Petrodollar to be substituted with goldbarrel?

[deisik]

In the topics dedicated to gold and its future many folks ask why CBs of all major countries are still hoarding gold. Now that the end of the petrodollar era is near, the answer seems to be pretty obvious. Oil, a key economic commodity in today's world, will be traded for gold after the petrodollar system's eventual failure and demise...

What's now happening in the Middle East is a prelude to this process

[1713490662]

1713490662

[cutesakura]

If historical norms are anything to go by, then something is definitely off-kilter with oil and gold markets. Historically, it has taken about 15 barrels of crude oil to buy an ounce of gold. Today that ratio is more like 22:1, due to oil prices touching five-year lows on Monday, while gold, in contrast, has stayed stubbornly high and, perversely, managed to fly in the face of just about everything else by staging an $18/oz rally on Monday.

There are many analysts that believe the greater risk to gold prices is to the downside than to the upside. Barclays’ Suki Cooper is one of them and reiterated the downside view on Monday in a research note. Cooper belongs to the camp of those believing a rise in US interest rates will happen sooner, rather than later, despite the Federal Reserve continuing to make no such indication in its policy statements to date. But a rise in interest rates is likely to serve only to strengthen the dollar further.

Conversely, the gold bugs would have us believe that, while the short-term prospects for gold prices point to weakness, the US’s inability to tackle its deficit and debt, and the implications for the broader economy, should support gold prices. The gold bugs keep talking about gold being the great store or preserver of wealth. But anyone that bought gold in the January 21, 1980 peak of $850/oz never made a profit, if allowing for inflation. They may have gotten close to achieving a profit if they had sold at the peak of August 2011, when gold prices rose briefly above $1,950/oz, but to really make a profit, allowing for inflation, they would have had to sell for about $2,200/oz.

Given the strength of the dollar, which has pushed most dollar-denominated commodities’ prices lower, including crude oil, gold ought to be under some downward pressure, but a looming Greek general election — the outcome of which is not entirely clear — has triggered a renaissance for the “Greece has no future in the eurozone” theory. Greece is roiling from a period of unprecedented austerity and one of the political forces in the country — the far-left Syriza Party — is campaigning on a promise of cancelling, renegotiating, or reneging on Greece’s sovereign debt, which could potentially give rise to a eurozone sovereign debt crisis that will make the previous one seem like a relative walk in the park.

Gold usually has an inverse relationship to the dollar, especially when it comes to the euro/dollar exchange rate. The previous eurozone sovereign debt crisis weakened the euro against the dollar. Yet, on several occasions, gold prices went up when the dollar rose against the euro, because gold was seen as a safe haven from the euro. The same thing pushed gold prices higher on Monday.

To prove history right on the oil/gold ratio, the logical conclusion might be that something has to give: either crude oil prices have to rise, or gold prices have to fall, or a bit of both, to restore the historical 15:1 ratio. So far, gold seems to be finding solid support at the $1,200/oz level, while crude oil, basis front-month NYMEX, dipped below $50/barrel on Monday, and only just about managed to settle above the $50 mark. All the talk seems to be of crude remaining under downward pressure.

Has the world changed in the last couple of months to the point that the old 15:1 ratio is no longer relevant? Perhaps only an historian will be able to answer that in a couple of decades’ time. But consider this: Russia is exporting more crude than at any time since before the collapse of the Soviet Union — desperate for petrodollars — even though in doing so, it is contributing to lower crude oil prices and adding to its enormous economic woes caused by sanctions from the EU and the US. Additionally, the US is becoming less reliant on crude oil imports, probably the main reason why OPEC chose not to cut production at its last meeting, in the hope of pushing oil prices lower in an attempt to render as many US shale plays as possible uneconomic, so that OPEC members can ultimately reap the long-term rewards.

It was not so long ago that President George W. Bush told us that the US was addicted to oil, leading to a widely held view that the US would forever be dependent on imports for most of its energy needs. From that perspective, the world does seem to have changed. The US may still be addicted to oil, but it is, at least, producing more of its own vice.

Periods of sustained low oil prices, result in widespread, sustainable economic growth; at least, they have in the past. So if we are in for a sustained period of low oil prices and history repeats itself, then maybe the widespread economic growth that the low oil prices generate will put the necessary pressures on gold and oil prices to restore the historical 15:1 ratio.

[zimmah]

I believe Qaddafi wanted to trade oil for gold, and that angered america so much they forged an excuse to attack his country and get him killed.

But with how it's currently going, USA cant maintain their petrodollar position anymore, and I think trading oil for gold will happen.

