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Author Topic: Could Monero replace Bitcoin soon?  (Read 33642 times)
ArticMine
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August 26, 2016, 08:17:13 PM
 #201

...
Do you think that world powers will allow to use XMR on their territory ?
They will alow if they control it. When switzland doesn want to release info about some money transfers then some sad men
comes to Switzland and they have convinced them to make changes i guess they had "good" arguments.
Today because of money loudering you have more restricted laws when it will be needed all XMR exchanges will go down
they will impose good law and they will shut it down. XMR would exist p2p but you wont get any fiat window for it that will couse hard drop in volume.
If you want challenge a biggest superpowers and help terrorists with XMR you are on loose side.
And big Russia and China they don't want to much freedom for their people and XMR is problem for them too.
If XMR will be popular in terrorists group it will be shut down.

When it comes to the US Government I learned at a very young age that the best source of information with respect to their laws and regulations is the US Government itself, which is why I quote their guidance on the subject of crypto currencies. The same can also be said for many governments around the world.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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generalizethis
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August 26, 2016, 08:18:35 PM
 #202

...

Do you think that world powers will allow to use XMR on their territory ?
They will alow if they control it. When switzland doesn want to release info about some money transfers then some sad men
comes to Switzland and they have convinced them to make changes i guess they had "good" arguments.
Today because of money loudering you have more restricted laws when it will be needed all XMR exchanges will go down
they will impose good law and they will shut it down. XMR would exist p2p but you wont get any fiat window for it that will couse hard drop in volume.
If you want challenge a biggest superpowers and help terrorists with XMR you are on loose side.
And big Russia and China they don't want to much freedom for their people and XMR is problem for them too.
If XMR will be popular in terrorists group it will be shut down.

I don't want to be on the loose side of anything. Well, maybe Jenna Jameson (such digression)...

Hacking is illegal almost everywhere, but it happens almost everywhere -- as long as other cryptocurrencies are legal, it will be pretty damn easy to exchange it for value without the help of government sponsored exchanges. They'll have to ban them all to have any great effect, and even then, it's doubtful they'll get the controls you are hoping/not-hoping(?) for.

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August 26, 2016, 11:33:11 PM
 #203

...

Do you think that world powers will allow to use XMR on their territory ?
They will alow if they control it. When switzland doesn want to release info about some money transfers then some sad men
comes to Switzland and they have convinced them to make changes i guess they had "good" arguments.
Today because of money loudering you have more restricted laws when it will be needed all XMR exchanges will go down
they will impose good law and they will shut it down. XMR would exist p2p but you wont get any fiat window for it that will couse hard drop in volume.
If you want challenge a biggest superpowers and help terrorists with XMR you are on loose side.
And big Russia and China they don't want to much freedom for their people and XMR is problem for them too.
If XMR will be popular in terrorists group it will be shut down.

I don't want to be on the loose side of anything. Well, maybe Jenna Jameson (such digression)...

Hacking is illegal almost everywhere, but it happens almost everywhere -- as long as other cryptocurrencies are legal, it will be pretty damn easy to exchange it for value without the help of government sponsored exchanges. They'll have to ban them all to have any great effect, and even then, it's doubtful they'll get the controls you are hoping/not-hoping(?) for.

Exactly. Can't make ideas or knowledge illegal.  Therefore if you know how to encrypt and code cryptocurrencies... well you get the idea.
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August 27, 2016, 03:05:33 AM
 #204

Yea if it will be so popular in terrorist world then all exchanges based in civilized countries will be force to stop trading it.
All people who will have open xmr wallet will be juge as terrorist and you will see that masses 10 person per day able to use XMR.
Do you think that any government will allow such tool to exist,they will put in prison for having XMR client in computer.
You will see liquid of XMR hmm bugattis which are sold once per year at dealer if goverment will ban such coin.
Terrorism is good ecscuse for them for more control in USA currently you can go to jail without court for forever because they suspect that you are terrorist.
If they target XMR as terrorist money GL to that coin. Dev will land in prison as well as it was with guys who was developing disk encryption.
They claim that disk encryption is weapon and he went to jail Cheesy.
You won't hide with your xmr in hole dark net is nice marketing stuff but it can be really death blow at end for coin.

PS: A day when XMR would be popular in terrorist community its best day to sell IMO.

unbelievable... all the exact same arguments that were used in 2012 and 2013 against bitcoin are now used against monero...

very very very bullish!

best regards


Aha, it means monero is potential to be next bitcoin, it may. And I think its anon feature makes it special to privacy, dark net.
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August 27, 2016, 04:08:29 AM
 #205

...

