Chances of a collision

[qwk]

This image should at least be posted once in every "but it's possible for someone to create the same address, right?"-thread:
*snipped image*

The image says 2^256 though
Isn't it just 2^160 for BTC?

2^160 addresses, right. Private keys, no, that's almost 2^256.
No use generating an address if you don't have the private key to it

It is more likely that the Earth is destroyed in the next 5 seconds, than that a collision occur in the next millenium.

[1714117542]

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[qwk]

you always estimate for the unluckiest scenario when you go through all parameters and you find the private key on the last combination.

Basically, you're right, you're probably going to create a collision in a fraction of the time it would take to generate all private keys.
Which would still take longer than the lifetime of our solar system, but might just be in time before hell freezes over.

You also need to factor in consequent lucky permutations! You might guess 1 private address in 40k years, or 3 private addresses one after another!

It could happen. Chances are, you'll be struck by lighting out of a blue sky and at the same time be hit by a meteorite while a chasm in the earth opens up to swallow you whole, just the instant you're trying to spend your newly found wealth. It definitely could happen.

[Bitcoininspace]

As far as I know the chances of it happening are so small that there is a bigger chance of the earth colliding with an asteroid than the addresses are likely to collide with eachother.