Bitcoins: designed to fail

[kloinko1n]

The world's wealth in 2007 was more or less 150 trillion $ (USD 1.5 * 10^+12) [1]
The number of people living on earth is more or less 7 billion (7 * 10^+9) [2]
The maximum number of bitcoins is 21 million (2.1 * 10^+7) [3]

This means there is 21*10^7/7*10^9 = 0.03 BTC for every world citizen.
And the current wealth, expressed in the total available number of bitcoins in USD/BTC is 1.5*10^12/2.1*1+7 = 0.5*10^12/0.7*10^7 = 0.7 *10^5 = USD 70,000 / BTC.
With inflation going like it's going now, USD 1 might be (I'm speculating here) worth only 1 UBC (micro Bitcoin) by the time all 21 million Bitcoins are created.
Does this make the bitcoin ultimately usable as a worldwide currency, replacing current currencies?

I think not, and it's built-in.


References:
[1] http://www.stockmarketfunding.com/getfile/343e5d94-2871-48a5-9aa6-550c3da0bbd2/World-Wealth-vs-World-Derivatives-1998-2007.aspx , http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/24/US_derivatives_and_US_wealth_vs_total_world_wealth_1995-2007.gif/800px-US_derivatives_and_US_wealth_vs_total_world_wealth_1995-2007.gif

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population ,
http://www.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&chd=s:ABCDEGHIJLMNOQRSTVWXYabcdfghiklmnpqrsuvwxz01245679,XXXYYZZaabccddeffgghhijjkklmmnoopqqrrsttuuvwwxxyzz&chds=0.0,1.0&chs=160x101&chco=287bf5ff&chls=2.0,1.0,0.0&chxt=x,r,x,r&chxs=0,333333,0,0,tl,333333|1,333333,0,-1,tl,333333|2,000000,11.5,-1,tl,333333|3,000000,11.5,-1,tl,333333&chxtc=0,2|1,2|2,0|3,0&chm=h,cccccc,0,1,1,1|h,cccccc,0,0.5,1,-1&chxp=2,0,82|3,5,50,95&chxl=0:|1960|2009|1:|0|4B|8B|2:|1960|2009|3:|0|4B|8B

[3] Mentioned many times here in this forum 

[1713872783]

1713872783

[1713872783]

1713872783

[FreeMoney]

Damnit.

[Reikoku]

You realise you can spend tiny fractions of a Bitcoin right?

It's not like a dollar, you can't only break it 100 ways.

[mewantsbitcoins]

[FreeMoney]

You realise you can spend tiny fractions of a Bitcoin right?

It's not like a dollar, you can't only break it 100 ways.

Oh, thank god.

[Astro]

Damn guys, shut 'er down!  We've finally found the Achilles heel we didn't think of..

Oh wait.. no

[sparomba]

Does this make the bitcoin ultimately usable as a worldwide currency, replacing current currencies?
I think not, and it's built-in.

lol, question talker...nobody likes them.

also...get your facts straight.... read: http://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

secret hint: each bitcoin can be devided by 10^8 ....now please do some more fancy calculations

[ledskof]

secret hint: each bitcoin can be devided by 10^8 ....now please do some more fancy calculations

And it can be changed to divide further.

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=2150.0

[carlerha]

The maximum number of bitcoins is 21 million (2.1 * 10^+7) [3]
[...]
This means there is 21*10^7/7*10^9 = 0.03 BTC for every world citizen.

You do realize that what we call 1 BTC is pretty subjective. There will technically be more than 21 million BITS(pieces) of coins, the number of discrete units will be ~2.1*10¹⁵ I believe.
So the actual number of potential base units pr world citizen is (2.1 * (10^15)) / (7 * (10^9)) = 300 000 (correct me if I'm wrong here)
Of course I see where you're heading, but when the world gets to a point where every citizen uses bitcoins, there will probably something new, maybe something backed by bitcoins, since bitcoins are too valuable to be practical for daily use.

[proudhon]

[istar]

Bitcoins will fail because no government on earth will let it be legal with something that they cannot control or get taxes from.

I think they will create something similar except that it will let all transactions be recorded.

But I still think bitcoins will be used as a black market for trading illegal things and for avoiding taxes.

Druglords and mafia can use bitcoins and only the italian mafia is extremly big, than you got the triads, the yakuza the mexicans etc.

So it will probably have some value.

[kloinko1n]

Does this make the bitcoin ultimately usable as a worldwide currency, replacing current currencies?
I think not, and it's built-in.

lol, question talker...nobody likes them.

also...get your facts straight.... read: http://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

secret hint: each bitcoin can be devided by 10^8 ....now please do some more fancy calculations

Just teasing    ... No, actually I was just worried to death that a bigtime failure was built in.
But let's get back to the facts indeed: then 1 micro bitcoin / USD makes BTC 1 / 10^8 = 1 dollar cent.

That means... yehey!, you're right.

Doom and destruction aren't neigh!

Ok, so the dollar cent is hiding inside the smallest possible denomination of the BTC.
Now, either this is an ingenious hint of premonition regarding the utmost stability of the BTC's value, or still 1 or 2 orders of magnitude short.
In my opinion it is the latter.

[ledskof]

Well, you might as well toss some more wikipedia stats in there and come up with how many bitcoins the distribution of wealth will leave people with;

1% of the world population own 40% of the global assets.
The richest 2% of the world population own more than 51% of the global assets
The richest 10% own 85% of the global assets.
50% of the world population own less than 1% of the global assets.
The whole global assets volume is about 125 trillion US$.
1.125 Dollar-Billionaires own 4,4 trillion US$. They own 4 times more than the 50% poor people of the world.
Over 80% of the world population lives on less than 10 US$/day.;
Over 50% of the world population lives on less than 2 US$/day;
Over 20% of the world population lives on less than 1.25 US-Dollar/day

[FreeMoney]

Bitcoins will fail because no government on earth will let it be legal with something that they cannot control or get taxes from.

I think they will create something similar except that it will let all transactions be recorded.

But I still think bitcoins will be used as a black market for trading illegal things and for avoiding taxes.

Druglords and mafia can use bitcoins and only the italian mafia is extremly big, than you got the triads, the yakuza the mexicans etc.

So it will probably have some value.

iirc there was some discussion around keeping a complete log of transactions. I think the upside was that it was the only way for Bitcoin to function at all. Wait, I just found a complete record on my computer.

[kloinko1n]

And it can be changed to divide further.

Great to see that! Thanks for setting things straight.

And for the rest of respondents like FreeMoney, mewantsbitcoins, mintaka, proudhon: I had a good laugh with your replies  

Still, I don't see why you'd want to design a currency of which 1 coin would ultimately be worth +/- 1 million dollar?

[proudhon]

And it can be changed to divide further.

Great to see that! Thanks for setting things straight.

And for the rest of respondents like FreeMoney, mewantsbitcoins, mintaka, proudhon: I had a good laugh with your replies  

Still, I don't see why you'd want to design a currency of which 1 coin would ultimately be worth +/- 1 million dollar?

I don't think the creator's intention was to design a currency of which 1 coin would ultimately be worth +/- 1 million dollars.  I think his intention was to design a digital currency that is distributed, decentralized, and pseudonymous/anonymous.

[kloinko1n]

Bitcoins will fail because no government on earth will let it be legal with something that they cannot control or get taxes from.

I think they will create something similar except that it will let all transactions be recorded.

But I still think bitcoins will be used as a black market for trading illegal things and for avoiding taxes.

Druglords and mafia can use bitcoins and only the italian mafia is extremly big, than you got the triads, the yakuza the mexicans etc.

So it will probably have some value.

