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Author Topic: How much more would you gamble if you found a provably fair EV+ casino?  (Read 1105 times)
galbros
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July 19, 2015, 10:23:24 PM
 #21

Can I know what +EV is? Thanks  Cheesy.

Positive Expected Value.  Almost all gambling games have a negative EV so the house can pay its expenses and earn a profit.

To answer the OP - assuming they did it intentionally, e.g. they figured they would make it up on advertising or something, I would play a lot.  After all, gambling is fun, and the only reason I don't do more of it is that it is also expensive, due to the negative EV.  So maybe if the EV was very very small, the casino would get a lot of action.
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July 19, 2015, 10:25:37 PM
 #22

In this scenario that would never happen in real life you just follow the standard BR management, making sure that your chances of going broke are 0%, and make a boring job with consistant profit out of it.

Alright.
Explain your standard bankroll management.

It's a casino with a 1% edge towards you, that any bet will on average get 101% of the value.
You can choose any odds, and you will get a favoured bet.
If you choose 50% odds, you'll win 2.02 units if you bet 1 unit.

There is no foolproof method, gambling always has a risk, but I'd like to see you try to explain.

With a 1% +EV, a bankroll of about 200 times your maximum bet gives a very low chance of losing long term. ~source = 'long-term memory'

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July 19, 2015, 11:13:37 PM
 #23

A billionaire decides to waste some money and creates a provably fair EV+ casino.
Don't liken this to investing in the house of a dice site, as you don't have as much security as you get, with the maximum winnnings and that sort of things.
How much would you gamble in this hypothetical EV+ casino?

Hmm, my luck at gambling is such, that I would likely lose all my bankroll before being able to take advantage of the positive player edge. Cheesy

But subSTRATA is right, of course: this would be an ideal opportunity to take advantage of the +EV, for however long the casino manages to last.

Yes, depending on the size of your bankroll and the amount of +EV, the "Risk of Ruin" can be shockingly high even when you have an actual advantage.

well, of course, you are gambling after all, but with BRM the player should come out ahead in the long run (1 million+ bets).

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July 20, 2015, 05:02:21 AM
 #24

A billionaire decides to waste some money and creates a provably fair EV+ casino.
Don't liken this to investing in the house of a dice site, as you don't have as much security as you get, with the maximum winnnings and that sort of things.
How much would you gamble in this hypothetical EV+ casino?

if it really is an +EV casino and if becomes apparent for me that i am going to win i would deposit a medium amount in there to start winning.
and by medium i mean something that makes a reasonable amount in profit but not that high that i feel nervous about betting it there.

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July 20, 2015, 05:08:49 AM
 #25

I would gamble 21 million btc if I could
Just make very small bets, enough so that a losing streak wouldn't bankrupt you, and just infinitely go on autobet on 50%.
Eventually, after winstreak or losestreak even out, you will be average at the positive house edge, and keep increasing as you go.
Of course unless your me, who will even lose money with a positive house edge Tongue

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July 20, 2015, 05:57:31 AM
 #26

I would bet only enough to make me live good,aka until I have 1,million dollar worth of btc.

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July 20, 2015, 07:36:56 AM
 #27

Depends on a lot of things specially how much +EV it is. Obviously since its +EV means you will win more than the house, so flat betting a lot based on your bankroll will likely be the best way to go . I would flat bet 0.001 BTC if I had a bankroll of 1 BTC continously .

Well the best way to go would be to use the kelly system but i really dont understand the point of this thread and im pretty sure it should go to off-topic and not the gamble section since its a pretty stupid post.

Ahh, I just read about it, sorry for my lack of knowledge.
I was attempting to figure out whether dice sites having EV- actually makes much of a difference to the average player, and whether the average player would change their betting strategy and quantity with EV+
It depends on the way gamblers would play . Even if the house edge was 0 , and if people used martingale then even then it is very possible for them to bust and lose their money. Majority of the gamlers use the same strategy so it definitely is likely the house would still profit. For no house edge I dont think strategy would change much , but if its negative house edge or +EV for gamblers, then the gambler would likely flat bet and cause the house to lose.

Have you not read anything in this thread? I already told you guys that the best strategy for a +EV casino would be to use the kelly system not flat betting, of course the casino would still lose in the long term no matter what strategy is being used but its better to use kelly

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July 20, 2015, 02:35:01 PM
 #28

I still won't really gamble much even if a casino is really provably fair EV+.
There is still house edge which will make you lose in the long run.

     

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Coef
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July 20, 2015, 08:38:45 PM
Last edit: July 20, 2015, 10:54:39 PM by Coef
 #29

I still won't really gamble much even if a casino is really provably fair EV+.
There is still house edge which will make you lose in the long run.

EV should be calculated after you consider everything like the house edge, bonus, rakeback, jackpot, etc.
So if playing a game actually gives you positive EV, you should really be winning in the long run with a good bankroll management.

But as illustrated in Ryan's example in https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1127970.msg11916934#msg11916934, it may not be possible for you to run the game for long enough sometimes.

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August 03, 2015, 09:18:26 AM
 #30

there is actually a formula for this kind of thing. It's called a kelly criterion. It depends on the likelihood of winning, the EV, and your bankroll. You should probably check it out on wikipedia.

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August 04, 2015, 03:15:20 AM
 #31

It's still gambling so you may lose, however if you have a large bankroll, profit can be made in the long-run if you play it smart.
futureofbitcoin
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August 04, 2015, 06:29:41 PM
 #32

It's still gambling so you may lose, however if you have a large bankroll, profit can be made in the long-run if you play it smart.
That's why you follow kelly criterion to decide how much to bet based on your bankroll.


However, if allowed, betting 1 satoshi a large number of times is probably the safest way to gain a profit.

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August 04, 2015, 07:06:04 PM
 #33

I would spend my life playing this game when it's +EV and simple
poker has +EV but you need to be good and to make good decisions in order to win , but if we are talking about +EV virtual casino game I think this won't need any skills and it would be a cash machine  Grin

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August 05, 2015, 02:12:09 AM
 #34

I think I would have not spent more than I have because it is not all related to chances and more related to know how play
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