Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

We are all accustomed to the FUD by now

South Korea Allows Cryptocurrency Trading for Real-Name Registered Accounts https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/south-korea-allows-cryptocurrency-trading-real-name-registered-accounts/#1516748454

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[Majormax]

Still looks rather bullish and including a 2018 'moonshot'. I can relate to the points mentioned in that list of possible events.

Too much interest in blockchain right now for a 2-3 year crypto winter to appear.

I said the same in Jan 2014, and the winter was  nearly 3 years.  It can easily happen again.

In fact I think it would be a positive development for long term adoption. Real-world development can continue, untroubled by excessive speculation.

If the chart wave is similar, we could be looking at a BTC low ~$2000 in mid 2020

[Wekkel]

If the chart wave is similar, we could be looking at a BTC low ~$2000 in mid 2020

That’s right around the halvening. I do not see that happening. I’d rather think of a 2013 redux with a new ‘bubble’ after this ‘correction’. The market interest in this phenomenon is just too strong.

[bigtimespaghetti]

If the chart wave is similar, we could be looking at a BTC low ~$2000 in mid 2020

That’s right around the halvening. I do not see that happening. I’d rather think of a 2013 redux with a new ‘bubble’ after this ‘correction’. The market interest in this phenomenon is just too strong.

this time it's different?

this is bear man. we're perma rekt for at least a month or two. Probably more.

[Wekkel]

A minimum 2 month lingering period seems in the cards indeed. Back to work I guess 

[bigtimespaghetti]

A minimum 2 month lingering period seems in the cards indeed. Back to work I guess 

hehe Yup! doesn't mean we can't take advantages of bounces along the way.

[Majormax]

If the chart wave is similar, we could be looking at a BTC low ~$2000 in mid 2020

That’s right around the halvening. I do not see that happening. I’d rather think of a 2013 redux with a new ‘bubble’ after this ‘correction’. The market interest in this phenomenon is just too strong.

this time it's different?

this is bear man. we're perma rekt for at least a month or two. Probably more.

A year or two more like. Bear markets last much longer than 2 months.

Low of ~$2000 on BTC.

That would simply be a regular continuation of the price waves since 2010.

[JayJuanGee]

If the chart wave is similar, we could be looking at a BTC low ~$2000 in mid 2020

That’s right around the halvening. I do not see that happening. I’d rather think of a 2013 redux with a new ‘bubble’ after this ‘correction’. The market interest in this phenomenon is just too strong.

this time it's different?

this is bear man. we're perma rekt for at least a month or two. Probably more.

A year or two more like. Bear markets last much longer than 2 months.

Low of ~$2000 on BTC.

That would simply be a regular continuation of the price waves since 2010.

Majormax:  You seem to be assuming that we are in an early 2014 type price dynamics scenario rather than in a early 2013 type scenario... accordingly, you seem to be assuming the beginning of a bear market and we are less than two months into a correction (max retracement currently at 61% from $19,666 to $7625).   

There are a lot of folks who are grappling with a prediction in that regard, yet not too many folks are going to assume the beginning of a bear market based on both sparce evidence and less than two month passage of time from our most recent ATH.   It seems that you are taking the less likely scenario and assuming it to be the absolute correct one - especially when you are labelling our current status as a "bear market".

In other words, I don't think that it is fair to automatically assume either one scenario over another or even to assume the seemingly less likely scenario of a supposed bear market without a certain degree of evidence to support your seemingly presumptive, at best, labelling.

[ssmc2]

If the chart wave is similar, we could be looking at a BTC low ~$2000 in mid 2020

That’s right around the halvening. I do not see that happening. I’d rather think of a 2013 redux with a new ‘bubble’ after this ‘correction’. The market interest in this phenomenon is just too strong.

this time it's different?

this is bear man. we're perma rekt for at least a month or two. Probably more.

A year or two more like. Bear markets last much longer than 2 months.

Low of ~$2000 on BTC.

That would simply be a regular continuation of the price waves since 2010.

If this is a correction reminiscent of April 2013 then we're only looking at a 2-3 month recovery from this point.

[MNDan]

If the chart wave is similar, we could be looking at a BTC low ~$2000 in mid 2020

That’s right around the halvening. I do not see that happening. I’d rather think of a 2013 redux with a new ‘bubble’ after this ‘correction’. The market interest in this phenomenon is just too strong.

this time it's different?

this is bear man. we're perma rekt for at least a month or two. Probably more.

A year or two more like. Bear markets last much longer than 2 months.

Low of ~$2000 on BTC.

That would simply be a regular continuation of the price waves since 2010.

If this is a correction reminiscent of April 2013 then we're only looking at a 2-3 month recovery from this point.

Indeed - no crypto winter this time around. Just fueling the rocket boosters...

[Afrikoin]

If grandma is to be believed, the worst is over.

my comprehension is not helping with determining the timing of this movement.

year(s)-ish, maybe months.  How's that for precision?

[Afrikoin]

 "Re-fueling the rocket boosters"

I like that and i think that is what is happening. The amount of attention from the public after the run up to $20k has brought in crowds multiple times over.

So i dont expect us to go down too much.

$6k on the table for sure.

There is no doom, sometime between now and August/September we'll start heading back up. Question is, how low does this *correction* touch?

I need to spend a day studying charts to come up with a refined target. But the fibonacci retracemnet levels combined with targets for typical and atypical wave 4s and perhaps sprinkle in some EMA should give us a clue.

