is interesting that both are  self-fulfilling as well. See  A Self-fulfilling Financial Forecast how that works, how he constructs these forecasts.

Worthless.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

bikefront
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January 09, 2020, 12:32:00 AM
 #6965

Does anyone have a list of all the schools of thought/people Armstrong took his ideas from? The more I read on Dow theory, the closer the ideas seem to be on Armstrong's words about trend movements.
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January 09, 2020, 02:51:08 AM
Last edit: January 09, 2020, 04:00:10 PM by parrisboy
 #6966

Does anyone have a list of all the schools of thought/people Armstrong took his ideas from? The more I read on Dow theory, the closer the ideas seem to be on Armstrong's words about trend movements.

Bikefront

Marty was during several years Chairman of the FSC (Foundation for the Study of Cycles

this is the place where he acquired most of his knowledge about "cycles"

the "array methodology" to determine cycles periods was of common use before researchers could use personal computers

FSC published the review Cycles . I have all what was published by "Cycles"

https://cyclesresearchinstitute.wordpress.com/2011/08/26/cycles-research-institute-is-7-years-old/
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January 09, 2020, 07:53:40 AM
Last edit: January 09, 2020, 11:05:10 PM by Lindegas
 #6967

I've done alot of empirical testing on it against real market data

you may have done your testing on inaccurate array data. You can forget about the arrays from Feb. 2019  - August 2019 on ask-socrates.com.  I'm sure they were completely faulty during that time.

This is part of the problem.  Even if the Socrates system did work, the roll out was quite unprofessional because the subscribers were basically the guinea pigs.
Well, there was this banner on ask-socrates.com that they are still migrating the data and there may be issues. So there was and still is a warning on the system.  I think MA just wanted to get the system released and grant access to the reversals. I don't want to discuss that things went wrong with the release of SOC Pro. This I've mentioned already numerous times. I just wanted to say that the arrays didn't make any sense before, but they do now. So your tests have been done based on inaccurate data (which was of course not your fault).  I'm also not talking about whether the arrays are good or not. That is a different question.


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January 09, 2020, 08:34:13 AM
Last edit: January 09, 2020, 10:20:13 AM by AnonymousCoder
 #6968

I've done alot of empirical testing on it against real market data

you may have done your testing on inaccurate array data. You can forget about the arrays from Feb. 2019  - August 2019 on ask-socrates.com.  I'm sure they were completely faulty during that time.

This is part of the problem.  Even if the Socrates system did work, the roll out was quite unprofessional because the subscribers were basically the guinea pigs.
Well, there was this banner on ask-socrates.com that they are still migrating the data and there may be issues. So there was and still is a warning on the system.  I think MA just wanted to get the system released and grant access to the reversals. I don't want to discuss that things went wrong with the release of SOC Pro. This I've mentioned already numerous times. I just wanted to say that the arrays didn't make any sense before, but they do now. So your tests have been done based on inaccurate data (which was of course not your fault).  I'm also not talking about whether the arrays are good or not. That is a different question.



Ok so if he sold us Smurf’s inaccurate information then
a. Where’s my credit or refund
b. Why hasn’t he contacted people like myself who cancelled subscriptions and offered a credit or allowed access to his updated and supposedly now working arrays reversals etc.
For the record I was a Pro subscriber
His best call remains DO NOT GO LONG THIS MARKET
As we say in Australia MAs FULL OF SHIT
WOULD LOVE TO PUNCH HIM IN THE FACE

Same thing happened to me. When I noticed, I asked  for a refund. These assholes refused - that is one of the many reasons why why I am here now.

There are obviously still enough idiots born every day, so what Gumbi wrote to me makes total sense:

Quote from: Gumbi on December 29, 2019, 09:02:17 PM
There is no such thing as bad publicity. The irony is I found out about Armstrong from people like you.

HAHA my first victim  Kiss


So where are the victims? Just look here:

Reality of a Global Currency


Now, in case that anybody thinks that Socrates works now or is any better because they have fixed something - no way. They basically replaced one random solution with another random solution. IT CAN'T BE FIXED.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.
blinder007
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January 09, 2020, 10:54:13 AM
 #6969

