🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 (OP)
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September 22, 2012, 12:38:32 PM |
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I'm thinking of starting a company that will invest in HYIPs with Liberty Reserve. Generally, HYIPs stay afloat for a few months and then disappear after there is not enough new members joining to pay back the previous ones. I will attempt to minimize the risk by spreading it out and withdrawing early, not keeping it inside the scams. Interest will be around 7% weekly, and it's not a ponzi scheme! Because of diversification and strategic withdraws (everyone who withdrawn from Pirate before the default profited massively), I should be able to provide high returns at moderate risk.
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Each block is stacked on top of the previous one. Adding another block to the top makes all lower blocks more difficult to remove: there is more "weight" above each block. A transaction in a block 6 blocks deep (6 confirmations) will be very difficult to remove.
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Francesco
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September 22, 2012, 12:57:54 PM |
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I'm thinking of starting a company that will invest in HYIPs with Liberty Reserve. Generally, HYIPs stay afloat for a few months and then disappear after there is not enough new members joining to pay back the previous ones. I will attempt to minimize the risk by spreading it out and withdrawing early, not keeping it inside the scams. Interest will be around 7% weekly, and it's not a ponzi scheme! Because of diversification and strategic withdraws (everyone who withdrawn from Pirate before the default profited massively), I should be able to provide high returns at moderate risk.
moderate risk, lol. don't you think if it was this easy people would be doing it all the time? If you think you can do it, ther's only one way you can convince me too: try to prove your ability posting here what you would do for a year, and we'll see at the end how profitable it can be. |
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WITRcenter
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September 22, 2012, 01:27:09 PM |
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A portfolio distributed in an asset class whose expected performance is negative will make a stable negative investment return.
wait, what if the bitcoin pirce spikes?
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Vandroiy
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September 22, 2012, 01:28:05 PM
Last edit: September 22, 2012, 02:00:20 PM by Vandroiy |
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If this kind of thing happens, it should not fail, or else you have to justify feeding Ponzis. "Hey, I accidentally donated to scammers" doesn't ring too well with some people.
Some past results might help, preferably with decisions time-stamped by someone trustworthy. In fact, that's still insufficient, because in real operation, your withdraws might trigger defaults, making the thing even worse than it looks on first sight. I don't see an average 7% coming, and does "moderate risk" mean you can just decide to not pay in the end?
So that's pretty horrible as an investment.
It is an interesting question though whether one can profit from HYIPs without supporting them. In a theoretical environment with no extra information, I'm pretty sure it's impossible. Boils down to properties of the exponential function again, and the fact that the operator can always tune rules to his benefit. Reality holds additional information though, who knows what might work?
I'd not try without a very good plan though. The possibility of feeding fraudulent HYIPs if it goes wrong is unacceptable to me. If ever, I'd only play Ponzis like MMM, which are honest about their nature.
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Akka
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September 22, 2012, 01:37:58 PM |
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Thinking you can get out of a HYIP in Time everytime is basically the same as playing roulette with a reverse marginal system.
It may work a few times, but sooner or later the house edge will get you.
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Bitcoin Oz
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September 22, 2012, 01:39:18 PM |
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In short its not ethical to support your proposal as you are basically the recipient of stolen funds.
It also means people offering low risk loans are targeted by scammers who borrow to invest in this shit which makes it even more difficult to get low interest loans for legitimate purposes.
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markm
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September 22, 2012, 01:54:11 PM |
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It has been tried over and over and over. I lost count of the number of consolidation funds I have seen that tried to consolidate lots of HYIPs to supposedly spread the risk.
Also it is a marketing game. How large a mailing-list do you have of people with a known proclivity for playing HYIPs who will hear about new HYIPs from your spam before they will hear about them from someone else's or see its ads on one of the forums dedicated to HYIPs?
Many tend to give a commission even if you have not put in any money yourself, so if you do have such a mailing list it would probably be best to only advertise them for the commission you'll get on other people's deposits, not actually put in any money yourself.
As already said above, its been tried to death. Do you run an HYIP forums bigger and better (more traffic more apt to pour money into such things) than anyone else's?
The only reliable way you'll come out ahead is by simply running a ponzi yourself without putting in to anyone else's.
Remember you can't actually even be sure what you put into is a ponzi, many aren't even really a ponzi, just quick scams, creating an illusion of being a ponzi just long enough to suck in some money from people who like to play "known ponzi" games...
So actually belay that run a ponzi yourself. Run a scam yourself; running a ponzi you'll just get sucked dry early on by those who know to get out their capital fast... Even giving multi level commission pyramid might not convince them to send you enough contacts from their own mailing lists to get you by, though maybe if you do it enough times over and over and over you will eventually develop enough of a mailing list to rake some profit each time around...
Are the bitcoin "openly pyramid or ponzi" games still running? How much profit have you made so far playing those and marketing them?
-MarkM-
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Vandroiy
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September 22, 2012, 02:09:17 PM |
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Many tend to give a commission even if you have not put in any money yourself, so if you do have such a mailing list it would probably be best to only advertise them for the commission you'll get on other people's deposits, not actually put in any money yourself.
