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Author Topic: Alright , Time to Dump or Time to Buy ?  (Read 5418 times)
deisik
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August 23, 2015, 07:51:39 PM
 #101

So the price is decreasing by 10.2247% by default yearly, however due to other market forces, adoption, investments, etc. It might be less, or the price could increase massively too![/b]

As I said, this number is ultimately useless, even technically speaking (purely inflation-wise), since you don't ever know how much of newly mined coins will actually enter the circulation and how much is irrevocably lost within that time (365 days or whatever) or altogether...

The notion of inflation (expansion of money volume) is meaningless beyond circulation

Well we dont have a CPI to measure prices, the only price we have is the Bitcoin price.

Which is hard to measure on since it has been fully packed with events over the last 5 years, and it wasnt just the static noise traders do but big events distorting the price.

I guess I could do a correlation test between bitcoin mining & bitcoin price, but it would not be accurate on such few sample data.

This had already been done a few years ago (there is a thread somewhere around here just about that). There is no such correlation between newly mined coins and bitcoin price. To see this, you don't even need to run any tests...

It is enough to look at the price chart

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August 23, 2015, 07:56:16 PM
 #102

So the price is decreasing by 10.2247% by default yearly, however due to other market forces, adoption, investments, etc. It might be less, or the price could increase massively too![/b]

As I said, this number is ultimately useless, even technically speaking (purely inflation-wise), since you don't ever know how much of newly mined coins will actually enter the circulation and how much is irrevocably lost within that time (365 days or whatever) or altogether...

The notion of inflation (expansion of money volume) is meaningless beyond circulation

Well we dont have a CPI to measure prices, the only price we have is the Bitcoin price.

Which is hard to measure on since it has been fully packed with events over the last 5 years, and it wasnt just the static noise traders do but big events distorting the price.

I guess I could do a correlation test between bitcoin mining & bitcoin price, but it would not be accurate on such few sample data.

This had already been done a few years ago (there is a thread somewhere around here just about that). There is no such correlation between newly mined coins and bitcoin price. To see this, you don't even need to run any tests...

It is enough to look at the price chart

Well maybe the traders don't price it in. Do the miners usually dump the coins right after they mine it? (from my experience they do)

If they do, then the price decreases from newly mined coins. If they just hoard it, then it doesn't.

I guess its the same bubble container (as I call it) as with fiat is the stock & bond market. Hoarding sucks up inflation and it trickles down in smaller fractions, when somebody sells small portions of their assets. (as stock market correction vs stock market crash)

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August 23, 2015, 08:04:17 PM
 #103

So the price is decreasing by 10.2247% by default yearly, however due to other market forces, adoption, investments, etc. It might be less, or the price could increase massively too![/b]

As I said, this number is ultimately useless, even technically speaking (purely inflation-wise), since you don't ever know how much of newly mined coins will actually enter the circulation and how much is irrevocably lost within that time (365 days or whatever) or altogether...

The notion of inflation (expansion of money volume) is meaningless beyond circulation

Well we dont have a CPI to measure prices, the only price we have is the Bitcoin price.

Which is hard to measure on since it has been fully packed with events over the last 5 years, and it wasnt just the static noise traders do but big events distorting the price.

I guess I could do a correlation test between bitcoin mining & bitcoin price, but it would not be accurate on such few sample data.

This had already been done a few years ago (there is a thread somewhere around here just about that). There is no such correlation between newly mined coins and bitcoin price. To see this, you don't even need to run any tests...

It is enough to look at the price chart

Well maybe the traders don't price it in. Do the miners usually dump the coins right after they mine it? (from my experience they do)

If they do, then the price decreases from newly mined coins. If they just hoard it, then it doesn't.

Once again, you don't know what amount of coins actually enters the circulation and how much leaves (being lost or otherwise done with for all). So your assumptions are no more than wild guesses...

Even if all other factors had been kept constant

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August 23, 2015, 08:09:53 PM
 #104


Once again, you don't know what amount of coins actually enters the circulation and how much leaves (being lost or otherwise done with for all). So your assumptions are no more than wild guesses...

Even if all other factors had been kept constant

I do know how much enters the circulation. https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins

I dont know how much gets burned/locked away (but even if this would matter, it gets priced in long term, one of the reasons bitcoin didnt dropped below 150$ is because satoshi has burned alot of coins and he never sold at bigger crashes, so its somewhat safe to say that 100-150$ is a strong price support).

If the miners dump the coin after they mine it, then obviously the price goes down (I know how much gets mined, and I know how much price decreases, so that can be measured).

