Will we have higher fees and lower network security after halving day?

[phishead]

I thought that we already have so much hash rate that even if we have a drop of let's say 30% because some miners will definitely leave after that halving, we would still be largely OK. Even the latest rises in difficulty are proving us that we have really a lot of hash rate at the moment.

So what am I missing here in my thinking?

Well I would think that if major miners were to drop, some mining farms will pick up the slack and start investing more to produce an even higher hashrate to secure more of a percentage in the mining industry percentile.  This halving will ultimately create a higher amount of centralization and less security for people making transactions... so it will be a push comes to shove type of environment where some major holders will cash out some of there stash because of the lack of trust, while keeping some of their coins for speculations of a higher price point.

[pitham1]

Fees could rise after the halving day, it is controlled by the miners. Since they receive less from block rewards, they might only include transactions with higher fees to compensate. This is unlikely but possible.

High priority transactions (which include aged inputs) have certain space set aside for them in each block. So the miners cannot decide to include only transactions with higher fees.

[neonshium]

It will depend on price of bitcoin, difficulty on mining and how much watts consume the miners. If price is high miners will not stop, if price is low possibly the difficult will descent as some miners will stop. There are more than one variables.
About the fee cost, it depends also on bitcoin price. The same fee is higher in dollars if Bitcoin is higher.

Yes everything is based on bitcoin network difficulty. When the miners leave the mining due to lesser rewards there are chances of less difficulty which may lead to higher fees due to fewer miners. But lower security of network not at all possible due to bitcoin mining competition.

[NorrisK]

I guess less miners will switch of than you think. Switching off makes the competition mine more coins, while you gain nothing --> pure loss for you, gains for the competition.

Also, if miners still see it as a long term investment, meaning they want to hold on to the coins, they are not even looking at the current price to make their calculations.

They might switch off some older miners that consume too much electricity, but they will have been replaced by then.

[Searing]

Bitcoin halving day will soon be upon us; I'm predicting a nice bump in price around this time, a huge drop in the hashing power of the mining community and a bump in fees.
Not everyone agrees with me but mark my words will see a huge drop in hash rate and thus in the security of the network after halving day. I hope the network is ready.


Made edits sorry I don't want to be stuck in speculation no one comes here.

LK is coming out this Spring with a 'supposed' 14nm chip and also home miners.

Here is the below thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1033676.0

Some have speculated on the thread (if I remember right) 3TH home miners at very reasonable costs (again unicorn dream here just saying if legit) on the above link.



Bitfury is running out it 100 million USD data hall with its new chips



http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-details-100-million-georgia-data-center/


KNC is still expanding (I think) its giant Data hall with its 'private' chips and IPO $$$


http://thenodepole.com/2015/06/04/kncminer-to-build-new-20mw-greenfield-datacenter-in-the-node-pole/


Spondoolies has released video of their SP50 commercial miner (not for home users and probably only bulk sales too boot) Likely they are 30k a pop at least.

here is the youtube video of them setting up their 'private IPO $$$ farm" first ..then maybe they will let a few SP50's trickle out after its full..the data hall(s)? that is.

What a monster 110 TH miner Was posted Oct 7th You Tube video below

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgHuyItPUfg

What the spondoolies site says about the SP50. No price or availablity yet.

http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/products/sp50



This was just in today's google search of bitcoin mining  ..below is the link

]http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogeraitken/2015/10/20/bitcoin-group-bnktothefuture-attracts-3m-to-fund-investment-in-worlds-first-mining-ipo/]



And then you have Bitmain and other China farms etc we don't know about.



IMHO if all the above comes to past (remember LK at the top of this post? ... they will imho have a large miner data farm also ...with home miners and of course sell chips I'd imagine ..unlike some of the others)

Anyway I bet the difficulty rates DOUBLE at least on this splash before halving of BTC...likely more so..again IMHO.
 Also in the race to be first...you can't be last..so I expect them all to dump about the same time this winter...it is gonna be quite the 'asteroid hit' imho)  


So I see no drop in mining.......centralization ..sure...but probably imho halving will not have a heck of a lot of effect on price imho with the above..

In that MOST data hall mining operations pay out to USD daily to keep the books etc...so a lot of the same 'selling pressure' as these centralized farms ...drive difficulty up and price down ie sideways that we've been seeing all year MAY continue in 2016.

Anyway my bet on price etc is around and after halving a big 'ho hum' and the direction being bitcoin's favorite is 'sideways' on price etc

Hope I'm wrong...but the next round of silliness is gonna happen if any of the above comes thru as they seem to want to state it in the above links again .if legit an realistic on doing such as they are saying in the above companies links I put up.

Then again ...likely I am wrong (chime in here) I did at one time drink the BFL kool aid..(got a refund thru luck) but still ..should caution those who think I know squat with that disclaimer , but above is my opinion at this time ..ie it is gonna get REAL ugly next year difficulty wise in my view! Also in price with the dump of coins to usd in mass.
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