I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.

[marcus_of_augustus]

I would look at it from a different standpoint.
Considering that (believe it or not) 90%, if not more of population, knows jackshit about
computers, having a up and running altcoin/bitcoin wallet with even tiny amount of
coins in it, makes one an elite.
Riches or wealth not always are measured in the amount of money on the account.
Knowledge and experience with modern technology, IMO are one of those unmeasured
riches.
Sure that 20, 50 coins (relatively) are not that huge amount of cash but consider how many
working hours, problems solving, XP etc that quantity consumed. No body will rob you from this, maybe accept Alzheimer

If you know how to operate BTC, if you understand how it works, you already are among elite.
I do realise that this is some form of wishful thinking but really most people cant change their email password without serious stress producing problems...where we talk about most advance net tech. on daily basis.  
 

... this guy gets it. The new money is information.

[1713999144]

1713999144

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

It's already difficult making assuptions and speculations in terms of absolute values. Probabilities would be better, but this way you lose the point of an estimation. The estimation is a simple idea of what is it worth for you. If you put probabilities you could have an infinity number of estimations which makes no sense.

It is neither impossible nor necessarily confusing to outline probabilities for various scenarios. 

Below are two probabilities' projections that I made.

The below first one I made on March 7, 2016:

500$ btc when?

Probably as a result of the block reward halving, so in the summer. Nobody can unequivocally tell you that though.

Yeah...... I agree generally summer-ish.

Based on current market dynamics, I would predict going above $500 to be anywhere between 1 day and 2 years.


In my current thinking, the range of probabilities of going above $500 would look something like this.

1-5 days   = less than 2%

6-15 days   = less than 8%

16-30 days  = about 20%

31-60 days  = about 30%

61-120 days = about 50%

121-364 days = about 80%

1 year to 2 years = about 95%


Any better predictions?  


By the way, I would think that at this current moment and these current market conditions, most regular and somewhat knowledgable bitcoiners would also place the odds of bitcoin prices going above $500 first to be better than the odds of going below $300 first, but I'm sure that there are a number of outlier opinions on that.

Below is another prediction of probabilities that I made on May 10, 2016:

By the way bother, you shocked me when I saw you believeing in $25K - $250K within 5-10 years as I don't know if you re-call or not when we were talking on PM, you had nearlly 0.x% chance that we will reach those values within the given timeframe.

Don't get me wrong, you are a buddy and brother of mine, I just see and understand you are a bull and not a permabull like the minority rest of us.

I would like to know what caused to elevate your bullishness to that level, I'm extremely happy btw to see you crazy like us

I understand what you are saying when you assert that it appears that I may have become more bullish in the past several months; however, really, in spite of the apparent inconsistencies, I don't believe that I have become more bullish than previously without some kind of actual reason based on actual market performance (at least, not in any significant or apparently contradictory way).

More or less, I think about it like this.  There is almost no way that the performance of bitcoin is completely mathematical (sure there is quite a bit of math involved in terms of network effects and reliability of the infrastructure etc) because it largely involves the behaviors (actions and reactions) of human beings.  So even though some things in bitcoin can be determined by math, we cannot really know how the behavior of human beings is going to play out and affect bitcoin in both positive and negative ways.

Look, we PM'd each other in September 2015, a week or two before bitcoin prices took off into a 2x bull run, in which none of us could have really anticipated, and also after nearly 2 years of downward price manipulation.  Those factors, and the place that we are at the moment, affect viewpoint - short term and long term and the various measures that may need to be taken in order to protect one's position (and investment).

There have been a lot of decent developments since September 2015, and also some real significant tests of the downside of bitcoin's price under those recent scenarios.  

Actually, when I PM'd you in September 2015, I gave you very specific probability ranges for various prices in the 5 year projection and the 10 year projection, and in my most recent post, I asserted "decent and reasonable possibilities of $25k to $250k".  Anyhow, I believe the outline of my September 2015 predictions and viewpoints can serve as a very decent thought experiment, and yeah, surely I would not mind filling those in again with actual guestimates of my feelings and viewpoint as of today.  If you want a follow-up post, then I will do it.. I think that it is a very good topic for this thread and for others to chime in if they want.

Thank at first my friend for getting my point the correct way and understood that I care for our friendship

Second, I would like to see a follow-up post please comparing your Sept. 2015 predictions and possibilities with the $25K-$250K and the reasons you believe in for the $25K-$250K ones as well.

I know this will take time and effort from you, thanks in advance and really so much appreciated, but as I always said, I always learn from you guys, especially from my dear friends, like you

Thank you for this discussion point. 