Maybe if we're lucky oil for bitcoin might happen alongside oil for gold, but i consider this to be unlikely at this point, because bitcoin isn't popular enough and big enough yet.

In the future however it might happen. If bitcoin is the exclusive oil currency (petrobitcoin) it would be great for the bitcoin economy and also for the real economy, but even if it's used alongside gold it's still good.

[deisik]

I believe Qaddafi wanted to trade oil for gold, and that angered america so much they forged an excuse to attack his country and get him killed.

But with how it's currently going, USA cant maintain their petrodollar position anymore, and I think trading oil for gold will happen.

Maybe if we're lucky oil for bitcoin might happen alongside oil for gold, but i consider this to be unlikely at this point, because bitcoin isn't popular enough and big enough yet.

That part I intentionally omitted, so as not to raise futile debates

Regarding trading oil for anything but the US dollar, China is now buying oil from Russia for Renminbi (petroyuan, wtf). In May, Russia one-upped the Saudis in China, and, though temporarily, had become Beijing's No. 1 crude oil supplier. What kind of pain in Obama's ass this should be...

It is just a small detail in the bigger picture that reveals the dramatic changes that are happening right now

[EastKing]

PetroYuan or PetroBitcoin is the future. China will use more oil than America for the same per capita consumption. However, China does not have strong military.

[ridery99]

PetroBitcoin is the future.

Nerd dreams 

[Febo]

On my opinion right now the problem is not with what to buy Oil, but who to sell Oil. Needs for Oil are increasing much slower then predictions. Production is increasing quite steady, and there is no signs that will end in the near future, with Iran trying to get back on track.
Oil producers will take just anything just to get rid of cheap Oil to cover their hungry national budgets.

I know what i wrote is for the near future, and will change as soon next global economic crisis that had not begin yet ends.

[EastKing]

PetroBitcoin is the future.

Nerd dreams 

Maybe in 50 years, petro will not be widely used as new kinds of energy replace it. So there will be new PetroBitcoin.

[deisik]

On my opinion right now the problem is not with what to buy Oil, but who to sell Oil. Needs for Oil are increasing much slower then predictions. Production is increasing quite steady, and there is no signs that will end in the near future, with Iran trying to get back on track.
Oil producers will take just anything just to get rid of cheap Oil to cover their hungry national budgets.

The main question, though, is what are they going to sell their oil for. For example, Iran has been trying to trade oil for Euro. Oil being sold en masse for anything other than the US dollar effectively undermines its positions...

[pereira4]

Some say ETH is the oil of the future, BTC is the gold of the future.

In any case, the oil bubble will eventually collapse, the electronic motors for cars are getting so damn awesome. Formula E is great, the cars acceleration is insane, even tho I still see the formula 1 remaining active for nostalgia's sake. But day to day usage, less and less oil cars will be seen on the street in the following decades.

[EastKing]

On my opinion right now the problem is not with what to buy Oil, but who to sell Oil. Needs for Oil are increasing much slower then predictions. Production is increasing quite steady, and there is no signs that will end in the near future, with Iran trying to get back on track.
Oil producers will take just anything just to get rid of cheap Oil to cover their hungry national budgets.

The main question, though, is what are they going to sell their oil for. For example, Iran has been trying to trade oil for Euro. Oil being sold en masse for anything other than the US dollar effectively undermines its positions...

Iran should sell the oil for Chinese Yuan. China is the biggest oil importer now. China is still rising.

[deisik]

On my opinion right now the problem is not with what to buy Oil, but who to sell Oil. Needs for Oil are increasing much slower then predictions. Production is increasing quite steady, and there is no signs that will end in the near future, with Iran trying to get back on track.
Oil producers will take just anything just to get rid of cheap Oil to cover their hungry national budgets.

The main question, though, is what are they going to sell their oil for. For example, Iran has been trying to trade oil for Euro. Oil being sold en masse for anything other than the US dollar effectively undermines its positions...

Iran should sell the oil for Chinese Yuan. China is the biggest oil importer now. China is still rising.

Whatever, as long as an oil supplier sells oil for any currency but the US dollar, their oil is essentially removed from the oil supply traded for dollars, i.e. more dollars would be chasing less oil, and the petrodollar recycling system would be on a meager diet...

[neurotypical]

Even if the end game of oil is collapsing, im sure we will still see great gains out of it. The industry is insanely huge. The volatility will remain high, big profit to be made on there, but I think we will see more of an uptrend than a downtrend in the following months. Of course things change so quick nowadays that you are never safe with your predictions. My only predictions where I feel comfortable with: Bitcoin goes to moon in the very long term, oil collapses in the very long term.

[Callahan]

PetroBitcoin is the future.