I think MA has been doing more damage to Investors than any of the other bad Advisors
(I think even worse than Bob Prechter – and that is almost not possible to beat).
I was stumbling over his writings in the 90ties. And read some of his stuff over the years until the release of Socrates.
Thank god I did not listen. I use my own system. But always interested in new ideas and developments.
What I can say is, he was never right a market at the right time.
Examples:
Gold:  All the way from the bottom in 1999 to the top in 2011 his comments: No bull market, no breakout yet, not now – only when it goes above 2400 US/oz bullish.   It rose 700 %
US and other stock markets: did not recognize the bottom in 2009, then calling for lower 2011, 2013, then the end of the world in 2015 (always predicting a Slingshot move – first down – then up).
(That move had happened 2007 – 2009). 
Then the bullshit report End 2017: How to trade a vertical Market? DJ almost at 25000 (after almost 8 years of vertical market rise).  After his report almost 2 years of sideways high volatility gyration between 27’000 and 21’500.   And in every reaction, panicking and calling for  even lower lows.
Good luck with that.
Interest rates, housing markets :  100 % wrong
Bitcoin:  at around 2’500: Almost daily reports like: no bull market, Government won’t allow it, blablabla.  Next thing: parabolic rise to the 19’000 area.
And his Socrates is 100% crap. The software of the so called AI written reports is most probably written in Cobol and unbelievable stupid. In any timeframe you can always find on the report justification to buy, sell or be flat.
Always wrong any market.  And by law he is forbidden to give Financial Advice or manage other people’s  money.
And here his case:
Martin A. Armstrong, the founder, chairman, and owner of Princeton Economics International Ltd ("Princeton Economics"), an unregistered investment adviser, appeals from the decision of an administrative law judge. The law judge barred Armstrong from association with any investment adviser based on Armstrong's conviction on a single count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, wire fraud, and commodities fraud and his injunction from violation of antifraud provisions of the federal securities laws. We base our findings on an independent review of the record, except with respect to those findings not challenged on appeal.
On August 17, 2006, Armstrong, then fifty-six years old, pled guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, wire fraud, and commodities fraud.1 The district court sentenced Armstrong to sixty months' imprisonment and three years supervised release, and ordered him to pay $80,000,001 in restitution to sixty defrauded customers.
As part of his guilty plea, Armstrong entered a sworn allocution admitting to and describing his crime. In his allocution, Armstrong admitted that between 1992 and 1999, he sold promissory notes issued by Princeton Economics subsidiaries ("Princeton Notes") to investors, mostly Japanese corporations. Armstrong, through his agents, represented to the investors that the proceeds from the sale of the Princeton Notes would be held in accounts at Republic New York Securities ("Republic") and that those accounts "would be separate and segregated from Republic's own accounts and would not be available to Republic for its own benefit."
According to Armstrong's allocution, after he suffered "some millions of dollars of trading losses," he decided "not to disclose to investors that . . . substantial losses had been experienced in this trading of futures. And we did not disclose it." Armstrong also admitted that his concealment of his losses went beyond non-disclosure: "letters were sent by my company to investors concerning how much money was in fact in the accounts assigned to them. I . . . did send out those letters, even though . . . I knew the amounts in the accounts were less than the letters stated."
So you want to send cash into the hands of this convicted felon, that looks like a slimy used car salesman who cannot write a sentence correct? Think twice.
Roger and Out.
555Many
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January 09, 2020, 11:05:52 AM
 #6970

Thanks Parisboy.

Currently I'm mostly interested what happens around January 18 ECM.
So far I have been long this market big time and where I would normally haved trimmed some around end of December I decided to see if we would rally into this date.
So far not much is happening but I'll wait and see. Gumbi has send me some information and numbers and I keep a close look at it.

If indeed a big top (for instance going towards 30K in DOW) is created around the ECM with a year long draw down then that is a nice call and I will trade it.
If nothing happens I myself close the book on MA and move on.  

he sent them to me also, and I am excited to see. I still dont' understand how the forecast can be proven wrong.
DanB1
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January 09, 2020, 11:46:45 AM
 #6971

Thanks Parisboy.

Currently I'm mostly interested what happens around January 18 ECM.
So far I have been long this market big time and where I would normally haved trimmed some around end of December I decided to see if we would rally into this date.
So far not much is happening but I'll wait and see. Gumbi has send me some information and numbers and I keep a close look at it.

If indeed a big top (for instance going towards 30K in DOW) is created around the ECM with a year long draw down then that is a nice call and I will trade it.
If nothing happens I myself close the book on MA and move on.  

he sent them to me also, and I am excited to see. I still dont' understand how the forecast can be proven wrong.

What he basically is saying now is: a high around Saturday January 18 (week before or after)= turning down 20%+ into Q1 2021. Only if US share markets make a low on the ECM we would rally in 2020 once we take out 2019 high.
For now, taking out 28.971,94 on a weekly basis could mean going toward 30k.

