Shipped ASICs = Bitcoin goes down?

[Come-from-Beyond]

When BFL ships ASICs, a lot of BTC will be mined during short period of time. And difficulty is not allowed to rise more than 4x times, so next 2016 blocks will be mined fast as well, and next ones too. And a lot of miners will try to cash out to get money spent for the ASICs. Will all this lead to big drop in Bitcoin price? Perhaps it's better to stop hoarding of expensive bitcoins and wait for cheap ones?

[1715032595]

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[1715032595]

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[maqifrnswa]

When BFL ships ASICs, a lot of BTC will be mined during short period of time. And difficulty is not allowed to rise more than 4x times, so next 2016 blocks will be mined fast as well, and next ones too. And a lot of miners will try to cash out to get money spent for the ASICs. Will all this lead to big drop in Bitcoin price? Perhaps it's better to stop hoarding of expensive bitcoins and wait for cheap ones?

good point. back of envelope calculations:

10million bitcoins exist, in 2k blocks we should add another 10k BTC. so if we mine at double the normal speed, then we'd get an extra 10k BTC than we'd normally get. Assuming market cap stays constant we'd see a proportional drop in value. 10k/10m = 0.1% drop in value. If we mine at 1000% faster rate, we'd see a ~1% drop in value.

[Come-from-Beyond]

There are less than 100k BTC at MtGox. But if u think ASICs won't change the price a lot...

[Luno]

There is a possibility that will happen. It will be the electricity cost of running an ASIC that sets the bottom price. Miners might get worried and sell their ASIC rigs, if they fear not being able recuperate their costs. The price drops if difficulty does not rise enough, if to many GPU miners quit.

[proudhon]

When BFL ships ASICs, a lot of BTC will be mined during short period of time. And difficulty is not allowed to rise more than 4x times, so next 2016 blocks will be mined fast as well, and next ones too. And a lot of miners will try to cash out to get money spent for the ASICs. Will all this lead to big drop in Bitcoin price? Perhaps it's better to stop hoarding of expensive bitcoins and wait for cheap ones?

I've been saying this for a very long time.  The coming weeks and month are likely going to be a rough awakening for lots of folks around here.

[byronbb]

I think it is very possible.

[mb300sd]

Its also possible that the reward drop and ASIC hit at about the same time so supply would stay the same with 5-minute, 25btc blocks. As difficulty rises, supply will drop.

[arklan]

When BFL ships ASICs, a lot of BTC will be mined during short period of time. And difficulty is not allowed to rise more than 4x times, so next 2016 blocks will be mined fast as well, and next ones too. And a lot of miners will try to cash out to get money spent for the ASICs. Will all this lead to big drop in Bitcoin price? Perhaps it's better to stop hoarding of expensive bitcoins and wait for cheap ones?

I've been saying this for a very long time.  The coming weeks and month are likely going to be a rough awakening for lots of folks around here.

it's going a bumpy ride, as some actress once said in some movie or other.

[smoothie]

When BFL ships ASICs, a lot of BTC will be mined during short period of time. And difficulty is not allowed to rise more than 4x times, so next 2016 blocks will be mined fast as well, and next ones too. And a lot of miners will try to cash out to get money spent for the ASICs. Will all this lead to big drop in Bitcoin price? Perhaps it's better to stop hoarding of expensive bitcoins and wait for cheap ones?

Translation: "Sell your bitcoins while the price is 'HIGH' so I can buy them cuz I'm damn impatient."

If you keep in mind that there are tons of fiat all over the world looking for a home and only 10 Million btc so far....the price of a WHOLE bitcoin can go very high very fast.

Stop wishing bitcoins are $5 or even $6.

[Fjordbit]

You should buy now. By the end of October, the price of bitcoin will be closer to $15 as an attempt to price in the reward halving (I guarantee you it is not priced in fully yet). ASICs won't cause the price to do down, ASIC miners will hold their coins for after the inflation drop. Then after the drop in inflation, there might be a temporary move back to $13-$15, but it will start moving to $30 by at the latest mid summer next year.

Source: my ass, but it's how I see things panning out. If you wait for a drop now, you'll never get in the game.

