America's new debt ceiling - $19,600,000,000,000

[jubalix]

we are already in hyper inflation, notice cost of living going up alot, exponentially.

Sigh...

I assure you, this is not the case.

"The latest inflation rate for the United States is 0.0% (unchanged) through the 12 months ended September 2015 as published by the US government on October 15, 2015."

Similar things in the UK too, we actually were in deflation for a short while. We are definitely nowhere near hyper inflation, we are infinitely closer to deflation itself.

sure the official interest rate looks low, but govs politically cannot move that up so much. They however are into QE and similar in a massive way which is hyper inflation.

Look at the house price increase in alot of countries, it has gone 100% in the last year or two. Where that's extra money coming from, well wages did not go up, so it through money printing via debt instruments such as loans. 99% of people simply do not understand the money printing part of the inflation equation.

Look at the costs of goods and services going up much much more than inflation of 2% or whatever it is.

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[jaysabi]

we are already in hyper inflation, notice cost of living going up alot, exponentially.

Sigh...

I assure you, this is not the case.

"The latest inflation rate for the United States is 0.0% (unchanged) through the 12 months ended September 2015 as published by the US government on October 15, 2015."

Similar things in the UK too, we actually were in deflation for a short while. We are definitely nowhere near hyper inflation, we are infinitely closer to deflation itself.

I think those numbers are rigged.

The outpacing of robitics and automation caused deflation cannot be greater than the printed money that creates inflation.

So i think we are going to hyperinflation, not deflation.

If prices aren't hyper inflating, then we don't have hyperinflation. Does a gallon of milk cost the same today as it did yesterday? Then you don't have hyperinflation.

[OROBTC]

Or deflation FIRST, then hyperinflation after.  That is a common pattern seen in economic history.  And that scenario is my "working scenario", what I am trying to plan for.

And "they" get a chance to whack you both ways: your stuff is worth less in Round One (deflated), then when you start to hoard CA$H they whack your money in Round Two (hyperinflation).

It is important to remain vigilant and DIVERSIFIED!  Because this will not end well....

Avoid debt too, it's a killer.

Well that is not deflation what you describe. Many economists dont know the definition of what deflation is and i see this in economy shows as well to be mistaken.

What you describe is a pump & dump scheme, deflation is not that.



Deflation is when everything costs less , in parrelel with everything else.


You cant just make wages go down, and then print money to pump up the stock market, you cannot call that deflation. That is more like theft.

Deflation is not here yet.  By my "working definition", deflation is a scarcity of money, where prices do indeed go down.  Deflation may very well arrive if interest rates go up, banks accounts are seized or robbed (Bail-In), stock market crash, and/or other causes.

Wages can indeed go down in a deflation, see the 1930s in the USA.  "Deflation" of another sort happened in the USA from about 1880 - 1910, as technology came along and LOWERED prices of consumer goods.  In that case, "deflation" was a good thing.

Typically, inflation/hyperinflation happens AFTER a deflation, when the authorities get scared...

Deflation means different things to different people.

[OrientA]

sure the official interest rate looks low, but govs politically cannot move that up so much. They however are into QE and similar in a massive way which is hyper inflation.

Look at the house price increase in alot of countries, it has gone 100% in the last year or two. Where that's extra money coming from, well wages did not go up, so it through money printing via debt instruments such as loans. 99% of people simply do not understand the money printing part of the inflation equation.

Look at the costs of goods and services going up much much more than inflation of 2% or whatever it is.

The price of housing has risen a lot in many countries. But the inflation figure reported is very low. That is because house price is not included in the price index, only the maintenance cost is included. So the inflation figure is lower than we feel.

[RustyNomad]

sure the official interest rate looks low, but govs politically cannot move that up so much. They however are into QE and similar in a massive way which is hyper inflation.

Look at the house price increase in alot of countries, it has gone 100% in the last year or two. Where that's extra money coming from, well wages did not go up, so it through money printing via debt instruments such as loans. 99% of people simply do not understand the money printing part of the inflation equation.

Look at the costs of goods and services going up much much more than inflation of 2% or whatever it is.

The price of housing has risen a lot in many countries. But the inflation figure reported is very low. That is because house price is not included in the price index, only the maintenance cost is included. So the inflation figure is lower than we feel.

I read an interesting article the other day in regards to inflation and why the inflation figures that are reported are flawed and or not correct. The article specifically dealt with food inflation.

It essentially boiled down to the fact that many manufacturers changed the packaging of their products while at the same time decreasing the content of the item while the price stayed the same or only increased slightly. So [just an example] you might have been able to buy say a 750ml bottle of some kind of sauce for say $2 a year back. Today that same sauce is now in a 700ml bottle and the price is say $2.10.

