First Greece...who next?

[pereira4]

I expected other countries from south Europe like Spain, Portugal, Italy, Malta...Japan is imho different case and those graphs are not applicable for them like for EU countries..

This. That graph looks like it's lacking fundamental countries. Any of the south european countries is in danger to leave the euro, since they are all north's bitches. Japan doesn't owe anyone debt but their own citizens, they have that huge advantage.

[Amph]

I expected other countries from south Europe like Spain, Portugal, Italy, Malta...Japan is imho different case and those graphs are not applicable for them like for EU countries..

This. That graph looks like it's lacking fundamental countries. Any of the south european countries is in danger to leave the euro, since they are all north's bitches. Japan doesn't owe anyone debt but their own citizens, they have that huge advantage.

i'm not sure because the graph show that they have ssome trouble, they are sitll far away from a disaster like greece, their line look stable in the last frame time, so their are approachign a recover, it might be that greece will be the only one leaving the eurozone

and do not forget that the crisis is a bit reduced now, all around the world, for example i know that in italy there is less unemployment now is 0.6% less than the last eyar, so there are small progress

[Don007]

and do not forget that the crisis is a bit reduced now, all around the world, for example i know that in italy there is less unemployment now is 0.6% less than the last eyar, so there are small progress

Many more countries are "recovering" from the crisis indeed. However, here in The Netherlands they speak about "recovering from the first part of the crisis". What I hear is that economics expect another crisis to come / another part of the crisis will come, which might be even worse than the crisis we have experienced yet.

But indeed, I think it's good to see countries are recovering now. We experience the same in The Netherlands now, as it appears to be easier to find a job now.

[bryant.coleman]

Japan doesn't owe anyone debt but their own citizens, they have that huge advantage.

Exactly. Around 95% of the Japanese Government Bonds, by value are owned by Japanese individuals or local institutions. Check this:



But this can be quite dangerous. For example, the Japanese banks hold 9 times their tier 1 capital in Japanese bonds. In case the Japanese government defaults in the interest payments or loan repayments, these banks will immediately become insolvent. Even a slight devaluation of the Japanese Yen (JPY) can be catastrophic to these banks.

[countryfree]

Japan's a strong economy making high quality sophisticated manufactured products which it sells all over the world. It's impossible to compare with Greece which needs heavy restructuring everywhere. Greece used to sell olive oil, but Tunisian oil is cheaper. Greek wine? I've seen cheaper French wine! And wine from Moldova is for nothing, since Putin blocked all exports from the little country.

Maybe Greece doesn't belong to Europe. If it were in Africa, nobody would care about it.

[Erdogan]

Consider what happens to a population that is A) shrinking, while B) the government continues to pile on additional debts to stimulate the economy, which is exactly what Japan is doing with its last-gasp Abenomics economic policies.

Right now more than 60% of the Japanese tax revenues are used for servicing the debt. This is a huge amount, and can't go on for ever. They need to decrease their spending, especially in the defense sector. But right now, I don't think that it is possible, as the threat of a Chinese invasion is looming large.

It is looming because mr. Abe needs it to be looming.

[Erdogan]

Greece have a weak economy linked to a corrupt government.. 

According to me one of the main reason for Greece economy fall out would be hosting the Olympics in 2004, which cost them the much money than the actual estimation of €4.5 billion. Did Greece has taken the right decision when they join the Euro ?

A gigantic waste of sparse capital. Only rodents use the stadiums now.

[bryant.coleman]

A gigantic waste of sparse capital. Only rodents use the stadiums now.

Only a small part of the total expenses (€10 billion) was used for the construction of the stadiums and other sports facilities. Most of it was used to improve the infrastructure. But the problem was that more than half of the amount got stolen by corrupt people, and no one bothered to conduct an investigation then.

[Elwar]

But this can be quite dangerous. For example, the Japanese banks hold 9 times their tier 1 capital in Japanese bonds. In case the Japanese government defaults in the interest payments or loan repayments, these banks will immediately become insolvent. Even a slight devaluation of the Japanese Yen (JPY) can be catastrophic to these banks.

This could be worse than Greece. Greece doesn't pay the IMF and the IMF will just have to deal with it.

Japan doesn't pay the banks and pensions and it hits its own citizens. Double hit.

[Don007]

A gigantic waste of sparse capital. Only rodents use the stadiums now.

Only a small part of the total expenses (€10 billion) was used for the construction of the stadiums and other sports facilities. Most of it was used to improve the infrastructure. But the problem was that more than half of the amount got stolen by corrupt people, and no one bothered to conduct an investigation then.

I agree with you on that corrupt part. Yesterday I heard the King of the Netherlands had planned a holiday to Greece. However, in order to assure his safety, an extra piece of land had te be bought near his holiday house worth $35.000. However, as soon as they heard this land was going to be bought for the security of our King, they suddently had to pay almost half a million euro's for the very same piece of land... Corruption!

[Erdogan]

A gigantic waste of sparse capital. Only rodents use the stadiums now.

Only a small part of the total expenses (€10 billion) was used for the construction of the stadiums and other sports facilities. Most of it was used to improve the infrastructure. But the problem was that more than half of the amount got stolen by corrupt people, and no one bothered to conduct an investigation then.

