[Havelock][KCIM] Korb Investments – Establishing my Investment Firm, part 1

[niko]

An investment professional who can't do accounting-math. Just what we need more of around here, congratulations.

Everyone makes mistakes from time to time. I don't expect you to be perfect either. The important part is that I not only acknowledged the error, but corrected it as well

And for the record, I never made mention of myself as a professional..that would imply I do this for a living. I'm a well-versed amateur with a strong sense for business operations and a heavy background in tech 

Compared to most of "investment" schemes we've seen this year, Korbman's has been thought through and presented in detail. The problem was noticed (by Aahzman) and is being addressed. He is responsive to constructive criticism.  I don't know him personally and haven't done business with him, but I like what I see, and I'd say this is exactly what we do need more around here.

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[SAC]

Compared to most of "investment" schemes we've seen this year, Korbman's has been thought through and presented in detail. The problem was noticed (by Aahzman) and is being addressed. He is responsive to constructive criticism.  I don't know him personally and haven't done business with him, but I like what I see, and I'd say this is exactly what we do need more around here.

Realistically, the hash rate will start off around 250TH/s and increase to 400TH/s over 12 months.

Really I have already pointed out just how wrong this part of the proposal is but he somehow seems to have ignored that. To expect that the first wave of production of these devices is only going to be followed by half that capacity increase in one years time is just so far off the mark it is unbelievable that he continues to persist in using it for any calculations.

[niko]

Realistically, the hash rate will start off around 250TH/s and increase to 400TH/s over 12 months.

Really I have already pointed out just how wrong this part of the proposal is but he somehow seems to have ignored that. To expect that the first wave of production of these devices is only going to be followed by half that capacity increase in one years time is just so far off the mark it is unbelievable that he continues to persist in using it for any calculations.

My estimates show 300-400 TH/s as the equilibrium after ASIC migration. This will be pushed up or down, depending on the exchange rate, which has historically been the main factor driving difficulty up or down. Mid- and long-term future exchange rates are absolutely unknown.

[SAC]

Realistically, the hash rate will start off around 250TH/s and increase to 400TH/s over 12 months.

Really I have already pointed out just how wrong this part of the proposal is but he somehow seems to have ignored that. To expect that the first wave of production of these devices is only going to be followed by half that capacity increase in one years time is just so far off the mark it is unbelievable that he continues to persist in using it for any calculations.

My estimates show 300-400 TH/s as the equilibrium after ASIC migration. This will be pushed up or down, depending on the exchange rate, which has historically been the main factor driving difficulty up or down. Mid- and long-term future exchange rates are absolutely unknown.

So only the first batch plus little extra produced essentially. Nobody is going to run a second, third, ..... batch of these things through the production line ever again. Boy I would love to have some of what you guys are smoking.

[niko]

Realistically, the hash rate will start off around 250TH/s and increase to 400TH/s over 12 months.

Really I have already pointed out just how wrong this part of the proposal is but he somehow seems to have ignored that. To expect that the first wave of production of these devices is only going to be followed by half that capacity increase in one years time is just so far off the mark it is unbelievable that he continues to persist in using it for any calculations.

My estimates show 300-400 TH/s as the equilibrium after ASIC migration. This will be pushed up or down, depending on the exchange rate, which has historically been the main factor driving difficulty up or down. Mid- and long-term future exchange rates are absolutely unknown.

So only the first batch plus little extra produced essentially. Nobody is going to run a second, third, ..... batch of these things through the production line ever again. Boy I would love to have some of what you guys are smoking.

Running more batches costs money, and something or someone will need to absorb this cost. There are only so many sheep, and only so many coins. Therefore, yes, I expect an equilibrium in (exchange rate per difficulty), assuming no major technological breakthroughs or costly moves to smaller ASIC nodes. Regardless, we should take this discussion to the mining speculation.

[SAC]

Running more batches costs money, and something or someone will need to absorb this cost. There are only so many sheep, and only so many coins. Therefore, yes, I expect an equilibrium in (exchange rate per difficulty), assuming no major technological breakthroughs or costly moves to smaller ASIC nodes. Regardless, we should take this discussion to the mining speculation.

The bASIC is already on second pre-order plenty of sheep left to absorb the costs and there being only so many coins to go around sure has not stopped people from continuing to add capacity to the network currently. BTW this business model (pre-orders) they use requires no input costs on their part and those costs will be well under the cost of current units in additional runs as all the engineering/design work has been done, as well it also gives them their profit locked in before the production has even run.

[Korbman]

[...]

@Niko -- I've usually found it best to just ignore SAC. He's just here to troll my thread 

It actually works out in my favor as well since he keeps bumping my thread to the top of the Securities section

[SAC]

[...]

@Niko -- I've usually found it best to just ignore SAC. He's just here to troll my thread 

It actually works out in my favor as well since he keeps bumping my thread to the top of the Securities section

Yes ignore the inconvenient for your little scheme points being made, anyways the suckers that "invest" in it will see the reality in the long run. Now this don't really matter to you as your cut is in your pocket right from the start it will certainly matter to them when it all goes tits up...

