21 millions bitcoiners

[momore]

What will be the value of one Bitcoin when the number of users (people that will want to use Bitcoin) will hit 21 millions?

At this point, if each user wanted to have 1 Bitcoin, will have to pay a certain number of $ or € or Y, whatever. I'm going with $ just because it's the most used around the world.

How many $ do you think that person, the n. 21 millionth, who wants to buy 1 BTC will have to pay to obtain it?

My wild guess is: 160000 $.

Now upto 25 millions already?

[1714018400]

1714018400

[1714018400]

1714018400

[1714018400]

1714018400

[1714018400]

1714018400

[coinableS]

Then all the bitcointalk members will be rich like Bill Gates.
I am dreaming of that day to come. 

No, because a large percentage will sell off at $1k, then $5K, then $10K etc.   Early adopters will become early sellers, there will only be a select few that will have the gonads and patience to hold even when the price skyrockets.

[talkbitcoin]

Then all the bitcointalk members will be rich like Bill Gates.
I am dreaming of that day to come. 

No, because a large percentage will sell off at $1k, then $5K, then $10K etc.   Early adopters will become early sellers, there will only be a select few that will have the gonads and patience to hold even when the price skyrockets.

i agree, a lot of people would sell on the first sight of price rise

[GODLIKE]

What will be the value of one Bitcoin when the number of users (people that will want to use Bitcoin) will hit 21 millions?

At this point, if each user wanted to have 1 Bitcoin, will have to pay a certain number of $ or € or Y, whatever. I'm going with $ just because it's the most used around the world.

How many $ do you think that person, the n. 21 millionth, who wants to buy 1 BTC will have to pay to obtain it?

My wild guess is: 160000 $.

Now upto 25 millions already?

Uhhh wat?

[Pk880058]

Then all the bitcointalk members will be rich like Bill Gates.
I am dreaming of that day to come. 

No, because a large percentage will sell off at $1k, then $5K, then $10K etc.   Early adopters will become early sellers, there will only be a select few that will have the gonads and patience to hold even when the price skyrockets.

i agree, a lot of people would sell on the first sight of price rise

Well I'll not be one of those selling early.
I'll just earn and hold them.

[Amph]

Then all the bitcointalk members will be rich like Bill Gates.
I am dreaming of that day to come. 

No, because a large percentage will sell off at $1k, then $5K, then $10K etc.   Early adopters will become early sellers, there will only be a select few that will have the gonads and patience to hold even when the price skyrockets.

probably much less than 1, i would say from 500 the selling pressure will increase a lot, and will be exponential from 1k, which is a good thing, less weak hands more strong price

[Lauda]

No, because a large percentage will sell off at $1k, then $5K, then $10K etc.   Early adopters will become early sellers, there will only be a select few that will have the gonads and patience to hold even when the price skyrockets.

Wrong. Faulty generalization is not a indicator or what is going to happen. People seriously need to rethink why they are involved with Bitcoin. Essentially what should be done once the price takes off (which will probably be followed by adoption) is to spend Bitcoin itself. That's what it was designed for.
People need to stop being greedy and converting. If I ever plan on buying X, I will buy it using Bitcoin.

probably much less than 1, i would say from 500 the selling pressure will increase a lot, and will be exponential from 1k, which is a good thing, less weak hands more strong price

Possibly, but I doubt that there will be much pressure at $500. If you remember the huge amount of threads of people complaining that they are at a loss (when the price started to go down). I'm expecting selling pressure to exponentially increase above $1k. However, that price point again might be a indicator and we might take off even further.
OP there will never be enough Bitcoins for 21 million people to own 1. You do have to factor in the estimated 1M that satoshi has, and various losses over time.

Update: Some corrections.

[Hopalong]

There are many abolished paper currencies, they all have limited number, but only worth something in the eyes of currency collectors. If a currency is not in circulation, then its demand and value will be very limited

A large portion of this forum is blindly beliving that the 21 000 000 cap is going to make everybody want to use bitcoins. It has no effect on the mainstream user if there is a cap or not. The physiological effect of owning a bitcoin today wont have any effect on the masses. Not more than having a rare stamp is affecting the masses as it is only other stamp collectors who cares.

