BTC guild vs deepbit

[jasonk]

First off, I've been mining for about 4 weeks now.

I started off at deepbit, but then switched to BTC guild when deepbit had the DDOS a few days ago.

During the same difficulty level (current level) I've been getting about 10-20% less over at BTC guild than I've been getting @ deepbit.

I've not noticed a single minute of downtime, yet I've noticed downtime at deepbit, but not much.

What I did as a test is:

I left my 2x 5850 rig (640M hashes) @ BTC guild  for the last 24hrs.  It generated about 1.25 BTC including unconfirmed blocks.

I put my 2x 5830 rig (550M hashes) @ deepbit for the last 24hrs.  It generated about 1.49 BTC.

So deepbit wins, even though my mining rig @ BTC guild has more than a 15% faster hash rate.

When I had both rigs there for 3 days prior, I was only getting 2.2 BTC a day average.  When I was at deepbit averaging 2.4-3 BTC at the same difficulty level.

I know there is some "luck" to mining, but with 4 days of testing and getting poor results at BTC guild, I'm quite skeptical...

Are we being scammed at BTC Guild?  Thoughts?

[1713574865]

1713574865

[1713574865]

1713574865

[speeder]

I think you need to mine at each pool for at least 7 days to have some reasonable average.

[ottodv]

I had noticed a similar thing between BTC mine and BTC guild over the past 3 days. Both pools had a similar hashrate over that period (around 400 MH/s), yet BTC mine usually showed some 4 more unconfirmed blocks found than BTC guild. Usually 14 vs 10. That's a huge difference.

Earlier today it equalized (btc mine got unlucky with a block that took 7 hours), but now it's back again, with BTC mine showing 13 blocks awaiting maturity with 407 MH/s while BTC guild shows only 10 blocks awaiting maturity with 490 MH/s (i.e. 20% higher hashrate but 25% less blocks found).

I thought for a while that both pools might calculate the Hashrate differently, but jasonk's post above makes that unlikely.

Is BTC guild unlucky or BTC mine lucky? What are the odds of a 4 day persistent difference at these hashrates?

[IlbiStarz]

You've just been unlucky.
I've been getting more than before when I was at deepbit...
0% fee is better than 3% on paper, so eventually, you will get more at BTCguild.

[Nythain]

sooooooooooooo tired of this.

Been mining for 4 weeks now eh. Thats about how long it takes to get a decent accurate gauge of how much a pool is gonna make you. 24 hours is NOT an appropriate time frame to measure pool earnings.

[eleuthria]

Your comparison is occuring during a period of bad luck.  We've been going at 20-30% above average for this difficulty in the past 48 hours, and close to average prior to that.  This is standard variance and can hit any pool including DeepBit (and has in the past).  If you had tried about 2 weeks ago at BTC Guild we were averaging about 30% -under- the average for the difficulty.

Larger pools do not eliminate variance, it only helps smooth the effects of variance.  The only relevant factors when comparing pools are:  Fee %, Stale %, Downtime %.  Those are the only 3 items that can be measured which have an effect on your payouts, everything else is chance.

[jasonk]

Your comparison is occuring during a period of bad luck.  We've been going at 20-30% above average for this difficulty in the past 48 hours, and close to average prior to that.  This is standard variance and can hit any pool including DeepBit (and has in the past).  If you had tried about 2 weeks ago at BTC Guild we were averaging about 30% -under- the average for the difficulty.

Larger pools do not eliminate variance, it only helps smooth the effects of variance.  The only relevant factors when comparing pools are:  Fee %, Stale %, Downtime %.  Those are the only 3 items that can be measured which have an effect on your payouts, everything else is chance.

In that case you may want to consider posting the pools "luck" stats in an easy to find place.  Deepbit posts it + or -%.

[Nythain]

what good does a luck stat do? and what would it really say that the block stats page doesnt already say?

[eleuthria]

Your comparison is occuring during a period of bad luck.  We've been going at 20-30% above average for this difficulty in the past 48 hours, and close to average prior to that.  This is standard variance and can hit any pool including DeepBit (and has in the past).  If you had tried about 2 weeks ago at BTC Guild we were averaging about 30% -under- the average for the difficulty.

Larger pools do not eliminate variance, it only helps smooth the effects of variance.  The only relevant factors when comparing pools are:  Fee %, Stale %, Downtime %.  Those are the only 3 items that can be measured which have an effect on your payouts, everything else is chance.

In that case you may want to consider posting the pools "luck" stats in an easy to find place.  Deepbit posts it + or -%.

I'll be making that a part of block statistics shortly.  For the record, our luck has been the following:

Past 24 hours:  546k average per block = 25.5% bad luck
Past 48 hours:  587k average per block = 35.1% bad luck
Past 72 hours:  567k average per block = 30.4% bad luck
Past 96 hours:  527k average per block = 21.2% bad luck
Since current difficulty of 434882:  481k average per block = 10.6% bad luck

So if your time frame was the last 4 days, the payouts were 21.2% worse than the expected average for your machines.  If it was the past 2 days, it was 35.1% worse.  For comparison, our average shares at the last difficulty (244112) was 212437, which is 13% ahead of expectations.  Meaning the average between this difficulty and last difficulty, the pool is still ahead by about 2.4% (this is overly simplified and wrong to just compare two luck percentages for rounds which vary in length, but the point behind it is still valid).