Nerd dreams  

Good dreams and will be possible in a 10 years

Even if the end game of oil is collapsing, im sure we will still see great gains out of it. The industry is insanely huge. The volatility will remain high, big profit to be made on there, but I think we will see more of an uptrend than a downtrend in the following months. Of course things change so quick nowadays that you are never safe with your predictions. My only predictions where I feel comfortable with: Bitcoin goes to moon in the very long term, oil collapses in the very long term.

Im comfortable too.
what is long time for you?

[deisik]

Oil is definitely losing its strength and I don't know if the US will even peg their dollar to anything after the petrodollar.

How's that? The prices of petro going down are not a sign of oil losing its strength and significance itself. Did it all of a sudden stop being lifeblood of the real economy?

[Slark]

PetroYuan or PetroBitcoin is the future. China will use more oil than America for the same per capita consumption. However, China does not have strong military.

China does not have strong army? Are you kidding? Their army is 2nd in the world right not. And probably will be first in matter of years now.
Soon they will have everything (top army adn economy) to back up yuan and petroYuan will be real.

[deisik]

Oil is definitely losing its strength and I don't know if the US will even peg their dollar to anything after the petrodollar.

How's that? The prices of petro going down are not a sign of oil losing its strength and significance itself. Did it all of a sudden stop being lifeblood of the real economy?

Supply has been up and demand down to growing efficiency and if it follows every other power source we will find something better and it will be left behind.

Falling prices only contribute to the wider use of oil by outpricing its alternatives. Until (and unless) there are major break-throughs (like real cold fusion or room-temperature superconductors), nothing threatens oil to any significant degree...

[deisik]

PetroYuan or PetroBitcoin is the future. China will use more oil than America for the same per capita consumption. However, China does not have strong military.

China does not have strong army? Are you kidding? Their army is 2nd in the world right not. And probably will be first in matter of years now.
Soon they will have everything (top army adn economy) to back up yuan and petroYuan will be real.

Chinese military is weak. Personally, I wouldn't put them even into the top 3 strongest (toughest) armies. Japan would knock them back into the Stone Age (again) if they were given such an opportunity...

[BobK71]

But anyone that bought gold in the January 21, 1980 peak of $850/oz never made a profit, if allowing for inflation. They may have gotten close to achieving a profit if they had sold at the peak of August 2011, when gold prices rose briefly above $1,950/oz, but to really make a profit, allowing for inflation, they would have had to sell for about $2,200/oz.

Serious authors have published detailed evidence of central bank suppression of gold "market" prices by derivative trading in recent decades.  What this means is that the central banks' own assessment is that suppressing gold is necessary to support fiat currencies.

This is the essence of the gold standard.  The difference is that the classical gold standard suppressed gold by selling gold at the official price to any holder of paper currency.  Today's gold standard is hidden and more flexible, and saves embarrassment for the authoritis as currency goes through a rolling devaluation over the decades from $35 to the $1000 price range.

It is possible that the central banks allow gold to rise past the new target point, and then stage a revaluation of currency up, back to the target point, to send a message to gold bugs.  This happened during both of the major post-Bretton-Woods devaluations (to the $300 range and to the $1000 range respectively.)

The four-century-long view of the modern monetary system is the gradual loss of control by the authorities to saver sentiment in favor of gold.  The Dutch Golden Age saw a totally secure peg to specie, that went beyond the economic decline of the Netherlands (the agent of decay was public debt.)  Britain ended up owning only 3% of the gold required to redeem its total paper issue on the Eve of the First World War, and was forced to bow out from hegemony.  The US was forced to devalue the dollar explicitly by more than 50% during the Great Depression, and then close the gold window in 1971 to avoid running out of gold.

Now the gold standard has gone underground, with a rolling devaluation over four decades with the dollar losing 97% of its value against gold.  Gold holders are also increasingly aware of the need to hold physical gold (thus making derivative-based suppression more difficult.)

The only bad scenario that I see for gold is, for whatever reason, a successful and drastic increase of financial repression.

[EastKing]

PetroYuan or PetroBitcoin is the future. China will use more oil than America for the same per capita consumption. However, China does not have strong military.

China does not have strong army? Are you kidding? Their army is 2nd in the world right not. And probably will be first in matter of years now.
Soon they will have everything (top army adn economy) to back up yuan and petroYuan will be real.

Chinese military is weak. Personally, I wouldn't put them even into the top 3 strongest (toughest) armies. Japan would knock them back into the Stone Age (again) if they were given such an opportunity...

Maybe the number of military personnel is large. It is quite corruptive. It has not been in war for many decades. It will take many battles for it to grow strong.