The things that make a good currency has nothing to do with how many or what medium they are in. What matters is as follows. Are it trustet so you can buy stuff, can you earn it doing normal jobs, are everyone else around you using it and finally is it legal so you dont risk anything by using it. 99.9% of the worlds population has no desire to use a currency just because of it anonymity. They want something usefull.

If people wanted a currency with limited supply there are a lot of options and many are easier to adapt than bitcoins who are being hoarded by geeks and other oddballs. Either they adopt a crypto who is spread evenly so everyone could get in on it or they could go for low inflation systems. Low inflation has been tested in Japan, and the sharia laws forbid interest on loans....

[GODLIKE]

No, because a large percentage will sell off at $1k, then $5K, then $10K etc.   Early adopters will become early sellers, there will only be a select few that will have the gonads and patience to hold even when the price skyrockets.

Wrong. Faulty generalization is not a indicator or what is going to happen. People seriously need to rethink why they are involved with Bitcoin. Essentially what should be done once the price takes off (which will probably be followed by adoption) is to spend Bitcoin itself. That's what it was designed for.
People need to stop being greedy and converting. If I ever plan on buying X, I will buy it using Bitcoin.

probably much less than 1, i would say from 500 the selling pressure will increase a lot, and will be exponential from 1k, which is a good thing, less weak hands more strong price

Possibly, but I doubt that there will be much pressure at $500. If you remember the huge amount of threads of people complaining that they are at a loss (when the price started to go down). I'm expecting selling pressure to exponentially increase above $1k. However, that price point again might be a indicator and we might take off even further.
OP there will never be enough Bitcoins for 21 million people to own 1. You do have to factor in the estimated 1M that satoshi has, a various losses over time.

I don't think you will see people using Bitcoin anywhere soon... too few shops where to spend it.
Maybe in the USA things go well, maybe in Norway or UK you can actually use Bitcoin often, but in the rest of the world you can't use it for everyday shopping, not even if you really want.
But this is a side consideration.
The main consideration is that who came into Bitcoin so early, forcefully knows or thinks its price is destined to grow A LOT.
This makes spending of Bitcoin quite naive if you ask me, and the less you have, the more naive you are if you spend it.
I agree though that SOMEBODY should spend them, because shops must see use of it, if we want Bitcoin to be implemented.
But I think it's still early and most of all I think that the people spending Bitcoin should be the ones that have most of them, rich people and such, while people with 5 BTC or less should hold onto them and only begin to spend when mainstream adoption will approach.

[GODLIKE]

There are many abolished paper currencies, they all have limited number, but only worth something in the eyes of currency collectors. If a currency is not in circulation, then its demand and value will be very limited

A large portion of this forum is blindly beliving that the 21 000 000 cap is going to make everybody want to use bitcoins. It has no effect on the mainstream user if there is a cap or not. The physiological effect of owning a bitcoin today wont have any effect on the masses. Not more than having a rare stamp is affecting the masses as it is only other stamp collectors who cares.

The things that make a good currency has nothing to do with how many or what medium they are in. What matters is as follows. Are it trustet so you can buy stuff, can you earn it doing normal jobs, are everyone else around you using it and finally is it legal so you dont risk anything by using it. 99.9% of the worlds population has no desire to use a currency just because of it anonymity. They want something usefull.

If people wanted a currency with limited supply there are a lot of options and many are easier to adapt than bitcoins who are being hoarded by geeks and other oddballs. Either they adopt a crypto who is spread evenly so everyone could get in on it or they could go for low inflation systems. Low inflation has been tested in Japan, and the sharia laws forbid interest on loans....

But once again, I didn't mean how much will the 21 millionth bitcoin cost.
I asked what will the 21 millionth BITCOIN USER WANNABE PAY for 1 BTC (even if he buys only a fraction of it, as it will much probably be).
Maybe a more clear way to pose the question is: how much will 1 BTC cost when the number of Bitcoin users will hit 21 million?

