June 14th to June 28th Diff adjustment thread. Picks are closed!!

[philipma1957]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNN1KmSH7Dk

flo rida! 


BTW  I think it is a truly brilliant nametag for a rapper.

I'd heard of him many, many times, but only now seeing it spelled out realize it's Florida.  ha!

yeah I saw him and Pitbull doing a  special from Miami when I figured out what his name meant I cracked up laughing .

[Mikestang]

Time to form up my band, Cali for Nia. 

[alh]

Late night update for those folks that check-in here:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,692,386,355
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,806,032,346 (+0.23%)
Adjust time:    After 734 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?):    340,748,975 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours

Price: $245

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

part day

6-14-2014  108-----114          -6

full days

6-15-2015   142-----144         -2

6-16-2015   125-----144        -19

6-17-2015   143-----144         - 1

6-18-2015   165-----144   = +21

6-19-2015   147-----144 =    +3

6-20-2015    134-----144 = -10

6-21-2015    125----144 = -19

6-22-2015    144----144  =  0

6-23-2015    144----144  = 0

total             1377---1410   =  -33

so real number is ( -2.34%)  as of the end of 6-23-2015!



Now (- 2.34%)  is a  real time number as of the end of 6/23/2015

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

 (+0.53%%) a prediction number.------------------- frankly it is off by a mile --based on current real time number of -2.34%



Price is about BTC/USD: $245.00


So far if the numbers hold we will be under 50 bill diff.

[alh]

My late night update from bitcoinwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,692,386,355
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,308,957,959 (+1.24%)
Adjust time:    After 581 Blocks, About 4.0 days
Hashrate(?):    351,673,066 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.5 minutes
6 blocks: 59.0 minutes

Price $245

My poorly calibrated eyeball thinks that the last difficulty jump moved us to a pretty stable state, and what we are seeing now is the normal "variance". I think that we see drops, and then subsequent jumps due to some amount of miner relocation. Just watching the HaoBTC thread and videos make it clear that there is a fair amount of PH that's down for a few days and then "springs back to life" after it has found a new, lower cost home.

The game is all about efficiency and electricity cost. A fact which is probably obvious to all. 

[notlist3d]

Morning bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,692,386,355
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,349,638,137 (+1.32%)
Adjust time:    After 547 Blocks, About 3.7 days
Hashrate(?):    357,065,121 GH/s

And price is around 243 so still not a bad week.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

part day

6-14-2014  108-----114          -6

full days

6-15-2015   142-----144         -2

6-16-2015   125-----144        -19

6-17-2015   143-----144         - 1

6-18-2015   165-----144   = +21

6-19-2015   147-----144 =    +3

6-20-2015    138-----144 = -10

6-21-2015    125----144 = -19

6-22-2015    144----144  =  0

6-23-2015    144----144  = 0

6-24-2015    149----144 = +5

6-25-2015    160----144 =  +16

total             1690---1698   =  -8

so real number is ( -0.471%)  as of the end of 6-25-2015!





https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+0.24%)

 
Price is about BTC/USD: $243.00


So far if the numbers hold we will be under 50 bill diff.

we have around 472 blocks left

[notlist3d]

Looks like bitwisdom is showing a tad positive:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,692,386,355
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,810,584,803 (+0.24%)
Adjust time:    After 398 Blocks, About 2.7 days
Hashrate(?):    371,584,155 GH/s

(it could jump back to negative it's a small positive at this point)

[suchmoon]

Looks like bitwisdom is showing a tad positive:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,692,386,355
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,810,584,803 (+0.24%)
Adjust time:    After 398 Blocks, About 2.7 days
Hashrate(?):    371,584,155 GH/s

(it could jump back to negative it's a small positive at this point)

If you look at the bitcoinwisdom chart it looks like it spent most of the current cycle in the negative territory, so for the adjustment to be at or above zero it would need to have a spike up during those last ~300 blocks. Which it appears to be doing. I expect a very small change this time. Incredibly we have a couple of empty spots on both sides of zero so it could be yet another rollover 

