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Author Topic: Good read on the future of the dollar  (Read 1598 times)
Poppy
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October 06, 2015, 01:04:49 PM
 #21

IMO this is one of the more insightful and succinct recent analyses of the Economist magazine (the last defender of the modern world system:)

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21669875-americas-economic-supremacy-fades-primacy-dollar-looks-unsustainable-dominant-and

The dollar has dominated the financial and monetary system for more than 50 years.  Even though there has been talks about the rise of yuan, the dollar still dominates.
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MasterYii
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October 06, 2015, 02:33:22 PM
 #22

IMO this is one of the more insightful and succinct recent analyses of the Economist magazine (the last defender of the modern world system:)

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21669875-americas-economic-supremacy-fades-primacy-dollar-looks-unsustainable-dominant-and

The dollar's future is very interesting I wonder in 5 years time will it still be at use? Or maybe replaced.
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October 06, 2015, 03:31:16 PM
 #23

Quote


You don't have to move.
Just move your assets.  Smiley

Meh.. I don't really see a positive future for the U.S. In general so I think moving in the near future would be beneficial to me.

You are in big wrong. To many people from all the other countries apply to go at United States and if they win it is a great party for those. They go there without nothing and without the needed knowledge. They want only to enter there and then make the impossible to adapted to the life of the Americans. There are intellectuals which make laborer work only to stay there and to secure a future to their children. You are there and want to move? If someone in my country will hear this will remain thunderstruck and shocked.
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October 06, 2015, 04:40:09 PM
 #24

IMO this is one of the more insightful and succinct recent analyses of the Economist magazine (the last defender of the modern world system:)

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21669875-americas-economic-supremacy-fades-primacy-dollar-looks-unsustainable-dominant-and

The dollar has dominated the financial and monetary system for more than 50 years.  Even though there has been talks about the rise of yuan, the dollar still dominates.

Based on the unfortunately limited historical data points on global currencies in the modern West, a very rough estimate would be 100 years for each reigning top dog under monetary inflation.

The Dutch Golden Age (where monetary inflation took the form of public debt rather than money itself, but with no essential difference) went from early 1600s to late 1600s to early 1700s.

British global monetary dominance went from about 1815 to 1914 (onset of World War I.)

The US was ready to be heir for this status after the founding of the Fed in 1913, but the dollar started rapidly playing the role of gold in the global system only after World War I (1918.)

I will admit that, with data this sparse, it's probably best not to trust it too much, but here it is FWIW.  (And if you're the superstitious type, the almost exact 100-year figures are pretty eerie.)
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October 06, 2015, 04:59:50 PM
 #25

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You don't have to move.
Just move your assets.  Smiley

Meh.. I don't really see a positive future for the U.S. In general so I think moving in the near future would be beneficial to me.

You are in big wrong. To many people from all the other countries apply to go at United States and if they win it is a great party for those. They go there without nothing and without the needed knowledge. They want only to enter there and then make the impossible to adapted to the life of the Americans. There are intellectuals which make laborer work only to stay there and to secure a future to their children. You are there and want to move? If someone in my country will hear this will remain thunderstruck and shocked.

I will admit that the US looks very different from the inside than from the outside.  (Looks better from the outside.)  Life is still not too bad for most people, but to have a good career these days, you basically need to be in finance, technology, or be lucky.  The strong dollar over the last few decades is pricing most other people out of global markets (and global products flooding into the US itself,) and the elites are *not* about to let the dollar decline (since they receive so many benefits from issuing financial assets) if they can help it.  (If this is sustained, it would be similar to the Dutch situation, below.)

We know the US will lose reserve currency status at some point.  Historically, life after loss of this status was OK for Britain, as US monetary power rose immediately after World War I and was happy to help ease Britain's monetary decline.  But I imagine the story must be different when this happened to the Netherlands (after about 1700.)  Life was good for the already-rich and the people who worked in a prosperous financial industry, but I imagine everyone else must have had a pretty tough downgrade in living standards.