I dont know how much they hoard, so I was asking you about that, what is your knowledge how much mining pools hoard and how much they sell, this is the big question.

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August 23, 2015, 08:17:45 PM
 #105


Once again, you don't know what amount of coins actually enters the circulation and how much leaves (being lost or otherwise done with for all). So your assumptions are no more than wild guesses...

Even if all other factors had been kept constant

I do know how much enters the circulation. https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins

I dont know how much gets burned/locked away (but even if this would matter, it gets priced in long term, one of the reasons bitcoin didnt dropped below 150$ is because satoshi has burned alot of coins and he never sold at bigger crashes, so its somewhat safe to say that 100-150$ is a strong price support).

If the miners dump the coin after they mine it, then obviously the price goes down (I know how much gets mined, and I know how much price decreases, so that can be measured).

I dont know how much they hoard, so I was asking you about that, what is your knowledge how much mining pools hoard and how much they sell, this is the big question.

I've thought about this (though toward doges). Well, it is possible to write a routine that would keep tract of bitcoin wallets (through the blockchain). I abandoned this idea, since the efficiency (accuracy) of price prediction (which is what evidently is your aim) would be no better than that of flipping a coin (actually, even less)...

In short, you are wasting your time

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August 23, 2015, 08:25:06 PM
 #106


Once again, you don't know what amount of coins actually enters the circulation and how much leaves (being lost or otherwise done with for all). So your assumptions are no more than wild guesses...

Even if all other factors had been kept constant

I do know how much enters the circulation. https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins

I dont know how much gets burned/locked away (but even if this would matter, it gets priced in long term, one of the reasons bitcoin didnt dropped below 150$ is because satoshi has burned alot of coins and he never sold at bigger crashes, so its somewhat safe to say that 100-150$ is a strong price support).

If the miners dump the coin after they mine it, then obviously the price goes down (I know how much gets mined, and I know how much price decreases, so that can be measured).

I dont know how much they hoard, so I was asking you about that, what is your knowledge how much mining pools hoard and how much they sell, this is the big question.

I've thought about this (though toward doges). Well, it is possible to write a routine that would keep tract of bitcoin wallets (through the blockchain). I abandoned this idea, since the efficiency (accuracy) of price prediction (which is what evidently is your aim) would be no better than that of flipping a coin (actually, even less)...

In short, you are wasting your time

Not necessarly price prediction, i`m not that interested in bitcoin speculation, since I wont really be selling my bitcoins. In worst case scenario I would move it into altcoins ,but not back to fiat.

Maybe you looked at low timeframes (hourly,daily) , bitcoin has little sample of data, and the trading noise is big, your signal-to-noise ratio is small so you want to look at larger timeframes.

I used to research forex trading bots, but then I gave up the idea, because I realized that financial markets can only be predicted in larger than 1 year timeframes, and the ROI is small ( so forex get-rich-quick trading bots are most likely scams), not in 1 minute charts or silly stuff like that.

With bitcoin you have more data, and accurate data (not central bank lies), so it is possible. Yet we have only 6 year history, so its not viable now.

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August 25, 2015, 10:22:55 AM
 #107

time to buy, like always

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August 25, 2015, 01:46:26 PM
 #108

i think its time to buy!
the rate is going down, and i think next month the rate will be more advantageous  Tongue
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August 25, 2015, 02:12:48 PM
 #109

time to buy, like always

So, are you saying that you always buy bitcoins, no matter what the price is Huh
Then how you earn profit when you buy Bitcoin at high prices. Huh
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August 25, 2015, 09:41:57 PM
 #110

My idea is right now you should start buying but do buying in parts like if u want to buy 10 btc then u buy today 1 btc after 2 or 3 days buy 1 more like this if you give gap you will get the fluctuation benefit and your average will be correct, so when it raises you can sell and earn profit.
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August 26, 2015, 07:33:35 AM
 #111

My idea is right now you should start buying but do buying in parts like if u want to buy 10 btc then u buy today 1 btc after 2 or 3 days buy 1 more like this if you give gap you will get the fluctuation benefit and your average will be correct, so when it raises you can sell and earn profit.

I think now time is to wait and watch because still prices very volatile as of now. I'm Ok to buy slightly higher price, if prices are less volatile 
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August 26, 2015, 08:27:09 AM
 #112

My idea is right now you should start buying but do buying in parts like if u want to buy 10 btc then u buy today 1 btc after 2 or 3 days buy 1 more like this if you give gap you will get the fluctuation benefit and your average will be correct, so when it raises you can sell and earn profit.