About "the things that make a good currency"... I won't enter into that matter, as there's another thread to be opened if one wants to discuss such a large topic, but the fact that the number of Bitcoins is limited to 21 millions IS actually a factor to increase its value over time. I hope I don't have to explain you why.

[Mickeyb]

No, because a large percentage will sell off at $1k, then $5K, then $10K etc.   Early adopters will become early sellers, there will only be a select few that will have the gonads and patience to hold even when the price skyrockets.

Wrong. Faulty generalization is not a indicator or what is going to happen. People seriously need to rethink why they are involved with Bitcoin. Essentially what should be done once the price takes off (which will probably be followed by adoption) is to spend Bitcoin itself. That's what it was designed for.
People need to stop being greedy and converting. If I ever plan on buying X, I will buy it using Bitcoin.

probably much less than 1, i would say from 500 the selling pressure will increase a lot, and will be exponential from 1k, which is a good thing, less weak hands more strong price

Possibly, but I doubt that there will be much pressure at $500. If you remember the huge amount of threads of people complaining that they are at a loss (when the price started to go down). I'm expecting selling pressure to exponentially increase above $1k. However, that price point again might be a indicator and we might take off even further.
OP there will never be enough Bitcoins for 21 million people to own 1. You do have to factor in the estimated 1M that satoshi has, a various losses over time.

But who guarantees you that people will be selling when we get to their price points where they got in, e.g. $500, $1000 etc. I mean in my opinion, most of those who wanted out have gotten out and took a loss already. When Bitcoin hits $500 again, I would be excited that it recovered and would be looking how high can it go over $500 to try and lock some profits and wouldn't be looking to get out and be even.

I don't know, this is me, I don't know are the others thinking like that as well, but I am.

Cheers!

[ammy009]

I believe it ! But when it touch $160K then I will not alive 

[GODLIKE]

I believe it ! But when it touch $160K then I will not alive 

[Denker]

I believe it ! But when it touch $160K then I will not alive  

Why?
Do you think you won't be alive in 10-15 years? If adoption at one point takes place in exponential growth the same will happen to Bitcoin's price. If Bitcoin will be successful I believe in 10-15 years there will be at least 100 million people using it. This will mean that we are not talking about Bitcoin anymore. We will be talking about bits.

[Lauda]

I don't think you will see people using Bitcoin anywhere soon... too few shops where to spend it.
-snip-
I agree though that SOMEBODY should spend them, because shops must see use of it, if we want Bitcoin to be implemented.
But I think it's still early and most of all I think that the people spending Bitcoin should be the ones that have most of them, rich people and such, while people with 5 BTC or less should hold onto them and only begin to spend when mainstream adoption will approach.

That does apply to local shops. Anyone buying things online can easily find a lot of places to spend their Bitcoin. As I've stated numerous times, more and more places are accepting Bitcoin. One can't expect everyone to accept it within a few years. Besides, if you look at how much revenue Bitcoin created for Overstock it is a clear indication that people are willing to spend Bitcoin.
I guess there is a concentration of greedy people in this very forum.

But who guarantees you that people will be selling when we get to their price points where they got in, e.g. $500, $1000 etc. I mean in my opinion, most of those who wanted out have gotten out and took a loss already. When Bitcoin hits $500 again, I would be excited that it recovered and would be looking how high can it go over $500 to try and lock some profits and wouldn't be looking to get out and be even.

I don't know, this is me, I don't know are the others thinking like that as well, but I am.
Cheers!

Nobody guarantees anything. I was talking about selling pressure, I wasn't saying that people are actually going to sell out. There's a difference. If you've been active on the forum a lot, you could clearly see the indicators that many want to sell for the sake of profiting. This is why there are so many people obsessed (having healthy discussions about the price is a rarity) with the price in the speculation section.
Your opinion is not based on evidence, thus making that statement irrelevant (most). We'd need to somehow get actual numbers to confirm (quite impossible).