So according to the inflation data where these products are monitored the price went up from $2.00 to $2.10 so an increase of 5%. But this is not a true reflection of the actual price increase. Before the sauce worked out at $0.0026 per ml while at the $2.10 price it's now $0.003 per ml which gives you an actual true price increase of 15% instead of 5%.

[RealBitcoin]

Deflation is not here yet.  By my "working definition", deflation is a scarcity of money, where prices do indeed go down.  Deflation may very well arrive if interest rates go up, banks accounts are seized or robbed (Bail-In), stock market crash, and/or other causes.

Wages can indeed go down in a deflation, see the 1930s in the USA.  "Deflation" of another sort happened in the USA from about 1880 - 1910, as technology came along and LOWERED prices of consumer goods.  In that case, "deflation" was a good thing.

Typically, inflation/hyperinflation happens AFTER a deflation, when the authorities get scared...

Deflation means different things to different people.

Yes, deflation for me is monetary deflation:  the supply of money shrinks. (in a keynesian system due to defaults, as the debt is the money itself)

In bitcoin we wont see that, we will see however price deflation, due to strenghtening: denominated things in bitcoin will shrink in price : both wages & expenditures.

We already see that: as bitcoin price went up, faucets pay out less, but advertising on faucets is also cheaper.

[DiamondCardz]

Yes, deflation for me is monetary deflation:  the supply of money shrinks. (in a keynesian system due to defaults, as the debt is the money itself)

In bitcoin we wont see that, we will see however price deflation, due to strenghtening: denominated things in bitcoin will shrink in price : both wages & expenditures.

We already see that: as bitcoin price went up, faucets pay out less, but advertising on faucets is also cheaper.

Uhh we almost definitely will see monetary deflation where the supply of money shrinks, Bitcoin being a deflationary currency is one of its critical foundations. Monetary deflation isn't as common in real life, if deflation does occur it is usually price deflation just due to a shrink of the economy and heavily reduced consumer spending.

[d0om]

America's new debt ceiling - $19,600,000,000,000 (thats in the trillions if you were not sure)

Thats $60,000 debt for every man, woman and child in the country.

Ticking timebomb waiting to blow, keeping the gold nicely polished waiting for the day

 
  
Can anyone extend this graph out?  At this insane exponential (possibly exponential²) growth, when will we hit a debt ceiling of 1 quadrillion?  I think it will happen much sooner than we expect, possibly as soon as 2030 at the current rate of growth.

Doubt it will go that high, its already way past the unsustainable point as is. Also seriously doubt whether most of that debt will ever be paid back. The central banks bargain on the economy growing itself out of the debt but cannot see that happening. Not sure how they are going to get it sorted out, all I know is that something big is on its way and it ain't going to be a picnic.

Also, don't forget about Europe, Draghi is trying his level best to catch up on his own chart, don't like being left behind.
 

Here a nice comparison between the two.

Shit, how did we spend so much in 2016? I mean, 2017 wasn't exactly a parade either.

[RealBitcoin]

Yes, deflation for me is monetary deflation:  the supply of money shrinks. (in a keynesian system due to defaults, as the debt is the money itself)

In bitcoin we wont see that, we will see however price deflation, due to strenghtening: denominated things in bitcoin will shrink in price : both wages & expenditures.

We already see that: as bitcoin price went up, faucets pay out less, but advertising on faucets is also cheaper.

Uhh we almost definitely will see monetary deflation where the supply of money shrinks, Bitcoin being a deflationary currency is one of its critical foundations. Monetary deflation isn't as common in real life, if deflation does occur it is usually price deflation just due to a shrink of the economy and heavily reduced consumer spending.

Bitcoin's money supply doesnt shrink, it grows in a logarithmic curve and it stops at 20,999,999,9769 BTC

Only the rate of inflation decreases, that is not =/= to deflation.

Keynesianists like to say that rate of inflation decrease is deflation, when its not. They are not familiar with the terms, and these are PHD economists.

[Meuh6879]

Shit, how did we spend so much in 2016? I mean, 2017 wasn't exactly a parade either.

It's not you ... or me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joITmEr4SjY

[DiamondCardz]

Yes, deflation for me is monetary deflation:  the supply of money shrinks. (in a keynesian system due to defaults, as the debt is the money itself)

In bitcoin we wont see that, we will see however price deflation, due to strenghtening: denominated things in bitcoin will shrink in price : both wages & expenditures.

We already see that: as bitcoin price went up, faucets pay out less, but advertising on faucets is also cheaper.