I believe it is a good thought exercise to consider our own views of the future and price possibilities (in our own thinking), and surely such an exercise can be specific and at the same time demonstrate how our subjective feelings can materialize into somewhat evolving views of probabilities. 

Here’s the substance of what I predicted to you via PM in late September 2015.

Probably, the below is a decent snapshot of my opinion... [regarding] 10 years and $100K

5 years:
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 10-20% chance
$500 to $1000 20-25% chance
$1000 to $5000 15-20% chance
$5000 to $20,000 < 5% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 < 3% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 2% chance

Here’s my current speculation, and I feel that my numbers have not changed too much.  Of course, I am no expert, and I am kind of guessing off the seat of my pants and based on the totality of my current information and impression of circumstances regarding how the space has been developing:

5 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 5-25% chance
$500 to $1000 25-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 8-30% chance
$5000+ about 8% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 1.5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 1.5-3.5% chance
$300 to $500 3.5-15% chance
$500 to $1000 15-22% chance
$1000 to $5000 20-40% chance
$5000 to $20,000  5-15% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 3-10% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 3% chance



I would be interested to see how others plug in these kinds of predictions.

[bitebits]

I would look at it from a different standpoint.
Considering that (believe it or not) 90%, if not more of population, knows jackshit about
computers, having a up and running altcoin/bitcoin wallet with even tiny amount of
coins in it, makes one an elite.
Riches or wealth not always are measured in the amount of money on the account.
Knowledge and experience with modern technology, IMO are one of those unmeasured
riches.
Sure that 20, 50 coins (relatively) are not that huge amount of cash but consider how many
working hours, problems solving, XP etc that quantity consumed. No body will rob you from this, maybe accept Alzheimer

If you know how to operate BTC, if you understand how it works, you already are among elite.
I do realise that this is some form of wishful thinking but really most people cant change their email password without serious stress producing problems...where we talk about most advance net tech. on daily basis.  
 

... this guy gets it. The new money is information.

It is all about your reference. Bitcoin is (still) inevitably experienced in a bubble.

[Superbitzz]

Any one caring more than 1 full bitcoin to their wallet is part of the 0.003% richest world population. Yes it takes only this small amount to be hold in bitcoin to be in the 0.003% richest people who owns some bitcoin. I also agree that if not we will be soon the new wealthy elite. Bitcoin empowers people.

yes you have estimate correctly. but what about the price after 4 to 6 years. and holding bitcoin from the present time. i think there will be no dount about this. it is a fact that bitcoin can make a person so rich that he can consider himself in the list of wealthy elite class people.

[hermanhs09]

I understand what is all about this thread,it was made a long time ago.
Back then,people using bitcoin were really a elite,but now too many people know about BTC im so sorry

[rhino34567]

I disagree with you sir that was a false statement that you have made.

[entrepmind23]

http://astrohacker.com/ahc/bitcoin-is-the-economic-singularity/

After reading this, the scale of black market and digital economies and the effect Bitcoin will have on them I am pretty certain we are going to be very wealthy men -- even with a sum as small as 10 Bitcoins. It's just so hard to believe. We are only in the beginning storms with these significant rallies from 10 to 20 dollars. I will not be surprised to see prices from hundreds to thousands in the coming months.

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

What are you going to do with your Bitcoin wealth once your coins hit upwards of $10,000 a pop?

Even though this post was made five years ago, I still believe that bitcoin has a future.Its value will go up probably as high as $10,000. I regret when I didn't know about it years ago because I became interested in it this year only but still I believe that I will still be one of the new wealthy elite because bitcoin is still in its childhood stage. Maybe in 5-10 years time from now, the target price of $10,000 will be hit.

[CoinBreader]

http://astrohacker.com/ahc/bitcoin-is-the-economic-singularity/

After reading this, the scale of black market and digital economies and the effect Bitcoin will have on them I am pretty certain we are going to be very wealthy men -- even with a sum as small as 10 Bitcoins. It's just so hard to believe. We are only in the beginning storms with these significant rallies from 10 to 20 dollars. I will not be surprised to see prices from hundreds to thousands in the coming months.

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

What are you going to do with your Bitcoin wealth once your coins hit upwards of $10,000 a pop?

Even though this post was made five years ago, I still believe that bitcoin has a future.Its value will go up probably as high as $10,000. I regret when I didn't know about it years ago because I became interested in it this year only but still I believe that I will still be one of the new wealthy elite because bitcoin is still in its childhood stage. Maybe in 5-10 years time from now, the target price of $10,000 will be hit.

Maybe yes maybe not, but the thing is that we have to own by then 20-30 btc to consider our selfs the new wealthy elites!