[enygma]

Glad to see you've implemented dividends. I look forward to the success of this fund and any other bitcoin related funds. I've invested a decent amount into your fund so I'm hoping for good things.

[Korbman]

Glad to see you've implemented dividends. I look forward to the success of this fund and any other bitcoin related funds. I've invested a decent amount into your fund so I'm hoping for good things.

Thanks enygma! Always happy to meet and talk with investors

The cool part about Havelock is that I can schedule all interest payments ahead of time. Tomorrow, for example, there should be a notification (I think) that goes out to investors letting them know that the first interest payment is set for the 30th this month. If it works out properly, then I'll set up the schedule for the next few months to make sure things go smoothly.


And for more of a global update to everyone:
Congratulations everyone!  
We're currently sold over 580 Notes outstanding, with a little over 9400 Notes left before hitting the cap. I'd say the past 3 days have been quite successful! If this is any indication of how the Fund will proceed in the future, then I'd say we're right on track to reaching our capitalization goals to purchase a Mini Rig!

That said, I've just about finished working up the framework for the new Company Financials, which includes an analysis of the Fund (showing profitability, interest/principal payments, and how things will go for the next 14 months), as well as the company Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flows...though admittedly those last three are a bit more interesting to work with when dealing in Bitcoins instead of Dollars  
At this time, we can currently afford 4 Single SCs without a problem.

I'll post another update when I've uploaded the financials to my website and Google Docs.

[enygma]

You'll need more like myself since I own almost half of the shares outstanding.

[Korbman]

You'll need more like myself since I own almost half of the shares outstanding.

Ah, I didn't know that was you! You may own 47% now, but that'll be dropping quite a bit as I finish putting in my own money mid-November

And you're exactly right, we do need more people like you. I'm hoping issues with GLBSE get sorted out and wary individuals start investing again.

[Deprived]

And for more of a global update to everyone:
Congratulations everyone! 
We're currently sold over 580 Notes, with a little over 9400 Notes outstanding.

Just a minor niggle - ignored it first time, as thought it was just a typo.

Outstanding shares/notes/bonds are the ones that have been sold, not the unsold ones.  You have 580 notes outstanding and 9400 Notes issued but not sold.

[Korbman]

Just a minor niggle - ignored it first time, as thought it was just a typo.

Outstanding shares/notes/bonds are the ones that have been sold, not the unsold ones.  You have 580 notes outstanding and 9400 Notes issued but not sold.

Indeed, it was a typo in the second one (changed it). I don't think I was even thinking about it the first time.

Anyway, corrections added.

[Aahzman]

So, based on the 27 units example above, estimated profit would be 5.7BTC? not counting possible bonuses/fluctuations?

[....]

Oh no!! You seem to be exactly right. I created an excel sheet to calculate it out and I came up with the same answer, which has me a bit concerned given my previous statements. When I originally did my quick calculations, I did it on straight addition...meaning if you have 1 Note and you keep that 1 Note the entire time, then you'll have X% ROI because month #1 + 2 + 3 = whatever %% total.
The reality is that I needed to take a weighted average to get a proper ROI based on the current buyback program, which is [currently] a flat 25% from everyone at a time. If the program was more of a 'round robin' approach, then my original statement would still be somewhat valid.

Thank you for pointing out this huge flaw Aahzman. I will update my original projects and the update section accordingly, noting the differences.

Glad I could help, and really it was just extrapolating off the idea that the other poster had described, with 27 units being the minimum required to actually stay in the game till the final buyback...

 Investing is a new thing for me, so to kinda get my head around how things work when it comes to math n stuff, I tend to brute-force it in a spreadsheet, no fancy formulae or functions. just line-by-line simple calcs and adds, to help me understand it. 

[Korbman]

[...] I tend to brute-force it in a spreadsheet, no fancy formulae or functions. just line-by-line simple calcs and adds, to help me understand it. 

That's usually the way I do things as well, like my original financial analysis which I perfected over weeks of messing with numbers and equations. My original ROI calculations, on the other hand, I did in my head while writing up my first post back in September and didn't even think to change them as things progressed. Ah well...

Anyway, I'm happy to help with any questions you may have regarding investing. I'm no expert, but I have had my head in the game for many years

[Korbman]

Quick update:

Congratulations to everyone for a successfully first week! We currently have 646 Notes outstanding, which is more than enough to purchase 4 Single SCs (maybe 5 if the BTC price keeps rising). But why go for the Singles when you can go for the Rig!  
Let's keep it up everyone

[niko]

You are making some progress, 744 shares and counting! The whole GLBSE mess has certainly turned off many potential investors.

[Korbman]

You are making some progress, 744 shares and counting! The whole GLBSE mess has certainly turned off many potential investors.

Slowly but surely building up!
And you're quite right. Back in August I was thinking this would be easy...I mean, if people can invest $5 million into a ponzi scheme, how hard could it be to raise $100k for a legitimate business strategy? 

Oh the things I've learned in 3 months... 

[Korbman]

Excellent progress so far everyone. 3 weeks into the offering and we've sold 767 Notes, which is enough for 7 Single SCs so far.

Just a reminder, first dividends are set to be paid Friday (11/30). I'll make sure to be online that day to ensure everyone is paid properly.