Perhaps you were expecting a more debate oriented back and forth, I dunno. That's not what I'm here for, but I can oblige just so there are no loose ends, then we can be done.
It seems very unlikely you'll break even on your equipment for a long time. If you do, it will be because you didn't cash out until the exchange rate went up significantly.
You make no definition for "long time". Is 1 day a long time to you, or is 1 year a long time? No one knows what ROI will be, but the most likely scenarios projected by existing supply is 6 months, assuming price remains relatively stable. This is the same ROI most people figure for GPU purchases. So why this is a point of contention is beyond me. You can check this thread and others for calculations of TH coming online from ASICs in the near future to see if you agree with this or not, that is a separate discussion.
I think a lot of new miners (assuming they've read enough to understand what's going on) are counting on this eventuality. However, if your motivation is profit, it makes a lot more sense to buy directly and hold than to put yourself into a hole and hope the price goes up enough so that you get back to 0.
"This eventuality" =
Breaking even? Not sure what that even means.
The stale argument for buying coins rather than mining has been refuted ad nauseum, but we can go over it again. Buy coins, price goes down, you lose money. Buy coins, price stays the same, you have coins to either spend or enjoy holding. Buy coins, price goes up, you made a little profit, now you choose to sell or hold and hope for more up, speculation rules the day.
Mine coins, price goes down, mine more coins to break even / profit. Mine coins, price stays the same, reach 0 and begin to profit. Mine coins, price goes up, ROI shortened, profit sooner.
So great, both scenarios carry risk, both provide reward, there is no reason why one is superior to another that you've given. Seems a pointless discussion, given that people are interested at some level by mining, rather than trading.
I'm not really making any predictions about the future price. I'm saying that if you are counting on it going up significantly to break even, then it makes more sense to buy directly than to invest in ASICs. I'm also saying that if you're not counting on the price going up, you're not planning on breaking even anytime soon.
Addressed the bulk of this above, as you've just restated the point I had no interest in responding to before, as it carries little merit. The only thing I can add to this is that speculative trading on the short term, day-to-day or weekly swings is far riskier than mining. It would make more sense to warn people about the risks of day-trading, than to warn them against mining and suggest they participate in day-trading.
this is a very different situation than the move from CPU->GPU mining. There is both a significant technical and huge logistical barrier to entry with GPU mining - if you've been down that road then you're already aware of this. ASICs are a completely different animal. Not only will they require much less time, space, power - they have a much more limited availability than GPUs did, and at the moment, there is a large gap between the time you place an order and the time you'll receive it. The combination makes for a much less even playing field and an extremely hard-to-predict ROI at the time of order delivery.
I'm not sure I follow this one either. This is different because...? None of what follows supports this argument.
What are the logistical barriers to entry with GPU mining? Having a delivery man deliver your GPU? Putting it into the motherboard? There exists an extensive and well-established system crafted specifically to facilitate the creation, purchase and delivery of GPUs. Unless you are using logistics in some sense I'm not aware of. The technical barriers are not particularly significant either, you need to be basically computer literate, but if you are at the entry level of generating crypto-currency, I imagine you meet this requirement or can quickly do so.
If you are referring to large scale farms of scores of GPUs (which you completely fail to mention), then I suppose I can understand your statement as to difficulty, creating the infrastructure to support this is quite difficult, and this falls directly under my story about the overzealous GPU miner. Since this has been directly addressed I will not go into it further.
As to the second part, ASICs, since they require less time, space and power, that would all seem to suggest that it would REDUCE the difficulty of setting up a small, medium, or large sized mining farm. What is your point then? The difference between then and now is that it is easier to do now? This part makes little to no sense in context of "barrier to entry". Perhaps you mistyped something.
The limitation of availability makes them less available, I again don't see what that has to do with people overzealously purchasing them, or why they should rethink mining because of this. The only way this is a different situation than the limited availability of GPU hardware post bubble is that instead of people paying over inflated prices for second hand hardware in a desperate attempt to get
anything is that they will be blocked from purchasing any units at all. This in fact helps protect people with $$ signs in their eyes. Not sure why that is a negative factor again.
Delay of shipping is probably the only point worth addressing, as it is slightly different from the GPU situation, and I suppose deserves some thought for people. Those who are getting in early will reap huge rewards compared to those who get in later. If those who reaped early rewards rebuy in with those profits, it can suppress the expected return for later miners I suppose. However looking at the confirmation of early orders, the TH are spread amongst jalapenos and singles, such that it's clearly small time miners, who are not turning 1 minirig into 2 into 4 into 8, etc., driving difficulty into untouchable regions. Difficulty is likely to peg at around 33mil by the time people who order today receive their rigs, and will not do anything crazy like double in the following few months. ROI is always unknown, but it should be estimable.
I believe I addressed all your points, I hope this has assuaged whatever hurt you've accrued at being ignored. I'm not terribly interested in a reply, so we can end this here, as neither of us seems to feel that the other has provided any salient points of contention. Best of luck to you in your endeavors, see you around the forums.