[warwar]

http://astrohacker.com/ahc/bitcoin-is-the-economic-singularity/

After reading this, the scale of black market and digital economies and the effect Bitcoin will have on them I am pretty certain we are going to be very wealthy men -- even with a sum as small as 10 Bitcoins. It's just so hard to believe. We are only in the beginning storms with these significant rallies from 10 to 20 dollars. I will not be surprised to see prices from hundreds to thousands in the coming months.

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

What are you going to do with your Bitcoin wealth once your coins hit upwards of $10,000 a pop?

Even though this post was made five years ago, I still believe that bitcoin has a future.Its value will go up probably as high as $10,000. I regret when I didn't know about it years ago because I became interested in it this year only but still I believe that I will still be one of the new wealthy elite because bitcoin is still in its childhood stage. Maybe in 5-10 years time from now, the target price of $10,000 will be hit.

Yup you're right the target price is with in $10,000 to $20,000 in the future . Then if the target price would be achieve and you do have 5-7 btc then you are one of the wealthy elite but for now the price of bitcoin keeps falling after the halving and lets just expect that pretty soon it will go up. So lets just earn a lot of bitcoin if the target price would be achieve then thats nice

[tampazeus]

http://astrohacker.com/ahc/bitcoin-is-the-economic-singularity/

After reading this, the scale of black market and digital economies and the effect Bitcoin will have on them I am pretty certain we are going to be very wealthy men -- even with a sum as small as 10 Bitcoins. It's just so hard to believe. We are only in the beginning storms with these significant rallies from 10 to 20 dollars. I will not be surprised to see prices from hundreds to thousands in the coming months.

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

What are you going to do with your Bitcoin wealth once your coins hit upwards of $10,000 a pop?

Even though this post was made five years ago, I still believe that bitcoin has a future.Its value will go up probably as high as $10,000. I regret when I didn't know about it years ago because I became interested in it this year only but still I believe that I will still be one of the new wealthy elite because bitcoin is still in its childhood stage. Maybe in 5-10 years time from now, the target price of $10,000 will be hit.

Maybe yes maybe not, but the thing is that we have to own by then 20-30 btc to consider our selfs the new wealthy elites!

Yes if you want to consider yourself as a rich person with bitcoin then you should hold more number of coins, so even if price doesn't goes too high, more coins will take best care of you.

[Denker]

I disagree with you sir that was a false statement that you have made.

How do you know?
I think back in the days when OP made that statement he seemed to know what he is talking about.
At least he understood how much power this invention, Bitcoin, will have.
When OP made this thread (5th of June 2011) the price of BTC was $18, right in the middle of the first bubble Bitcoin has seen.
Round about 5 years later we were at $630 to $650 and dropped due to the Bitfinex hack.
That's an increase of more than 3000%!!
And because of the fact that OP never has given any timeframe I would say wait another 10 years, which includes 2 more halvings, and he may have proven you being right.

[johnnyyash]

I bought bitcoin today, to my surprise i saw that the exchange rate has gone high..more money or profit...in the future thinks it will continue to go high..so once bought has to be kept.. Cause surely it will go high in exchange rate..confidence of its I much...

[blackjackboss]

Anon OP and no profile shows, why this happen? Is he a ghost?

Precisely, OP was a prophet and went to the Heaven so his account disappeared forever??

[JayJuanGee]

http://astrohacker.com/ahc/bitcoin-is-the-economic-singularity/

After reading this, the scale of black market and digital economies and the effect Bitcoin will have on them I am pretty certain we are going to be very wealthy men -- even with a sum as small as 10 Bitcoins. It's just so hard to believe. We are only in the beginning storms with these significant rallies from 10 to 20 dollars. I will not be surprised to see prices from hundreds to thousands in the coming months.

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

What are you going to do with your Bitcoin wealth once your coins hit upwards of $10,000 a pop?

Even though this post was made five years ago, I still believe that bitcoin has a future.Its value will go up probably as high as $10,000. I regret when I didn't know about it years ago because I became interested in it this year only but still I believe that I will still be one of the new wealthy elite because bitcoin is still in its childhood stage. Maybe in 5-10 years time from now, the target price of $10,000 will be hit.

Maybe yes maybe not, but the thing is that we have to own by then 20-30 btc to consider our selfs the new wealthy elites!

When Op wrote this post, BTC prices were spiking from around $1 in early 2011 to $32 in mid 2011, and then returned to $5 prices.  There were folks who owned well over 10k btc at average prices below $10 each.

Of course, we have to deal with the price that we currently have in front of us in the upper $500s to establish our accumulation of bitcion strategies, and acquiring as many bitcoins as we reasonably can do would be a prudent strategy.  Nonetheless, I have my doubts about whether 20-30 btc is going to be enough BTC to put any of us objectively as a new wealthy elite, even though it has the potential to put many of us in very decent financial positions. 

