ASIC adoption will probably...

[proudhon]

Just want to get an updated glance at sentiment.

[1715657097]

1715657097

[Technomage]

I'm more inclined to say up simply because it will bring Bitcoin a lot of new interest once those chips are out in the real world. It's basically the second mining boom. Anyone can buy a Jalapeno and I know SO many people who have ordered them. There will be a lot of articles, reviews, discussion on them. A lot. Once they're finally out, I mean. This will have a strong net positive effect as it will bring more people to using bitcoins similarly to 2011.

However, it's true that there will most likely be more selling of coins during the early ASIC era. And a bit more blocks on average and thus more coins produced as well. But I think that this is pretty much countered by the block reward halving. Thus my overall thoughts on the situation are that compared to where we are now, ASIC's will be net positive for the price.

[Technomage]

I'd like to add that if I take into account what the speculative circles (in my opinion wrongly) think about the ASIC effect, it could result in a net negative effect. It's the traders and speculators that move the price in reality and it's what they THINK that actually matters. In the first post and in my vote I basically ignored that effect but if I take that into account, it could be negative yes.

[lassdas]

It's the traders and speculators that move the price in reality and it's what they THINK that actually matters.

That's the point.
I doubt there will be more selling of coins during the early ASIC era,
Why should that happen? I can't see where those more coins sold would come from.
Even todays 7200BTC/day are just a small portion of the daily trading volume (15% or less), when ASICs arrive it'll only be 3600BTC mined per day.

[ElectricMucus]

If people build bigger fences around their property will this affect land prices? (Best analogy I can come up with)
You guessed - I think it won't have any effect on the price.

[sippsnapp]

I expect a short term dip, of course the outstanding amount of bitcoins is not deflated but there will be more coins available short term.
Its all about offer and demand i guess.

[lassdas]

Again, why would there be more coins available?
The network will soon produce just half the amount of coins it produces today, with or without ASICs, so why would there be more available?

That makes zero sense.

[ElectricMucus]

Again, why would there be more coins available?
The network will soon produce just half the amount of coins it produces today, with or without ASICs, so why would there be more available?

That makes zero sense.

Temporarily if the hashrate shoots up faster than the difficulty adjustment there are more blocks being solved than there should be. But once difficulty has settled that effect vanishes and if it goes down block take longer.
The effect is marginal, but some people argue that the hashrate would shoot up more than 4x which is the maximum allowed adjustment amplifying the effect.

[jjshabadoo]

I don't think you're going to see massive selling of coins once ASIC's arrive.

Here's my thoughts:

1. Most people buying large amounts of ASIC's were existing large GPU miners. They bought with BTC (from BFL) so they already had the capital and likely it was profit from their existing farms. I don't think these folks are short-sighted and therefore will likely sell incrementally as before. If price is too low they will hoard.

2. Smaller buyers don't have huge capital investments, so again they are likely to hoard if prices are too low in hopes of getting a bigger payoff down the road.

3. Most of the larger miners bought early, so they are also likely the first to receive their units. Initial difficulty rise will be propagated by these miners and they will be less likely to sell then those who receive their units later.

4. Overall less coins being mined =  lower supply at a base level. So let's say half of all newly mined coins get sold currently(which I doubt) then there will be no more coins sold than usual since half the amount of coins will be mined. This would be if EVERYONE sells the newly mined coins immediately.

Of the expected 200 TH of current pre-orders, I'd say at least half of that is being purchased by less than 100 individuals.

[crazy_rabbit]

I don't think you're going to see massive selling of coins once ASIC's arrive.

Here's my thoughts:

1. Most people buying large amounts of ASIC's were existing large GPU miners. They bought with BTC (from BFL) so they already had the capital and likely it was profit from their existing farms. I don't think these folks are short-sighted and therefore will likely sell incrementally as before. If price is too low they will hoard.

Of course no one individual knows for sure what the other miners will do. The threat of one miner with an ASIC dumping is so great that it most likely will temp SOMEONE to dump. If only the regular people who fear big miners dumping at their expense.

2. Smaller buyers don't have huge capital investments, so again they are likely to hoard if prices are too low in hopes of getting a bigger payoff down the road.

Smaller buyers might also be more short-sighted if they can't/won't invest large sums of cash. In which case they want their ROI as short as possible. Dump while prices are high, recoup your investment and then hoard. If people have trouble parting with a couple hundred dollars, they will have trouble holding onto their BTCs

3. Most of the larger miners bought early, so they are also likely the first to receive their units. Initial difficulty rise will be propagated by these miners and they will be less likely to sell then those who receive their units later.

So did a lot of non-miners and small-time miners. Not to mention that the other ASIC developers aren't nearly as large as BFL and if they are one person operations might be more tempted then others to test-mine their equipment as soon as they get it working AND dump at the same time to recoup their investment of time and money.

4. Overall less coins being mined =  lower supply at a base level. So let's say half of all newly mined coins get sold currently(which I doubt) then there will be no more coins sold than usual since half the amount of coins will be mined. This would be if EVERYONE sells the newly mined coins immediately.

Not everyone has to sell newly mined coins. It just needs to be enough people selling newly mined coins to trigger existing holders to panic: either to dump and get out, or dump with the hopes of getting in lower. The threshold is very small I think.

[Comodore]

There is no corelation between A: mining dificulty B: price
There is only corelation between B to A.

But there will be spike in mining difficulty if ASIC gets to people in fast pace. However it will affect price only a bit in both sides.

[Mushoz]

There is no corelation between A: mining dificulty B: price
There is only corelation between B to A.

But there will be spike in mining difficulty if ASIC gets to people in fast pace. However it will affect price only a bit in both sides.

I think it won't affect the price much. It will have effects both positive and negative for the price, and I believe these effects will effectively cancel each other out. I do think they are a much needed step to improve the network against possible future attacks.

[bobitza]

ASIC influence
I think it will all depend on how the miners calculated their return on investment. If a lot of the miners bought with real $ or have big $ running expenses, there will be an incentive to exchange some/most/all of the mined coins to fiat. That will bring downward pressure on the price

Reward 50%
However in the same time, the reward gets halved so that's upward pressure on the price.

In the end, the two might cancel each other so there is no movement on the price.

[molecular]

TED says: "I DON'T FUCKING KNOOOOWWWww, AAAAAAHHH!"

[FreeMoney]

Random spec:

A lot of people mine BTC with GPU, they sell some, but have also found things they like to do with them directly. When ASICs bring the difficulty some will turn in to buyers and many who were using part and selling part will just stop selling, and some will quit mining and buy any they need, or stop selling in advance to avoid needing to buy any time soon.

Given the willingness of the first batch of ASIC receivers to pre order way in advance with lots of uncertainty they are probably not the type to need to sell immediately and presumably they have faith in long term bitcoin anyway.

Factoring in that some new players will have much larger amounts available to them I expect trend up with spikes down.