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Author Topic: War on ISIS: Can we even win?  (Read 1319 times)
jaysabi (OP)
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July 23, 2015, 02:24:02 PM
Last edit: July 23, 2015, 02:39:32 PM by jaysabi
 #21

You can't say that guerrilla tactics are conventional. Guerilla warfare by definition is unconventional and irregular fighting. ...
not any more...

....It makes zero practical difference if some Muslims want to chatter about "They are not True Islam," that's exactly the sectarian divides that have made the Middle East such a ridiculous back and forth battleground for centuries.  Rather than the solution, that's the problem.

What we are really talking about at the core here, is the exporting of the basic Crazy of the middle east to the rest of the world.

I agree fully with the first part of your statement ("I don't like the shape of the world I see evolving as a result of Muslims, and the worlds response to Muslims.  It makes zero practical difference if this is the result of 33% of muslims or 0.1%"), but I'm still not convinced that the peaceful Muslims necessarily share the burden of the violent ones just by association. (One of the reasons I asked initially was to see if anyone had any good arguments to support the notion that I haven't heard.)

We are essentially having the same debate in America right now: Dylan Roof's murder of 9 black church members has made guilty by association any person who wants to display the Confederate Flag. Because Roof came from southern culture and used the flag in his hate propaganda, anyone displaying that flag is now judged to be guilty of the same hate by association. The question at hand then is do you think 'southern culture' as it is represented by those who find the Confederate Flag to be a symbol of heritage should bear the burden of Roof's violent actions as well?

Re "peaceful Muslims" I think it's just total BS.  Look back at these threads for the evidence.  What you'll find is the likes of "Islam is peace and Love" then on questioning "Well of course except for Evil Zion" or "Except for stoning adulterers that's GOOD" and "Except for punishing gays" and "Except for cutting off hands and feet" and "Evil Jews did 911", or "Except for Great Satan, the USA."  You'll find so much totally contradictory crap it makes your head spin.  There is zero uniform and internally consistent message of "peace and love."  Zero.

Internal inconsistency lays the lie to your question of which you seek to be convinced (bolded) as a false overly broad generalization of the premise of a logical argument.


Re Confederate Flag.

No, you are parroting the top down disseminated liberal mis framing of the issue.

Who owns the Confederate Flag and it's heritage is the Democratic party and it's members.  Notice they NEVER ADMIT THIS.  NEVER.  Rather they push the lie it's the Eeeevvvoolll REupblicans.  Yeah, bullshit.

Confess up to it, please.




First, I said "southern culture." I didn't name conservative, liberal, democrat or republican. If you associate "southern culture" to only be republicans, then that's your interpretation of it. I find it possible democrats and republicans can equally identify with a southern heritage. That doesn't answer the question though. My assumption is you purposely attempted to spin to avoid owning your hypocrisy.
jaysabi (OP)
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July 23, 2015, 02:36:30 PM
 #22

You can't say that guerrilla tactics are conventional. Guerilla warfare by definition is unconventional and irregular fighting. My question at this point is where are you finding information about them fighting open battles? Every time they come out in the open, they are bombed into oblivion by all the air forces targeting them. Their only asset is to remain unknown and not easily identifiable, otherwise they will be obliterated by the superior militaries targeting them. I can't imagine they have "uniforms," because if we could easily identify who is ISIS from who is a regular civilian, we wouldn't have such a hard time engaging them. There are stories of them dressing in Kurish uniforms to infiltrate an area undetected before they start fighting, but as soon as they come up against superior forces, they disintegrate out of necessity. That's not conventional fighting at all, even if it's the norm for insurgencies (which is nothing new, that's how America colonials were effective against the militarily superior British in the Revolutionary War).
I see what your saying. In the past guerrilla warfare was characterized as special warfare or even unconventional warfare. But modern warfare tends to draw the line at who they targeting and if they fight in uniform.  Special forces are our equivalent irregular forces. DAESH forces do wear uniforms and primarily target military targets. They also practice terror by distributing horrifying videos to scare the population. Although they have now stopped this practice and no longer will show decapitations.

But they do fight open battles from fixed positions in uniform. They use artillery, anti-air missiles, light and heavy armor, etc. These things are even beyond guerrilla fighting Their forces are arguably the most competent in the regional fighting. They know how to hide and when to move in a way that we can do little about.
For example there is a lot of talk about air-strikes. Well, that window has closed a lot. 75% of the air sorties now return without dropping any ordinance. We really have few actionable targets. Even though you can see them walking around everywhere, we can't hit most of them because they are in civilian areas or the targets are not cost effective. We would go broke trying to kill all 100,000 of them with $10,000 hellfire missiles.

