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软件增收,硬件疲软:黑莓非复苏而是继续萎缩
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软件增收,硬件疲软:黑莓非复苏而是继续萎缩
June 25, 2015, 03:40:29 PM
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日前,黑莓发布了其截至2015年5月30日的2016财年第一季度财报,其中被业内称为最大的亮点是其软件营收同比暴增150%,达到1.37亿美元,对此有分析称,软件收入的暴增预示着黑莓已经开始复苏,其理由是黑莓正在从之前的硬件向软件转型,且确是获得了增长,事实真的如此简单吗?
众所周知,黑莓向软件转型是程守宗担任黑莓CEO之后采取的重要战略举措。为此,黑莓先后向对手的平台(例如iOS和Android)逐渐开放了自己的应用,例如BBM。同时让自己的硬件设备(采用黑莓系统的手机)支持对手的应用(例如支持亚马逊的Android应用商店)等,而软件的营收也成为业内衡量黑莓能否复苏的主要标志。期间,黑莓的软件营收确实出现了增长,甚至在本财季达到了增长的一个高峰,但从黑莓的整体及其他营收看,这种增长是一种非零和效应的增长。
据黑莓本财季财报显示,其整体营收为6.58亿美元,同比下滑32%左右,其中硬件营收为2.63美元,同比下滑36%;服务营收为2.50亿美元,同比下滑52%。具体到营收数字,即黑莓的硬件和服务收入分别锐减了1.13亿和2.71亿美元(共计3.84亿美元),软件由于之前基数过低,虽然从增长率上看达到了150%,但实际的增长仅为7000万美元。尽管如此,硬件和服务在本财季中依然占据了黑莓整体营收的78%(硬件为40%,服务为38%)。可以说,黑莓目前营收的核心及未来向支撑软件继续转型的关键仍是在硬件和服务。但不幸的是这两个业务正在大幅萎缩。那么问题来了究竟是什么导致黑莓硬件和服务的营收大幅萎缩呢?其与程守宗采取的战略是否有直接或者间接的关系呢?
业内知道,黑莓对于市场和用户的最大价值就在于其完整独立的生态系统及基于其上的安全服务和应用。但程守宗采取的向对手开放应用的策略显然打破了黑莓这种封闭生态系统的优势。且造成了用户体验的大幅下降。例如之前支持亚马逊Android应用商店应用的做法就遭到了业内的诟病。况且亚马逊应用商店本身在体验上就与谷歌Android原生应用存在着差距,那么如此叠加,到用户去体验黑莓应用的时候体验就可想而知了。
其次从成本和营收的角度看,以硬件、服务和软件集成的方式(生态系统)远比单独拆分销售要换算得多,这点在苹果身上得到了很好的体现。在此,也许有人会质疑,黑莓之所以向对手平台开放自己的应用,就是因为自己的硬件和系统不给力,惟有通过软件来促进营收。但就像前述,黑莓优势的体现是硬件、系统、软件、服务等完整生态系统,如果脱离其中的任何一个,其竞争优势都会大打折扣或者失衡,这其实从财报的对比分析已经体现得相当明显。即组成黑莓营收的三大业务,其中的两大支柱业务均大幅下滑。就算是所谓本财季暴涨的软件业务也存在着隐忧和不确定性。只要稍加观察,就会发现,本财季中,黑莓与思科和另一家公司签署了若干专利许可协议,这给黑莓软件收入带来意外提振,不过上述交易掩盖了黑莓核心软件业务的实际表现。即如果不计入这些交易,黑莓当季的软件收入也不及市场预期。
最后从运营的角度看,尽管黑莓的硬件业务仍在亏损,但从其仍占据黑莓营收40%看(甚至高于去年同期39%的占比),硬件依然是支撑其运营的现金流的主要来源,至于高利润率的服务虽然也在萎缩,但从其仅次于硬件的38%的营收占比看,除了与硬件同样提供黑莓未来运营的现金流外,在抵消利润的下滑上也有一定的作用。重要的是,从营收占比的
接近看,黑莓的真正价值用户最看重的还是黑莓完整的生态系统。试想一下,如果未来黑莓推出Android手机的话,也许会有部分用户选择黑莓手机,但黑莓的服务极有可能被放弃,届时,黑莓的优势将会由于之前软件的开放、硬件的放弃(此黑莓非彼黑莓)而完全被割裂,服务自然也会加速萎缩。尽管此前程守宗承诺黑莓会在Android手机上提供原有黑莓级别的安全服务,但谁都清楚,Android系统的开放令其安全性一直相较于封闭的苹果iOS和微软的Windows是软肋,在这种基础上要做到原黑莓级别的安全,难度和结果可想而知。届时对于黑莓以安全主打的服务业务无疑又是一个重击。
综上所述,通过黑莓本财季财报的非零和增长,我们认为,黑莓应该适时反思自己之前(例如不断开放的应用)及未来的(推出Android手机)的所谓开放的软件战略,否则即便是未来黑莓的软件营收在黑莓业务中达到了最高的比例,那么绝对值能有多高?黑莓的另外两个业务将呈现何种表现?从非零和的增长趋势看,黑莓的前景不可想象。
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