Of course, depending on the cost of living in the area of the world that you live will affect the level of your eliteness.

On the other hand, if bitcoin rises to $500k or more per BTC, then 20-30 BTC is going to put in most of us in a decent position to proclaim at least some semblance of new wealthy elite status, gentlemen.

[Blazin8888]

Bitcoin was the first decentralized digital cash - the first working one. Satoshi provided the Open Ledger blockchain knowing this would be adopted by the "mainstream" i.e. banks, LE, investors/speculators. - People using BTC in the future will not mind being public. Maybe BTC will be a way of showing your wealth in the future. Each family may have a "family BTC address" - you could keep family savings in BTC - day to day cash may end up being something else. It could very well end up being XMR. Imagine when you get paid by your boss- will you want to give him your BTC address ?...XMR solves that issue and many others...Cryptonote is a brilliant whitepaper. Its based on many early works and protocols and takes into consideration several issues raised formerly. Below is the list of most important papers and events that have influenced CryptoNote:

1983 – Blind signatures described by David Chaum
1997 – HashCash (an instance of a proof-of-work system) invented by Adam Back
2001 – Ron Rivest, Adi Shamir, and Yael Tauman proposed ring signatures to the cryptographic community
2004 – Patrick P. Tsang and Victor K. proposed using the ring signature system for voting and electronic cash
2008 – Bitcoin whitepaper published by Satoshi Nakamoto
2011 – An Analysis of Anonymity in the Bitcoin System, Fergal Reid and Martin Harrigan
2012 – Destination Address Anonymity in Bitcoin (one-time addresses in CryptoNote).

Interesting articles for Crypto heads:

1. http://www.wired.com/1994/12/emoney/

2. http://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/money/nsamint/nsamint.htm

3. http://www.nytimes.com/1994/12/31/us/computer-jokes-and-threats-ignite-debate-on-anonymity.html?pagewanted=all

4. http://osaka.law.miami.edu/~froomkin/articles/cfp97.htm

5. http://www.cs.utah.edu/~kmay/look/digital/Laundry.htm

6. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/1997/0908/6005172a.html  -"There is another dimension to the spread of crypto. The same mathematical tricks used to encode a message can be run in reverse, to generate a so-called digital signature. This is a computer stamp of authenticity. It can be used to prove that an electronic document originated with a particular sender, such as a bank depositor or a bank officer. Assemble a few digital signatures in a clever fashion and you have created a mechanism for digital cash;a system of electronic payments akin to Visa or MasterCard but with the added feature that it can be made anonymous." - FORBES 1997

[DomesticTrader]

Is that....Mark Karpelès?

I lol'd
If they hit 10k a pop I'll buy my own island just so I can call the capital bitcity, the economy would run on bitcoins. But to be realistic i dont think it will hit 10k

[Dudeperfect]

http://astrohacker.com/ahc/bitcoin-is-the-economic-singularity/

After reading this, the scale of black market and digital economies and the effect Bitcoin will have on them I am pretty certain we are going to be very wealthy men -- even with a sum as small as 10 Bitcoins. It's just so hard to believe. We are only in the beginning storms with these significant rallies from 10 to 20 dollars. I will not be surprised to see prices from hundreds to thousands in the coming months.

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

What are you going to do with your Bitcoin wealth once your coins hit upwards of $10,000 a pop?

So some of us are reading this after 6 years, Are we late? NO.

I believe that bitcoin has a potential of transforming the way we use to transact and it would have its impact on all over the world, this is just a beginning and in next few decades, it will not only grow in the terms of price but also in the terms of user base and adaptability. So 6 years are always better than few decades, yes we can call ourselves early adapters.

[llildur]

My gut feeling tells me that we can see some crazy action in this last quarter of 2016 then the ship never come back to the shore  , even now is a good time to put some fiat in BTC     

[Pitchblackroom]

Holy moley, the OP from this thread was 5 years ago. There must of been some people who were part of this community back then who actually made some serious money from this.

The wealthy elite must of seriously started appearing after the first big bubble in 2013 winter and the people who cashed out then must of been set. Now there 2nd elite group is starting to form now with the recent rises

[swogerino]

Holy moley, the OP from this thread was 5 years ago. There must of been some people who were part of this community back then who actually made some serious money from this.

The wealthy elite must of seriously started appearing after the first big bubble in 2013 winter and the people who cashed out then must of been set. Now there 2nd elite group is starting to form now with the recent rises

It is rising but many have a hard time believing it and say that it will fall hard soon like it always has in recent months.
Can this upward trend keep it up until December? Too early to tell at this point.
But if it does then alot of people who saw this coming are cashing out now and banking a lot of money in the process.