Difficulty levels by mid-2013 (end of June)

[bobitza]

For mathematical purposes consider for example the 50-60 mil option as 50 - 59,999,999 ...

[1715584440]

1715584440

[Desolator]

My estimates put it at just over 20.344x harder than right now and that's conservative.  If I had any idea what the difficulty is now, I'd actually multiply it

[crazyates]

By the time we get to the reward half, at block 21000, we will have mined 10,500,000 coins.

Each BFL MR is 1.5TH/s @ ~$30,000 (including shipping). At 12USD/BTC, that's 2,500BTC per BFL MR

If every single coin were spent to purchase a BFL MR, that'd be (10,500,500/2,500) = 4200 MRs.

At 1.5TH/s each, over 4200 units, that'd put our network at 6,300TH/s. Compared to our 23TH/s network, that's ~275x increase.

~3million (current difficulty) x 275 = 825million difficulty.

There's your answer.   

[squid]

By the time we get to the reward half, at block 21000, we will have mined 10,500,000 coins.

Each BFL MR is 1.5TH/s @ ~$30,000 (including shipping). At 12USD/BTC, that's 2,500BTC per BFL MR

If every single coin were spent to purchase a BFL MR, that'd be (10,500,500/2,500) = 4200 MRs.

At 1.5TH/s each, over 4200 units, that'd put our network at 6,300TH/s. Compared to our 23TH/s network, that's ~275x increase.

~3million (current difficulty) x 275 = 825million difficulty.

There's your answer.   

I can't tell if you are trolling crazy!

[Desolator]

And a quantum qubit-based computer would would put the difficulty at an indeterminately high number

[GernMiester]

a gajillion difficulty

[nFast]

Could you please tell me what is your expectations based on?
How did you calculate these estimations?

Do we have any historical database about the diff.-levels in the past to extrapolate it?
(If so, where can I find it?)

[Korbman]

Could you please tell me what is your expectations based on?
How did you calculate these estimations?

People usually have different ways of calculating out their predictions. For my old calculations [urlhttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1L8hKZinune9Cc7tWY9Pmx8J17BOxor7QNQAV03xROOc/edit]back in August[/url], I went to the top 5 largest mining pools and figured out what percentage of the pool's hash rate was generated by miners with fast rigs/setups. I then assumed that these people would be the ones to purchase the fastest ASIC devices. A bit of math later and I had my own prediction of 150TH/s to start, going up to 250TH/s over 6 months or so.

But again, this was back in August. I'll be updating my docs based on all the new info that's come to light within the last 2 months. I imagine my numbers will be a bit higher this time around.

Do we have any historical database about the diff.-levels in the past to extrapolate it?
(If so, where can I find it?)

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc