Happy halving day
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MoonShadow:
Quote from: shwoop on November 28, 2012, 05:57:41 PM

Quote from: slush on November 28, 2012, 05:53:44 PM

Quote from: Cryptoman on November 28, 2012, 05:51:16 PM

It's nice to see that all the naysayers were wrong, that the hash rate didn't suddenly plummet when block 210,000 was hit.


Give it some time. I would be really surprised if the hasrate won't change.


I don't think anyone suggested half of the network was sitting next to a switch waiting for 210000.
It will take some time for the affect of the halving to make its way through the network.
I'm sure a lot of gamer/miner chaps out there aren't aware of the halving and probably won't notice the drop in revenue for a while.


I'd be really surprised if the hashrate didn't change either, but keep things in perspective.  Even if the hashrate were to cut right in half, it was running at over 300 Teraflops at the flip.  Even half that is way more than is reachable by the top 10 fastest supercomputers on Earth combined.  It was never really intended that mining would be particularly profitable.  It was expected, very early, that the major miners would slowly gravitate to the colder climates and areas that electric service was particularly cheap.  The city that I expect that most mining will occur is in basements across Reykjavik, Iceland; once this whole Bitcoin project achieves international mainstream acceptance.
MoonShadow:
Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on November 28, 2012, 07:15:55 PM

Actually it was kind of cool to see hashrate shoot up with the latent capacity coming on-line to find the 210,000 block .... if there is ever a genuine 51% attack it means we can always "call up the militia reservists" ... :D ... knives, muskets bayonets, pitchforks, gpus, cpus and still they came


Yes, that's another thing.  There is massive amounts of reserve capacity for this network as well, most of which would be a net loss for the operators; but with the right motives can be brought to bear under such need.
Dansker:
Happy Halving day everybody! :)
kano:
Heh amazing how the block rate has increased.
You'd think ASIC was up and running - but not a sign of it from any one of the big 4 working on it :P
(BFL, bASIC, Avalon, ASICMINER)

Yeah 210000 was 38.5 BTC
The next 2 were 25.5 BTC so not too shabby either.

So looking at my guesses - not a single one correct for the final time but all the diff changes before it were fine :)

The actual final time simply kept get earlier and earlier as the block rate kept increasing.
The block rate really has jumped up and it has been since the last difficulty change in the 337 blocks up to halving.

So some amazing block counts as at right now - block 210040
last 144 blocks (usually 1 day) average: 7m 37.65s +31.10%
last 288 blocks (usually 2 days) average: 8m 39.24s +15.55%
last 432 blocks (usually 3 days) average: 8m 55.30s +12.09%

And of course the last 2 difficulty changes were 2.08% and 1.9% so either amazing luck changes since those small diff changes or more likely the network hash rate has really gone up quite noticeably in the last few days.

I guess we'll see again in the next few days.

Edit: and note I specifically say 'block rate' not hash rate.
Although everyone likes to call it the network hash rate, it actually is simply a calculation based purely on the block rate.
Although that is not a too inaccurate estimation of the network hashrate - it is only an estimation - since it is random statistics we are dealing with and even a '2 week' 2016 sample is not overly accurate ... (1 day samples and graphs showing them as 'hash rate' are almost random numbers IMO)
yogi:
So who had their money on -
Hash rate and transactions will sky rocket but price remain the same?
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