Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[SmoothCurves]

One aspect missing is Fungibility.

[1713910013]

1713910013

[1713910013]

1713910013

[Afrikoin]

My take on the current price movement. The first fib levels represent the extension of Wave (A) to estimate levels for Wave (C). The second scale represents the extension of Wave 1 of C to estimate the levels for Wave 5 of C. It's possible that Wave (C) will be topping near the $273 mark as the 1.618 extension of Wave (A), assuming my count is valid.

[Afrikoin]

Very smart read

The Implications of Bitcoin: Money Without Government

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jon-matonis/implications-bitcoin-money

[Afrikoin]

Updated chart from before with the latest price movements. You can also find it in the comments of the article I posted yesterday, BTCUSD Short Term Corrective Rally.

Update on the recent jump to $267 which is following the count in the OP as a Wave 3 of C, hitting the 3.618 extension of Wave 1. We should expect a short but sharp retrace before the last move up to ~$274 as the top of the entire corrective move. Stay tuned for more.

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

Whats with the inconsistency in volumes? move up looks fishy

[8up]

Whats with the inconsistency in volumes? move up looks fishy

bitfinex lost alot of its former customers... for volume look at the other exchanges (even if faked) instead.

[Afrikoin]

" however if a few hundred million Chinese decide that the time has come to use bitcoin as the capital controls bypassing currency of choice, and decide to invest even a tiny fraction of the $22 trillion in Chinese deposits...

... in bitcoin (whose total market cap at last check was just over $3 billion), sit back and watch as we witness the second coming of the bitcoin bubble, one which could make the previous all time highs in the digital currency, seems like a low print."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-16/capital-controls-blowback-bitcoin-surges-back-pre-china-currency-wars-levels

[Afrikoin]

Whats with the inconsistency in volumes? move up looks fishy

bitfinex lost alot of its former customers... for volume look at the other exchanges (even if faked) instead.

Thanks for pointing that out. Slipped my mind. Bitfinex losing traders to other exchanges after last big incidence - flash crash, trading engine etc

[Afrikoin]

I really love following this particular currency, as it offers a challenge like no other asset. However, the more I study and analyze it, the more it seems to fall in the category of institutionally-controlled asset. I say only because all other retail-level timeframes are not able to provide any reliable or consistent result relative to the analysis, as it proves me wrong every step of the way within the M5, M15 and H1 timeframes - Yet, these are retail-level frames, where the Predictive/Forecasting Model can usually decipher between the two
However, once it stops showing this ability to decipher between the retail and the institutional plays, this only means one thing: The price moves at the scale of institutional players, and there is nothing that the retail-side can do to influence this asset. Again, I can only say this because there is a level that the Predictive/Forecasting Model defines for itself as a "Watch Line", or defined as "WL" in all of the analyses I do. And once this line is broken, it demands that the analysis be pushed and stayed at the next level up times 4.

[RoadTrain]

I'm signing up for this thread, if you don't mind.

[Afrikoin]

I'm signing up for this thread, if you don't mind.

Karibu!

[Afrikoin]

Does this look familiar?

a- b- c

[phoenix1]

Does this look familiar?

a- b- c

Only valid if it is an expanding diagonal, as 4 overlaps with 1
Same with David's chart above, post #225

However, in other charts (I think by Ryan on Masterluc's thread) it has been suggested that in the case of BTC, what is labelled as 2 is actually a truncated 5th of the previous C. In which case, drop from 300-200 is wave 1, and this is an a-b-c wave 2 retracement. Which would put as at a .75 retracement - perfectly reasonable for a wave 2 and could even go higher (invalidation at 300)
Does seem a little out of proprtion time-wise though (EDIT: maybe not). Interested to hear any pro EWers chime in on this.

Great thread by the way Afrikoin

BTW what is that chart for, and what happened next ?? Just read the title !!

