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Author Topic: Double Trouble 2! Double your money within 7 days!  (Read 13157 times)
bitcoinlottery
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June 07, 2011, 12:02:23 PM
 #61

I think next time (at the end of this game, at least 7 days from now on) I will anounce when exactly the game begins (in UTC). Then everybody can play about the same time Cool...

I think everybody should have an equal time period, or we can say each bet has the same lifetime, for example 7 days or 3 days. So if I bet at Monday this week, the life of this bet will be ends at the next Monday, during the lifetime, the owner of the bet has opportunity to win his/her double. The lifetime parameter is one key parameter of the game, of course it can be adjusted to a relatively fixed time as the game goes on day by day. After the change, the game is endless and each bet has the same lifetime.
Good idea! I will think about that.

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billyjoeallen
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June 07, 2011, 12:12:28 PM
 #62

I doubled my money anyway. i bought in at 9$/BTC and then it went up to 18.

If you double your BTC count you are effectively 4x'ing your investment.
Of course you have to "cash" out at some point and then you go back into fiat which is losing it's value.

Good point. I'm not planning on cashing out, so I guess you could say I got my money at half price.

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1Ctd7Na8qE7btyueEshAJF5C7ZqFWH11Wc

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hawks5999
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June 07, 2011, 01:55:10 PM
 #63

yay, the 7,5btc guy payed the beer I'm drinking right now ^^ thx

You're welcome!

Double Trouble 2 works!


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herbertfilby
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June 07, 2011, 03:02:38 PM
 #64

So where are we in the list? I've completely lost track haha.
Ookami
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June 07, 2011, 03:27:26 PM
 #65

I hope this game doesn't change next round *g* Wouldn't make half as much sense if it becomes an endless game.
hawks5999
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June 07, 2011, 03:40:50 PM
 #66

So where are we in the list? I've completely lost track haha.

We are trying to fill the first $5 submission after the $7.5

997 cents to go for next double

http://www.skulpt.org/ has an online Python processor where you can drop the code and add in received amounts and see where we are.

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hawks5999
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June 07, 2011, 03:43:27 PM
 #67

I hope this game doesn't change next round *g* Wouldn't make half as much sense if it becomes an endless game.

Yeah, there is no game involved in an endless process. Perhaps the game mechanics will only become clear to players as we approach the end of 7 days.


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herbertfilby
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June 07, 2011, 05:38:30 PM
 #68

Just added 1.

As for endgame, yeah, I think it ends when the stakes get too high and people aren't willing to put in anymore. The nice thing about this particular version is that you don't need to double down every time, but it does make getting payouts slower unless we get some bigger bets.
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June 07, 2011, 06:35:17 PM
 #69

The other nice thing is that it starts again in 7 days. I think the next time through there will be more dynamics at play as people understand the mechanics more.

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■ ■  ■               
LEDGER  WALLET    ████
■■■ ORDER NOW! ■■■
              LEDGER WALLET
Smartcard security for your BTCitcoins
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
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hawks5999
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June 07, 2011, 10:52:24 PM
 #70

I've been playing with some of the numbers so far and it's kind of interesting:

So far:

Amount Sent: 43.87 BTC
Amount Paid: 42.74 BTC
Average Sent: .93 BTC
Median Sent: .27 BTC
Time from First Sent to Second Sent: 1 hour
Time from First Sent to Last Sent: 67 hours
Time since Last Sent: 5 hours
Time from First Sent to First Paid: 5.5 hours
Time since Last Paid: 16 hours

8.92 BTC to go for next double

and a side note: mt gox at 20.36

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■ ■  ■               
LEDGER  WALLET    ████
■■■ ORDER NOW! ■■■
              LEDGER WALLET
Smartcard security for your BTCitcoins
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Justsomeforumuser
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June 08, 2011, 12:11:59 AM
 #71

ITT: Moar egyptian slaves, building pyramids.

Ho-Hum.
herbertfilby
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June 08, 2011, 12:29:32 AM
 #72

Indeed
herbertfilby
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June 08, 2011, 01:46:03 AM
 #73

So where are we in the list? I've completely lost track haha.