I agree with you on that corrupt part. Yesterday I heard the King of the Netherlands had planned a holiday to Greece. However, in order to assure his safety, an extra piece of land had te be bought near his holiday house worth $35.000. However, as soon as they heard this land was going to be bought for the security of our King, they suddently had to pay almost half a million euro's for the very same piece of land... Corruption!

Corruption is the one-egged twin of governments.

Still, the capital used for the games were drawn from the people in the three usual ways that a welfare state is paid: Taxes, expansion of the money volume and galloping loans. And it was not used on the most prosperity creating way. It never is, with the government. The market is required to do that.

[Q7]

The question is, if Greece managed to leave euro, that could mean other countries which are also in debt can also follow suit and do the same. Eventually when more countries follow the same action, it can only mean that the whole union will collapse. These has been projected to happen for some time now and I see no other solution.

[Don007]

The question is, if Greece managed to leave euro, that could mean other countries which are also in debt can also follow suit and do the same. Eventually when more countries follow the same action, it can only mean that the whole union will collapse. These has been projected to happen for some time now and I see no other solution.

Maybe, in the end, that's the best solution: a collapse of the whole union. Although it's hard to say, but I think many (wealthy) countries in the EU think they should never went for the Union in the first place. Many people here in the Netherlands argue that we should have kept the Gulden instead of going for the Euro. This has huge advantages, but sure, it also has disadvantages.. I don't know what would have been the best.

[ifightformerkel]

The question is, if Greece managed to leave euro, that could mean other countries which are also in debt can also follow suit and do the same. Eventually when more countries follow the same action, it can only mean that the whole union will collapse. These has been projected to happen for some time now and I see no other solution.

You are right, when after greece another country will left the euro than its over.
But it will be a new beginning, every country will choose again his currency,
it will be the best way in my opinion like it 15 years ago was in europe.

[bryant.coleman]

This could be worse than Greece. Greece doesn't pay the IMF and the IMF will just have to deal with it.
Japan doesn't pay the banks and pensions and it hits its own citizens. Double hit.

In this case, Japan might be having an advantage when compared to Greece. Greece has no freedom on extending the deadlines, or lowering the interest rates. On the other hand, Japan is having the advantage of having the freedom in delaying the pension payments (since both the pension fund and the debt issuing body is controlled by the Japanese government), or paying only a part of it.

[Cearea11]

The question is, if Greece managed to leave euro, that could mean other countries which are also in debt can also follow suit and do the same. Eventually when more countries follow the same action, it can only mean that the whole union will collapse. These has been projected to happen for some time now and I see no other solution.

Maybe, in the end, that's the best solution: a collapse of the whole union. Although it's hard to say, but I think many (wealthy) countries in the EU think they should never went for the Union in the first place. Many people here in the Netherlands argue that we should have kept the Gulden instead of going for the Euro. This has huge advantages, but sure, it also has disadvantages.. I don't know what would have been the best.

And If the whole union will collapse, USA will rule on us. We really need to have a UE, with same laws, where goods can circulate without any fee. Only in that way we can improve our countries. If we come back to be single states, USA and other powers will trade only where is more convenient. The countries with higher debt will go in default and they will buy industries, societies for a bit of money. So, in my opinion if Greece go out from UE, we need to be more united to face this crysis.

[Erdogan]

Japan did an economical harakiri, it started with mr abe.

Of the three arrows of his plan, they have only executed one; expansion of the money volume. Nothing to see or hear of structual reforms, a politician phrase for starting to do value creation in stead of value destruction. It was probably futile anyway, since they would rely on centrally planned reforms in stead of the market.

The money volume expansion, with the necessarily connected zero interest rate policy, distorts the capital structure (the factories, the farms, the shops, the bulldozers and the trucks), therefore destroys the value generation capacity of the economy. Yes they have no babies and a bunch of old people doing nothing, that is the consequence more than the reason. The tsunami and the triple destruction of nature; earth, air and sea, was a real problem that set them back.

The second arrow was fiscal stimulus, I take that to mean publicly funded and wasted, centrally planned, capital investments. I think they just increased the value added tax.

No, it was a harakiri, they are bleeding, soon to exhale their last breath.

[EternalWingsofGod]

japan situation is different they are not under a central authority, they are under their own istituion, their crisis can be fixed like greece would fix their economic issue when it will leave europe, on the other hand, italy seems to be the third that is akin to greece, i think they have a bigger chance to be the next one

I agree with tineye on this one Japan is able to handle its debt because its internal, if Greece gets the international lenders off its back and defaults it has a better chance at managing internal debt to Greek citizens under a Soverign owned central bank than under the current model its reliant on.
That said it will be painful for a few years akin to grabbing a leech of your skin and pulling it off but I presume they will make a relatively quick economic recovery.

It is interesting that a good chunk of Greece's debt is in part due to military spending and buying defective goods from Germany.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/apr/19/greece-military-spending-debt-crisis
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-greeces-military-budget-is-so-high-2015-6

[bojan92]

In Europe there are a lot of countries facing with the problems that are now on stage in Greece. Italy and Spain have very big problems dealing with their economy crisis. I think one of them will be the next Greece. Hope it won't happen, there are a lot of people who will suffer if this happens.

[faridkifly]

I can't predict who is the next.
But I hope greece is the first and the last..