I think now time is to wait and watch because still prices very volatile as of now. I'm Ok to buy slightly higher price, if prices are less volatile 

Peeps seem to not fully understand their bliss with high volatility. Buy&Sell (soft buy) gives more revenue (rather, revenue flow) that Buy&Hold (hard buy) in the long run...

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August 26, 2015, 08:30:41 AM
 #113

I think it's time to buy bitcoin
The opportunity to buy many bitcoin at low prices  Grin
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August 26, 2015, 09:12:40 AM
 #114

My idea is right now you should start buying but do buying in parts like if u want to buy 10 btc then u buy today 1 btc after 2 or 3 days buy 1 more like this if you give gap you will get the fluctuation benefit and your average will be correct, so when it raises you can sell and earn profit.

I think now time is to wait and watch because still prices very volatile as of now. I'm Ok to buy slightly higher price, if prices are less volatile 

Peeps seem to not fully understand their bliss with high volatility. Buy&Sell (soft buy) gives more revenue (rather, revenue flow) that Buy&Hold (hard buy) in the long run...

If you can predict the market with an edge.

If you can't then buy & hold might not give the same revenue, it is definitely the safe option, since if bitcoin gets to a mass adoption phase, you might x1000 your bitcoins in value.

Of course if you trade succesfully all price movements, then you can earn x100000 , but there are hardly any inefficiences in the market anymore.

Arbitrage is very hard, or not cost-efficient, because of fiat.

And market prediction is small scales is not efficient unless you are in a pump & dump group, that make the market move...

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August 26, 2015, 09:50:13 AM
 #115

My idea is right now you should start buying but do buying in parts like if u want to buy 10 btc then u buy today 1 btc after 2 or 3 days buy 1 more like this if you give gap you will get the fluctuation benefit and your average will be correct, so when it raises you can sell and earn profit.

I think now time is to wait and watch because still prices very volatile as of now. I'm Ok to buy slightly higher price, if prices are less volatile 

Peeps seem to not fully understand their bliss with high volatility. Buy&Sell (soft buy) gives more revenue (rather, revenue flow) that Buy&Hold (hard buy) in the long run...

If you can predict the market with an edge.

If you can't then buy & hold might not give the same revenue, it is definitely the safe option, since if bitcoin gets to a mass adoption phase, you might x1000 your bitcoins in value.

I can easily prove that you are wrong. And not just technically wrong (due to some lapsus linguae), but fundamentally wrong, given the conditions stated ("buy & hold")...

Quote
buy & hold might not give the same revenue, it is definitely the safe option

Now tell about Goldilocks and the three bears to those who bought anywhere in-between 400-1,100 dollars per coin

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August 26, 2015, 10:45:09 AM
 #116

I think this is a good time to buy, maybe because the problem BitcoinXT making many hesitant to invest, but who believe to the next month bitcoin prices may go up he will catch a big fish  Grin
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August 26, 2015, 10:47:35 AM
 #117

My idea is right now you should start buying but do buying in parts like if u want to buy 10 btc then u buy today 1 btc after 2 or 3 days buy 1 more like this if you give gap you will get the fluctuation benefit and your average will be correct, so when it raises you can sell and earn profit.

I think now time is to wait and watch because still prices very volatile as of now. I'm Ok to buy slightly higher price, if prices are less volatile 

Peeps seem to not fully understand their bliss with high volatility. Buy&Sell (soft buy) gives more revenue (rather, revenue flow) that Buy&Hold (hard buy) in the long run...

If you can predict the market with an edge.

If you can't then buy & hold might not give the same revenue, it is definitely the safe option, since if bitcoin gets to a mass adoption phase, you might x1000 your bitcoins in value.

I can easily prove that you are wrong. And not just technically wrong (due to some lapsus linguae), but fundamentally wrong, given the conditions stated ("buy & hold")...

Quote
buy & hold might not give the same revenue, it is definitely the safe option

Now tell about Goldilocks and the three bears to those who bought anywhere in-between 400-1,100 dollars per coin

This game is all about the play between big players they want the small players to book profit or loss so that in lower they can buy and hold then u will see again high rates. same thing happened some moths back when the rate went to 200 and below usd then suddenly within a week price rose to 300usd then when whole market started to buy thinking of potential it started to fall. In this market you have to trade and keep the profit coin with you.
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August 26, 2015, 12:18:59 PM
 #118

My idea is right now you should start buying but do buying in parts like if u want to buy 10 btc then u buy today 1 btc after 2 or 3 days buy 1 more like this if you give gap you will get the fluctuation benefit and your average will be correct, so when it raises you can sell and earn profit.

