https://twitter.com/SatoshiOdds Bet with a tweet, fixed odds on fixed stakes

[betcoin.clum]

Hi guys, I just started this project, https://twitter.com/satoshiodds

Followers can bet with just a tweet, sending 0.1BTC to the public wallet. Bets are placed/confirmed/won with a tweet.
Followers can challenge satoshiodds, offering their own odds as well

How you find it ?

Which brand name would you prefer, Betcoins something.. or SatoshiOdds?

any feedback much appreciated

cheers

[nickaizoku]

With twitter?how this bet can be done is there, is it provably fair? And yeah must minimun 0.1 btc for perbet? Isn't it too high for this? That have no official site.. just using Twitter.. 

[betcoin.clum]

yes, that's the point, no official site, just twitter, to keep things simple without requiring sign up
We though keeping stakes fixed, at 0.1 btc, so it;s easy to estimate winnings, big enough to keep everyone excited and small enough to keep risks low
The wallet will always be public, so everyone can see what's going on..

[orryde]

Is this safe? I think this will take a big risk with no official site? just twitter?

[betcoin.clum]

excellent question, is it safe?

- I think it is, because everyone can monitor inflows/outflows from the portfolio
- everyone can see from the tweeter replies who bets on what and who get's paid
- all the pot btc are in blockchain, not on a  server that can be hacked
- a dispute can be solved with tweets, transparently

why someone whould trust a site more, especially if their portfolio cannot be monitored?

[Wendigo]

There is already a site for prop bets like Predictious. Fixed odds are not good if you are convinced a less probable event would happen and you would like to bet on higher odds.

- all the pot btc are in blockchain, not on a  server that can be hacked

What do you mean by that?

[lexuz]

May i know why you have idea like this? For me bet using twitter is too risk and why not using escrow service for hold balance if you try find bettor in here. I think  we will feel safe if using escrow service

[SyGambler]

as all people said , I don't find it safe and actually I don't get it
how do we make certain that this game is fair and safe , more info would be way helpful

[betcoin.clum]

May i know why you have idea like this? For me bet using twitter is too risk and why not using escrow service for hold balance if you try find bettor in here. I think  we will feel safe if using escrow service

well, I think escrow will make things slower and decrease the payout..
I like twitter because is innovative, fast and trust can build as followers increase..
do you use twitter?

[lexuz]

May i know why you have idea like this? For me bet using twitter is too risk and why not using escrow service for hold balance if you try find bettor in here. I think  we will feel safe if using escrow service

well, I think escrow will make things slower and decrease the payout..
I like twitter because is innovative, fast and trust can build as followers increase..
do you use twitter?

basically i not interested with your idea bet using twitter but good luck with your idea. once again is too risk dude,if not using escrow

[xetsr]

What's stopping you from gathering enough BTC and just walking away?

Why are you hiding behind an alt? Post from your other account.

Guys... use your head here. How many times have others got burned sending first to a brand new account?

[betcoin.clum]

very good point, why not satoshidice or the other sites aren't waking away, although they remain anonymous?

If I wanted to walk away,  I wouldn't limit the stakes to .10 btc only
If I wanted to walk away, I wouldn't use twitter, where every user can give instant feedback and denounce the serive

If you guys want to try twitter.com/saatoshiOdds, I give you the 1st bet for free if it loses. That means you ve got a risk-free bet!
The challenge is open to everyone!

[xetsr]

very good point, why not satoshidice or the other sites aren't waking away, although they remain anonymous?

If I wanted to walk away,  I wouldn't limit the stakes to .10 btc only
If I wanted to walk away, I wouldn't use twitter, where every user can give instant feedback and denounce the serive

If you guys want to try twitter.com/saatoshiOdds, I give you the 1st bet for free if it loses. That means you ve got a risk-free bet!
The challenge is open to everyone!

LOL. Satoshidice was around for awhile and the owner was known.

0.1 BTC is a lot to most of the scammers around here. How hard is it to create a twitter account? That account is worth almost nothing, nevermind 0.1 or ~$28 which again is a lot to most scammers.