So he means either a big low or a big high around the ECM. Looking at yesterday's price action, a low seems hardly possible anymore.
s29
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January 09, 2020, 04:50:20 PM
 #6972

Thanks Parisboy.

Currently I'm mostly interested what happens around January 18 ECM.
So far I have been long this market big time and where I would normally haved trimmed some around end of December I decided to see if we would rally into this date.
So far not much is happening but I'll wait and see. Gumbi has send me some information and numbers and I keep a close look at it.

If indeed a big top (for instance going towards 30K in DOW) is created around the ECM with a year long draw down then that is a nice call and I will trade it.
If nothing happens I myself close the book on MA and move on.  

he sent them to me also, and I am excited to see. I still dont' understand how the forecast can be proven wrong.

What he basically is saying now is: a high around Saturday January 18 (week before or after)= turning down 20%+ into Q1 2021. Only if US share markets make a low on the ECM we would rally in 2020 once we take out 2019 high.
For now, taking out 28.971,94 on a weekly basis could mean going toward 30k.

So he means either a big low or a big high around the ECM. Looking at yesterday's price action, a low seems hardly possible anymore.

Thanks.

But we're already have taking out the 2019-high on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq.

I think MA has been doing more damage to Investors than any of the other bad Advisors
(I think even worse than Bob Prechter – and that is almost not possible to beat).
I was stumbling over his writings in the 90ties. And read some of his stuff over the years until the release of Socrates.
Thank god I did not listen. I use my own system. But always interested in new ideas and developments.
What I can say is, he was never right a market at the right time.
Examples:
Gold:  All the way from the bottom in 1999 to the top in 2011 his comments: No bull market, no breakout yet, not now – only when it goes above 2400 US/oz bullish.   It rose 700 %
US and other stock markets: did not recognize the bottom in 2009, then calling for lower 2011, 2013, then the end of the world in 2015 (always predicting a Slingshot move – first down – then up).
(That move had happened 2007 – 2009). 
Then the bullshit report End 2017: How to trade a vertical Market? DJ almost at 25000 (after almost 8 years of vertical market rise).  After his report almost 2 years of sideways high volatility gyration between 27’000 and 21’500.   And in every reaction, panicking and calling for  even lower lows.
Good luck with that.
Interest rates, housing markets :  100 % wrong
Bitcoin:  at around 2’500: Almost daily reports like: no bull market, Government won’t allow it, blablabla.  Next thing: parabolic rise to the 19’000 area.
And his Socrates is 100% crap. The software of the so called AI written reports is most probably written in Cobol and unbelievable stupid. In any timeframe you can always find on the report justification to buy, sell or be flat.
Always wrong any market.  And by law he is forbidden to give Financial Advice or manage other people’s  money.
And here his case:
Martin A. Armstrong, the founder, chairman, and owner of Princeton Economics International Ltd ("Princeton Economics"), an unregistered investment adviser, appeals from the decision of an administrative law judge. The law judge barred Armstrong from association with any investment adviser based on Armstrong's conviction on a single count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, wire fraud, and commodities fraud and his injunction from violation of antifraud provisions of the federal securities laws. We base our findings on an independent review of the record, except with respect to those findings not challenged on appeal.
On August 17, 2006, Armstrong, then fifty-six years old, pled guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, wire fraud, and commodities fraud.1 The district court sentenced Armstrong to sixty months' imprisonment and three years supervised release, and ordered him to pay $80,000,001 in restitution to sixty defrauded customers.
As part of his guilty plea, Armstrong entered a sworn allocution admitting to and describing his crime. In his allocution, Armstrong admitted that between 1992 and 1999, he sold promissory notes issued by Princeton Economics subsidiaries ("Princeton Notes") to investors, mostly Japanese corporations. Armstrong, through his agents, represented to the investors that the proceeds from the sale of the Princeton Notes would be held in accounts at Republic New York Securities ("Republic") and that those accounts "would be separate and segregated from Republic's own accounts and would not be available to Republic for its own benefit."
According to Armstrong's allocution, after he suffered "some millions of dollars of trading losses," he decided "not to disclose to investors that . . . substantial losses had been experienced in this trading of futures. And we did not disclose it." Armstrong also admitted that his concealment of his losses went beyond non-disclosure: "letters were sent by my company to investors concerning how much money was in fact in the accounts assigned to them. I . . . did send out those letters, even though . . . I knew the amounts in the accounts were less than the letters stated."
So you want to send cash into the hands of this convicted felon, that looks like a slimy used car salesman who cannot write a sentence correct? Think twice.
Roger and Out.


