Slush's Pool - Lucky Streaks -> Hash Rate Jump -> Low Luck -> Equilibrium...

[Stratobitz]

I've been mining for quite some time, and just wanted to hear people's thoughts on this (call it) phenomenon, natural odds of luck and chance, coincidence...

So Slush's pool, when looking at system stats, for the most part maintains a nearly perfect 100% expected payout on the odds of finding blocks over a 30 day period.

However here is what I have noticed while mining there, on a fairly cyclical repeat basis:

Pool luck reaches equilibrium on blocks found vs expected blocks found over a day/few days/week... Thus reporting 100%.

Pool is (for demonstration sake only) at 14-16 PH at this point in time.

Pool then experiences a lucky streak, where 24 hour luck surges to 175%-200%+  -- Lots of blocks found in a short time period.

After the lucky streak, the pool network speed climbs 10-20% (miners jumping on trying to chase past performance).

Now pool is operating at 16-18 PH.

During this surge of mining hash-power, luck drops, and no blocks are found during the following 24 hour period or longer, with luck dropping into the sub 90% (80%-90%) luck yet at a 10-20% increase in hashrate.

Over the course of a few days to a week, equilibrium is reached, and the avg. week/month luck returns to 100%.

Over 30 Days the pool does not seem to deviate more than 1% or 2% from expected 100%.

THAT SAID.

Does this seem odd?

It seems to me that the pool might be redirecting hash-power, using lucky streaks at low hash-rates to pay out, then directing the influx of hash-power during the chasing past gains phase and luck of course drops like a rock.

Time and time again - The pool performs much better at lower hash rates... During a surge or jump in mining power, luck drops drastically.

Thoughts? Comments? Criticism all welcome.

I stress - No accusations being made... Simply an observation of mining there for quite some time.

Cheers!

Strato

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[-ck]

This is no more than a clustering illusion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion

If people are moving their hashrate due to apparent lucky streaks on a pool with a hop-proof pay scheme then they are fooling themselves. Having a huge mining operation does not make people smarter so even the largest mining operations that are using regular pools may be chasing luck. Or it's renters using large hashrates doing the same.

[Stratobitz]

This is no more than a clustering illusion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion

If people are moving their hashrate due to apparent lucky streaks on a pool with a hop-proof pay scheme then they are fooling themselves. Having a huge mining operation does not make people smarter.

Hey -ck, I wasn't commenting on the naturally expected behavior of the masses... Running to where the winnings take place.

My observations were in regards to pool performance (luck) in contrast to pool network speed.

Simply put, after the pool "naturally" has a streak as streaks will naturally occur... Hash rate increases (following not during) the jump. Once the hash rate has increases... Not even 100% luck is achieved... Rather a 1 day 200% luck is directly followed by 4-5 days at 85%. The end result after 6-7 days is 100% as expected.

Variance, strictly numbers speaking, would argue we would or should see months of 120% luck, or even higher.

I don't believe Ive ever seen 30 day luck more than 2 maybe 3% above PAR.

We have to simply blind faith trust what we see. Directing hash power using a proxy is by no means even difficult... And all we have to really rely on is the dashboard stats supplied by the pool. 

[kano]

You skipped the first 2 lines of his reply.
That's your answer.

[notabeliever]

I keep on looking for reasons why and stopped.
 
I think miners are chasing the luck. Last 2 weeks between 12ph and 13ph starting yesterday the ph grew to over 14ph's.

Today when hen you look at the block explorer you see slushes name more than once finding blocks. The funny thing is last month I tried other pools, tried rotating miner every 20 minutes. I wasn't consistent like slushes pool and lost. Slushes pool tells me all the time you can't beat Long history of stable and accurate payouts........

....and the reward system like no other pool.

[-ck]

My point was the extra hashrate is likely luck chasers fooled by the clustering illusion, probably rentals.

[Stratobitz]

Im not complaining. I currently mine at Slush's pool. Was simply curious.

-ck Thank you for the link. Interesting read.

Mine on.

Strato