Is Gavin "The Financial Crisis Is Over" Andresen correct, compromised, or crazy?

[tvbcof]

He talks about the financial crises in bitcoin! -> Translation: Bearmarket is over. He knows a huge pump is coming and this is exactly why he is afraid, the blocksize limit could be too small.

Not really, it sounds like he's talking about the economy in the classic sense, nothing to do with BTC.
Im a proposal for a blocksize increase and like his model of 8MB of increase per 2 year schelude, but if this guy thinks the financial crisis is over then he has no idea whatsoever when it comes to actual geopolitics/economics. Let's not forget this guy is an agent* at heart and not a geopolitical analyst.

ftfy

*USG tit sucker.

Your fix may or may not be accurate.  With only a few exceptions, everyone I've known from MIT have been terrific engineers and hold their own as scientists.  IIT same.  Gavin is clearly no where near that league.  It is the case that educational institutions serve as laundering facilities to get funding to individuals in order to achieve certain goals.  Their utility and use in this capacity seems to have exploded recently.

A more blatant error is what I've high-lighted which is simply wrong.  Gavin's proposal in question is exponential.  It ends up with blocks being 1000 times the current size after 10 cycles.  Not 8m*10 or 80MB.  As I've said, people need to be careful here and watch the pea.

[1713501599]

1713501599

[iCEBREAKER]

This Gavin-bashing smear campaign is pretty sad.

Agreed. It's still a gob smacking quote.

Judging by the vehemence of some responses here, my tiny effort to draw attention to Gavin's gob smacking quote has apparently touched some raw nerves.   

It's remarkable how instead of simply debating the truth/false value of Gavin's "Financial Crisis Is Over" proposition, so many are attacking me for bringing it up, demanding I close the thread, etc.

Of course it's uncomfortable for GavinCoiners who believe the financial crisis is *far* from over to hear their Dear Leader explicitly tie purported feasibility of larger blocks to the supposed current and presumably sustained economic recovery.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

It doesn't seem like he's talking about whether the financial crisis actually is over (does that even seem like something Gavin would say??). As I read him, he's merely saying that companies perceive the financial crisis to be over and are making investments, which is true.

[mjosephs]

[iCEBREAKER]

Oh, so the lead developer of a software project is not necessarily the most competent person alive when it comes to matters of international economics? Who da thunk it?

Come on, are you f***in serious?
He's a software developer, not an economist.
Now close this thread.

That's exactly my point.

Why is a hyper-specialized code-monkey like Gavin (who is obviously "not necessarily the most competent person alive when it comes to matters of international economics") pontificating on matters of which he knows little?

Moreover, why would he presume to tie the fate of a resiliency-based FOSS project to his Pollyanna prognostications and crystal-ball gazing?

Many (probably most) Bitcoiners believe we are operating under multiple cascading financial crises, going back to 1913 (Federal Reserve), 1933 (gold confiscation), 1971 (Nixon Shock), etc.:



Compounding these ongoing unresolved/unresolvable crises is the Deep Capture of the economy and most social institutions by Deep State operatives like gavin@tla.gov and hearn@google.mil.

The petro(dollar/euro/yen) are dead paper walking.  The "Rollover" scenario isn't off the table, it's just been kicked down the road like a can.  Of course Gavin thinks putting off difficult work like scaling Bitcoin or abolishing the warfare/welfare state is the is the same thing as solving the crisis...

Gavin isn't even the lead developer.

Thank goodness the remaining core devs know better than to expose Bitcoin to an iffy bet on Bernanke and Obama's economic legacy (BECAUSE NETFLIX^tm).

Financial crisis is over?  Ha-ha, very funny - tell us another one!   

[popovicbit]

I like Gavin.

[NUFCrichard]

But is it over, unemployment is at 4% or something like that, the markets are sky high, people are rich and everything is great.
Repeat that over and over until you believe it!

This is the new normal, debt and money print your way into prosperity.  If figures look bad for you, just massage them.  If people are unemployed, don't count them.. See, everything is fine.

Gavin is not exactly Satoshi is he!

[tvbcof]

This Gavin-bashing smear campaign is pretty sad.

The bashers didn't make the guy into the tool he became.  For my part, I've supported the guy in areas where I feel he deserved support over the years.  Probably more than I should have, but hindsight is 20/20.