Remember, corrections can go as low as 82% retrace without invalidating wave 4 as long as its still above the wave 1 peak.

I have mostly been looking at EOS which is also in a correction.

EOS is correlated with BTC, so i would be watching EOS to know when we've hit bottom (bar the pumps from EOS announcements)

Also i will add EOS is holding better than BTC in terms of correcting. I think this speaks to how solid a project it is. If you are thinking of buying something else, EOS is a buy with atleast 10X potential from current price. Coupled with potential for fork rewards and airdrops.


Best,
Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

I also think the current rise is temporary and we'll be heading back down after a local top

[yul2k6]

Hey Afrikoin  thanks for the updates and what do you think is going to be the local top

[Majormax]

Majormax:  You seem to be assuming that we are in an early 2014 type price dynamics scenario rather than in a early 2013 type scenario... accordingly, you seem to be assuming the beginning of a bear market and we are less than two months into a correction (max retracement currently at 61% from $19,666 to $7625).   

There are a lot of folks who are grappling with a prediction in that regard, yet not too many folks are going to assume the beginning of a bear market based on both sparce evidence and less than two month passage of time from our most recent ATH.   It seems that you are taking the less likely scenario and assuming it to be the absolute correct one - especially when you are labelling our current status as a "bear market".

In other words, I don't think that it is fair to automatically assume either one scenario over another or even to assume the seemingly less likely scenario of a supposed bear market without a certain degree of evidence to support your seemingly presumptive, at best, labelling.

Agree.  Difficult to call which one is correct without further price action.

The lost dominance (over alts) of BTC this time around also clouds the picture, but we have to make some educated guesses, and watch for confirmation.

[JayJuanGee]

Majormax:  You seem to be assuming that we are in an early 2014 type price dynamics scenario rather than in a early 2013 type scenario... accordingly, you seem to be assuming the beginning of a bear market and we are less than two months into a correction (max retracement currently at 61% from $19,666 to $7625).  

There are a lot of folks who are grappling with a prediction in that regard, yet not too many folks are going to assume the beginning of a bear market based on both sparce evidence and less than two month passage of time from our most recent ATH.   It seems that you are taking the less likely scenario and assuming it to be the absolute correct one - especially when you are labelling our current status as a "bear market".

In other words, I don't think that it is fair to automatically assume either one scenario over another or even to assume the seemingly less likely scenario of a supposed bear market without a certain degree of evidence to support your seemingly presumptive, at best, labelling.

Agree.  Difficult to call which one is correct without further price action.

The lost dominance (over alts) of BTC this time around also clouds the picture, but we have to make some educated guesses, and watch for confirmation.

I understand that I am quibbling here and there with your representations, yet I would like to assert that your framing "BTC's lost dominance over alts" as if it were a negative picture about BTC.. maybe you are not saying that, but your word choice causes those kinds of inferences for me.

Do you recall throughout most of 2017, and perhaps even starting in 2016, there were a shitload of claims attempting to describe negative inferences towards bitcoin regarding the domination index, yet the fact of the matter remains that bitcoin went up a good 20x during these many claims about bitcoin supposedly experiencing meaningful competition.  Sure there are dynamics there that show that a lot of money has been pouring into the crypto space, yet I think that frequently there are erroneous claims being made about bitcoin's supposed weakness relative to the price movement of several other coin market cap coins - which frequently are just a bunch a distracting and misleading information - and if Ripple does not demonstrate that fact as an extreme, then there are a lot of misleading aspects regarding dominance and BTC's relative dominance.

Even though money moving around into various coins can have both its good and its bad aspects, I think that there are various bullish scenarios in which the total amount of money in the space shows some additional ability of bitcoin's market cap and price to go up - even while sometimes the implosions and explosions of alts can have short term price impacts on bitcoin, too.

Majormax:  I am not arguing that you are oblivious about these confusing, contradictory and even "clouding" as you proclaimed, dynamics, yet I am still quibbling a bit with both your word choice and the fact that you wanted to reiterate it as a possible influential BTC price dynamics factor.

[Majormax]

JayJuanGee:

Thanks for the interesting comments.

'Lost dominance' just means that alts have a larger share of market cap, therefore the capital flows that used to drive BTC price are changed in a meaningful way from the driving force they used to be (they have alternative places to go)....... That might or might not be a positive , but it could alter the repeating pattern of the long term chart in some way.

So I just used it as a caveat to say that the fractal nature of the long term chart could be interrupted now (either way)

The term dominance has always been used by Coinmarketcap so should not carry any bias.

I try to choose neutral terms, and it is always interesting to see how they are interpreted : a kind of a straw poll of sentiment.


You are quibbling I guess, but good quibbling often leads to novel ideas.  I read your post as finding negatives about BTC in my 'neutral' comments.

These are just semantics.  There are always different ways to see price moves. Most people start with a fixed view and interpret charts the way they need to.

[Afrikoin]

Digital cash is the ‘killer feature’ in Satoshi white paper, says Bitcoin ABC’s Amaury Sechet

https://coingeek.com/digital-cash-killer-feature-satoshi-white-paper-says-bitcoin-abcs-amaury-sechet-video/

[Afrikoin]

Testimony on “Virtual Currencies: The Oversight Role of the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission”
by
Jay Clayton
Chairman, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission https://www.banking.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/a5e72ac6-4f8a-473f-9c9c-e2894573d57d/BF62433A09A9B95A269A29E1FF13D2BA.clayton-testimony-2-6-18.pdf

[Afrikoin]