[GODLIKE]

I don't think you will see people using Bitcoin anywhere soon... too few shops where to spend it.
-snip-
I agree though that SOMEBODY should spend them, because shops must see use of it, if we want Bitcoin to be implemented.
But I think it's still early and most of all I think that the people spending Bitcoin should be the ones that have most of them, rich people and such, while people with 5 BTC or less should hold onto them and only begin to spend when mainstream adoption will approach.

That does apply to local shops. Anyone buying things online can easily find a lot of places to spend their Bitcoin. As I've stated numerous times, more and more places are accepting Bitcoin. One can't expect everyone to accept it within a few years. Besides, if you look at how much revenue Bitcoin created for Overstock it is a clear indication that people are willing to spend Bitcoin.
I guess there is a concentration of greedy people in this very forum.

I think there's a difference between "greedy" and "somebody that is trying to earn something".
I only have less than 1 BTC and I am without a job. Would you call that greed?

[Lauda]

I think there's a difference between "greedy" and "somebody that is trying to earn something".
I only have less than 1 BTC and I am without a job. Would you call that greed?

I would call that irrelevant. You essentially earn money when the price of Bitcoin rises. Converting to fiat is not necessary. With the value of your investment now increased (assuming Bitcoin price sees a uptrend) you can actually spend it to get more stuff that before.
I for one, do not have any plans to convert. I rather have plans to buy things. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that nobody should convert in any case.

Greed is usually very obvious (view the speculation section). Anyhow, this might already be a bit off topic.
Update:
I never said that specifically you were greedy. You must have misunderstood something.

I think that is something you have in common with most of the forum...

Exactly, and thus there is no real influence on the price.

[GODLIKE]

I think there's a difference between "greedy" and "somebody that is trying to earn something".
I only have less than 1 BTC and I am without a job. Would you call that greed?

I would call that irrelevant. You essentially earn money when the price of Bitcoin rises. Converting to fiat is not necessary. With the value of your investment now increased (assuming Bitcoin price sees a uptrend) you can actually spend it to get more stuff that before.
I for one, do not have any plans to convert. I rather have plans to buy things. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that nobody should convert in any case.

Greed is usually very obvious (view the speculation section). Anyhow, this might already be a bit off topic.

Might be off topic, but I don't like to be called greedy when I own nearly nothing 

https://www.google.it/search?q=greedy&oq=greedy&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.1079j1j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8

[Hopalong]

I don't think you will see people using Bitcoin anywhere soon... too few shops where to spend it.
-snip-
I agree though that SOMEBODY should spend them, because shops must see use of it, if we want Bitcoin to be implemented.
But I think it's still early and most of all I think that the people spending Bitcoin should be the ones that have most of them, rich people and such, while people with 5 BTC or less should hold onto them and only begin to spend when mainstream adoption will approach.

That does apply to local shops. Anyone buying things online can easily find a lot of places to spend their Bitcoin. As I've stated numerous times, more and more places are accepting Bitcoin. One can't expect everyone to accept it within a few years. Besides, if you look at how much revenue Bitcoin created for Overstock it is a clear indication that people are willing to spend Bitcoin.
I guess there is a concentration of greedy people in this very forum.

I only have less than 1 BTC and I am without a job.

I think that is something you have in common with most of the forum...

[Amph]

I think there's a difference between "greedy" and "somebody that is trying to earn something".
I only have less than 1 BTC and I am without a job. Would you call that greed?

I would call that irrelevant. You essentially earn money when the price of Bitcoin rises. Converting to fiat is not necessary. With the value of your investment now increased (assuming Bitcoin price sees a uptrend) you can actually spend it to get more stuff that before.
I for one, do not have any plans to convert. I rather have plans to buy things. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that nobody should convert in any case.

Greed is usually very obvious (view the speculation section). Anyhow, this might already be a bit off topic.

Might be off topic, but I don't like to be called greedy when I own nearly nothing 

https://www.google.it/search?q=greedy&oq=greedy&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.1079j1j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8

well greedy aren't only those that own many coins, but are also those that are here for the money only and not for the technology, if you're here for necessity you might be in between, i mean no one can guarantee that when you will be wealthy again you will not want to earn more...