For the US, the next ranking (eligible) power is China, which is not friendly.  The only hope for the US IMO is that the world bypasses China and give global reserve status to India in a few decades, but India is still far behind China economically.  My bet is still on a Dutch-style, not British-style transition for the US.
Xenoph0bia
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October 06, 2015, 06:57:04 PM
 #26

I think dollar will be collapse in future but will remain the main currency for international trade. Yes it does not look good for years dollar its falling against the euro and british pound and it aint fighting back so the future is not so bright. It also depends on a lot of things and factors like interest rates, the growth rate of the economy and growth rate of other economies etc.
popovicbit
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October 06, 2015, 08:39:04 PM
 #27

I think it is hard to compare the length of time the USD will be top dog with currencies of past empires. We live in a totally different world and there are plenty of different factors that those empires didn't face. Sure, things like over extension of military and over leveraging are common themes among declining empires, but I think the world/US economy post WW2 and especially since the 70's are truly uncharted waters. I do not think this experiment will end well and I feel like it is impossible to predict what will come next. All this quantitative easing, based on their(the fed) past experience, was supposed to bring us out of this recession quicker/stronger. Their unwillingness to raise interest rates because what they expected to happen by now has not, should be people very uneasy about the future of the economy and the dollar.
n2004al
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October 08, 2015, 02:02:19 PM
Last edit: October 20, 2015, 12:16:37 PM by n2004al
 #28

I think dollar will be collapse in future but will remain the main currency for international trade. Yes it does not look good for years dollar its falling against the euro and british pound and it aint fighting back so the future is not so bright. It also depends on a lot of things and factors like interest rates, the growth rate of the economy and growth rate of other economies etc.

If your prediction will become true there is no sense on it. If the us dollar collapse in the future there is now chance that it continue to be the main currency in international trade. Who will want one currency which is collapse or collapsing in continuation? Only one stupid. Because using that money will lose from the collapse. Needed to use more money the next time of buying something in the same amount. There is no sense to do this.

As for the fall of dollar against euro your are again wrong. Only this year us dollar has gain about 25% of its value. See for more this article: http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/16/investing/us-dollar-fastest-rise-40-years/
operrajunk74
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October 09, 2015, 07:47:09 PM
 #29

I think future of the dollar is not so bright but will remain the main currency for global trade. Over the years dollar is falling against the EURO and pound,  its not fighting back so the future is not so bright. Totally agreed as someone said earlier that it also depends on a lot of things and factors like interest rates, the growth rate of the economy and growth rate of other economies etc.
pattu1
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October 09, 2015, 11:44:05 PM
 #30

If your prediction will become true there is no sense on it. If the us dollar collapse in the future there is now chance that it continue to be the main currency in international trade. Who will want one currency which is collapse or collapsing in continuation? One one stupid. Because using that money will lose from the collapse. Needed to use more money the next time of buying something in the same amount. There is no sense to do this.

Even if I believe the dollar might collapse, I can still continue to use the dollar as long as my exposure is hedged. Moreover, nobody expects the dollar to collapse overnight. It will be a slow decay.
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October 19, 2015, 05:55:03 AM
 #31

If your prediction will become true there is no sense on it. If the us dollar collapse in the future there is now chance that it continue to be the main currency in international trade. Who will want one currency which is collapse or collapsing in continuation? One one stupid. Because using that money will lose from the collapse. Needed to use more money the next time of buying something in the same amount. There is no sense to do this.

Even if I believe the dollar might collapse, I can still continue to use the dollar as long as my exposure is hedged. Moreover, nobody expects the dollar to collapse overnight. It will be a slow decay.

Yes there is no chance of dollar to collapse in a single day. But we can expect a slow down in dollar's appreciations against all major currencies as well as bitcoin. Bitcoin would replace dollar from the world wide currency reference. Bitcoin would be used as international medium of exchange.

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