Difficulty after reward drop

[jurasofish]

Hi all,
What do we think will happen to the difficulty as the reward drops to 25BTC/block? Will ASIC miners bring it up? Will it drop because mining is suddenly not feasible for FPGA and GPU miners?
Personally I think it will drop, then rise back up a few weeks later when ASIC miners come into the game.
I want to hear your opinions though.


---Edit:
I made a bet for this:
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=673

[1715583912]

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[1715583912]

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[1715583912]

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[Stephen Gornick]

Will it drop because mining is suddenly not feasible for FPGA and GPU miners?

FPGAs have a ton better efficiency for electric consumption than do GPUs.  I doubt any FPGAs will be unplugging for a while, and the same with GPUs where the electricity is fee (e.g., included in rent)

Mostly what will matter is when the shipments begin to arrive.  If they were to ship in quantity at the end of October I doubt the charts would even register a disturbance if half the GPUs start to unplug about a month later.

[byronbb]

Hi all,
What do we think will happen to the difficulty as the reward drops to 25BTC/block? Will ASIC miners bring it up? Will it drop because mining is suddenly not feasible for FPGA and GPU miners?
Personally I think it will drop, then rise back up a few weeks later when ASIC miners come into the game.
I want to hear your opinions though.


---Edit:
I made a bet for this:
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=673

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=378

[Korbman]

Hi all,
What do we think will happen to the difficulty as the reward drops to 25BTC/block? Will ASIC miners bring it up? Will it drop because mining is suddenly not feasible for FPGA and GPU miners?
Personally I think it will drop, then rise back up a few weeks later when ASIC miners come into the game.
I want to hear your opinions though.


---Edit:
I made a bet for this:
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=673

For the most part I agree with Stephen Gornick on this one, mainly since it depends on when people get their new devices.

If they're mining via ASIC before the split, there probably won't be any change. GPUs would have dropped off by then, and mining with FPGAs and ASICs would still be quite profitable (though half as much).
If FPGA and GPU mining are the only contenders at the split, I'd say there would be a drop in difficulty, though probably not by very much. Mining via GPU is barely profitable as is (for normal single/dual cards for the most part) so I imagine they'd drop off after their profits get cut. Anyone with FPGA or substantial GPU investments would keep going, though they wouldn't be making very much any more either.

[bitcon]

GPUs all going to Litecoin..... ASICS will only fill the gap, less coins will be available and price will skyrocket.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

GPU miners are going to stop mining - that's really all.

[odolvlobo]

GPUs all going to Litecoin..... ASICS will only fill the gap, less coins will be available and price will skyrocket.

The amount of BTC available is always increasing. The reward halving just means that the increase becomes smaller. There is no reason for prices to skyrocket.

[stevegee58]

This is of course one of many "what will happen after halving day" threads.  However, it should be very interesting.

[bitcon]

GPUs all going to Litecoin..... ASICS will only fill the gap, less coins will be available and price will skyrocket.

The amount of BTC available is always increasing. The reward halving just means that the increase becomes smaller. There is no reason for prices to skyrocket.

as demand for BTC continues its upward climb, and less coins will be available per day.. there's plenty of reason BTC could very well pass $17 this winter.

[Frequency]

GPUs all going to Litecoin..... ASICS will only fill the gap, less coins will be available and price will skyrocket.

The amount of BTC available is always increasing. The reward halving just means that the increase becomes smaller. There is no reason for prices to skyrocket.

as demand for BTC continues its upward climb, and less coins will be available per day.. there's plenty of reason BTC could very well pass $17 this winter.

Come on fooks it is near end of oktober end of this week reward halving is just 5 weeks away NO SIGN of any ASIC still, so all small gpu user please pull te plug in 5 weeks and ASIC will not be around for at least another 3 or 4 month ( IF it is no SCAM) so gpu + fpga farms above 10Gh will be on top for more then 3 or 4 months in the 25BTC reward scheme.. hashrate will drop under 20Th or more Diff.also down everything could be te same....we will see...price will go up..

[stepkrav]

not another "Difficulty after reward drop" thread. Search the forum first. Just saying...