[ottodv]

So if your time frame was the last 4 days, the payouts were 21.2% worse than the expected average

OK, that would explain my observations, assuming BTC mine was also 20% luckier than expected average over the same period. Thanks for clearing that up.

BTW, I am considering giving BTC guild a try, it seems very detailed and open. Hope your unlucky streak ends soon...

[jasonk]

Your comparison is occuring during a period of bad luck.  We've been going at 20-30% above average for this difficulty in the past 48 hours, and close to average prior to that.  This is standard variance and can hit any pool including DeepBit (and has in the past).  If you had tried about 2 weeks ago at BTC Guild we were averaging about 30% -under- the average for the difficulty.

Larger pools do not eliminate variance, it only helps smooth the effects of variance.  The only relevant factors when comparing pools are:  Fee %, Stale %, Downtime %.  Those are the only 3 items that can be measured which have an effect on your payouts, everything else is chance.

In that case you may want to consider posting the pools "luck" stats in an easy to find place.  Deepbit posts it + or -%.

I'll be making that a part of block statistics shortly.  For the record, our luck has been the following:

Past 24 hours:  546k average per block = 25.5% bad luck
Past 48 hours:  587k average per block = 35.1% bad luck
Past 72 hours:  567k average per block = 30.4% bad luck
Past 96 hours:  527k average per block = 21.2% bad luck
Since current difficulty of 434882:  481k average per block = 10.6% bad luck

So if your time frame was the last 4 days, the payouts were 21.2% worse than the expected average for your machines.  If it was the past 2 days, it was 35.1% worse.  For comparison, our average shares at the last difficulty (244112) was 212437, which is 13% ahead of expectations.  Meaning the average between this difficulty and last difficulty, the pool is still ahead by about 2.4% (this is overly simplified and wrong to just compare two luck percentages for rounds which vary in length, but the point behind it is still valid).

Thanks.  I'm still new to this, and I was not aware that there was such a HUGE difference in luck from day to day.  I just assumed it would be about 10% max for a decent size pool.

In addition to posting the average "luck factor" I also suggested in an email that you add 24hr BTC generated stats to the my account page.

[Litt]

Everytime I see a comparison of pools in terms of payment output I just wanna punch them through the screen.. j/k 

No seriously go find a wall and run to it fast with eyes closed.

[ottodv]

No seriously go find a wall and run to it fast with eyes closed.

Thanks for the helpful comment.

I was not aware that there was such a HUGE difference in luck from day to day.

Me neither, I thought 40% difference between two pools was rather extreme with such huge hashrates.
Is there a tool online where you can calculate those probabilities?

[Nythain]

I was not aware that there was such a HUGE difference in luck from day to day.

Me neither, I thought 40% difference between two pools was rather extreme with such huge hashrates.
Is there a tool online where you can calculate those probabilities?

Luck is Luck, it doesn't obey laws of physics. To give an example, we just had a 2 million share round that lasted like 5 or 6 hours, which was then followed by three rounds in less than an hour, which was in turn followed by another 2 million share round... there's no telling when these things are gonna happen, they just happen, and they can happen to the biggest fastest bestest of the best.

On a related note, even with the incredibly unlucky 2million share rounds, we're still only slightly longer than average overall on our estimated block time and shares. Nothing that another couple 10 minute rounds can't remedy.

[jkminkov]

my 3 months worth of stats show that I got 296 btc for reporting back only 5 blocks

[jasonk]

my 3 months worth of stats show that I got 296 btc for reporting back only 5 blocks

And I'm @ 3 blocks and 82BTC @ deepbit.  I guess I've been a lucky addition to the pool. 

[bcpokey]

Yeah it's pretty interesting to see how big an effect luck can have. Deepbit got unlucky with a ddos (that's a form of luck I suppose) and then a wave of low block generation (even accounting for reduced hashrate).

BTCGuild had some awesome output for a few days when I first hopped on a while back to test it out, was breaking blocks like nobodies business at 200GHash/sec, and over the past few days got reamed by bad luck producing poorly with 500GHash/sec. If one were really obsessive they could monitor pool luck trends and hop their miners following the luck, but there's no real way to know when it will happen and how long it will last.

I like BTCGuilds owner (good sense of humor, very responsive and open) and pool features, and I like deepbits owner (very smart helpful active member of the community who implemented a ton of great features and helped pave the way for pool competition). Either pool is a great choice, as is btcmine and whatever. It's good to stay vigilant but for now there's no reason to suspect pool operators of any misconduct.

[ottodv]

Is there a tool online where you can calculate those probabilities?

Luck is Luck, it doesn't obey laws of physics

My initial observation, got me interested in these odds. For instance what the chance of a pool with a certain hashrate underperforming or overperforming by say 10%? Or 20%. I'd just like to get a better feel for these things.

BTW, switched to mining on BTCGuild last night. :-)

[kodess]

Is there a tool online where you can calculate those probabilities?

Luck is Luck, it doesn't obey laws of physics

My initial observation, got me interested in these odds. For instance what the chance of a pool with a certain hashrate underperforming or overperforming by say 10%? Or 20%. I'd just like to get a better feel for these things.

BTW, switched to mining on BTCGuild last night. :-)

lucky, this night had amazing rounds on the guild