Uhh we almost definitely will see monetary deflation where the supply of money shrinks, Bitcoin being a deflationary currency is one of its critical foundations. Monetary deflation isn't as common in real life, if deflation does occur it is usually price deflation just due to a shrink of the economy and heavily reduced consumer spending.

Bitcoin's money supply doesnt shrink, it grows in a logarithmic curve and it stops at 20,999,999,9769 BTC

Only the rate of inflation decreases, that is not =/= to deflation.

Keynesianists like to say that rate of inflation decrease is deflation, when its not. They are not familiar with the terms, and these are PHD economists.

You're misunderstanding me here. Once all the blocks are mined, we will definitely see a shrink in the money supply, but that is due to the users and things such as coins being destroyed and lost. There's no way for us to get around that. We will definitely have deflation once blocks stop giving BTC rewards.

[jaysabi]

Yes, deflation for me is monetary deflation:  the supply of money shrinks. (in a keynesian system due to defaults, as the debt is the money itself)

In bitcoin we wont see that, we will see however price deflation, due to strenghtening: denominated things in bitcoin will shrink in price : both wages & expenditures.

We already see that: as bitcoin price went up, faucets pay out less, but advertising on faucets is also cheaper.

Uhh we almost definitely will see monetary deflation where the supply of money shrinks, Bitcoin being a deflationary currency is one of its critical foundations. Monetary deflation isn't as common in real life, if deflation does occur it is usually price deflation just due to a shrink of the economy and heavily reduced consumer spending.

Bitcoin's money supply doesnt shrink, it grows in a logarithmic curve and it stops at 20,999,999,9769 BTC

Only the rate of inflation decreases, that is not =/= to deflation.

Keynesianists like to say that rate of inflation decrease is deflation, when its not. They are not familiar with the terms, and these are PHD economists.

There will be deflation any time coins are unrecoverable due to lost keys or death of owners who leave no contingency for private keys in their estate planning. Once the last fraction of a bitcoin is minted, there is guaranteed deflation unless you're taking the position that a private key will never be lost under any circumstance. (I personally wouldn't bet on that.)

[BillyBobZorton]

Yes, deflation for me is monetary deflation:  the supply of money shrinks. (in a keynesian system due to defaults, as the debt is the money itself)

In bitcoin we wont see that, we will see however price deflation, due to strenghtening: denominated things in bitcoin will shrink in price : both wages & expenditures.

We already see that: as bitcoin price went up, faucets pay out less, but advertising on faucets is also cheaper.

Uhh we almost definitely will see monetary deflation where the supply of money shrinks, Bitcoin being a deflationary currency is one of its critical foundations. Monetary deflation isn't as common in real life, if deflation does occur it is usually price deflation just due to a shrink of the economy and heavily reduced consumer spending.

Bitcoin's money supply doesnt shrink, it grows in a logarithmic curve and it stops at 20,999,999,9769 BTC

Only the rate of inflation decreases, that is not =/= to deflation.

Keynesianists like to say that rate of inflation decrease is deflation, when its not. They are not familiar with the terms, and these are PHD economists.

It actually does, beside the inevitable lost of coins by accident (which will always happen statistically) you have to add in the fact that people are actually burning coins to shrink the supply. I've heard some whale stories sending BTC to dead addresses just to make them basically disappear  (it's the equivalent of an eternal holder)

[RealBitcoin]

There will be deflation any time coins are unrecoverable due to lost keys or death of owners who leave no contingency for private keys in their estate planning. Once the last fraction of a bitcoin is minted, there is guaranteed deflation unless you're taking the position that a private key will never be lost under any circumstance. (I personally wouldn't bet on that.)

Hard to measure, and hard to prove, he might burn it for 100 years, and then the grandchildren find the priv key in a secret box, which the owner forgot about.

I`d not say this is deflation. This is shrinking money velocity, the effects are identical, but its not called deflation.

I dont blame you even academic economists dont know the difference.

For it to be deflation, the supply has to really shrink, by protocol. So you would see 21m coins, then 20m, then 19m and so on...

So bitcoin is not in deflation. It just has a shrinking money velocity

[americanpegasus]

Might want to update the topic title OP. 
 
Zero Hedge has a great article out about how the real debt might be 3x what they are reporting, with no way to stop it from going further. 
 
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-08/us-debt-3-times-more-you-think-former-chief-us-accountant-warns-americans-have-lost-

[zenitzz]

Might want to update the topic title OP. 
 
Zero Hedge has a great article out about how the real debt might be 3x what they are reporting, with no way to stop it from going further. 
 