We are trying to fill the first $5 submission after the $7.5

997 cents to go for next double

http://www.skulpt.org/ has an online Python processor where you can drop the code and add in received amounts and see where we are.

Where are we at?
hawks5999
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June 08, 2011, 03:58:25 AM
 #74

8.92 BTC in gets you your 10 BTC out.

Then 8 BTC in gets the 4 BTC out after you.

Then it's .2, 10, .4, 6, 4, 2, 1.36, .18, .4, .1, 2 to get the rest out.

At that point it's 17.84 to get out the 8.92 in to get your 10 out. Then 16, .4, 20, .8, 12, 8, 4...

See how that works?

The better game right now is on mt. gox though, I think. We may be seeing double on there in under 7 days. Probably thanks to Senator Schumer.

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■ ■  ■               
LEDGER  WALLET    ████
■■■ ORDER NOW! ■■■
              LEDGER WALLET
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herbertfilby
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June 08, 2011, 04:27:29 AM
 #75

Ooh, I thought we were only a few cents away.
There were so many transactions, I didn't know if something got missed like earlier.

Makes sense, thanks! I'll probably contribute more just to keep the pyramid stable for a bit longer. No need to be greedy  Grin
bitcoinlottery
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June 08, 2011, 09:04:16 AM
 #76

I hope this game doesn't change next round *g* Wouldn't make half as much sense if it becomes an endless game.
I am still thinking about it. Why wouldn't it make sense?

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Ookami
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June 08, 2011, 10:34:37 AM
 #77

Because this game lives off people who want to make quick money. Giving constant interest in the game the time to double the money will increase. In that scenario it will reach the max ttl for each bid at which point half the people will have nothing (they won't have anyway even with the current design, but the winners will be another group). At that point people should lose interest and the game will die as even more people lose.
Remember, this is a ponzi scheme and those *are* not sustainable.
The only reason to want a change to the current system is the hope to beat the flaws which is just not possible.
bitcoinlottery
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June 08, 2011, 01:12:31 PM
 #78

Because this game lives off people who want to make quick money. Giving constant interest in the game the time to double the money will increase. In that scenario it will reach the max ttl for each bid at which point half the people will have nothing (they won't have anyway even with the current design, but the winners will be another group). At that point people should lose interest and the game will die as even more people lose.
Remember, this is a ponzi scheme and those *are* not sustainable.
The only reason to want a change to the current system is the hope to beat the flaws which is just not possible.
No, the people would in the continious game have lives, so they bet on "will it be doubled within 7 (or less) days?" and if it did not, the ticket is gone (but not the rest of the money, that still stays in the game). I think that's nice.

Bitcoin Lottery
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Double Trouble
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hawks5999
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June 08, 2011, 03:38:26 PM
 #79

"Lives" are an interesting twist. I'd be curious to see how that works. However, as is pointed out, this is a pure ponzi and it only takes a significantly large entrant to kill the game. As we see right now, a 5, 4, 5 entrance has dried up entries. Partly because the exchange has doubled since the start but mostly because the average entrant is <1 BTC. People entering now with an average entrant have little hope of getting double out since 28 BTC needs to be paid just to move on to payout .05 and .5 entrants.

I think a change in the mechanics that would keep it running is to cap entrants to <1 BTC. Of course that number might diminish each week as exchanges rise.

No doubt that you will do well from this @bitcoinlottery but you'll likely do better by capping and keeping this a small stakes venture. 100 people putting in .5 will do you better than 3 putting in 5. In the end, you will walk away with unclaimed funds. I just think your take and the longevitiy will be better in a small stakes game.

■ ▄▄▄
■ ███
■ ■  ■               
LEDGER  WALLET    ████
■■■ ORDER NOW! ■■■
              LEDGER WALLET
Smartcard security for your BTCitcoins
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
Decentralized. Open. Secure.
herbertfilby
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June 08, 2011, 05:20:20 PM
 #80

I think with the fast pace of the Internet, cutting the expiration date for a bet down to, maybe 1-3 days would work even better.

When your bid expires, it redistributes the pyramid and makes it sustainable longer since it has more cash to play with now. I wouldn't know the exact game rules as to how this would get distributed, but just an idea  Smiley
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