Yes, I agree with that one. Bitcoins are too great a threat to the interests of the banking cabal for them to just let it take over their business. And not only business, as one Rothschild bankster already has said: 'Let me control the issue of money in a country, and I do not care who writes its laws. Because he who has control over the issuance of money, has control over the country. And I control the issuance of money.' or something close to that. We are talking here about taking control over the world out of the hands of the biggest and wealthiest (banker) families on the world, who have shown not to be shy of (having countries) starting wars to protect their interests (in two meanings) and wealth.
No doubt, as bitcoin will grow, governments, controlled by the banks -- and that includes much like all countries, except (what a coincidence) those on the 'axis of evil': Venezuela, Libia, Iran, Afghanistan (oh no, we 'solved' that one), Syria, North-Korea -- will crack down with full force on the network.
First demonising it: "Used for laundring money, drug traficking (of course the CIA is a big user of bitcoin), weapons dealing and child porn." as if the USD isn't used for this.
Then by demonising everybody who dares to use it.
This will be combined with encroaching legislation: forbidding the exchanges to keep it a virtual currency, then forbidding the network traffic of it (deep packet inspection), forbidding TOR, restricting access to internet until everybody HAS to connect every service through an ISP portal (this will be combined with a total monopoly of the big ISP corporations).
Then SWAT-team like crackdowns on the exchanges and ultimately on the private households that are using the bitcoin network (and are listed now 'as we speak') and will continue to use it after the legislation has been passed that outlaws the use of it.
Then it will be a black market thing, with high fines and imprisonment for 'perpetrators of economic crimes'.

[kloinko1n]

I don't think the creator's intention was to design a currency of which 1 coin would ultimately be worth +/- 1 million dollars.  I think his intention was to design a digital currency that is distributed, decentralized, and pseudonymous/anonymous.

Not to take over all the other currencies?
It's a little bit a pity that 'they' didn't do some 'back of the envelope' calculations like this.
But hey, they did a great job anyway 

[Soros Shorts]

And it can be changed to divide further.

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=2150.0

Kind of like a reversion from the new back to the old Turkish Lira.

I was in financial software back then and glad they did it, because some of the banking transactions in the old turkish Lira had so many zeros behind them that were at risk of overflowing the variables we used in our softwre to store them. (We only could use fixed decimal datatypes to avoid round off errors).

[cbeast]

The more things change, the more FUD stays the same.

[R2D221]

Is there a need to bring this old post back, other than just create more FUD?

[Beliathon]

This means there is (...) 0.03 BTC for every world citizen.

When the dust has settled and fiat is dead, 0.03 BTC will make a person very, very wealthy.

Because by then, .03 BTC will not be .03 BTC at all, it will be 3,000 bits - a small fortune. Spoiler: no one will be measuring wealth in Bitcoins anymore, they'll be measuring in bits.

Measuring wealth in BTC in the post-fiat era would be as absurd as measuring wealth in # of mega-yachts today.

[Newmine]

$150 trillion divided by 21 million BTC equals $7.14million/BTC.

[9kv]

So you can use satoshis for transactions!

[keithers]

Bitcoins will fail because no government on earth will let it be legal with something that they cannot control or get taxes from.

I think they will create something similar except that it will let all transactions be recorded.

But I still think bitcoins will be used as a black market for trading illegal things and for avoiding taxes.

Druglords and mafia can use bitcoins and only the italian mafia is extremly big, than you got the triads, the yakuza the mexicans etc.

So it will probably have some value.

Taxes have and always will be up to the citizen to claim their earnings.   If you choose to lie about your taxes, you may get away with it, or you may get caught and suffer the consequences.   You said above that the government cannot get taxes from BTC...they actually already are (in the form of short or long term capital gains).   You are supposed to claim your gains, just as you would on any other stock, mutual fund, or other investment vehicle...

[safari88]

while readily available and could be I guess money does not matter

because I am always looking for free never buy bitcoin for invesatsi

[CryptoCarmen]

while readily available and could be I guess money does not matter

because I am always looking for free never buy bitcoin for invesatsi

if you go just with free, well you should hope about scenarios people posted here. who knows maybe will one day 0.01 BTC really be worth fortune.

[RawDog]

I am simply stunned that the bitcoin community has people as shockingly dumb as the OP.  Maybe in the end, Bitcoin is going to fail, but it will fail because of stupid people in the community rather than because there aren't enough units.  What a moron.

