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Author Topic: wtf @ the current state of the bitcoin economy  (Read 7238 times)
afterburner229
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June 02, 2011, 09:31:44 PM
 #21

Next step I will proof, also NOR kind & volume of goods, being traded via BTC directly, is growing exponentially. Stand by..

This should not be possible.

An exponential component is what you should mean, and that is very likely in a situation where new people continue to learn about Bitcoin and subsequently start using it. Of course, exponential growth will not continue after Bitcoin becomes macroscopic, which could be within months if things go on the way they are going now. However, you have no reason to expect price or the amount of Bitcoins traded to grow exponentially because of that. Currently, we have speculators -- later, we want traders! The transition will change how reach and price are linked.

Your reasoning assumes Bitcoin behaves like a Ponzi scheme. This need not be in the long run, and the profit margins allow speculators to wait patiently for quite a while. You must take into account that many speculators estimate the potential target price and success probability before buying. Those two multiplied are not growing exponentially just because the number of users is.

You misunderstand me. I want to know just number of bitcoin users as function of time. Because bitcoin society is too small, compared with typical large country, and bitcoin is the currency, not a telescope or vynil disc, etc, business field for the bitcoin MUST be comparable with typical large country, or even with the total world.

So actually, exchange volume, difficulty algorithm, etc. are just INSTRUMENTS for me to measure (estimate) number of bitcoin users as function of time.

SHORTLY: is bitcoin society << total world? Yes. is bitcoin society growing exp (+t)? No. => It will fail @ 100% probability.
Will professional gamblers win? Yes, even if bitcoin society will fail.

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stic.man
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June 02, 2011, 10:11:18 PM
 #22

do you think that all these new people d/ling the program and posting in the forums are just bystanders?  The fact that 60% of all BTC clients d/led occurred only in the last month alone isn't exponential?
asdf
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June 03, 2011, 09:45:44 AM
 #23

growth of bitcoin is proportional to it's population size = exponential growth.

The more people that know about bitcoin (size), the more people will find out about bitcoin (growth).

This is the nature of a viral entity. Of course, it will reach a saturation point because the population is finite, but for now, at least it's approximately exponential.

Bitcoin growth is so obviously exponential.
afterburner229
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June 03, 2011, 11:48:43 AM
 #24

growth of bitcoin is proportional to it's population size = exponential growth.

The more people that know about bitcoin (size), the more people will find out about bitcoin (growth).

This is the nature of a viral entity. Of course, it will reach a saturation point because the population is finite, but for now, at least it's approximately exponential.

Bitcoin growth is so obviously exponential.

No problem. In this case the only parameter we should monitor - total daily volume in BTC, being circuited upon all BTC exchanges. I proof, if this volume is const, bitcoin society will freeze or collapse much before the saturation point you mentioned. I proof, time interval for such a freeze/collapse is controlled by exponential parameter: exp (t/t0), where t0 is the time, for bitcoin society to grow in e=2.71828.. times.

So, the faster is society growing, while average daily exchange volume = const, the faster society will freeze/collapse.

We observe: average daily exchange volume = const for 2 months..


stic.man
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June 03, 2011, 12:35:10 PM
 #25

hey why don't you measure the volume in dollars instead of fucking coins, i can afford $100, doesn't matter if thats 70 coins or 7 coins.

afterburner229
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June 03, 2011, 12:54:23 PM
 #26

hey why don't you measure the volume in dollars instead of fucking coins, i can afford $100, doesn't matter if thats 70 coins or 7 coins.



Read my post

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=11245.msg160266#msg160266

again.

I've measured all the volumes. In assumption the bitcoin society is growing exponetially in number of users, it is sufficient to observe average daily volume in BTC: if it remains const, society will die, on time interval, roughly the same, as time interval of rate ($/BTC) growing.

Because BTC volume is const for 2 months, april & may 2011, if we suppose, number of users is growing according number of bitcoin client downloads, or according rate ($/BTC) growing, society should be dead already. We observe - No. => number of users is NOT growing exponetially, as fast, as number of downloads, or rate ($/BTC), or mining difficulty (all these have roughly the same parameter t0 in exp (t/t0)).

The entire picture is obvious: there are some 1000-10000 total bitcoin users world-wide including all miners, exchange players, sellers & buyers, and the are some 100000-300000 newbies who just 'play the fool' with bitcoins.

Newbies DO just 'play the fool', because if they will start seriously, bitcoin society will die almost immediately.

bitstarter
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June 03, 2011, 10:11:36 PM
 #27

simple, solution release more bitcoins!  Grin

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Astro
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June 03, 2011, 11:18:23 PM
 #28

Hey everyone, I've participated in the bitcoin economy for a whole 72 hours!  Let me tell you why it's going to fail....
benjamindees
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June 04, 2011, 08:45:13 AM
 #29

Newbies DO just 'play the fool', because if they will start seriously, bitcoin society will die almost immediately.

The Bitcoin "society" grows in fits and starts.  What happens is that newbies don't jump in right away.  They wait and lurk until they feel comfortable.  Then they see a reason to buy in -- their peers start to do so, or there is some press exposure, or some opportunity, or just general optimism.  Then they all jump in at once, and the price skyrockets.  Rising price triggers early-adopters to cash out, or to make purchases, and new miners to join.  Purchases attract new vendors to open shop.  And the Bitcoin society steadily grows, a little at a time.

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asdf
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June 04, 2011, 11:10:49 PM
 #30

growth of bitcoin is proportional to it's population size = exponential growth.

The more people that know about bitcoin (size), the more people will find out about bitcoin (growth).

This is the nature of a viral entity. Of course, it will reach a saturation point because the population is finite, but for now, at least it's approximately exponential.

Bitcoin growth is so obviously exponential.

No problem. In this case the only parameter we should monitor - total daily volume in BTC, being circuited upon all BTC exchanges. I proof, if this volume is const, bitcoin society will freeze or collapse much before the saturation point you mentioned. I proof, time interval for such a freeze/collapse is controlled by exponential parameter: exp (t/t0), where t0 is the time, for bitcoin society to grow in e=2.71828.. times.

So, the faster is society growing, while average daily exchange volume = const, the faster society will freeze/collapse.

We observe: average daily exchange volume = const for 2 months..

"total daily volume" - how is this a measure of the population size of the economy? Answer: it's not. Your premise is flawed.

The following figures show exponential growth:
No. forum users
No. downloads.
USD exchange rate
difficulty
google trends
transactions per hour

Daily volume doesn't mean shit, unless you measure it in USD.
cloud9
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June 04, 2011, 11:25:23 PM
 #31

"total daily volume" - how is this a measure of the population size of the economy? Answer: it's not. Your premise is flawed.

The following figures show exponential growth:
No. forum users
No. downloads.
USD exchange rate
difficulty
google trends
transactions per hour

Daily volume doesn't mean shit, unless you measure it in USD.

Have common sense reined supreme over misapplied academics?

Disclaimer:  Postings of Cloud9 are only individual views of opinion and/or musings and/or hypothesisses.  On a non-authoritative, peer-to-peer public forum, you do not need permission from Cloud9 to derive your own conclusions or opinions, so please do.  Calculations and assumptions to be verified.
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