[maqifrnswa]

There are less than 100k BTC at MtGox. But if u think ASICs won't change the price a lot...

what was wrong with the math? what's your economic model backing the drop? Look at the market depth:
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html

If 10k bitcoins were sold all at once simultaneously with no market rebound would drop the price to $11.60.

I think ASICS won't change the price a lot and presented pretty solid data backing it up, where's your data?

[Come-from-Beyond]

Stop wishing bitcoins are $5 or even $6.

Heh. I'm looking forward for good ole $2...

[smoothie]

Stop wishing bitcoins are $5 or even $6.

Heh. I'm looking forward for good ole $2...

Okay see you at $100+. Then you can buy higher.

 

[proudhon]

Stop wishing bitcoins are $5 or even $6.

Heh. I'm looking forward for good ole $2...

Okay see you at $100+. Then you can buy higher.

 

C'mon, there's a much better chance the price will be $2 sometime in the next, say, 6 months than $100.

[Grouver (BtcBalance)]

I wonder what will happen with the price when the bounty gets cut in half.
This is gonna play when the ASICs are shipped for about a  month.

[btctraderr]

All of this conjecture assumes *all* (or a vast majority) of miners (on ASICS) will cash out immediately cause a 1% drop in value, a blip on the radar of the volatility that will be happening in the next few months.

[TTBit]

In the CPU mining days when GPU software was just being developed, there wasn't much talk of the price going down, or that it would be bad for bitcoin. Why is it different this time?

[Come-from-Beyond]

In the CPU mining days when GPU software was just being developed, there wasn't much talk of the price going down, or that it would be bad for bitcoin. Why is it different this time?

Coz ppl already had GPUs. Now they invested money into ASICs.

[maqifrnswa]

Conversely, will there be a sharp rise in Bitcoin when the reward gets halved? If temporarily doubling the output for one week will cause a crash, imagine the rally that permanently halving the reward will cause! EDIT: *sarcasm*

[arklan]

Conversely, will there be a sharp rise in Bitcoin when the reward gets halved? If temporarily doubling the output for one week will cause a crash, imagine the rally that permanently halving the reward will cause! EDIT: *sarcasm*

actually, since the reward halving will basically cut the supply of new coin in half, (meaning those miners who save their earned BTC now will still save it, those who cash it out through and exchange will still do so, etc) it very well could drive the price higher, even with no change in demand for coin. though since the demand is more or less constantly growing...

[Photon939]

I think a large portion of the effect ASICs will have on the market will depend on BFL's shipping tables. If they ship out a huge order of several TH/s at once, it is likely that we will see a much larger market fluctuation than if they only ship out a few units at a time.

Add into that mess the effect of the mining subsidy halving and you have (IMO) too many unknowns to have any real idea of how the market will behave.

[phatsphere]

... and don't forget, the usual other factors. the more the economy problems get worse, the more will invest into bitcoin - not too much, but many investing just a bit also counts. 

[IMakeComps]

Why are we assuming that difficulty jumps have any effect on price?

[Transisto]

Why are we assuming that difficulty jumps have any effect on price?

Cost more to produce, increased security, ... Among others !!!

[FreeMoney]

In the CPU mining days when GPU software was just being developed, there wasn't much talk of the price going down, or that it would be bad for bitcoin. Why is it different this time?

Video cards have value outside of bitcoin.  low risk of lost investment if bitcoin plummets.  With BFL, i suspect people will want to get their money out of the hardware asap... but im sure some of them are in for the long haul. 

For a lot of people getting their money means getting bitcoins.

[smoothie]

Stop wishing bitcoins are $5 or even $6.

Heh. I'm looking forward for good ole $2...

Okay see you at $100+. Then you can buy higher.

 

C'mon, there's a much better chance the price will be $2 sometime in the next, say, 6 months than $100.

Using what measuring stick? The fed is printing $40 billion each month at least. You think perhaps the value of a limited currency would go up and not down.

[OgNasty]

Re: Shipped ASICs = Bitcoin goes down?

I don't think ASICs will have an effect on BTC price.  The block reward halving will outweigh the effect of coins being produced at a faster rate between difficulty jumps.