Do you think that world powers will allow to use XMR on their territory ?
They will alow if they control it. When switzland doesn want to release info about some money transfers then some sad men
comes to Switzland and they have convinced them to make changes i guess they had "good" arguments.
Today because of money loudering you have more restricted laws when it will be needed all XMR exchanges will go down
they will impose good law and they will shut it down. XMR would exist p2p but you wont get any fiat window for it that will couse hard drop in volume.
If you want challenge a biggest superpowers and help terrorists with XMR you are on loose side.
And big Russia and China they don't want to much freedom for their people and XMR is problem for them too.
If XMR will be popular in terrorists group it will be shut down.

XMR cannot replace bitcoin but it is possible that it will gain a popularity as big as bitcoin. The darknet will be a catalyst of this. I speculate that XMR will later be considered the unofficial "official" currency of the darknet. That is a big market that will later amount to the billions of $. We will see drug cartels, terrorists, money launderers and other people who want complete privacy of their transactions to use XMR.

The problem is to get to fiat. That is where XMR and BTC will get their synergy. To use one, you have to use the other. I believe BTC will still be relevant because it will be the gateway and store of value coin for a long time together with XMR as the daily transaction coin that keeps everything you do with it private and secure.


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August 27, 2016, 07:36:40 AM
 #206

...

Do you think that world powers will allow to use XMR on their territory ?
They will alow if they control it. When switzland doesn want to release info about some money transfers then some sad men
comes to Switzland and they have convinced them to make changes i guess they had "good" arguments.
Today because of money loudering you have more restricted laws when it will be needed all XMR exchanges will go down
they will impose good law and they will shut it down. XMR would exist p2p but you wont get any fiat window for it that will couse hard drop in volume.
If you want challenge a biggest superpowers and help terrorists with XMR you are on loose side.
And big Russia and China they don't want to much freedom for their people and XMR is problem for them too.
If XMR will be popular in terrorists group it will be shut down.

XMR cannot replace bitcoin but it is possible that it will gain a popularity as big as bitcoin. The darknet will be a catalyst of this. I speculate that XMR will later be considered the unofficial "official" currency of the darknet. That is a big market that will later amount to the billions of $. We will see drug cartels, terrorists, money launderers and other people who want complete privacy of their transactions to use XMR.

The problem is to get to fiat. That is where XMR and BTC will get their synergy. To use one, you have to use the other. I believe BTC will still be relevant because it will be the gateway and store of value coin for a long time together with XMR as the daily transaction coin that keeps everything you do with it private and secure.

In the future, the bitcoin can be the reserve currency of the digital world while the Monero can be the darknet currency.
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August 27, 2016, 02:20:34 PM
 #207

This makes some very valid points, nevertheless there are some areas where I have to disagree.

1) The state is by far not the biggest source of friction in the current fiat money system. Most of the friction comes from the actions of entrenched players such as banks, credit card issuers and other entrenched providers such as Western Union. These entrenched private sector payment providers are for the most part responsible for most of the fees and restrictions with electronic fiat payments today. I actually doubt that crypto will have that much impact on the state. We must keep in mind that in the 1950's and 1960's top marginal income tax rates were close and in some cases over 100% of income, yet for the most part transactions were in the form of cash and bearer instruments (bonds, stocks etc). The role of the banks and other payment intermediaries was greatly diminished when compared to today. Crypto in this respect is in fact turning back the clock by 50 - 60 years.

Well, I consider that the "bad" aspects of banking are state-induced.  Of course, banks are on one hand private entities that want to make money, and as such, they want to get your money.   But in as much as they would be private entities in fair competition, a market would emerge for every service provided and the greedy ones would be out of competition wrt.  less greedy ones, as is the case in every free market.

However, banks have become, despite themselves, parts of the financial control of states.  Some regulation in the banking sector can be seen as customer protection, but most of it, especially KYC / AML is nothing else but forcing banks to be part of law enforcement.  That banks take fees and that this is some friction is one thing (but crypto also has this kind of friction).  The REAL problem is that banks have to comply to a regulation that is for 90% state interest, and only for 10% consumer protection (the funny games that led to the crisis of 2008 were not against regulation but against consumer interest - the Swiss bank privacy has always been a consumer interest, but has been broken because every bank in the world is now turned into some fiscal law enforcement agency of the USA.  The fact that you cannot freely deal with people through bank accounts is not because banks are playing it rough on their customers, but rather because they have to comply to state regulation, not in the interest of their customers, but in the interest of states.

This is why, even though bankers are a greedy lot, I consider that the main problem with banking comes from their compulsory compliance with states.  Banks are in a certain way enslaved by states to do their dirty oppressive stealing jobs.

Quote
2) The role of speculators and investors in crypto currency is to anticipate the future value of a crypto currency due to market use under Fisher's formula. One would expect during the initial growth phase of a crypto currency that a very significant part if not most of the market capitalization is due to investment and speculation. This is both normal and actually necessary for the crypto currecny to function as money in commerce; however one must always keep in mind that the ultimate justification is the future value of the crypto currency for use in commerce. The market is simply attempting to predict this future value. In this respect Monero is no different from Bitcoin.