The time has now come for ground forces to fight, but it is not clear who that will be. The YPG is often seen as the group who will fight. However they are only interested in defending the country of Kurdistan, and frankly the Peshmerga are overrated. The next most effective force is Iran. However they are interested in controlling Iraqi territory and spreading their influence. That leaves the U.S. and the Iraqi army. I don't see how that is going to work. The U.S. is not going to commit the hundreds of thousands of ground forces needed to win and the Iraqis don't have the fighters. Forget about training them, we have been doing that for like 11 years and have about 2600 reliable fighters. At that rate it will take a century. I really don't see how we are going to do this.  


"Unconventional and irregular" fighting is the definition. Conventional warfare is still considered to be fought by "official" armies furnished by nation-states (official meaning the army is a proxy or extension of the political rulers), where a formal surrender or treaty is signed upon the defeat of one side. Conventional warfare doesn't really happen anymore because nation states rarely go to war anymore for many different reasons, not least of which is there is no economic reason to, but that doesn't mean the norm of guerrilla warfare by insurgents is now "conventional" warfare. Guerrilla warfare by default is unconventional because there usually is no nation-state the fighters represent, or at least no traditionally recognized nation-state. Perhaps that is all a designation of guerrilla warfare has ever meant, as opposed to two nations that formally agree they are at war and will fight until one surrenders. That's how I take "traditional" war to function, the formality of it really.

The things you described Daesh doing are certainly more conventional (use of artillery, light/heavy armor, uniforms in battle), but do you have any reports of this? I haven't seen any reports of them using these tactics recently, and only vaguely remember ever seeing any. My understanding of the situation is that these tactics have largely been abandoned because it makes them too easy to target by air.

I agree with your third paragraph. Daesh is not defeatable at this time without ground forces, and the ground force by proxy has been a disaster. That still doesn't lead me to believe our ground forces should be committed.
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July 23, 2015, 03:23:41 PM
 #23

"Unconventional and irregular" fighting is the definition. Conventional warfare is still considered...
I think we are mostly on the same page with this. Maybe they are a guerrilla force with limited conventional capacity?

Here are a few recent examples of their more advanced capabilities and some of the uniforms that different units use. I watch a lot of these videos and it has been interesting to see how much more professional the fighting has become. Better training and watching your comrades die I guess.

Last weeks attack of an Egyptian Navy ship:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3y_d4lVzMP8

Uniforms that the better units wear:



Heavy weapons: (your totally right that these are hard to use and move undetected. But they can be disguised or you can wait till a sand storms comes)
DAESH with captured armor column:

DAESH in Libya last week:


Here you can see a little of their planning and mixed use of conventional assets, like heavy rockets and drones, and new guerrilla tactics like VBIES. (suicide car bomb).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfjMYyZ7AqQ


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July 23, 2015, 03:55:03 PM
 #24

"Unconventional and irregular" fighting is the definition. Conventional warfare is still considered...
I think we are mostly on the same page with this. Maybe they are a guerrilla force with limited conventional capacity?

Here are a few recent examples of their more advanced capabilities and some of the uniforms that different units use. I watch a lot of these videos and it has been interesting to see how much more professional the fighting has become. Better training and watching your comrades die I guess.

Last weeks attack of an Egyptian Navy ship:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3y_d4lVzMP8

Uniforms that the better units wear:



Heavy weapons: (your totally right that these are hard to use and move undetected. But they can be disguised or you can wait till a sand storms comes)
DAESH with captured armor column:

DAESH in Libya last week:


Here you can see a little of their planning and mixed use of conventional assets, like heavy rockets and drones, and new guerrilla tactics like VBIES. (suicide car bomb).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfjMYyZ7AqQ


Just a note.

I am not impressed.
jaysabi (OP)
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August 07, 2015, 07:21:09 PM
 #25

"Unconventional and irregular" fighting is the definition. Conventional warfare is still considered...
I think we are mostly on the same page with this. Maybe they are a guerrilla force with limited conventional capacity?

Here are a few recent examples of their more advanced capabilities and some of the uniforms that different units use. I watch a lot of these videos and it has been interesting to see how much more professional the fighting has become. Better training and watching your comrades die I guess.

Last weeks attack of an Egyptian Navy ship:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3y_d4lVzMP8

Uniforms that the better units wear:



Heavy weapons: (your totally right that these are hard to use and move undetected. But they can be disguised or you can wait till a sand storms comes)
DAESH with captured armor column:

DAESH in Libya last week:


Here you can see a little of their planning and mixed use of conventional assets, like heavy rockets and drones, and new guerrilla tactics like VBIES. (suicide car bomb).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfjMYyZ7AqQ



Interesting to see this, thanks. (Sorry for super slow response. I've been absent from the forum for awhile and am catching back up on threads I was involved in.)

I wonder if the large area they control and have held for a significant time has any role in their decision of whether or not to employ uniforms, as they may be "safer" areas for them to do so openly. It certainly seems they don't use uniforms when they are plotting new attacks in areas they don't control, as the plots of bombing mosques and civilian centers relies on not first being identified before you can detonate the bombs.
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