Stop hiding behind that alt and post from your other account. You should know how things work around here.

[betcoin.clum]

well.. again, If I wanted to scam, I would give a risk-free bet to every new follower ...

even satoshidice had to start from zero one day a few years back  and I bet you don't know who the real owner is, do you?

SatosiOdds starts today from zero, that's why offers a risk free bet to every new follower, to start building reputation step by step..

[Phildo]

Betting here is insane.

there is 0.245261 BTC balance right now, what happens if me and 2 of my friends bet no on your 300 dollar bet and it wins?

If you are offering fixed odds at the time of the bet, you are the bookie, and you need to have a balance to pay out the winners.

[betcoin.clum]

thank you for visiting the wallet and checking the balance, I just added 1 bitcoin, to make sure there is enough for 10 followers to bet on a single outcome :-) Feel free to place your bet mate

[Phildo]

there's some stake there, that's great, this still isn't going to work. You are offering 50/50 odds on a bet that is not 50/50 to happen.

What site is being used to determine the price? What happens when the price is 280 at 11:50 and 20 people bet no?

[Phildo]

I'm not trying to pick on you, but what is your plan if 20 people (or 1 person with 20 twitter accounts) all bet on no right now?

There is not enough money in the account to pay them off, and continuing to take bets on "no" right now is not the sign of a good bookie. Some people wouldn't care about how good you are at being a bookie, but I know that you need to be a good bookie to make money, and you need to make money to pay out other people.

I'm all for trying to make a go at things, but this plan has major problems, let's fix them or stop this before someone gets burnt.

[betcoin.clum]

I'm not trying to pick on you, but what is your plan if 20 people (or 1 person with 20 twitter accounts) all bet on no right now?

There is not enough money in the account to pay them off, and continuing to take bets on "no" right now is not the sign of a good bookie. Some people wouldn't care about how good you are at being a bookie, but I know that you need to be a good bookie to make money, and you need to make money to pay out other people.

I'm all for trying to make a go at things, but this plan has major problems, let's fix them or stop this before someone gets burnt.

I m glad this topic became technical and thank you for the feedback, it seems at least somebody cares.
If SatoshiOdds book becomes unbalanced, with many bitcoiners favoring a single outcome, then I would balance my book, posting a similar bet with a 'traditional' bookie, offering slightly lower odds at satoshiOdds, how you find this?

[Phildo]

That's what bookies do when they get into trouble, but you are going to be in that situation more than a normal bookie if you make up shitty odds like that last bet. You need to set "good" lines because if you don't you will be hit by people doing arbitrage and will end up wasting all of your potential profits by paying juice to other bookies who have good lines.

How would you have balanced your book if big money came in on no yesterday? As we got closer to midnight it became obvious that the bet was going to resolve one way, so you needed to do something to entice people to bet on "yes" by increasing the odds, or dissuade people from betting on no by reducing the odds. Putting up odds and letting them sit for long periods of time is a guaranteed way to lose money. There's a reason odds on cloudbet change after every bet and that bitbet has that payout system.

Offering slightly lower odds for the convenience of betting on twitter and not having to deal with any of the other sites is an idea that may work. But you need to set good lines otherwise people will be killing you by making plus ev bets and taking all of your coins.

[Erza]

Is that the minimal cost? 0.1 btc to bet? I guess that is too much on this random bet. Please give us any proof that you wont scam it. Doesnt mean that you show us your in and out cashflow, you wont be scammed us

[betcoin.clum]

I think there is a lot of scepticism about trust, people are concerned the standard stake is too big and uncertainty about where the winning will come from.
I think I came up with the solution,
what if I make it as a pool bet, where every bet is binary only (Yes or No) and winners share loser's stakes ?
So every time there will be only one active bet and one pool where everyone can see how much is there..
Does it appear more realistic ?

[betcoin.clum]

Okay guys I changed it to pool betting, as the odds make things complecated

How you find this ?
https://twitter.com/SatoshiOdds/status/626397276332802049

Game on!