[Lauda]

Oh, so the lead developer of a software project is not necessarily the most competent person alive when it comes to matters of international economics? Who da thunk it?

Come on, are you f***in serious?
He's a software developer, not an economist.
Now close this thread.

Exactly. As I've stated this is probably just an attempt to undermine Gavin. I'm pretty sure that a group of people is willing to use just about anything against him.
You can't blame a software developer for not understanding economy, even if that is not the case here.

This Gavin-bashing smear campaign is pretty sad.

The bashers didn't make the guy into the tool he became.  For my part, I've supported the guy in areas where I feel he deserved support over the years.  Probably more than I should have, but hindsight is 20/20.

This.

[iCEBREAKER]

You can't blame a software developer for not understanding economy, even if that is not the case here.

When that software developer seeks to make a (security-centric, financially-sensitive) project dependent upon his economic proclamations and predictions, he should be blamed for that poor design rationale.

[etzeppy]

When that software developer seeks to make a (security-centric, financially-sensitive) project dependent upon his economic proclamations and predictions, he should be blamed for that poor design rationale.

Are you saying that Gavin, who is no longer the lead developer, is changing bitcoin software based upon his view of economics? I would like to understand this better.

[iCEBREAKER]

When that software developer seeks to make a (security-centric, financially-sensitive) project dependent upon his economic proclamations and predictions, he should be blamed for that poor design rationale.

Are you saying that Gavin, who is no longer the lead developer, is changing bitcoin software based upon his view of economics? I would like to understand this better.

Gavin himself announced he is "changing bitcoin software based upon his view of economics."

Specifically, his view that "the financial crisis is over" and that the ensuing period of peace and prosperity will deliver the broadband needed to keep the network diffuse/diverse/defensible/resilient even with much larger blocks.

The irony is that Bitcon was launched in the midst of the (latest, IE 2008) financial crisis and most of its (early) supporters do not think the financial crisis is over (to put it mildly).

[neurotypical]

Oh, so the lead developer of a software project is not necessarily the most competent person alive when it comes to matters of international economics? Who da thunk it?

Come on, are you f***in serious?
He's a software developer, not an economist.
Now close this thread.

That's exactly my point.

Why is a hyper-specialized code-monkey like Gavin (who is obviously "not necessarily the most competent person alive when it comes to matters of international economics") pontificating on matters of which he knows little?

Moreover, why would he presume to tie the fate of a resiliency-based FOSS project to his Pollyanna prognostications and crystal-ball gazing?

Many (probably most) Bitcoiners believe we are operating under multiple cascading financial crises, going back to 1913 (Federal Reserve), 1933 (gold confiscation), 1971 (Nixon Shock), etc.:



Compounding these ongoing unresolved/unresolvable crises is the Deep Capture of the economy and most social institutions by Deep State operatives like gavin@tla.gov and hearn@google.mil.

The petro(dollar/euro/yen) are dead paper walking.  The "Rollover" scenario isn't off the table, it's just been kicked down the road like a can.  Of course Gavin thinks putting off difficult work like scaling Bitcoin or abolishing the warfare/welfare state is the is the same thing as solving the crisis...

Gavin isn't even the lead developer.

Thank goodness the remaining core devs know better than to expose Bitcoin to an iffy bet on Bernanke and Obama's economic legacy (BECAUSE NETFLIX^tm).

Financial crisis is over?  Ha-ha, very funny - tell us another one!  

In theory, yes the petrodollar's deprecation has been insane, but guess what, the government keeps printing dollars, and the rest of the governments all over the world keep accepting dollar, so in practice, the dollar is as alive as always. The question is, for how long can this go on. And some fear that it might go on longer than we can imagine, maybe for longer than our lifetimes. So for I all know, in practice it's not dead paper walking, because if it keeps walking longer than your lifetime.. it is essentially alive.

[hdbuck]

Oh, so the lead developer of a software project is not necessarily the most competent person alive when it comes to matters of international economics? Who da thunk it?

Come on, are you f***in serious?
He's a software developer, not an economist.
Now close this thread.

That's exactly my point.

Why is a hyper-specialized code-monkey like Gavin (who is obviously "not necessarily the most competent person alive when it comes to matters of international economics") pontificating on matters of which he knows little?

Moreover, why would he presume to tie the fate of a resiliency-based FOSS project to his Pollyanna prognostications and crystal-ball gazing?