[cysive]

It's a damn shame that decimal place can't be moved. A damn shame....

[keithers]

I think the OP should at least be re-worded.   I guess you could make an argument that "Bitcoin is destined to fail"  (I don't agree with this).

But Bitcoin was definitely NOT "designed to fail"   No one creates something that takes a ton of time and effort, with the intentions of it purposely failing. 

I really think BTC is almost getting headed to the point where it is "too big to fail"   There are too many brilliant minds, and too much VC money in the ecosystem to allow the protocol to fail...

[Zingg]

I think the OP should at least be re-worded.   I guess you could make an argument that "Bitcoin is destined to fail"  (I don't agree with this).

But Bitcoin was definitely NOT "designed to fail"   No one creates something that takes a ton of time and effort, with the intentions of it purposely failing. 

I really think BTC is almost getting headed to the point where it is "too big to fail"   There are too many brilliant minds, and too much VC money in the ecosystem to allow the protocol to fail...

My money is on bitcoins, but the only thing I'm worried about is if bitcoin is like the netscape of the internet. What happens if/when mozilla/chrome comes around? Will bitcoin plummet in a week cause something better comes around? Or will cryptos just act like different currencies of different countries? Each having their own value.

[RawDog]

My money is on bitcoins, but the only thing I'm worried about is if bitcoin is like the netscape of the internet.

This is a very curious point.  Marc Andreesen was the man behind Netscape.  Now, Marc Andreesen is largely behind Bitcoin.  What if he is just a major two-time loser?  On the first day Microsoft came out with a browser, I knew Netscape was DEAD.  Everyone told me I was crazy and Microsoft would never catch up.  Netscape was silly rookie garbage compared to the first IE.   

Now we have the same guy betting on bitcoin.  Could he be just as wrong about the 'Internet of money'?  Possibly. 

Just because a guy is rich doesn't mean he is right.  Andreesen might actually prove to be the biggest tech failure ever if bitcoin fails and gets replaced by a nice sweet version from Microsoft.  lol 

just kidding Marc or Mark - whatever!!!

[Mewtwo]

My money is on bitcoins, but the only thing I'm worried about is if bitcoin is like the netscape of the internet.

This is a very curious point.  Marc Andreesen was the man behind Netscape.  Now, Marc Andreesen is largely behind Bitcoin.  What if he is just a major two-time loser?  On the first day Microsoft came out with a browser, I knew Netscape was DEAD.  Everyone told me I was crazy and Microsoft would never catch up.  Netscape was silly rookie garbage compared to the first IE.   

Now we have the same guy betting on bitcoin.  Could he be just as wrong about the 'Internet of money'?  Possibly. 

Just because a guy is rich doesn't mean he is right.  Andreesen might actually prove to be the biggest tech failure ever if bitcoin fails and gets replaced by a nice sweet version from Microsoft.  lol 

just kidding Marc or Mark - whatever!!!

The plot thickens.

[Verse]

I just want to point out that using wealth is illogical.

GDP = Income. Income is expressed in currency. Wealth is expressed in goods, like houses, which may be sold for Bitcoin but are not themselves Bitcoin.

Therefore Bitcoin's maximum value should be calculated using world GDP rather than world wealth. I'm not going to calculate, it's a vapid chain of thought.

[RodeoX]

Damnit.

OMG, did that make me laugh!

You realise you can spend tiny fractions of a Bitcoin right?

It's not like a dollar, you can't only break it 100 ways.

Oh, thank god.

And this! 

[lobin]

I don't think the creator's intention was to design a currency of which 1 coin would ultimately be worth +/- 1 million dollars.  I think his intention was to design a digital currency that is distributed, decentralized, and pseudonymous/anonymous.

Not to take over all the other currencies?
It's a little bit a pity that 'they' didn't do some 'back of the envelope' calculations like this.
But hey, they did a great job anyway 

that's right.