I agree with you that the current price of an asset is the market's best guess of the future price, taking into account that it might make a mistake.  That is, if the market gives it a 5% chance that bitcoin will be $ 10 000 in "the future", the market price now will be $ 500.

However, and that is where our opinions differ, the market may very well estimate that *speculators* will have driven the price to $ 10 000 with a probability of 5% in the future.  In other words, the use of bitcoin as a currency may very well be estimated at essentially zero, as long as speculators now speculate that there will be speculators buying it for $10 000, they will pay $ 500 for it now.  Compare it to a random work of art.  If you think that with 5% probability, some people will estimate it at $ 10 000 in the future, you may very well be willing to pay $ 500 for it now.  Even though that work of art will never be a currency and is right now, nothing else but some coloured lines on a piece of canvas.

The current price is the expectation value of what one thinks future people will pay for it, but these too, may have their reasons which is not "currency".

Quote
3) Bitcoin has a very significant problem that is completely orthogonal to privacy, anonymity and fungibility. This is of course the protocol limitation of the 1 MB fixed blocksize limit. Furthermore there no clear solution to this problem in Bitcoin that does not lead over time to a situation where the Bitcoin miners do not have an incentive to secure the network. Monero has addressed this issue with a tail emission. I must emphasize this. A Monero style adaptive blocksize without a tail emission such as is the case in Bytecoin, is a prescription for disaster.. This is why the blocksize limit in Bitcoin is so intractable, and why those in the small block Bitcoin camp also have very valid arguments. Bitcoin like coins such as Litecoin and Dash also have the same fundamental problem as Bitcoin here since they both have a fixed maximum number of coins. Dogecoin could safely use a Monero style adaptive blocksize limit since it also a tail emission.

Monero could over time overtake Bitcoin in market cap simply by taking over the growth in the demand for crypto that Bitcion cannot accommodate. This is because accommodating such growth while maintaining the security of the Bitcoin network, may well require breaking a fundamental social covenant of Bitcoin; namely the 21 million XBT limit. The privacy, anonymity and fungibility aspect of Monero would simply add fuel to the fire.

This is a very valid remark.  But this finiteness of transaction volume might actually suit bitcoin in becoming a "store of value".  It is not suited to become a currency, that is true.  The finite transaction volume on the chain implies that one can only afford doing BIG transactions, with BIG fees.  This fits with the "speculative asset" aspect that bitcoin is having, over the "currency" aspect.

But as such, to me, bitcoin has lost its roots.  Very big amounts of value will be transacted on its chain.  Now, very big amount of value will of course always be scrutinized much more closely by states.  An open block chain, strict regulation, and an institutionalized aspect is, I think, the fate of bitcoin.  Not a thing with which you will be able to pay someone freely and escape state interference.

Bitcoin will be too expensive to be used as a currency.

That said, in the long run, block chain technology has a fundamental problem with large transaction rates per second in any case.  Monero too.  Even though the system allows it in principle, it is not practical to have a block chain with terabytes of data to be added every month.

I think the Lightning network is on something, but it is, like bitcoin, not mature enough to solve all issues.  Once you have a block chain, you can use it to guarantee off-chain payments, because you have some value at stake on the chain.  The way the Lightning network is set up is IMO not right, but there are good ideas in it.  I think we should look at how it evolves on bitcoin, to learn from it, and build something better afterwards.

I fully agree that the finite amount of money (a "sound money" purity) is more problematic than anything else, and that tail emission is a very good idea.
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August 28, 2016, 01:48:18 AM
 #208

Bitcoin will be too expensive to be used as a currency.

Infinite divisibility voids this assertion.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 28, 2016, 03:51:12 AM
 #209

i doubt that this can ever happen with monero replacing anything, it is like any other altcoin with too much hot air.

but these days the pump of XMR is awesome and it is an excellent opportunity to take advantage of when the price is rising to make a good amount of profit.

--looking for signature--
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August 28, 2016, 08:39:00 AM
 #210

Yes, and we're on our way!
Even price is at top currently i thought to bag hold few XMR. Price may rise few more to previous ETH 0.03BTC and may stabalize after thant. Darknet + monero seem really big news.

 
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August 29, 2016, 02:00:57 AM
 #211

i doubt that this can ever happen with monero replacing anything, it is like any other altcoin with too much hot air.

but these days the pump of XMR is awesome and it is an excellent opportunity to take advantage of when the price is rising to make a good amount of profit.

I am afraid that is true. There are many traders who are very happy to take advantage and trade in and out of XMR now because the upside volatility is very high. This is what I said in another thread and I did not mean anything bad with it. I was only saying it in a factual way because that is how markets are. But I was told by smoothie that I was envious because he thought I was saying that XMR is being pumped and dumped. Which it actually is happening now because the traders buy in and then dump higher.