I think now time is to wait and watch because still prices very volatile as of now. I'm Ok to buy slightly higher price, if prices are less volatile 

Peeps seem to not fully understand their bliss with high volatility. Buy&Sell (soft buy) gives more revenue (rather, revenue flow) that Buy&Hold (hard buy) in the long run...

If you can predict the market with an edge.

If you can't then buy & hold might not give the same revenue, it is definitely the safe option, since if bitcoin gets to a mass adoption phase, you might x1000 your bitcoins in value.

I can easily prove that you are wrong. And not just technically wrong (due to some lapsus linguae), but fundamentally wrong, given the conditions stated ("buy & hold")...

Quote
buy & hold might not give the same revenue, it is definitely the safe option

Now tell about Goldilocks and the three bears to those who bought anywhere in-between 400-1,100 dollars per coin

So you dont believe bitcoin will go back to 1000 $, so it will just hover between 200 $ until eternity? (thats impractical since even the USD has a cumulative inflation of 60% in about 20 years)

Even if every year the userbase increases by 500,000 and everybody puts in 1000$ (not to mention veteran investors buy too), in that pace the price will reach 1000$ in 22 years , that is if we exclude the fact that big whales will instantly jump once the fiat ship sinks.

Not everyone is a gold bug like you, some people prefer instantly transferable currency.

Buy and hold is safe for the fact that you dont buy high and dont sell low, you just wait for price to rise.


And dont come here with the 1100$ deflation, we know that the market was rigged by MT GOX, in reality the price never went higher than 600$, and even that was a speculative spiral.

In a true valuation chart (and in log chart too) bitcoin's value has been in uptrend since inception, because speculators dont really matter here.

deisik
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August 26, 2015, 02:06:14 PM
Last edit: August 26, 2015, 04:08:31 PM by deisik
 #119

My idea is right now you should start buying but do buying in parts like if u want to buy 10 btc then u buy today 1 btc after 2 or 3 days buy 1 more like this if you give gap you will get the fluctuation benefit and your average will be correct, so when it raises you can sell and earn profit.

I think now time is to wait and watch because still prices very volatile as of now. I'm Ok to buy slightly higher price, if prices are less volatile  

Peeps seem to not fully understand their bliss with high volatility. Buy&Sell (soft buy) gives more revenue (rather, revenue flow) that Buy&Hold (hard buy) in the long run...

If you can predict the market with an edge.

If you can't then buy & hold might not give the same revenue, it is definitely the safe option, since if bitcoin gets to a mass adoption phase, you might x1000 your bitcoins in value.

I can easily prove that you are wrong. And not just technically wrong (due to some lapsus linguae), but fundamentally wrong, given the conditions stated ("buy & hold")...

Quote
buy & hold might not give the same revenue, it is definitely the safe option

Now tell about Goldilocks and the three bears to those who bought anywhere in-between 400-1,100 dollars per coin

So you dont believe bitcoin will go back to 1000 $, so it will just hover between 200 $ until eternity? (thats impractical since even the USD has a cumulative inflation of 60% in about 20 years)

This has nothing to do with my beliefs (personally, I don't know and don't really care). Neither do I care if the price is high or low, all I need is volatility (profit-wise). In any case you shouldn't ask me, lol. It may surprise you but I'm more concerned now about the stability and continuous operation of the exchanges that I trade at, that they wouldn't run away with my money, get hacked, or just go belly up...

Sorry, I didn't read the rest. In most cases your posts are complete BS

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August 27, 2015, 01:36:41 AM
 #120


This has nothing to do with my beliefs (personally, I don't know and don't really care). Neither do I care if the price is high or low, all I need is volatility (profit-wise). In any case you shouldn't ask me, lol. It may surprise you but I'm more concerned now about the stability and continuous operation of the exchanges that I trade at, that they wouldn't run away with my money, get hacked, or just go belly up...

Sorry, I didn't read the rest. In most cases your posts are complete BS

Whats the big deal about that, if you say you can make so much profit, then you can cashout every 2-3 days and keep 80% of your money in cold storage.

Yes exchanges can run away with the money thats why guys work on decentralized exchanges, I see many of those projects upcoming and it will be more safe.

But even if it gets implemented and become safer. I`d still not trade my bulk of my money on that.


So because you are a trader you probably know not to risk more than 3% of the balance on 1 trade, so in that case what does it matter if you buy and hold 97% of it, or trade 3% (ON THE PRICE SWINGS), its the same thing Cheesy

Unless you risk like 90% of your balance in 1 trade, on which case you are a gambler not a trader.

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