[moriartybitcoin]

The world's wealth in 2007 was more or less 150 trillion $ (USD 1.5 * 10^+12) [1]
The number of people living on earth is more or less 7 billion (7 * 10^+9) [2]
The maximum number of bitcoins is 21 million (2.1 * 10^+7) [3]

This means there is 21*10^7/7*10^9 = 0.03 BTC for every world citizen.
And the current wealth, expressed in the total available number of bitcoins in USD/BTC is 1.5*10^12/2.1*1+7 = 0.5*10^12/0.7*10^7 = 0.7 *10^5 = USD 70,000 / BTC.
With inflation going like it's going now, USD 1 might be (I'm speculating here) worth only 1 UBC (micro Bitcoin) by the time all 21 million Bitcoins are created.
Does this make the bitcoin ultimately usable as a worldwide currency, replacing current currencies?

I think not, and it's built-in.


References:
[1] http://www.stockmarketfunding.com/getfile/343e5d94-2871-48a5-9aa6-550c3da0bbd2/World-Wealth-vs-World-Derivatives-1998-2007.aspx , http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/24/US_derivatives_and_US_wealth_vs_total_world_wealth_1995-2007.gif/800px-US_derivatives_and_US_wealth_vs_total_world_wealth_1995-2007.gif

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population ,
http://www.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&chd=s:ABCDEGHIJLMNOQRSTVWXYabcdfghiklmnpqrsuvwxz01245679,XXXYYZZaabccddeffgghhijjkklmmnoopqqrrsttuuvwwxxyzz&chds=0.0,1.0&chs=160x101&chco=287bf5ff&chls=2.0,1.0,0.0&chxt=x,r,x,r&chxs=0,333333,0,0,tl,333333|1,333333,0,-1,tl,333333|2,000000,11.5,-1,tl,333333|3,000000,11.5,-1,tl,333333&chxtc=0,2|1,2|2,0|3,0&chm=h,cccccc,0,1,1,1|h,cccccc,0,0.5,1,-1&chxp=2,0,82|3,5,50,95&chxl=0:|1960|2009|1:|0|4B|8B|2:|1960|2009|3:|0|4B|8B

[3] Mentioned many times here in this forum 

Shows your ignorance of Bitcoin unfortunately .. it is (almost) infinitely divisible

[notbatman]

In the near future...

"How would you like to pay the luxury tax on your new mega-yatch, cash, debit, credit or BTC?"

Stop the FUD!

[Oscilson]

Bitcoins will fail because no government on earth will let it be legal with something that they cannot control or get taxes from.

I think they will create something similar except that it will let all transactions be recorded.

But I still think bitcoins will be used as a black market for trading illegal things and for avoiding taxes.

Druglords and mafia can use bitcoins and only the italian mafia is extremly big, than you got the triads, the yakuza the mexicans etc.

So it will probably have some value.

BTC is not the best option for black market. It is traceable.

[Nawaytes]

In the near future...

"How would you like to pay the luxury tax on your new mega-yatch, cash, debit, credit or BTC?"

Stop the FUD!

haha, nice parable. yeah stop spreading FUD, for many people who have believed with bitcoin, and difficult to build trust someone. Do not destroy what has been built with the hard by spreading FUD. 

[Q7]

Whether it is a success or failure will depend on acceptance not how many fraction it can goes on to divide

[bank of bits]

Since Fiat currency and been shown to be manipulated to produce or extract wealth to the few that control it, Bitcoin will become the smart allternative. Yes bitcoin does have its problems yet it seems to be overcoming those problems.

[williamj2543]

Also bitcoin doesn't have to be used ALL over the world to be successful. Also we may get to a point where a satoshi is worth 1 cent, or even a dollar (but then we would need smaller decimal).

[R2D221]

STAHP! D:

This thread is from 2011. Why are you still commenting on this?

[Bitmore]

It's a damn shame that decimal place can't be moved. A damn shame....

Best post of the thread. 