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August 29, 2016, 02:29:13 AM
 #212

monero never can move or replace posititon bitcoin

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August 29, 2016, 02:36:25 AM
 #213

what do you guys think about these cryptonote technology, should we worry about it? Huh
There's no need to worry about because bitcoin for me is the father of all alt coins , why should it can be change by alt coins ? hmm and many people are using bitcoin to exhange into another altcoin so that they can grow their bitcoin by trading it selling it and etc m if bitcoin died then all alt coins will die soon also

Y U MAD AT ME
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August 29, 2016, 02:49:19 AM
 #214

Bitcoin = Public Ledger
Monero = Private Ledger

Everything else = Pump n' Dump / Speculation
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August 29, 2016, 03:28:22 AM
 #215

monero never can move or replace posititon bitcoin

Great insight... Only a couple more weeks until you can join a signature campaign!!  Shocked
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August 29, 2016, 03:46:20 AM
 #216

i doubt that this can ever happen with monero replacing anything, it is like any other altcoin with too much hot air.

but these days the pump of XMR is awesome and it is an excellent opportunity to take advantage of when the price is rising to make a good amount of profit.

I am afraid that is true. There are many traders who are very happy to take advantage and trade in and out of XMR now because the upside volatility is very high. This is what I said in another thread and I did not mean anything bad with it. I was only saying it in a factual way because that is how markets are. But I was told by smoothie that I was envious because he thought I was saying that XMR is being pumped and dumped. Which it actually is happening now because the traders buy in and then dump higher.

If they are dumping into darknet users, then the valuation is partly utility, which changes the dynamics. The same could be said of Bitcoin's darknet and remittance markets, and use as an alt coin on-ramp.

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August 29, 2016, 04:55:37 AM
 #217

i doubt that this can ever happen with monero replacing anything, it is like any other altcoin with too much hot air.

but these days the pump of XMR is awesome and it is an excellent opportunity to take advantage of when the price is rising to make a good amount of profit.

I am afraid that is true. There are many traders who are very happy to take advantage and trade in and out of XMR now because the upside volatility is very high. This is what I said in another thread and I did not mean anything bad with it. I was only saying it in a factual way because that is how markets are. But I was told by smoothie that I was envious because he thought I was saying that XMR is being pumped and dumped. Which it actually is happening now because the traders buy in and then dump higher.

If they are dumping into darknet users, then the valuation is partly utility, which changes the dynamics. The same could be said of Bitcoin's darknet and remittance markets, and use as an alt coin on-ramp.

Please keep in mind that I do not see pumping and dumping as a strategy used by day traders as bad. It is just a natural occurrence in the market that came from a trading strategy that is done for profit. The people who frown down upon it are the ones who are the victims of this. In fact the losers are at fault here because they were stupid enough to fall for the ruse.

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August 29, 2016, 05:43:15 AM
 #218

Monero is clearly being pumped right now by folks who intend to switch to Z-Cash when it launches. Not saying Monero lacks merit, just that it's more fun and games than anything else at the moment. The vol is attractive as well.

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August 29, 2016, 06:23:05 AM
 #219

Monero is clearly being pumped right now by folks who intend to switch to Z-Cash when it launches. Not saying Monero lacks merit, just that it's more fun and games than anything else at the moment. The vol is attractive as well.

If I cared about privacy I would not use cryptographic software implemented by former IDF, paid by the Israeli government.  The likelihood that these people are SIGINT operatives is overwhelming.  It's like accepting NSA-coin as your privacy cover.

Is it even remotely reasonable to trust the supply of ZCash?  The incentives to subvert this are potentially astronomical, and the act itself will be undetectable,  until the hyperinflation sets in.

The last time I reviewed their proposal and code, the sheer size of the proofs rendered the system incapable of scaling to any significant usage traffic.  Has that been fixed?

And even if none of those problems existed, the underlying mathematics has not seen the decades of peer review that cryptonote's algorithms have enjoyed.  The trust factor just isn't there.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 29, 2016, 07:17:27 AM
 #220

Bitcoin will be too expensive to be used as a currency.

Infinite divisibility voids this assertion.

I wasn't talking about the price of the coin, but the price of a transaction.   If there is a market demand for, say, 700 transactions per second (currency usage), and there is room for 7 transactions per second (that's optimistic: 0.3K per transaction is about the smallest you can do), then there will be a fierce fight to be in the 1% transactions that get in.  The fee war will be such that only big transactions are worth while.   Take the top 1% transaction amounts and you have an idea of what will be the amounts that can still be paid in bitcoin.

So, buying a new car with bitcoin is still something to do, but buying a coffee not.
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