EDIT: This count (truncated 5th where David has labelled 2) has almost been invalidated on the chinese exchanges, where we have a close to 100% retracement already (invalidation at 1845 CNY on OKC, 1850 on Huobi), but there may be an alt count there.

[Afrikoin]

“In five short years Bitcoin has issued 12 million units valued at $6 billion,” stated Mr Matonis. “No other virtual currency has ever done that in the history of modern economics. That demonstrates that we don’t need governments to provide our currency. We don’t need kings to coin our money. The myth of legal tender has been shattered. With apologies to the Chancellor, the emperor has no clothes.”

[Afrikoin]

Matthew says "Bitcoin has hit our $271 target. Expecting a large drop to below $100"

[Afrikoin]

Does this look familiar?

a- b- c

Only valid if it is an expanding diagonal, as 4 overlaps with 1
Same with David's chart above, post #225

However, in other charts (I think by Ryan on Masterluc's thread) it has been suggested that in the case of BTC, what is labelled as 2 is actually a truncated 5th of the previous C. In which case, drop from 300-200 is wave 1, and this is an a-b-c wave 2 retracement. Which would put as at a .75 retracement - perfectly reasonable for a wave 2 and could even go higher (invalidation at 300)
Does seem a little out of proprtion time-wise though (EDIT: maybe not). Interested to hear any pro EWers chime in on this.

Great thread by the way Afrikoin

BTW what is that chart for, and what happened next ?? Just read the title !!

EDIT: This count (truncated 5th where David has labelled 2) has almost been invalidated on the chinese exchanges, where we have a close to 100% retracement already (invalidation at 1845 CNY on OKC, 1850 on Huobi), but there may be an alt count there.

I see what you mean on the 1-2.

Check out a chart i've just put up.

#236

[ridery99]

“In five short years Bitcoin has issued 12 million units valued at $6 billion,” stated Mr Matonis. “No other virtual currency has ever done that in the history of modern economics. That demonstrates that we don’t need governments to provide our currency. We don’t need kings to coin our money. The myth of legal tender has been shattered. With apologies to the Chancellor, the emperor has no clothes.”

Typical BTC believever nerd stuff. Masses continue to use paypal.

[phoenix1]

I see what you mean on the 1-2.

Check out a chart i've just put up.

#236

Nice chart! Has same effect as the 'truncated 5th' option, $200 was bottom of a wave 1, this is the top of 2 and we are now entering a 3 that should be pretty deep and dramatic. I prefer Matthew's count TBH - the  w-x-y correction looks more in proportion to the wave 1 drop time-wise.
Not sure why he considers it a w-x-y as opposed to an A-B-C, but the difference here, if any, is beyond my understanding of EW

It should be noted that though we do seem to have turned now, that both alternatives allow for another leg higher in this rally. I think eboard10 is looking for this - a minor 4th wave retracement here (which may be complete), then a final 5th up. Would be cool to see an update from him. I'm also not sure this impulse is complete either and would not be surprised to see this, though given the number of extensions in the minor 3rd of the [y] on this chart, it may very well truncate anyway (especially in China), meaning the top is already in. Either way, I think we will struggle to push much higher here - just putting it out there more as a something to watch out for over the next couple of days - we will know soon enough  
Thanks Africoin

[Afrikoin]

“In five short years Bitcoin has issued 12 million units valued at $6 billion,” stated Mr Matonis. “No other virtual currency has ever done that in the history of modern economics. That demonstrates that we don’t need governments to provide our currency. We don’t need kings to coin our money. The myth of legal tender has been shattered. With apologies to the Chancellor, the emperor has no clothes.”

Typical BTC believever nerd stuff. Masses continue to use paypal.

Nuh.

You completely missed his point. I wouldn't label Jon as a 'typical BTC believer' because, for one, he was working on digital cash as early as 1996. Have a listen to a Virgin podcast i put up a couple of days ago.

Everything he says in this block of text is fact. This is a political statement with little to do with Paypal.