Nice analysis. Can't Marty hire you for the opening ceremony of his next conference just like Ricky Gervais was at the Golden Globes?
s29
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January 09, 2020, 05:08:14 PM
 #6973

LMAO, Marty now contradicts himself with the image of the Sovereign Debt Crisis and that 2015.75 was the START of lower interest rates going into the 2020 ECM low. For years, he said that it was the start of HIGHER interest rates on bonds.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/why-is-2022-a-possible-change-in-the-presidency/

Quote
Why is 2022 A Possible Change in the Presidency?
Blog/Politics
Posted Jan 9, 2020 by Martin Armstrong



Then 2015.75 was the start of Big Bang, and indeed interest rates went negative in Europe just before that target and going into 2020 there are now $17+ trillion of negative-yielding European debt.

"and indeed"...  Roll Eyes
parrisboy
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January 09, 2020, 05:37:54 PM
 #6974

My experience with Market "gurus" is that it is the "groupies" who create the "guru".

without "groupies" no gurus.

I was very disappointed in WEC 2011 in Philadelphia. I discovered that 99 % of the attendants were satisfied with MA prestations.

I assume it is the social approbation trick + the fact they have paid a lot of dollars

IMHO that is the second trick : the more you pay, the less you can accept you have made an error and wasted your money

hence you list all the "rational  " reasons explaining , justifying why you have not wasted your money.

My personal cost was my share of the trip , around 500 euros , which is reasonable for a 4 days touristic excursion in Philadelphia and surroundings !
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January 09, 2020, 06:50:24 PM
Merited by Traxo (1)
 #6975

This email response sums everything up for me. I emailed him or the team back in April...

https://ibb.co/gPWd1nw

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January 09, 2020, 07:05:30 PM
 #6976

This email response sums everything up for me. I emailed him or the team back in April...

https://ibb.co/gPWd1nw



LMAO, this market has been exploding higher since 2009. Roughly 400% higher from the low. It already has been breaking out. Where has he been?
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January 09, 2020, 08:32:09 PM
 #6977

https://vimeo.com/ondemand/theforecaster

By the way, another disappointment from Marty !

In the fees paid to attend the WEC 2011 in Philadelphia were included quarterly updates for several markets.

And at the conference Marty told us publicly that we will be given a video of all his interventions which were recorded by a german television team which later produced "The Forecaster".

We never got this video in spite to many calls to Marty's secretary and I saw The Forecaster (and Marty) later in Paris during a private projection for the modest fee of 12 euros !

May I add that despite numerous requests of my friend Pierre to Marty's secretary, he never got the promised market updates
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January 11, 2020, 08:14:25 AM
Last edit: January 11, 2020, 08:36:53 AM by Shakfrek
 #6978



He and Socrates are not perfect.  No one can be.  But bashing someone who clearly knows one hell of a lot more that you do - and has the work history, following, and money to prove it - makes you look jealous and petty.  If you think you know more than he does - start your own investment firm/ai company and convince sovereign wealth funds and billionaires to put their money in your care.  Good luck with that...




Here comes another "newbie" like gumbi, alex and the rest of the shills who I bet is Armstrong himself. Quite a sad and pathetic display Sad

One thing is for sure, he has the rap sheet to prove it!  As for money and the rest pls prove it, prove that he has any money, I bet you can't because he is probably broke.  How about proving SWF and Billionaires let me guess just another lie?  You really think a SWF and a billionaire would put money with a high school educated admitted convicted fraudster?  Either your mind is fried or you are his shill or perhaps Martin Armstrong himself.

You know what we can prove?  That he does nothing but lie and that his forecasts are useless and almost always wrong.  If one thing Armstrong will be remembered by true investors is that he is a true contrarian indicator in other words he is the patsy.  Fade Martin Armstrong and that's how you can make money.

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January 11, 2020, 08:35:09 AM
 #6979



Marty to survive now develops a new market : you


BINGO
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January 11, 2020, 09:26:35 AM
Last edit: January 11, 2020, 09:40:50 AM by Traxo
 #6980

-snip-

So umm. Another weird video post:  

Robot Restaurants Are Very Popular in Asia

Categories: Technology
Tags: Creative Destruction, video

"Creative Destruction"? What in the world?  

Also, video publishing date is Dec 31, 2014.
What the heck does it tell us about current popularity of such restaurants? What is he trying to imply here?

Here is some not-Asia more recent video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3sQxILrcsY
Seems cool, but not really efficient tbh.

Is Marty fearmongering again? Better I buy his $500 reports to save myself from robot invasion!
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