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-08/us-debt-3-times-more-you-think-former-chief-us-accountant-warns-americans-have-lost-

Debt & usury are for the rabble. Letting it get out of hand = the peasants are at your mercy. Money isn't real, it's stale, mouldy crumbs for pigeon people. You can always just start a world war to wipe clean all social memory of how it all came to pass & 'reset' your system of control. Remember to always give those pigeons a 'dream' to live for after a gorefest though & be super nice to them, telling them how important they are, otherwise they *might* catch on.

[Coxe]

It actually does, beside the inevitable lost of coins by accident (which will always happen statistically) you have to add in the fact that people are actually burning coins to shrink the supply. I've heard some whale stories sending BTC to dead addresses just to make them basically disappear  (it's the equivalent of an eternal holder)

If I have too many coins, I will just hold it. I will not burn it to reduce the supply. It is my coin, if I burn it, it will just increase the value of other people's coin. The total value of my coin will not rise much after the burning due to the reduced number.

[jaysabi]

There will be deflation any time coins are unrecoverable due to lost keys or death of owners who leave no contingency for private keys in their estate planning. Once the last fraction of a bitcoin is minted, there is guaranteed deflation unless you're taking the position that a private key will never be lost under any circumstance. (I personally wouldn't bet on that.)

Hard to measure, and hard to prove, he might burn it for 100 years, and then the grandchildren find the priv key in a secret box, which the owner forgot about.

I`d not say this is deflation. This is shrinking money velocity, the effects are identical, but its not called deflation.

I dont blame you even academic economists dont know the difference.

For it to be deflation, the supply has to really shrink, by protocol. So you would see 21m coins, then 20m, then 19m and so on...

So bitcoin is not in deflation. It just has a shrinking money velocity

Not hard to prove, it's mathematically certain unless you're taking the unreasonable position that no fraction of a bitcoin will ever be lost after the minting phase of bitcoin is complete. It's already happened, and will continue to happen. Once the last bitcoin is minted, that's not "shrinking money velocity" (that term doesn't even mean anything, but I assume you mean decelerating inflation), that's deflation, which is falling prices (often) caused by a shrinking money supply.

[jaysabi]

Yes, deflation for me is monetary deflation:  the supply of money shrinks. (in a keynesian system due to defaults, as the debt is the money itself)

In bitcoin we wont see that, we will see however price deflation, due to strenghtening: denominated things in bitcoin will shrink in price : both wages & expenditures.

We already see that: as bitcoin price went up, faucets pay out less, but advertising on faucets is also cheaper.

Uhh we almost definitely will see monetary deflation where the supply of money shrinks, Bitcoin being a deflationary currency is one of its critical foundations. Monetary deflation isn't as common in real life, if deflation does occur it is usually price deflation just due to a shrink of the economy and heavily reduced consumer spending.

Bitcoin's money supply doesnt shrink, it grows in a logarithmic curve and it stops at 20,999,999,9769 BTC

Only the rate of inflation decreases, that is not =/= to deflation.

Keynesianists like to say that rate of inflation decrease is deflation, when its not. They are not familiar with the terms, and these are PHD economists.

It actually does, beside the inevitable lost of coins by accident (which will always happen statistically) you have to add in the fact that people are actually burning coins to shrink the supply. I've heard some whale stories sending BTC to dead addresses just to make them basically disappear  (it's the equivalent of an eternal holder)

This is counter-intuitive. What's the logic here? It seems highly unlikely that any value gains in your holdings will be greater than the value destroyed by 'burning' coins. The same effect could be realized by just keeping control of the coins and never spending them. Either way, the coins are out of the market but control is maintained by the owner, so there is no actual unrecoverable loss of assets. After all, the market doesn't differentiate between coins that are sent to an unrecoverable address and coins that are controllable but never actually spent. Whoever told you this story is either blowing smoke, or a complete idiot.

[RealBitcoin]

Not hard to prove, it's mathematically certain unless you're taking the unreasonable position that no fraction of a bitcoin will ever be lost after the minting phase of bitcoin is complete. It's already happened, and will continue to happen. Once the last bitcoin is minted, that's not "shrinking money velocity" (that term doesn't even mean anything, but I assume you mean decelerating inflation), that's deflation, which is falling prices (often) caused by a shrinking money supply.

I know that a permalock is possible, I`m not denyit it. And I know that eventually, all bitcoins will be locked (if the lock is irreversible, then probability tells us that in infinity all bitcoin will be locked)

However I`m talking about now, and how can it be definitively proven that an address is really locked or not. It can't.


So the only way to measure this is from the money velocity viewpoint, by looking at the transaction volume daily, and you will see that it will shrink eventually.