[philipma1957]

Looks like bitwisdom is showing a tad positive:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,692,386,355
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,810,584,803 (+0.24%)
Adjust time:    After 398 Blocks, About 2.7 days
Hashrate(?):    371,584,155 GH/s

(it could jump back to negative it's a small positive at this point)

If you look at the bitcoinwisdom chart it looks like it spent most of the current cycle in the negative territory, so for the adjustment to be at or above zero it would need to have a spike up during those last ~300 blocks. Which it appears to be doing. I expect a very small change this time. Incredibly we have a couple of empty spots on both sides of zero so it could be yet another rollover 

yeah two shots at a miss also if you count 0, three shots  at a miss.  at this moment we are negative -0.66%


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   362492
Total BTC   14.312M
 
Difficulty   49692386355
Estimated   49363464644 in 388 blks
 
Network total   398950.450 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.73 / 535 s


but with 388 blocks  left  we can change a lot

[HerbPean]

We have a huge push in the Hashrate at the moment. I guess it will stay like that for the rest of the current Diff.

I smell +1-2% at least

[philipma1957]

We have a huge push in the Hashrate at the moment. I guess it will stay like that for the rest of the current Diff.

I smell +1-2% at least

https://blockchain.info/blocks

362517    17:26         
362402    00:04

so 116 blocks in 17.5 hours   should be 6 x 17.5 = 105   so 11 plus today with 6.5 hours to go.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

part day

6-14-2014  108-----114          -6

full days

6-15-2015   142-----144         -2

6-16-2015   125-----144        -19

6-17-2015   143-----144         - 1

6-18-2015   165-----144   = +21

6-19-2015   147-----144 =    +3

6-20-2015    138-----144 = -10

6-21-2015    125----144 = -19

6-22-2015    144----144  =  0

6-23-2015    144----144  = 0

6-24-2015    149----144 = +5

6-25-2015    160----144 =  +16

6-26-2015    150----144 = +6

total             1840---1842   =  -2

so real number is ( -0.108%)  as of the end of 6-25-2015!





https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+0.24%)

 
Price is about BTC/USD: $243.00


So far if the numbers hold we will be under 50 bill diff.

we have around 307 blocks left

[HerbPean]

Yeah let's hope for a bit of badluck so we stay under 50G

[tlhIlwI]

It is so close, but I'm watching my chances slip away with this hash rate increase.

[philipma1957]

It is so close, but I'm watching my chances slip away with this hash rate increase.

yeah we have drifted up a bit more.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   49,692,386,355
Estimated Next Difficulty:   50,115,392,001 (+0.85%)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Difficulty   49692386355
Estimated   50151443039 in 209 blks

+0.67%  

both have us over 0%

and it is possible to do a carryover!

below are the closest    

-1.26% to -1.50%  gallery2000
-1.01% to -1.25%  philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%  Last of the V8s
-0.51% to -0.75%  tlhIwI --------------- corrected from -0.50%


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>no one went for -0.26% to -0.50%


-0.01% to -0.25%  Kexkey

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>no one went for 0  which would be 0.4 btc prize with the bonus and rollover combined

+0.01% to +0.25% zebedee

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>no one took this pick  +0.26% to +0.50%

+0.51% to +0.75% Amph---------------- settled Amph gets this
+0.76% to +1.00% alh
+1.01% to +1.25% mavericklm
+1.26% to +1.50% Lboss
+1.51% to +1.75% EMIF    ----------and EMIF gets this.
+1.76% to +2.00% jonnybravo0311
+2.01% to +2.25% tertius993






 

[HerbPean]

Looks like someone gonna win the jackpot !

I was hoping for my 4:20 ... but nope !

[HerbPean]

WoW antoher big push in the HashRate (390PH as per Bitcoinwisdom)

[philipma1957]

yeah onwards and upwards   we may clear 2% by the time this is over.

[Mikestang]

There always seems to be a bump in network hash power right toward the end of adjustment.  Coincidence, or by design I wonder?