Just that some people, including me, get angry at people who do this. Depending on who does it, this may become a liability. Advertising a scam is not all that different from scamming. People who toasted their reputation this much often end up scamming themselves, so what's with the detour? |
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markm
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September 22, 2012, 02:14:55 PM |
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Advertising a scam is not all that different from scamming. People who toasted their reputation this much often end up scamming themselves, so what's with the detour?
We already know the guy's a scammer, we're on to discussing whether the scam would actually work. Reminds me of that story about Winston Churchill in a railway carriage with a young lady. "Young lady, will you sleep with me if I pay you a million pounds?" He asked. She agreed! So "How about for five shillings then?" he offered. "What kind of a girl do you think I am!" she protested. "Ma'm, that has already been established", he replied. "Now we are merely discussing the price." -MarkM- |
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thebaron
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September 22, 2012, 02:20:23 PM |
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Unfortunately, your idea is just going to encourage people to come up with fraudulent schemes for you to invest in. Don't kid yourself that they're going to allow you to actually withdraw.
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dust
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September 22, 2012, 02:21:39 PM |
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Playing HYIPs is like playing stocks on NYSE. 9 out of 10 will lose but some people are good at it...
Free market, I would risk 2 BTC (but assume its gone forever).
No, it is not. HYIP is an euphemism for scam. All scams are -EV for their participants (negative expected value) Investing in a diverse set of scams is still -EV. In contrast, stocks are +EV on average, and diversification reduces variance. |
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Nefario
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September 22, 2012, 02:24:30 PM |
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How is this spreading risk, you're "investing" in the most risky assets that are out there, ones that are known to likely fail with the win being able to get out before the crash. You're not spreading risk you're concentrating it, and the result is likely going to be a complete loss.
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Factory
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September 22, 2012, 03:16:45 PM |
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Playing HYIPs is like playing stocks on NYSE. 9 out of 10 will lose but some people are good at it...
Free market, I would risk 2 BTC (but assume its gone forever).
No, it is not. HYIP is an euphemism for scam. All scams are -EV for their participants (negative expected value) Investing in a diverse set of scams is still -EV. In contrast, stocks are +EV on average, and diversification reduces variance. Fiat is a euphemism for scam too, what is your point? You can't tell me no one has ever made money in HYPS or FIAT... lulz... Dust is correct. He was not talking about if someone can make money, he was talking about EV. These are not the same thing. Also, if you are calling fiat a 'scam', then you are conceding HYPS denominated in fiat currencies are inherently carry more risk for participants. |
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Factory
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September 22, 2012, 03:19:17 PM |
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I should be able to provide high returns at moderate risk.
There is no debate. Such an endouvor would carry an extreme risk. HYPS operate in a black-box fashion, and thus you can not evaluate the risks on any level that could be meaningful. |
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DeathAndTaxes
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September 22, 2012, 03:59:37 PM |
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Fiat is a euphemism for scam too, what is your point? You can't tell me no one has ever made money in HYPS or FIAT... lulz...
People have "made money" buying lottery tickets too but nobody would be foolish enough to think an investment system based on buying lots of lottery tickets each week is +EV. |
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Puppet
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September 22, 2012, 04:11:18 PM |
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People have "made money" buying lottery tickets too but nobody would be foolish enough to think an investment system based on buying lots of lottery tickets each week is +EV.
Isnt that how Sonny from BFL earned his.. jail time?  |
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DeathAndTaxes
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Gerald Davis
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September 22, 2012, 04:20:46 PM |
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If you bothered to read my first post in the thread you would understand that my small investment would be thought of as a lotto ticket... Let me simplify it for you. Buying lottery ticket =/= investment. Buying lottery ticket = gambling. gambling =/= investment. If you think of a lottery ticket as an investment well that explains a lot... |
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odolvlobo
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September 23, 2012, 04:49:18 AM |
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It seems like there are a lot of people coming up with stupid business ideas for others to invest in, and most of these people don't know anything about running a business or have any idea how their business is going to work.
It occurred to me that this is just like what happened in the dot com bubble. There are lot of people with bitcoins looking for something to do with them, and this brings out a lot of people looking for bitcoins to fund their crazy business ideas.
Anyway, in this case, this idea is pretty stupid. There is nothing that the OP wrote that shows that it can even work. Furthermore, even it could work, TradeFortress is no expert. He has probably never even run a business before. Who would be foolish enough to invest in that situation?
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Bitcoin Oz
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September 23, 2012, 04:54:44 AM |
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It seems like there are a lot of people coming up with stupid business ideas for others to invest in, and most of these people don't know anything about running a business or have any idea how their business is going to work.
It occurred to me that this is just like what happened in the dot com bubble. There are lot of people with bitcoins looking for something to do with them, and this brings out a lot of people looking for bitcoins to fund their crazy business ideas.
Anyway, in this case, this idea is pretty stupid. There is nothing that the OP wrote that shows that it can even work. Furthermore, even it could work, TradeFortress is no expert. He has probably never even run a business before. Who would be foolish enough to invest in that situation?
People who send a guy named pirate 500 000 bitcoins ? |
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