[nuff]

Bitcoin is designed to emulate a deflationary product like gold. It's a test/experiment as to whether we can use an deflationary currency as opposed to an inflationary currency like US dollars. Turns out with a deflationary currency, people are less willing to spend, or only spend on what's really needed at the moment. To want to spend something now when you know that thing is gonna worth more later will be a complete opposite of what we've used think about money. The entire concept of money is not what we used to think with fiat money that is inflationary. Not a lot of people are able adapt to a complete change of the mindset towards money which has traditionally been inflationary. Not a lo of people can comprehend a deflationary currency

[borna_121136]

Bitcoin was never designed to gain anything, it was only designed to help people in terms of anonymity. So failing isn't a option.

[98problems]

I just want to point out that using wealth is illogical.

GDP = Income. Income is expressed in currency. Wealth is expressed in goods, like houses, which may be sold for Bitcoin but are not themselves Bitcoin.

Therefore Bitcoin's maximum value should be calculated using world GDP rather than world wealth. I'm not going to calculate, it's a vapid chain of thought.

Even the US dollar today is not valued anywhere near the total world GDP. During the height of the british empire, the british pound was no where near worth the value of the then world GDP. No other currency (major or not) has ever come close).

IMO the world GDP is the theoretical maximum of the total value of bitcoin, but the realistic maximum is significantly lower. 

[Oscilson]

I just want to point out that using wealth is illogical.

GDP = Income. Income is expressed in currency. Wealth is expressed in goods, like houses, which may be sold for Bitcoin but are not themselves Bitcoin.

Therefore Bitcoin's maximum value should be calculated using world GDP rather than world wealth. I'm not going to calculate, it's a vapid chain of thought.

Even the US dollar today is not valued anywhere near the total world GDP. During the height of the british empire, the british pound was no where near worth the value of the then world GDP. No other currency (major or not) has ever come close).

IMO the world GDP is the theoretical maximum of the total value of bitcoin, but the realistic maximum is significantly lower. 

Maybe just 1%.

[BTCfaucetTIME]

I just want to point out that using wealth is illogical.

GDP = Income. Income is expressed in currency. Wealth is expressed in goods, like houses, which may be sold for Bitcoin but are not themselves Bitcoin.

Therefore Bitcoin's maximum value should be calculated using world GDP rather than world wealth. I'm not going to calculate, it's a vapid chain of thought.

Even the US dollar today is not valued anywhere near the total world GDP. During the height of the british empire, the british pound was no where near worth the value of the then world GDP. No other currency (major or not) has ever come close).

IMO the world GDP is the theoretical maximum of the total value of bitcoin, but the realistic maximum is significantly lower. 

Maybe just 1%.

The max market cap of bitcoin is probably higher then 1% of world GDP (I believe it to be ~.005% of world GDP now) and I believe it to be possible for the value to go up more then 200x before it reaches it max potential, although I think it will be several decades (at least) before it reaches this potential.

[polynesia]

I just want to point out that using wealth is illogical.

GDP = Income. Income is expressed in currency. Wealth is expressed in goods, like houses, which may be sold for Bitcoin but are not themselves Bitcoin.

Therefore Bitcoin's maximum value should be calculated using world GDP rather than world wealth. I'm not going to calculate, it's a vapid chain of thought.

Even the US dollar today is not valued anywhere near the total world GDP. During the height of the british empire, the british pound was no where near worth the value of the then world GDP. No other currency (major or not) has ever come close).

IMO the world GDP is the theoretical maximum of the total value of bitcoin, but the realistic maximum is significantly lower. 

Maybe just 1%.

The max market cap of bitcoin is probably higher then 1% of world GDP (I believe it to be ~.005% of world GDP now) and I believe it to be possible for the value to go up more then 200x before it reaches it max potential, although I think it will be several decades (at least) before it reaches this potential.

We should be comparing the market value of bitcoin to the total wealth in this world, not the GDP of the world.

[Oscilson]

We should be comparing the market value of bitcoin to the total wealth in this world, not the GDP of the world.

Also the existing circulation of money supply?

[ziiiggy]

How can you design something to succeed? Everything is uncertain in this world. We still dont know if Bitcoin will succeed or not.