Many (probably most) Bitcoiners believe we are operating under multiple cascading financial crises, going back to 1913 (Federal Reserve), 1933 (gold confiscation), 1971 (Nixon Shock), etc.:



Compounding these ongoing unresolved/unresolvable crises is the Deep Capture of the economy and most social institutions by Deep State operatives like gavin@tla.gov and hearn@google.mil.

The petro(dollar/euro/yen) are dead paper walking.  The "Rollover" scenario isn't off the table, it's just been kicked down the road like a can.  Of course Gavin thinks putting off difficult work like scaling Bitcoin or abolishing the warfare/welfare state is the is the same thing as solving the crisis...

Gavin isn't even the lead developer.

Thank goodness the remaining core devs know better than to expose Bitcoin to an iffy bet on Bernanke and Obama's economic legacy (BECAUSE NETFLIX^tm).

Financial crisis is over?  Ha-ha, very funny - tell us another one!  

In theory, yes the petrodollar's deprecation has been insane, but guess what, the government keeps printing dollars, and the rest of the governments all over the world keep accepting dollar, so in practice, the dollar is as alive as always. The question is, for how long can this go on. And some fear that it might go on longer than we can imagine, maybe for longer than our lifetimes. So for I all know, in practice it's not dead paper walking, because if it keeps walking longer than your lifetime.. it is essentially alive.

its economical/political/intel/digital/social war everywhere out there.
CHINA vs USA vs RUSSIA vs EU.
WEST vs ORIENT vs BRICS
i'm sure i'll witness some pretty fan shitted things during my lifetime.

same goes for people in their old age that have witnessed WWII, coldwar, oil crisis, internet bubble, 2008, etc....

do not underestimate the domino effect: paper currency for a house of a card world.

[iCEBREAKER]

Oh, so the lead developer of a software project is not necessarily the most competent person alive when it comes to matters of international economics? Who da thunk it?

Come on, are you f***in serious?
He's a software developer, not an economist.
Now close this thread.

This!

It's not just about Gavin's expertise in international economics.

It's about betting Bitcoin's future on Gavin's dubious assumption that "we're about to see an explosion of bandwidth to the home."

Hoping for the best is fine, but we must also plan for the worst.

[shmadz]

Oh, so the lead developer of a software project is not necessarily the most competent person alive when it comes to matters of international economics? Who da thunk it?

Come on, are you f***in serious?
He's a software developer, not an economist.
Now close this thread.

This!

It's not just about Gavin's expertise in international economics.

It's about betting Bitcoin's future on Gavin's dubious assumption that "we're about to see an explosion of bandwidth to the home."

Hoping for the best is fine, but we must also plan for the worst.

worst being gavin and all the scumbags of TBF... oh and google kid hearn.
+ its not like these devs have actually worked on bitcoin core lately anyway.

It's OK, The real bitcoin foundation is hard at work cleaning up the bitcoin code --> http://thebitcoin.foundation/

V 0.5.4 should be coming soon!

[relm9]

He's right that there will be a large increase in home internet speeds soon in the US. A lot of companies are starting to roll out gigabit plans.

[r0ach]

The original post is not really a shock considering most people on Freenode are socially dysfunctional, compartmentalized retard savants in some tiny category like Java programming, then aren't too great at doing other things.  If you asked him the best way to make fried chicken, he might not be able to tell you that either.

[iCEBREAKER]

He's right that there will be a large increase in home internet speeds soon in the US. A lot of companies are starting to roll out gigabit plans.

Gavin didn't specify or even imply anything about "the US."  You've altered his incorrect statement by limiting its scope to overemphasize what little truth it originally contained.

Those gigabit plans are being rolled out in densely populated areas which can and do already support full nodes. 

The bandwidth rich get bandwidth richer, but that does little to improve Bitcoin's diversity/diffusiveness/defensibility/resilience.

As the Petrodollar Empire wanes and threatens implosion, we need a far-flug scattering of full nodes outside the US and its subsidiary satellites/paper statelets/garrisons/unsinkable aircraft carriers.

Gavin, the Chief Economist of Bitcoin, in his office:

[rayhan]

Crazy.The world economy is going crazy. Like we're facing the extremes here. Look at the 2003 meltdown , then 2008, now Greece crisis. Then the chinese economy has reached its best yet. 10$ trillion. Global economy is expanding at a wild pace. Things are calm and being compromised as well. The economists are following different concepts to study today's economy.